AFL Power Rankings 2014

[MrKK]

Even if one takes Roby's assumption that Adelaide are missing almost half of their best 22 at face value (I'd argue that apart from Walker and Crouch the rest of their absentees are bottom half of their 22 at best), surely the power rankings have to factor in the lack of depth to cover them as a result of the Tippett sanctions. And that's not going to get any better in the coming years as every other team's early rounders develop while the Crows are still trying to develop their rookie listers up to AFL standard.

 

[TedDougChris]

Hang on, we didn't win by 13 goals just so you could take our rightful spot off us. We worked hard for it.

We worked very hard to make sure that the umpires would give Cotchin, Reiwoldt, Vickery and Griffiths multiple undeserved shots at goal. Cotchin got 3 or 4 free shots in the first quarter alone - without any form of ducking involved whatsoever...... Morris, then Williams also had to push their backs dramatically into the hands of their opponents inside the F50 late in the game... This isn't easy to do.....

 

[JeddaB]

Sydney win and go down a spot..

Stop winning Sydney, and you could end up top 4 like Adelaide.
Dare to dream..

lol

 

[gothecrows]

Even if one takes Roby's assumption that Adelaide are missing almost half of their best 22 at face value (I'd argue that apart from Walker and Crouch the rest of their absentees are bottom half of their 22 at best), surely the power rankings have to factor in the lack of depth to cover them as a result of the Tippett sanctions. And that's not going to get any better in the coming years as every other team's early rounders develop while the Crows are still trying to develop their rookie listers up to AFL standard.

It's the same fallacy as the umpiring adjustment. Supposedly some teams are consistently being treated harshly by the umpires - if that's the case, then surely you'd have to question why, rather than just assuming that the umpiring should be perfect - maybe there is something this team is doing that is causing the discrepancy.

In any case, Walker, Crouch, Henderson, Otten, Lynch and Van Berlo would be in the best 22, along with Thompson, Grigg and Kerridge, who were all injured on the weekend.

 

[hazard]

Yep.... Adelaide will come good. Just you wait. 3 consecutive losses - no loss in ranking.

Port Adelaide.... Lose one game... By 7 points... To a team ranked higher... -loss of 2 places

Sure, Port may have beaten Adelaide by 9 goals, but Adelaide is obviously the better team because Roby.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Round 3
Running total $-1.43; total outlay $14

Hawthorn $1.73 WIN
Bulldogs $3.40 WIN
Adelaide $2.25 LOSS
Gold Coast $1.62 WIN
Collingwood $2.33 LOSS
West coast $1.02 WIN
GWS $1.30 WIN
North $2.10 WIN
Essendon $1.50 WIN

Did better than how I did in actually tipping... (got 4/9)

$1.73 + $3.40 + $1.62 + $1.02 + $1.30 + $2.10 + $1.50 = $12.67 = profit $3.67

Running total profit $2.24, total outlay $23 (about 10% profit)

 

[Air_Chester]

To be fair, Adelaide aside, it's not overly embarrassing this week.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Adelaide 4th and Sydney 5th before the round starts.
Sydney beat Adelaide by 10+ goals away from home.
Adelaide hold their spot, Sydney drop.

Never change Roby.

 

[Ochre]

I wonder if Roby knows that McLeod, Ricuitto, Edwards etc have all retired.

"Sure Adelaide aren't playing well, but when Tony Modra comes back in, you'll see why they are where they are"

 

[Inferno]

Adelaide 4th and Sydney 5th before the round starts.
Sydney beat Adelaide by 10+ goals away from home.
Adelaide hold their spot, Sydney drop.

Never change Roby.

Sydney beats 4th, loses spot to Gold Coast who beat 15th.

#Robylogic

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Any explanation on how Collingwood were robbed Roby?

 

[JD11]

Any explanation on how Collingwood were robbed Roby?

coz umpires. it's simple calculus, you wouldn't understand.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Roby resorting to using my cheap MS PAINT images...

 

[Crankyhawk]

Running total profit $2.24, total outlay $23 (about 10% profit)

Richmond $2.35
Carlton $1.13
Port $1.13
GWS $2.20
GC $4.00
Geelong $1.30
Sydney $1.38
St Kilda $2.20 (surely that's unders)
Freo $1.80

 

[Janus]

Yep.... Adelaide will come good. Just you wait. 3 consecutive losses - no loss in ranking.

Port Adelaide.... Lose one game... By 7 points... To a team ranked higher... -loss of 2 places

Not to mention Monfries gets injured halfway through the game, Schulz gets injured, Wingard gets injured (bad enough that he's going to miss this week)...but that doesn't count for Roby.

The idea that Adelaide can win the premiership this year has to be the biggest joke of these power rankings for mine.

 

[Roby]

Adelaide 4th and Sydney 5th before the round starts.
Sydney beat Adelaide by 10+ goals away from home.
Adelaide hold their spot, Sydney drop.

Never change Roby.

Adelaide lost points, Sydney gained points.

 

[Roby]

Not to mention Monfries gets injured halfway through the game, Schulz gets injured, Wingard gets injured (bad enough that he's going to miss this week)...but that doesn't count for Roby.

The idea that Adelaide can win the premiership this year has to be the biggest joke of these power rankings for mine.

They were counted and weighted. Port didn't lose any points this week, it's just that Essendon and Collingwood gained a significant amount of points this week and went ahead.

Hoping Port thrash the Lions this week for the betting tips but in the end I really don't care either way because ultimately the rankings sort themselves out.

 

[mad_monkey_j]

Adelaide lost points, Sydney gained points.

You should say whether teams lose or gain points next to their position on the ranking. Would make more sense.

 

[Roby]

Power Rankings betting tips for Round 4 - Going for and against the trend

Three teams have paid on the line every week so far this year; Saints, Geelong and Essendon. Both have come in underrated for different reasons, and while the rankings so far have underrated Essendon they certainly haven't underrated Saints. In fact the Saints haven't beaten the power rankings predicted line once this year. So much so that nearly three-quarters of profit from weekly bets has been because of the Saints as the general opinion in the pre-season was that they were favourites for the wooden spoon.

On the other hand Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton have yet to pay out on a line this year. With Carlton playing Melbourne this week, the rankings are putting their money on the Dees but only just, and that is including the minus weighting for Mitch Clark.

The best value bet this week is the Dogs who are up against GWS and due to the Giants' key outs.

Also last week represented the seventh week in a row the rankings have made profit. I know I said it was six but round one was a split round, so technically it's seven weeks and a new power rankings streak record.


GWS vs Western Bulldogs (-7.5) - $2.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Fremantle vs Essendon (-2.5) - $2 @ $1.9 Betstar

Gold Coast vs Hawthorn (-24.5) - $1.5 @ $1.962 Pinnacle

Geelong vs West Coast (-21.5) - $1.5 @ $1.862 Pinnacle

Adelaide vs St Kilda (+8.5) - $1.5 @ $1.90 TAB

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane (-35.5) - $1 @ $2.00 TopSport

Sydney vs North Melbourne (+18.5) - $0.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Carlton vs Melbourne (+37.5) - $0.5 @ $2 TopSport

Collingwood vs Richmond (+10.5) - $0.5 @ $1.85 Luxbet



Current fund: $27.135
Total staked for 2014: $17.85
Last week's betting tips. And here.

 

[Final Siren]

I would just like to take my hat off to the gentle beauty of how the 2013 Power Rankings thread has been locked and terminated at this post, in which Roby muses that the reason why the power rankings didn't correctly tip the grand finalists may be that reality was wrong.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Power Rankings betting tips for Round 4 - Going for and against the trend

Three teams have paid on the line every week so far this year; Saints, Geelong and Essendon. Both have come in underrated for different reasons, and while the rankings so far have underrated Essendon they certainly haven't underrated Saints. In fact the Saints haven't beaten the power rankings predicted line once this year. So much so that nearly three-quarters of profit from weekly bets has been because of the Saints as the general opinion in the pre-season was that they were favourites for the wooden spoon.

On the other hand Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton have yet to pay out on a line this year. With Carlton playing Melbourne this week, the rankings are putting their money on the Dees but only just, and that is including the minus weighting for Mitch Clark.

The best value bet this week is the Dogs who are up against GWS and due to the Giants' key outs.

Also last week represented the seventh week in a row the rankings have made profit. I know I said it was six but round one was a split round, so technically it's seven weeks and a new power rankings streak record.


GWS vs Western Bulldogs (-7.5) - $2.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Fremantle vs Essendon (-2.5) - $2 @ $1.9 Betstar

Gold Coast vs Hawthorn (-24.5) - $1.5 @ $1.962 Pinnacle

Geelong vs West Coast (-21.5) - $1.5 @ $1.862 Pinnacle

Adelaide vs St Kilda (+8.5) - $1.5 @ $1.90 TAB

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane (-35.5) - $1 @ $2.00 TopSport

Sydney vs North Melbourne (+18.5) - $0.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Carlton vs Melbourne (+37.5) - $0.5 @ $2 TopSport

Collingwood vs Richmond (+10.5) - $0.5 @ $1.85 Luxbet



Current fund: $27.135
Total staked for 2014: $17.85
Last week's betting tips. And here.

I just can't my head around betting on every game. Can't be good business. Surely there are games the rankings can't call with any kind of certainty.

 

[sTeeL]

Also betting based on "rankings" which have yet to be normalised for the new season seems wrong

I expect Essendon to win comfortably vs Fremantle despite your ranking predictions.

 

[Mantastic]

I just can't my head around betting on every game. Can't be good business. Surely there are games the rankings can't call with any kind of certainty.

He doesn't bet every game, every round, only when discrepancies are found between his rankings and bookmakers lines. Earlier in the season there tends to be more discrepancies as everybody is trying to get a read on teams. Later in the year you'll see less bets.

 

[Lensen]

He doesn't bet every game, every round, only when discrepancies are found between his rankings and bookmakers lines. Earlier in the season there tends to be more discrepancies as everybody is trying to get a read on teams. Later in the year you'll see less bets.

no, he's betting every game this year. as roby said

The more bets, the more money the rankings make.

 

[SuperSub17]

Also last week represented the seventh week in a row the rankings have made profit. I know I said it was six but round one was a split round, so technically it's seven weeks and a new power rankings streak record.

Selective stats FTW