AFL Power Rankings 2014

[threenewpadlocks]

Some of those are waaaay off the mark.
The worst week in PR history?

 

[barmy44]

this was the week i finally took the briefcase from the man in the street, too! there wasnt anything in it

 

[TheWeapon]

This thread is still going? Thought the squiggle predictor might have run you out of business

 

[hutchy31]

Edit: Although in all fairness to Roby, he has been doing pretty well this year up to this point

He has, although anyone taking all the favourites to beat the lines this week needed their heads examined. I'm not a betting guru by any means, but Carlton, GWS and Melbourne were always decent shouts with big head starts. I had all five to beat the line for my first decent win in a while - ironically, the one i was most worried about was the saints with a 50-odd point headstart!

 

[Eshay187]

0/5

 

[Crankyhawk]

$1.54 win. Running loss $4.33 on $140 cumulative, tips 83. Next year I think I will play it at $2 lines for the home team. Also haven't counted some with special offer (ie money back for Adelaide losing by < 20 etc).

This week
Carlton $4.15 WIN
Saints $16 WIN
GWS $8.50 LOSS
Port $1.07 WIN
Dogs $3.20 LOSS

Well this will put me deep into the red...

My one (and probably only) victory over Roby. And the two losses would've been refunded under money back sportsbet promotion. But I am not going to count that (as I haven't been all year). So $16.22 win. Running profit $11.89 on $145 cumulative, tips 86. Will post odds for this week closer to game time.

 

[Slax]

Just looked at Rd 17 changes and again see the usual once a week head shaking move
Bulldogs defeat Gold Coast at a ground which is more of a home game to Gold Coast than the Dogs, but the Dogs remain unchanged and Gold Coast move up. Ablett may be a loss of a couple of goals, but not 5. Then when you look at the stats it shows even more how convincing the Dogs win was, 115 more disposals, 20 more I50, more marks, marks I50, clearances, everything except tackles, but when you have that much more of the ball winning that count is always going to be hard.

So going on the results already known, Geelong will drop below Carlton, Melbourne and Bulldogs and fremantle will remain unchanged.

 

[Roo Lives Again]

I've figured out how to make money from Roby....bet the OPPOSITE to him!

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

The Roby Review
Celebrating trollery since June 2014
----------------------------------------

Round 18a

The rankings don't see a lot of value again this week with the market starting to catch up

You can say that again Roby.

In The Beautiful Game parlance, the bookies kept a clean sheet* this week - the first time Roby's come home empty handed this year.

In Summary:
- 0 correct from 6 positions taken
- Resulting in a loss of the entire 8.5 units staked

Notes:
- He was clearly apprehensive about this round. No high stakes** bets placed, and 8.5 units over 5 games is well down on his outlay in recent weeks.
- The 8.5 unit loss is his biggest single week loss this year.
- Will be an interesting second week of Round 18 to see if (when) Roby loads up to cover his losses and claim an overall Round 18 gain.

2014 Performance:




* n.b. Tim Howard. What a gun.
** High stakes bet as defined by a wager of 3.5 units or greater

 

[Crankyhawk]

My one (and probably only) victory over Roby. And the two losses would've been refunded under money back sportsbet promotion. But I am not going to count that (as I haven't been all year). So $16.22 win. Running profit $11.89 on $145 cumulative, tips 86. Will post odds for this week closer to game time.

West coast $1.54
Brisbane $2.80
Hawthorn $2.10
Collingwood $1.77

Could be anywhere from 0 to 4 without any huge upsets.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Roby who do I bet on this weekend?

 

[Roby]

Betting tips round 18 - Part II

Last week was the worst betting display of the power ranking this year, following the best display of the year from the previous week. It recorded a donut which was the first time since round 2 last year. Getting the feeling for a record making profit this week with nearly all the non-favourites expected to come up.

West Coast vs Richmond - WIN - $2 @ $2.32 Matchbook

West Coast vs Richmond (+6.5) - $2 @ $2 Topsport

Collingwood vs Adelaide - WIN - $2** @ $2 Sportsbet*

Hawthorn vs Sydney - WIN - $1.5** @ $1.96 Sportsbet*

Brisbane vs Gold Coast - WIN - $0.5 @ $1.52 Sportsbet*

*team loses by 20 points or less, refund losing head-to-head bet
**only $1 is a refund bet

Current fund:$85.05
Total staked for 201424.85

Last week's betting tips and links.

Tips for round 18

Roos
Freo
Cats
Port
Dons
~~~~
Tigers
Suns
Hawks
Crows



2014 tip tally: 101/149

 

[The King!]

Should swans get up cant wait to read about the world record umpiring to advantage

 

[Roby]

Saints from Fitzroy-esque to OK

The Saints (15th) had occupied last in the rankings for 11 consecutive weeks but in one game they managed not only to rise from the bottom but also jump three spots in the process with the biggest points gain of the season.

Richmond for finals?

If they were to win all their games the Tigers (5th) could still make finals but they still have Adelaide (4th) in Adelaide and Sydney (7th) in Sydney.

Dees the least favoured by the Kings in the AFL, Port lose Portressness and Geelong...

Hawthorn (1st) up until last week were the least favoured teams by umpiring this week but after the Kings performance in the Port (6th) game, Melbourne (12th), should've smashed Port but at least they move to their highest ever rankings position, displacing Geelong (13th) who move down to their lowest ever ranking position.

Port now have one of the worst HGA in the competition after they had the best in the AFL in the first couple of months of the season.


2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 18 - Part I

1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Kangaroos (-)
3 Fremantle (-)
4 Adelaide (-)
5 Richmond (+1)
6 Port Adelaide (-1)
7 Sydney (-)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Essendon (-)
10 Carlton (+2)
11 Collingwood (-1)
12 Melbourne (+1)
13 Geelong (-2)
14 Bulldogs (-)
15 St Kilda (+3)
16 West Coast (-1)
17 Brisbane (-1)
18 GWS (-1)


Last week's rankings.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Saints from Fitzroy-esque to OK

The Saints (15th) had occupied last in the rankings for 11 consecutive weeks but in one game they managed not only to rise from the bottom but also jump three spots in the process with the biggest points gain of the season.

Richmond for finals?

If they were to win all their games the Tigers (5th) could still make finals but they still have Adelaide (4th) in Adelaide and Sydney (7th) in Sydney.

Dees the least favoured by the Kings in the AFL, Port lose Portressness and Geelong...

Hawthorn (1st) up until last week were the least favoured teams by umpiring this week but after the Kings performance in the Port (6th) game, Melbourne (12th), should've smashed Port but at least they move to their highest ever rankings position, displacing Geelong (13th) who move down to their lowest ever ranking position.

Port now have one of the worst HGA in the competition after they had the best in the AFL in the first couple of months of the season.


2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 18 - Part I

1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Kangaroos (-)
3 Fremantle (-)
4 Adelaide (-)
5 Richmond (+1)
6 Port Adelaide (-1)
7 Sydney (-)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Essendon (-)
10 Carlton (+2)
11 Collingwood (-1)
12 Melbourne (+1)
13 Geelong (-2)
14 Bulldogs (-)
15 St Kilda (+3)
16 West Coast (-1)
17 Brisbane (-1)
18 GWS (-1)


Last week's rankings.

Lol it's official Geelong are worse than Melbourne.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Should swans get up cant wait to read about the world record umpiring to advantage

Predictable pick for Hawks really, disappointed if he didn't pick them.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Lol ******* hell just saw he ranks Geelong 13th.
This thread is going to turn into a laugh in the next month, can't wait.

 

[kirky]

Haven't been following this thread but how the heck are we 4th?

 

[Matt Stevic]

Haven't been following this thread but how the heck are we 4th?

Greetings, you must be new here.

You remember that 2012 prelim?

 

[Fadge]

Lol ******* hell just saw he ranks Geelong 13th.
This thread is going to turn into a laugh in the next month, can't wait.

Don't worry, if it's a Sydney v. Geelong Grand Final the Rankings will correct themselves and have them 1 and 2 leading into the big dance.

 

[Dave]

Haven't been following this thread but how the heck are we 4th?

 

[Indie_]

Don't worry, if it's a Sydney v. Geelong Grand Final the Rankings will correct themselves and have them 1 and 2 leading into the big dance.

Hawthorn to be top after the GF though.

 

[FootyMaths]

Betting tips round 18 - Part II

2014 tip tally: 101/149

Ha! Same as us... a smidge over 70%.

So as before... would love to know your MAPE performance - but since you lack transparency on that...

 

[Is Don Is Good]

I think you're missing a bet Roby. On Betfair, you can get $55 on a Hawthorn / North Melbourne Grand Final Quinella. Surely you should load up?

 

[SterlingArcher]

Well, at least he's right about the Pies...