AFL R6

[CaptScott]

I've got line betting on Bris and Essendon. Odds are good considering location/occasion. Should be closer to 50/50.

Also got early money on Port v GWS at sportsbet (currently $1.23 head to head).

 

[Nothing]

Surely Dal Santo will cop the Crowley tag today. Copped the Macaffer tag for most of the game last week and got held to 21 possessions. Crowley has let some people get away from him this year, I'll grant you that, but I can't see him beating all of those guys.

Crowley will make Harvey cry. Again.

 

[TheKanga]

Lol total pts market for St Kilda/Lions down to 160.5 now

 

[Anzac16]

Crowley will make Harvey cry. Again.

Forgot about Harvey actually. Carry on Hoggy!!

 

[stewie griffen]

Lol total pts market for St Kilda/Lions down to 160.5 now

And it will come down further i reckon. Wind is picking up, no sign of rain as yet tho

 

[Sketi]

What is everyones thoughts on St Kilda 1-39?

I like it Kanga.

Anzac Day multi:

Pies -8.5
Saints 1-39
Freo 1-39

@8.8

 

[happy punter]

Pies 1-39 over Bombers @ 2.15 (2 units)

 

[Smiling Buddha]

My first bet of the season is 2U Coll into St.K into Freo -23.5 $4.10.

Just to make today even more fun. Already sinking piss, the sun is out, and we get all three games on FTA up here in Brisbane.

Bliss...

Now I think of it, a decent chunk of this was from the lovely present from Centrebet of Michael Johnson v the great Zac Dawson.

I'll never forget that day. You won me $200. Legend.

 

[titantyrant]

Lol total pts market for St Kilda/Lions down to 160.5 now

Do you still think its value?

 

[stewie griffen]

Do you still think its value?

rains held off so far. Reasonably windy still and looking fairly grey out. Won't be easy conditions even if it doesn't rain

 

[tige19]

+13 units for the year on the footy. Lost 16.5 units last weekend, was stupidly betting aggressively with Essendon as an anchor.

Biggest win was the hawks ht/ ft against the suns into Cats ht/ft against the eagles. Had a total of 7 units on that ( 1 unit is $100 for me ). Last weekend absolutely demoralised me.

I'm having 2 units on the below to start this weekend.

Coll ht/ft
Saints win
Dockers win

$3.78

 

[laam]

2 units Beams Over Swan SC @ $1.80
Average of 124 v 85. Obviously Swan has been way down on form but bounced back last week and has a good record on ANZAC day but depsite beating Beams by a point last week, Beams leads this matchup 4-1.

1 unit Stanton Over Hooker SC @ $1.80
Hooker has the slight average lead of 107 to 103 and it is 3-2 but I don't see Hooker finishing the season averaging over 100 as his previous best is just 77. Obviously he has a more SC friendly role this year but I think Collingwood will put some work into him. Midfielder against backman is always a favorite of mine.

2 units Riewoldt Over Montagna SC @ $1.85
Average of 121 v 105, taking the red hot Riewoldt here. He also ripped it up in the NZ game last year and I can see him doing so again against a lackluster Lions outfit. Raines in the team could mean a possible tag on Montagna too.

2 units Cunnington Over Harvey SC @ $1.70
Taking this based on the expected Crowley tag. He has kept him to just 59 and 74 in the last 2 and Harvey only got 57 against the only real ag he had this year against the Swans. Both averaging around 98 so without a tag it's a 50/50.

2 units Saw Over Hampton SC @ $1.85
Both averaging 89 but I Shaw is a proven SC scorer averaging 97,100 and 101 in his last 3 years at the Pies. Hampton is still relatively unknown and I would expect the averages to be something more like Shaw 95 and Hampton 85. Shaw also got 99 and 110 in his last 2 games suggesting he is on his way back to a 100 average.

3 units Priddis Over Rosa SC @ $1.80
Copy of last weeks reason for exact same bet: Priddis worst year in his last 5 was an average of 100 while Rosa's career best is 90. At the age of 27 I don't think Rosa is suddenly going to peak and average over 100 and there will be at least a 10 ppp gap between the 2 on average.
this year once there is a bigger sample. Priddis saluted 96-87 last week so I will go again with an extra stake.

3 units Martin Over Jackson SC @ $1.88
Jackson has started well with 3 100's and is averaging more than Martin but Jackson's best previous season is 93 which was last year and that is closer to his true average. Martin has become a bit more consistent these days and is definitely a minimum 100 SC average player with potential for much more.

YTD 40-15 +38.49 units

almost all of these into $1.7 or less, seems a few beat me on plans to tail

 

[Keystone agony]

Essendon at 2.60 is crazy now. Still think pies will and should probably win. but value. All those pies supporters putting there left over pie money on them.

Have been hitting crows -6.5
Freo win
Eagles now at 1.90 for win at lux

Bris and Saints under 169.5
Freo and Roos under 170.5

Pavlich MGS

And a host of DT bets on bettracker (see my thread)

edit: 2.60 now for dons. Could they be 2.70 to win before the game.

 

[foxy_dal]

Have added 2 units Mundy Over 95.5 DT @1.87 as posted by a few others on here I saw.

Got a few middles I am trying as well today, not counting on my record though:

$100 on the Collingwood $2 special Sportingbet had a few days ago.

$100 on the best $2 Bombers line out of Topsort/Ladbrokes/Betstar. Best is +11.5 at the moment.

$193 on Cloke Under 3 goals (Luxbet) @ $1.80

$150 Cloke Over 2.5 Goals (Sportingbet) @ $2.30

Firstly I win either $2 or $4.40 no matter what but if he kicks exactly 3 then I win 195.

 

[stewie griffen]

The rains just started in wellington btw

 

[laam]

3u harvey < 86.5 DT @ 1.87
1.5u ward > 95.5 DT @ 1.87
2u pav > sandi DT @ 2.1
1u mundy > 95.5 DT @ 1.87
1.5u pendles > watson DT @ 1.8
3.13u cloke > 2.5 goals @ 2.3
4u cloke<3 goals DNB @ 1.8

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Putting last week aside my bias tells me the Dons are value here.

1U - Essendon SU @ $2.60 (Sportsbet)

 

[banana_bus]

Just heard on SEN that the Bombers camp will be putting most of their energy into Pendlebury. Take from that what you like.

 

[titantyrant]

Also heard watson late withdrawal still feeling effects of gastro apparently

 

[jaymasha]

2 units Cunnington Over Harvey SC @ $1.70
Taking this based on the expected Crowley tag. He has kept him to just 59 and 74 in the last 2 and Harvey only got 57 against the only real ag he had this year against the Swans. Both averaging around 98 so without a tag it's a 50/50.

2 units Shaw Over Hampton SC @ $1.85
Both averaging 89 but I Shaw is a proven SC scorer averaging 97,100 and 101 in his last 3 years at the Pies. Hampton is still relatively unknown and I would expect the averages to be something more like Shaw 95 and Hampton 85. Shaw also got 99 and 110 in his last 2 games suggesting he is on his way back to a 100 average.

3 units Priddis Over Rosa SC @ $1.80
Copy of last weeks reason for exact same bet: Priddis worst year in his last 5 was an average of 100 while Rosa's career best is 90. At the age of 27 I don't think Rosa is suddenly going to peak and average over 100 and there will be at least a 10 ppp gap between the 2 on average.
this year once there is a bigger sample. Priddis saluted 96-87 last week so I will go again with an extra stake.

Tailed these, put them into a three leg multi. 1U @$5.16

 

[tige19]

Watson crook all morning! Pies biggest value bet of the year

 

[danielgb123]

Also heard watson late withdrawal still feeling effects of gastro apparently

If this is true, I hate to say it but Pies over 39.5 is looking good

 

[DonMania#5]

Also heard watson late withdrawal still feeling effects of gastro apparently

No late changes

 

[banana_bus]

Pies biggest value bet of the year

Thats a lie...

And no late changes.

 

[tige19]

He'll play but under duress