AFL Power Rankings 2014

[barmy44]

Just a couple of ponderances -

Why did Freo not drop considering their loss to the Saints who jumped 3 while Geelong dropped 2 despite winning against a similarly ranked team to the Saints?

Why did Sydney not move up after a stirling effort against your flag favourite...?

Why did Gold Coast not drop after loosing horribly to the Lions who did drop this week?

& as asked by others, an explanation how the Dees (let alone at least another 6 sides) can be ranked above Geelong would be great, because at this moment I have to say I just dont get it.

haha, you serious?

Gµv = 8πG(Tµv + PΩgµv).

of course, if you take the umpiring in red-time on the second sunday of every third month into account, then obviously Gµv ≠ 8πG(Tµv + PΩgµv); and instead you would simply substitute ßx in place of PΩ.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Shouldn't West Coast be top 4?

 

[rumply]

haha, you serious?

Gµv = 8πG(Tµv + PΩgµv).

of course, if you take the umpiring in red-time on the second sunday of every third month into account, then obviously Gµv ≠ 8πG(Tµv + PΩgµv); and instead you would simply substitute ßx in place of PΩ.

ahh, all makes sense now, my bad

 

[Roo Lives Again]

Brisbane to beat the line was money for jam last week

I thought Brissy would win but it doesn't count if you don't back them...

If you have any more tidbits like this don't be scared to share BEFORE the game next time!

 

[Inferno]

Has Melbourne actually been above us on the ladder at any point since 2007?

 

[Slax]

I thought Brissy would win but it doesn't count if you don't back them...

If you have any more tidbits like this don't be scared to share BEFORE the game next time!

Will do.

Fremantle - look for a massive rebound. Ross Lyon doesn't like losing and having two weeks to dwell on will mean they aren't happy. Can easily see this turning into a 10 goal+ win to the Dockers as forecast is perfect with no chance of a repeat of the conditions from last weekend. So stretch out the line by saying they will beat the line by an extra 1, 2 or 3 goals and watch the odds go from $1.92 up towards $2.50 and beyond depending on how brave you are.

Stetching the line by and extra 6-10 points can increase you dividend markedly. Can be really useful when late changes happen as well, made a really nice clean up earlier in the year when Rockliff and Patfull both pulled out late in the North v Brisbane game at Etihad, meant Brisbane were missing all key players except Hanley, so stretching the line from what was mid-30s to over 10 goals meant the return went up to around $5. Covered a very heavy twilight drinking session.

 

[Astro Bomber]

Has Melbourne actually been above us on the ladder at any point since 2007?

Who cares about the ladder. I go by what Robby's ranks the teams

 

[PattoMan99]

I would love to hear of any possible basis that you could rate those teams in that order.

for the lulz.

 

[treefingers]

haha, you serious?

Gµv = 8πG(Tµv + PΩgµv).

of course, if you take the umpiring in red-time on the second sunday of every third month into account, then obviously Gµv ≠ 8πG(Tµv + PΩgµv); and instead you would simply substitute ßx in place of PΩ.

You forgot to take into account the velocity of the moon's orbit.

 

[eth-dog]

You forgot to take into account the velocity of the moon's orbit.

And the fact that in 2 years time it will be a leap year

 

[Roby]

Hawks another long streak

Hawks (1st) current 17 week streak at the top of the rankings is the longest since their previous record of 26 consecutive weeks from round 13, 2012-round 11, 2013. Their points lead is far above anyone else and even with a few losses between now and the end of the season the will still remain at the top of the rankings. In other words, congratulations on the 2014 premiership Hawks fans (unless an impeding apocalypse were to happen between now and the Grand Final). Until then will keep putting money on Hawks for the flag unless they turn favourites.


Hawthorn Premiers $1* @ $3.6 Betfair


*this is a total of $5 for Hawthorn and the most ever put on flag favourite and a return of $17.65.

Who's joining the Hawks in the Big Dance?

North (2nd) at SCG beat the Swans (7th) by 1 point is what the Power Rankings Model Predictor has currently predicted. North is predicted to finish 5th behind Port (6th) on percentage, but it's basically a toin coss, Kangaroos could finish 4th. Either way they will most likely play Sydney in the prelim but in both scenarios North are more likely to win. This would be the first time under the current finals system a team finishes outside the top four and makes the Grand Final. Carlton (10th) who are predicted to finish 14th on the CPR in 2014, was the last team out of the top four to make the Grand Final in 1999, that year they lost to North.

One very big prediction gives you very big odds so for some excellent value put this quinella:

GF Quinella Hawthorn/North Melbourne - $2 @ 61 Betstar


Training load or most even competition ever (except the Hawks)?

Last week all the non-favourite teams managed to beat the expected line margin (the first time in history) and the PROCTM (Power Rankings Overall Competitiveness Tracking Modifier) is at it's lowest level ever recorded at 0.04. It usually sits around 0.15.

That said last week was probably also the result of some heavy training loads for the favourites coming into the finals, but usually the poor performances happen a week later. Possibly the training loads are starting earlier and there is a new trend in the AFL. Or it could be an anomaly (but the Power Rankings don't believe these exit).


The Crow Complaint

Crows (4th) this year had a average power ranking position of 3.8, annoying not just Port (6th) fans but a lot of people about there high position in comparison to their CPR but then this week Adelaide were ranked on:

Footyforecaster 3rd

Troywheatley 4th

Green Oval Fund and Masseyratings 6th

Footymathsblog 7th

ASAP and Squiggle 8th

and they finally start to catch up, but before this week they as they were ranked as low as:

18th on Footyforecaster

12th on Squiggle

11th of Footymathsblog

10th of Green Oval Fund and Troywheatley

(ASAP and Masseyratings not confirmed)


but never ranked lower than 5th in the AFL Power Rankings.


Power Rankings Bizarre

Certainly I was looking at Geelong's (13th) position last week wondering how they managed to get so low in comparison to their CPR position of 2nd. Looking at the previously mentioned rankings the Cats average a rank of 5th, and that's still a big discrepancy. But of course none of them take into account umpiring or player outs. The Cats have been the fourth worst injured team vs their relative opponents but they have won the most games this year due to umpiring; four. Which would put them on 9 wins and 8 losses and 11th on the Equitable Table. Still this doesn't explain why they are behind the Dees (12th) in the rankings.

First of all the Dees rank 1st on the Umpty as the least faovured team by the Kings this year. They are on average a two goal better team than their results suggest and should be on six wins.

Secondly, last week they should of smashed Port at AAMI by nine goals if the umpiring had been equitable and Melbourne had their best team out. In other words the Dees are on the up and as stated four weeks ago Geelong had already fallen. In fact the Cats have paid on the line only 3 times in their 12 games, with only the Saints (17th) doing worse in that three month period. The rankings will be betting heavily against Geelong from now and you'd be wise to do so too. I really wouldn't be questioning the rankings when they predicted a few weeks before the Cats fall, that Collingwood were likely to miss the finals and here they are out of the eight on the CPR.

Richmond (5th) won't make the finals this year but like North they will be absolutely up there in terms of contention next year. If they can finish the year strongly they can carry that momentum and have consistent 2015 season, challenging the top four. Currently the Tigers are the best team at paying out on the line in the last six rounds having done so five times.


2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 18

1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Kangaroos (-)
3 Fremantle (-)
4 Adelaide (-)
5 Richmond (+1)
6 Port Adelaide (-1)
7 Sydney (-)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Essendon (-)
10 Carlton (+2)
11 Collingwood (-1)
12 Melbourne (+1)
13 Geelong (-2)
14 Bulldogs (-)
15 West Coast (-)
16Brisbane (-)
17 St Kilda (+1)
18 GWS (-1)

Winning and winning

The rankings are currently tracking profit almost four every five weeks this year on weekly bets and and last week it predicted three non-favourite teams to come up with profit at 753% on the initial stake. Which also means only Footymathsblogspot and Dennis Cometti are ahead in the tips. Since 2011 no established model has yet to beat the Power Rankings in tipping.



Current fund:$92.63
Total staked for 2014:$27.85

2014 tip tally:104/153

Last week's rankings.

 

[DardySingh360]

That explanation for the potential Sydney-North prelim

 

[eth-dog]

Such a shame Roby's current quinella will be knocked out in consecutive weeks by Essendon.

 

[SuperSub17]

Richmond 5th.

 

[Rourke]

... last week [Melbourne] should of smashed Port at AAMI by nine goals if the umpiring had been equitable and Melbourne had their best team out.

Wait ... what? You must really rate Daniel Cross & Jimmy Toumpas, because I'm struggling to find the list of Demon guns that would've made nine goals' worth of difference. Meanwhile Port was missing Carlile (probably best key defender), Monfries (definitely in best forward line), and Hitchcock (useful) and had to play without a second ruck - ffs Ollie Wines had the most hitouts behind Lobbe!

Free kicks were 24-20 to Port, not an overwhelming factor I would've thought but then I don't umpire every game.

 

[SJ]

Come on Rourke, clearly Melbourne at 4-13 are superior to Geelong at 13-4.

 

[Slax]

Power Rankings Bizarre

Certainly I was looking at Geelong's (13th) position last week wondering how they managed to get so low in comparison to their CPR position of 2nd. Looking at the previously mentioned rankings the Cats average a rank of 5th, and that's still a big discrepancy. But of course none of them take into account umpiring or player outs. The Cats have been the fourth worst injured team vs their relative opponents but they have won the most games this year due to umpiring; four. Which would put them on 9 wins and 8 losses and 11th on the Equitable Table. Still this doesn't explain why they are behind the Dees (12th) in the rankings.

I still want to know how you can judge umpiring when no-one is the football community (excluding those inside the umpiring department at the AFL) can. If the AFL come out and say it was a 50-50 call how do you allocate it?

Given then that you have made a call on one 50/50 decision you then must make a call on the other 50 that happen in a match, add in all the illegal disposal calls not made and the impact on the match can no longer be judged. We can say that a decision at the death of the game made a difference, but what about a decision in teh 2nd Qtr which would of lead to a team having a bigger lead at the death so that decision no longer mattered? It is impossible to judge the impact of umpiring on a football match under your methodology as it is impossible to calculate what follow on impacts it would of had in the course of the match. People say if the ball bounced differently in front of Stephen Milne in 2010 St Kilda would of won, but what if a ball bounced differently earlier in the game? either team could of already of won the match so it didn't matter. Saying that a decision happened so it resulted in a change in the result shows how weak the rankings system is and that it is completely arbitary in the way it operates.

 

[GuzzLG]

Question Roby

Do you adjust your real profits to take into account umpiring and in-game injuries?

What if the only reason you won/lost a bet is because the umpires favoured the team you bet on?

Surely your actual profits are as 'polluted' as the ladder?

Can you please show your true profit i.e. not the one based on cash, but the umpire adjusted one.

For the record, in my rankings system I adjust my actual profits based on my analysis of the umpiring. So far I sit at 100000% profit over the last 3 years. Can you top that?

 

[Roby]

It is impossible to judge the impact of umpiring on a football match under your methodology

And what is the methodology?

 

[Roo Lives Again]

This weeks tips?

 

[Roby]

Betting tips Round 19 - BIG $pender$

$26.5 staked this week which beats the previous record of $23 staked in round 16. While it's a sizable amount (over a quarter of the fund) it's only the 9th highest investment in one week on weekly bets in relation to the fund.

Richmond are continually getting undervalued and we said weeks ago we would be loading up on them. In the last month and the half they're the best at beating lines. It might surprise you but the Hawks are sole leader over the course of the year (Hawks finished equal on top with the Swans in 2012 as well) at beating lines and along with the Crows they have been the best in the last 14 games having beaten lines 9 times.

Richmond vs GWS (-44.5) - $8 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Hawthorn vs Bulldogs (-35.5) - $6 @ $1.92 Betstar

Adelaide vs West Coast (-30.5) - $5 @ $1.92 Plamerbet

Geelong vs Kangaroos - WIN - $3 @ $2.35 Sportsbet

Geelong vs Kangaroos - WIN - $1 @ $2.35 Sportsbet*

Melbourne vs Brisbane - WIN - $1 @ $1.73 Sportsbet*

Collingwood vs Port Adelaide - WIN - $1 @ $2.28 Sportsbet*

Sydney vs Essendon - WIN - $0.5 @ $3.75 Sportsbet*

Fremantle vs Carlton - WIN - $0.5 @ $1.12 Sportsbet*

Gold Coast vs St Kilda - WIN - $0.5 @ $3.25 Sportsbet*

*money back special if team loses by 20 points or less

Current fund:$92.63
Total staked for 2014:$27.85



Tips for Round 19

All the favourites are expected to get up except obviously the Roos. Expect the tightest encounter to be the last match of the round with Port expected to get up by 2 points over their previous namesakes.

Freo
Swans
Crows
Tigers
Suns
Roos
Dees
Hawks
Port

2014 tip tally:104/153

Last week's betting tips.

 

[emblurr]

Fremantle vs Carlton - WIN - $0.5 @ $1.12 Sportsbet*

High Stakes, Vegas style!

 

[wilbur_15]

Betting tips Round 19 - BIG $pender$

$26.5 staked this week which beats the previous record of $23 staked in round 16. While it's a sizable amount (over a quarter of the fund) it's only the 9th highest investment in one week on weekly bets in relation to the fund.

Richmond are continually getting undervalued and we said weeks ago we would be loading up on them. In the last month and the half they're the best at beating lines. It might surprise you but the Hawks are sole leader over the course of the year (Hawks finished equal on top with the Swans in 2012 as well) at beating lines and along with the Crows they have been the best in the last 14 games having beaten lines 9 times.

Richmond vs GWS (-44.5) - $8 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Hawthorn vs Bulldogs (-35.5) - $6 @ $1.92 Betstar

Adelaide vs West Coast (-30.5) - $5 @ $1.92 Plamerbet

Geelong vs Kangaroos - WIN - $3 @ $2.35 Sportsbet

Geelong vs Kangaroos - WIN - $1 @ $2.35 Sportsbet*

Melbourne vs Brisbane - WIN - $1 @ $1.73 Sportsbet*

Collingwood vs Port Adelaide - WIN - $1 @ $2.28 Sportsbet*

Sydney vs Essendon - WIN - $0.5 @ $3.75 Sportsbet*

Fremantle vs Carlton - WIN - $0.5 @ $1.12 Sportsbet*

Gold Coast vs St Kilda - WIN - $0.5 @ $3.25 Sportsbet*

*money back special if team loses by 20 points or less

Current fund:$92.63
Total staked for 2014:$27.85



Tips for Round 19

All the favourites are expected to get up except obviously the Roos. Expect the tightest encounter to be the last match of the round with Port expected to get up by 2 points over their previous namesakes.

Freo
Swans
Crows
Tigers
Suns
Roos
Dees
Hawks
Port

2014 tip tally:104/153

Last week's betting tips.

If you're claiming to give tips for professional punters, you can't keep including all those sportsbet and other refund specials (as well as use those refunds in your reconciliations). Even at low stakes, if you bet those specials half as many times as you have this year, they stop allowing you to take them.

Anyway, giving those specials as tips is pretty weak as they (and those 1/4 refund ones and others) are pretty much all positive EV.

 

[Donakebab]

Wait ... what? You must really rate Daniel Cross & Jimmy Toumpas, because I'm struggling to find the list of Demon guns that would've made nine goals' worth of difference. Meanwhile Port was missing Carlile (probably best key defender), Monfries (definitely in best forward line), and Hitchcock (useful) and had to play without a second ruck - ffs Ollie Wines had the most hitouts behind Lobbe!

Free kicks were 24-20 to Port, not an overwhelming factor I would've thought but then I don't umpire every game.

Hitchcock hasn't played a game all season and has only played 5 games in the previous two seasons.

 

[Port01]

Hitchcock hasn't played a game all season and has only played 5 games in the previous two seasons.

Have you been following Roby's thread long? Logic isn't used around here.