AFL R5

[TheMcGrathMan]

I like looking for peculiar trends, just for shits and gigs, so this is more a draft that I could have easily just as done on Word but thought why not. Proper punters wouldn't bet on this stuff unless they fixed the result, but for fun:

Western Bulldogs total points 1st half/2nd half:
Rnd 1 v WC:
1-19-58 (77)
2-50-76 (126)
Total: 203

Rnd 2 v North
1-15-17 (32)
2-39-66 (105)
Total: 137

Rnd 3 v Rich
1-59-22 (81)
2-41-76 (117)
Total: 198

Rnd 4 v GWS
1-35-55 (90)
2-75-28 (103)
Total: 193

Dogs on the left, opposition middle, total on the right

Carlton total points 1st half/2nd half:
Rnd 1 v Port:
1-56-47 (103)
2-31-73 (104)
Total: 207

Rnd 2 v Rich:
1-35-66 (101)
2-51-32 (83) - terrible kicking though, between the two sides they kicked 11.17 for the 2nd half
Total: 184

Rnd 3 v Esse:
1-22-66 (88)
2-35-72 (107)
Total: 195

Rnd 4 v Melb
1-39-43 (82)
2-19-38 (57)
Total: 139

Bets as a result:
Highest scoring half: Second half @ $1.78 (6/8 times, Blues kicked themselves out of it in the 2nd half both times with 1.5 and 3.7 in last quarters particularly hurtful for this stat)

2nd half points - O96.5 @ $1.95 - 6/8 times

Dogs serial slow starters so will be taking Dogs U48.5 @ $1.88 at HT too.

1U on each. Games have been in general breaking up in the 2nd half, so thought why not look a bit closer at the stats and see if I can hopefully make it more interesting than the lacklustre affair it promises to be.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Although Dogs have won 3 2nd quarters, Carlton none, so Doggies -1.5 @ $1.94 for 2nd quarter line

 

[jefffff34]

I know what your getting at (a SC score is a number made up by a computer based on other numbers), but that's the same as anything you bet on isn't it?

Missing out if you put yourself off limits to fantasy betting! It's one thing we can study better than the bookies.

I was focusing more on the computer based number that gets "scaled" at the end of matches.

I punt on dream team and NRL supercoach (points based system that is advertised).

 

[jaymasha]

I know what your getting at (a SC score is a number made up by a computer based on other numbers), but that's the same as anything you bet on isn't it?

Missing out if you put yourself off limits to fantasy betting! It's one thing we can study better than the bookies.

As long as you don't mind me tailing your fantasy bets!


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[milpod]

I can screenshot if you'd like?


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Mate $5 at 4.05 returns 15.25 profit.Was it a free bet?

 

[jaymasha]

Mate $5 at 4.05 returns 15.25 profit.Was it a free bet?

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[kainomac]

'Returns $15.25 profit'
Meaning that you gain $15.25 and get your original $5 back (not regarded as profit)

In the case it was a free bet, you generally don't get the stake aspect back.

 

[HeavyPop]

Marc Murphy to have 30+ disposals at 7.40. Surely at least he will come put with something to prove and the return of Judd should free him up a bit

 

[Quite Ironic]

what bets are people thinking today for the 3 games??

carlton have come in a lot

 

[Lensen]

Marc Murphy to have 30+ disposals at 7.40. Surely at least he will come put with something to prove and the return of Judd should free him up a bit

he has scored 30+ disposals once in his last 29 matches

 

[HeavyPop]

he has scored 30+ disposals once in his last 29 matches

I don't think its a certainty, but after the week Carlton have endured, I'm not past putting $10 on it.

 

[danielgb123]

Ward over 95.5 DT

Had a very off game last week due to a tag, still managed 60. Has had over 110 DT each week in 2014 otherwise, I think this is a pretty solid bet at $1.87.

Adelaide don't have a tagger do they? Unless Adelaide get very well on top (which they might) he should clear it.

 

[Keystone agony]

Ward over 95.5 DT

Had a very off game last week due to a tag, still managed 60. Has had over 110 DT each week in 2014 otherwise, I think this is a pretty solid bet at $1.87.

Adelaide don't have a tagger do they? Unless Adelaide get very well on top (which they might) he should clear it.

Kerridge sometimes tags.

Kept both Jack and Boak to 19 disposals in round 2 and 3.

Edit: Also he mightve tagged Montagna last week aswell Willzzz (is that what happened last week with montagna?)

 

[GROTTO]

Kerridge sometimes tags.

Kept both Jack and Boak to 19 disposals in round 2 and 3.

Edit: Also he mightve tagged Montagna last week aswell Willzzz (is that what happened last week with montagna?)

Correct on Kerridge he has been regarded as our tagger ever since Van Berlo went down.

 

[Parko31]

0.5U Tom Lynch to kick 5+ goals @$24 for shits and gigs

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Backed the Giants to upset the Crows on nothing but a feeling.

 

[Keystone agony]

Anyone like Levi Casboult, Waite or Henderson for MGS today against a small WBD backline.

Dogs dont really have to many multiple goal kickers either.

0.5U on Waite and Causbolt MGS

 

[Sketi]

Little Sunday/Monday dabble as the Bummers ruined all my multis:

Crows
Suns 1-39
Dogs (drifted)
Hawks 1-39

@10

 

[GROTTO]

0.5U Tom Lynch to kick 5+ goals @$24 for shits and gigs

Where did you get that price from?

 

[Willzzz]

Kerridge sometimes tags.

Kept both Jack and Boak to 19 disposals in round 2 and 3.

Edit: Also he mightve tagged Montagna last week aswell Willzzz (is that what happened last week with montagna?)

Yep Kerridge tagged Montagna last week and Montagna was un-sighted till the 4th Qtr really.
Still pissed why Montagna was allowed to run free last night.

 

[Willzzz]

Anyone like Levi Casboult, Waite or Henderson for MGS today against a small WBD backline.

Dogs dont really have to many multiple goal kickers either.

0.5U on Waite and Causbolt MGS

Umm, good point. Would like to know what odds you got on those 2 though.
Personally like Crameri, think he is due for a big one, especially with no Jamison.

 

[Willzzz]

what bets are people thinking today for the 3 games??

carlton have come in a lot

Too much IMO. Can't believe they went from -15.5 to -4.5. Getting Judd, White & losing Jamison + WB losing Morris shouldn't result in a 11 point line movement...

Can see Carlton getting up but think I will have to play the Doggies -4.5 @ $1.90-odd.

 

[Parko31]

Where did you get that price from?

Sportsbet

 

[Parko31]

Where did you get that price from?

oops $26 not $24

 

[Quite Ironic]

Too much IMO. Can't believe they went from -15.5 to -4.5. Getting Judd, White & losing Jamison + WB losing Morris shouldn't result in a 11 point line movement...

Can see Carlton getting up but think I will have to play the Doggies -4.5 @ $1.90-odd.

Im just not sure what to do in my tipping. i was 2 clear of 2 people in my 65 people tipping comp and they both got sydney and port while i had freo and port so only 1 up now, im considering changing my tip from dogs to carlton. I feel like if Carlton can play to there potential they will win (similar to why i tipped adelaide vs saints last week, saints clearly in form but adelaide much better side if switched on) but i have dogs atm simply cos im too scared to pick carlton who are in dreadful form and dogs usually play pretty well at etihad. I changed to essendon vs freo 2 minutes before game time last week which killed me and was going to change to west coast last night but stuck with port so im scared in that respect to change to carlton late as well but i just feel that if they click in form they will beat dogs. What is your opinion