So what your saying is that a bunch of models that don't use any data released on the day of the game don't change their tip on the day of the game. That is just a corollary of their construction. So, if one of the models used the predicted precipitation, would you allow that model to change its tips on game day, on the basis of a change in weather forecast?
They're not "rules", they're variables. If Roby has a variable that the others do not, he should not be punished.
What's your point?
No, I'd prefer to just complain about yours.My point is that once tips are taken they're taken for all models. You're more than welcome to do your own analysis
My point is that once tips are taken they're taken for all models. You're more than welcome to do your own analysis
My point is that once tips are taken they're taken for all models. You're more than welcome to do your own analysis
Yes nth being a game off 2nd with almost a 3rd of its best 22 out is not of note! We have built some great depth now a good showing tomorrow and I will be bullish about what we can achieve when our draw opens up (very favourable) coinciding with (touch wood) our guns coming back!Round 8
The following analysis and tips are based off of the consensus of the models' predictions, including margins.
Sure tip of the round...
West Coast! All models tip them by 7-8 goals, except for PowerRankings which has them up by 3 goals. They've been in excellent form so far this season and are comprehensively blowing teams away, while notching up important away wins. Expect the Eagles to get up by at least 7 goals.
Good value tip of the round...
Gold Coast Suns! Why? Well, no model has picked them, and to be honest the models are tipping at least 8 same results. The margins for this game vary from 1 to 3 goals to Collingwood with 2 tips under 12 points. If you can get a line around 14 points you might get some money from it!
Difficult tip of the round...
GWS vs Adelaide! Only PowerRankings has tipped an upset by under a goal with the other models predicting the Crows by under 3 goals. This would be the value tip of the round if the models were so unanimous with the other tips.
Summary...
This round is expected to go to form with the models tipping the favourites across the board, except for PowerRankings picking GWS instead of Adelaide. A quick look at the bookies confirms the tips with all the favourites being considerably favoured to the point where it's almost pointless doing any H2H bets (so many games under $1.50).
Friday:
Geelong (11th) vs Carlton (18th)
The models don't expect Carlton to give any fight in this match, and their recent form suggests that this could end up being a glorified training drill. Carlton are 18th, dead last and look to be the worst team in the league. The closest margin is just over 3 goals and the biggest is 8 goals. A line bet around 30 would give you a good return. Cats by 8 goals.
Saturday:
St Kilda (14th) vs West Coast (2nd)
St Kilda pulled off a stunning upset to beat the Dogs 2 weeks ago and were admirable against the Crows, but lost by over 7 goals. Conversely, the Eagles are in ripping form this season, extending from last season (something like +80% win rate from last 10~12 games) and are heavily favoured by the models. PowerRankings is the only model that suggests this could be close whereas the other 4 suggest this is going to be a flogging. West Coast by 8 goals.
Greater Western Sydney (5th) vs Adelaide (4th)
GWS have been in fantastic form this season, defeating the defending premiers, pulling off important wins and being generally competitive in all their games, except of course for the Eagles game. They're playing Adelaide, who's been good but indifferent with their form. It's hard to call this a top-of-the-table clash, because looking back at last season's Suns, they really weren't good enough. The models are split on this game with 3 tipping the way of Crows and 2 GWS. Either way, the models believe that the teams are evenly matched and will come down to the last minutes of the last quarter. Crows by 1 goal.
Gold Coast Suns (17th) vs Collingwood (7th)
Without Ablett the Suns have barely given anything. Their only win came against the hapless Lions, who with Brion the Lion pulled off a stunning upset victory against Port. Collingwood have been anchored in the top 8 for the season, spending most of their time in the top 4 until last weekend's thrilling loss against the Tigers (what a game that was!). The models all agree that the Pies should win this, but they really can't figure out how much by, ranging from 1 to 4 goals, suggesting that the Suns could be in with a chance if they can stay with them. Pies by 2 goals.
Hawthorn (6th)vs Sydney (3rd)
The grand final replay and lets hope for football's sake the real Swans turn up to this one. The Hawks have the wood on the Swans, beating them 3 of 4 times since the 2012 GF and a lot more since 2009/2010, including the 2011 semi-final win. Both teams have had indifferent starts to the season and this match is already shaping up to be season-defining for the Hawks. The models believe that Hawthorn will win, and 4 of the 5 suggest by 3 goals. However, PowerRankings believe that the Hawks will crush the Swans by 10 goals. Hawks by 3 goals.
Fremantle (1st) vs North Melbourne (9th)
Will the real North Melbourne show up this week? The models say:
There really isn't much to be said about North's season to date. In contrast, Fremantle are looking ominous and almost undefeatable. They've had a couple of close shaves (Swans, Dogs) but have been good enough to steady when it counts. The models are swinging just 1 way and believe that this could be anywhere from a respectable loss to an absolute flogging. Fremantle by 7 goals.
Sunday:
Essendon (11th) vs Brisbane Lions (16th)
The 2nd most interesting match behind the Hawks vs Swans match; how will Brisbane go without Brion, will they feel homesick? Will Essendon perform well enough to carry oldman Fletch through to the games record? The models think they can and they're unanimous in the tips, ranging from 4 goals to 8 goals. They don't think that the Lions really have a chance, and realistically, they don't, considering their 2 wins were at the Gabba and their Melbourne form has been s**t house. Essendon by 4 goals.
Melbourne (15th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
As a spectator and sports lover, it's hard to see where Melbourne can get wins when they play like they've done so over the last 3-4 weeks. They've been bad, very bad in patches, and haven't offered anything for their long term suffers to be positive about. Conversely, the Dogs have been good, often great, and have scored several upset victories against highly fancied opponents, last week in particular. The models however, give the Dogs 5 thumbs up by 5 goals, with one model predicting up to 10 goals. It's hard to see how the Demons will be competitive in this game. Dogs by 5 goals.
Port Adelaide (12th) vs Richmond (10th)
Richmond scored an incredibly entertaining win against the Pies last weekend, battling all the way down to the wire, overturning a 4 goal deficit in the 1st quarter to turn it into a 4 goal lead in the 2nd. Port Adelaide went to Brisbane and left scorched by Brion the Lion. Maybe they laughed too hard and lost focus, who knows, but their season has been bad, worse than Richmonds'. Hinkley isn't in the cannon, but Hardwick is, yet Port have been bloody ordinary, except of course for that Hawks game. It's therefore interesting that the models have given Port the nod in this game by 4 to 5 goals, considering the games from last weekend. Port really need to lift their game if they want to play finals. Forget top 4, it just isn't going to happen. Port by 5 goals.
Roby, Final Siren, FootyMaths
what, no pre-round preamble?
) Models say nopeity nope! Eagles by 4 goals.
Sorry mate! Have been busy at work and I've been without internet for the last 2 weeks. I've had to piggy back off of my girlfriends phone whenever I've had the chance! The luxury of working from home no more
