AFL R6

[banana_bus]

When Freo humiliated us at Etihad in 2012, Walters & Ballantyne kicked 4 goals each.
So those are good outs for our cause, if only we can limit Pavlich to maybe just a couple of goals
Both teams are sound defensively with Freo on average conceeding 75pts per game .
North is conceeding an average of 77pts per game.
Freo are averaging 53 inside 50's per game while North only averages 44 per game.

It's Petrie's 250th so hopefully he can kick a couple.
Daw is an interesting prospect for Freo's backline, can see him monstering them if they try to triple team Petrie.
Same goes for Black who is quite nimble in front of goal.
LT could be massive as well, they are missing their two in form small fwds.

Call me crazy but i think North have a chance, it's probably our best chance of beating Freo in recent times.
Thought i probably won't bet on North unless we blow out to 5 or 6 bucks.
Will be interesting thursday night to see if Wells plays, could see him relishing the wide open spaces of Subi.

Why would they triple team Petrie? He's not Buddy.

Sorry but can't see Daw causing them too much if any trouble.

Walters and Ballantyne are huge outs and probably the only reason I'm not on yet.

 

[TheKanga]

We'll see how it turns out, i think Freo are vulnerable this week but we must play with the intensity we brought against Port & Sydney.

 

[yamahamoto]

This game last year North has full team, freo was missing sandi, pav and mundy. This year North without Thompson and swallow whilst Freo missing Barlow and 2 small forwards. These 2 small forwards kicked a combined of 1 goal last year.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Collingwood 1-19/Saints >15.5 @7.28

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

I'm in the same boat.

Tempted to make my first bet of the year, and a big one at that, given the Dockers still paying ~$1.30.

Better than bank interest and almost as secure, imo.

In fact I think the 40+ @ >$3 is terrific value.

This has 100-point thumping written all over it.

I'm also all over the $1.30, but be wary of the 40+. We always seem to find a way to limit the losses, since the 2012 elimination final we've only had 39 point losses and below (we've had two 39 point losses, 1 38 and 1 35 all games we've been completely flogged in and were so comprehensively outplayed we could have gone down by 10+ goals no problem yet we didn't). So I'd be wary of other teams playing 4 quarters, and also we run quarters out well now (we've beaten all teams in 'red time' this year I think?), so I can't see Freo kicking enough goals to really demolish us on the scoreboard.

$3 is good value considering recent history between Lyon V Scott but I'd be wary of chasing it too hard, and wouldn't even go near 60/100+ margins etc.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Liking Brisbane +16.5 @ $1.92, Fremantle @ $1.31, Carlton @ $2.25 and Fremantle/North U168.5 @ $1.88.

Brisbane will make some big moves at the selection table I think, shoring up their spine with Merrett (Lisle-Paine-McGuane with Gardiner/Clarke as young guys is just rubbish) and bringing in some experience in Raines (tag Steven) & Hanley. Green is a good small forward and could have an impact. I think Brisbane will get a game sooner or later, but don't have the balls to back them in H2H against St Kilda who have shown they will not be a bottom side this year.

Fremantle $1.31 is pretty good considering history/form/outs (Dockers can cover their small forward + Barlow outs better than we can Thompson + Swallow and maybe Wells, they have more contributors and better depth).

Carlton $2.25 haven't seen a heap of WC, and from what I've seen I'm not convinced. Don't know if I'll stick with this one (the only one I haven't yet put a unit on), will wait for teams - no Jamison, I'm staying right away. Jamo back in and if the odds continue to go out to $2.35 etc I'll be there.

Frem/North U168.5 - already got 2U on this - we have kicked 60, 83, 97, 91, 58 this season (the 83 was also in an open 2nd half after getting 17 in the first, Freo won't open up the game like the Dogs/North game), and Freo have restricted us to 79 & 29 both times under Lyon (the 79 coming in 2012 in what was really a pretty open free flowing game). I can't see us scoring above 60, and more likely around 50. This means Freo would have to get 110-120 to beat the line of 168.5, and I can't see them doing that either with no Walters/Ballantyne. And if by some chance North win in an upset it will be most likely a 80-70 game (we have kicked accurately but yet to register 100 points)...really like this one that Kanga identified earlier in the thread

 

[Pie Legend]

Frem/North U168.5 - already got 2U on this - we have kicked 60, 83, 97, 91, 58 this season (the 83 was also in an open 2nd half after getting 17 in the first, Freo won't open up the game like the Dogs/North game), and Freo have restricted us to 79 & 29 both times under Lyon (the 79 coming in 2012 in what was really a pretty open free flowing game). I can't see us scoring above 60, and more likely around 50. This means Freo would have to get 110-120 to beat the line of 168.5, and I can't see them doing that either with no Walters/Ballantyne. And if by some chance North win in an upset it will be most likely a 80-70 game (we have kicked accurately but yet to register 100 points)...really like this one that Kanga identified earlier in the thread

I'm still contemplating this one. Thompson out, who's kept the North backline together at times, is out and if North have to chase the game it could open up and Freo have certainly shown the capacity to kick 16+ goals. The outs of Walters and Balla however do appeal to me.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

I'm still contemplating this one. Thompson out, who's kept the North backline together at times, is out and if North have to chase the game it could open up and Freo have certainly shown the capacity to kick 16+ goals. The outs of Walters and Balla however do appeal to me.

True, TMP bets are never sure things, but I definitely think it's value with the likelihood of Norths restricted scoring.

 

[danielgb123]

Carlton $2.25 haven't seen a heap of WC, and from what I've seen I'm not convinced. Don't know if I'll stick with this one (the only one I haven't yet put a unit on), will wait for teams - no Jamison, I'm staying right away. Jamo back in and if the odds continue to go out to $2.35 etc I'll be there.

I think people are buying into the Carlton win last week a little too heavily.. they only beat the Doggies..

I haven't watched a lot of West Coast, but they stuck with Port the entire game (I rate Port as a top 4 this season). Were belted by Geelong despite looking very good early on. Disposed of St Kilda, Melbourne and the Doggies easily.

I'm not saying they're a definite pick, but they've been far more convincing than Carlton and I definitely see value at the line. I'd say they'll get up by 20+.

 

[Bic]

Just re-checked the forecast for St Kilda vs. Brisbane in Wellington

Min 14 Max 19
Showers 80% chance of 1-5mm
Wind of 48 to 57 km/h

Looks like trying condition, should be a low scoring game.

Where did you get this weather info from?

 

[GROTTO]

Pies at $2
SPORTINGBET

 

[Anzac16]

I think people are buying into the Carlton win last week a little too heavily.. they only beat the Doggies..

I haven't watched a lot of West Coast, but they stuck with Port the entire game (I rate Port as a top 4 this season). Were belted by Geelong despite looking very good early on. Disposed of St Kilda, Melbourne and the Doggies easily.

I'm not saying they're a definite pick, but they've been far more convincing than Carlton and I definitely see value at the line. I'd say they'll get up by 20+.

Think this game is a no bet game at this stage for me, at least until I see the teams. Watching the Carlton game I was impressed by our style of play compared to the s**t we had dished up the first 4 weeks. We were playing on at every opportunity and trying to run the ball through the corridor when we could, rather than always playing the boundary. Quite a few outs for us however with Curnow, Judd, Kreuzer, Bell all definitely missing with Jamison and Menzel in some doubt. West Coast missing a few as well in Glass, Hurn, Waters, Ellis and LeCras.

WC Form at Etihad since 2000 - 19-1-27. Not a great record, not a terrible one. However Carlton record is terrible since 2000 : 36-0-63.

Last Five - Carlton 2, West Coast 3.

Make of this what you will. I think we are a chance if we play like we did last week.

 

[TheKanga]

Where did you get this weather info from?

http://www.weatherzone.co.nz/north-island/wellington

I always use this site for weather, in sync with the BOM.

 

[banana_bus]

Pies at $2
SPORTINGBET

View attachment 52963

Thanks mate, will this be limited to X amount of customers?

I need to turnover some of my Ladbrokes Freebet winnings, so I'm taking their $2 line on Essendon. If Pies win by less than 7 then that's a risk free $200.

 

[GROTTO]

Thanks mate, will this be limited to X amount of customers?

I need to turnover some of my Ladbrokes Freebet winnings, so I'm taking their $2 line on Essendon. If Pies win by less than 7 then that's a risk free $200.

Im not sure, but if you are interested I would get on it ASAP.

I actually wanted to go really big on this and arbitrage as the Dons were as much as $2.40 at CB but when I spoke to them was told that it was limited to just $100. When they put the bet first up, there was no $100 max bet display.

 

[GROTTO]

Thanks mate, will this be limited to X amount of customers?

I need to turnover some of my Ladbrokes Freebet winnings, so I'm taking their $2 line on Essendon. If Pies win by less than 7 then that's a risk free $200.

Have you taken this offer? Both Pies and Dons have players capable of kicking the 4 goals, obviously not a great guarantee for you, but it is something at least as some form of insurance. (Then again I thought that last week when Sportingbet offered money back on a loss of 18 points or less between Cats and Hawks!)

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

I think people are buying into the Carlton win last week a little too heavily.. they only beat the Doggies..

I haven't watched a lot of West Coast, but they stuck with Port the entire game (I rate Port as a top 4 this season). Were belted by Geelong despite looking very good early on. Disposed of St Kilda, Melbourne and the Doggies easily.

I'm not saying they're a definite pick, but they've been far more convincing than Carlton and I definitely see value at the line. I'd say they'll get up by 20+.

Fair points and definitely why I'm considering waiting for teams. I just think that as Anzac16 said the Blues did play a good game of footy v the Dogs, a plan that suits Etihad and will have a lot of teams chasing their tails when coming out of defence. They also had a go at the man (something the Blues are not renowned for) and got 88 tackles, so while I may be buying into the Carlton win too heavy, it's definitely not because it was only the Doggies...

NicNat out of fitness is also another reason, they are a 3-4 goal better side with him firing. He isn't firing, and might be even more sore after copping a heavy one from O'Shea v Port?

 

[laam]

2u collingwood @ 2

any thoughts on the lux 6 pac special this week, dunno if its worth it this time.
Dane SwanJoe Daniher
Scott PendleburyJobe Watson
Dayne BeamsPaul Chapman

 

[OsmiumX]

Port Adelaide haven't bet Geelong in over 7 years I think, Geelong -4.5 seems like an obvious pick.

 

[GROTTO]

Port Adelaide haven't bet Geelong in over 7 years I think, Geelong -4.5 seems like an obvious pick.

The Power did push the Cats last year in the semi finals in W2 at the MCG and was leading at HT.

On that night Chappy I think kicked 4 goals too.

 

[banana_bus]

2u collingwood @ 2

any thoughts on the lux 6 pac special this week, dunno if its worth it this time.
Dane SwanJoe Daniher
Scott PendleburyJobe Watson
Dayne BeamsPaul Chapman

Its always worth it! Great odds for those players.

 

[banana_bus]

Port Adelaide haven't bet Geelong in over 7 years I think, Geelong -4.5 seems like an obvious pick.

Port have been crap for 7 years (and Geelong havent lost many games in that time either), they would have won in the finals last year if it wasn't for Chappy.

Ripe for the picking this week.

 

[laam]

Its always worth it! Great odds for those players.

yep, after checking it in more detail, with current first goal scorer odds, to cover them all would get effective odds of less than $3, NRL one is even better, so will be on again

1u lux 6 pac special

 

[GROTTO]

Port have been crap for 7 years (and Geelong havent lost many games in that time either), they would have won in the finals last year if it wasn't for Chappy.

Ripe for the picking this week.

Agreed. This would be their best time to beat the Cats especially after their yet another epic encounter with the Hawks and at Adelaide Oval too.

There will probably be about 45-50k people going to this game.

 

[Parko31]

I think people are buying into the Carlton win last week a little too heavily.. they only beat the Doggies..

I haven't watched a lot of West Coast, but they stuck with Port the entire game (I rate Port as a top 4 this season). Were belted by Geelong despite looking very good early on. Disposed of St Kilda, Melbourne and the Doggies easily.

I'm not saying they're a definite pick, but they've been far more convincing than Carlton and I definitely see value at the line. I'd say they'll get up by 20+.

I agree man I see Carlton as a bottom 8 side atm if they find form they might be ablr to sneak in at the end of the season but not at the moment and I see WC finishes as a top 6 team