AFL Rd 3 Collingwood v Carlton -Prematch Talk and Team Changes

[Scodog10]

This is the way I'd play it.

In: Wood, Wellingham, Johnson and Maxwell

Out: Seedsman, Sinclair, Paine and Tarrant (inj)

I think the key to Carlton's game is preventing them winning the contested ball. If they get on top in that area their spread from the contest will just carve you up. The inclusions I listed above provide us with the best possible chance of winning the contested ball IMO. However I don't believe that that's the way Buck's will play it.

I'm starting to get the impression that Paine will keep his place in the side and that Dawes will remain the back up to Jolly. The main difference from this week to last is that Jolly will up his minutes in the ruck meaning we can go with the 3 more mobile tall's in the front half for longer periods of the match. My main concern with going down this path is that Paine will have no influence on the contest whatsoever. He's shown good signs so far but in the first two weeks he's been matched up on smaller bodies and this week he won't get that against Laidler......

Johnson or Marty will be the sub.

 

[Swooop]

This is the way I'd play it.

In: Wood, Wellingham, Johnson and Maxwell

Out: Seedsman, Sinclair, Paine and Tarrant (inj)

Johnson or Marty will be the sub.

Agree Scodog, this is the way most see it.

However, can we afford to take four new players into a game that promises to be helter skelter against such a fleet footed opponent.

Maxy has missed what three or four weeks with a leg injury ( ie relatively little fitness endurance work, Johnno had two easy paced VFL games where he didn't exactly run his backside off gathering possessions, Wellingham played one game in VFL, was great, then missed last week with possible quad injury, and Wood is cumbersome at the best of times.

Can we go into this game with four reasonably underdone players or is that asking for trouble?

We need Wood to help against Kreuzer and Hampton. No question.
We need Maxy to shore up the backline I think ( though they were great last week - though had Richmond kicked straight would we be still thinking that??)

BJ is a 50/50 IMHO - if he was the only fresh face back, yep, I'd do it - but can we bring him in as third 'newbie'

And I 'd love Wellingham back, perhaps more than any of them - we'll need his pace badly.

I'd leave Johnno out I reckon and play Sinclair probably, as I fear how we'll go in the back half or last qtr match fitness wise.

Even though we need them all back in, should we stagger it a bit, or do we run the gauntlet??

 

[Ed D]

You could probably lessen the risk with Johnson and make him the sub. Wellingham according to Walsh is fine and has been training, and only missed the VFL match as a precaution. Either way, unfortunately I think an underdone Johnson or Wellingham would do better than Sinclair or Seedsman.

 

[soreplums]

Agree Scodog, this is the way most see it.

However, can we afford to take four new players into a game that promises to be helter skelter against such a fleet footed opponent.

Maxy has missed what three or four weeks with a leg injury ( ie relatively little fitness endurance work, Johnno had two easy paced VFL games where he didn't exactly run his backside off gathering possessions, Wellingham played one game in VFL, was great, then missed last week with possible quad injury, and Wood is cumbersome at the best of times.

Can we go into this game with four reasonably underdone players or is that asking for trouble?

We need Wood to help against Kreuzer and Hampton. No question.
We need Maxy to shore up the backline I think ( though they were great last week - though had Richmond kicked straight would we be still thinking that??)

BJ is a 50/50 IMHO - if he was the only fresh face back, yep, I'd do it - but can we bring him in as third 'newbie'

And I 'd love Wellingham back, perhaps more than any of them - we'll need his pace badly.

I'd leave Johnno out I reckon and play Sinclair probably, as I fear how we'll go in the back half or last qtr match fitness wise.

Even though we need them all back in, should we stagger it a bit, or do we run the gauntlet??

When they are replacing Tarrant, Sinclair, Paine and Seedsman I think we can. They aren't replacing experienced players who are seasoned match fit. Tarrant gets replaced because of injury and Seedsman has been a sub. Wood comes in for Paine and he will be playing a different role.

I think that all players coming into the side would be at worst on par fitness wise with who they are replacing. I'd be more confident with the ball being in the hands of Johnson or Wellingham 15 times than in siclair's 20 times at this point.

 

[carnthepies19]

I wouldn't be opposed to having Sinclair or Seedsman as our sub. Their ability to play 4 quarters might not be great, but they are both quick and can help when the scum are tiring. Especially if we got with bringing Johnno and Wellers in because they are most likely to get tired, running through the midfield.

 

[batts66]

Did Buckley put the Cue in the rack at 3qtr time last weekend??? What minutes did the stars play in the last qtr??? Eye on this week???? Agree with most re sinclair re skills, but everything else he does is first class, reminds me of Carltons Robinson. Needs to take a breath when he gets the ball, has more time than he thinks. Should do kick to kick with Bucks.

 

[Scodog10]

Agree Scodog, this is the way most see it.

However, can we afford to take four new players into a game that promises to be helter skelter against such a fleet footed opponent.

Maxy has missed what three or four weeks with a leg injury ( ie relatively little fitness endurance work, Johnno had two easy paced VFL games where he didn't exactly run his backside off gathering possessions, Wellingham played one game in VFL, was great, then missed last week with possible quad injury, and Wood is cumbersome at the best of times.

Can we go into this game with four reasonably underdone players or is that asking for trouble?

We need Wood to help against Kreuzer and Hampton. No question.
We need Maxy to shore up the backline I think ( though they were great last week - though had Richmond kicked straight would we be still thinking that??)

BJ is a 50/50 IMHO - if he was the only fresh face back, yep, I'd do it - but can we bring him in as third 'newbie'

And I 'd love Wellingham back, perhaps more than any of them - we'll need his pace badly.

I'd leave Johnno out I reckon and play Sinclair probably, as I fear how we'll go in the back half or last qtr match fitness wise.

Even though we need them all back in, should we stagger it a bit, or do we run the gauntlet??

I'd say that each of the boys coming back in would be at worst 80% of full match fitness and even at that level of preparedness they'll be able to better the output of those they're replacing.

Wellingham would be coming in for Seedsman who had 10 disposals 2 tackles and 2 I50's. Wellingham at 80% will get that on his ear and will be more damaging with those 10 disposals than Seedsman.

Sinclair had 9 disposals 1 tackle and 4 I50's. As a senior player I'd be amazed if Johnno were to be kept to that level of output. Honestly I'd still back him into match that if he were named sub!

Paine had 9 disposals 1 tackle and 1 goal. Wood has had his struggles around the ground but at worst he'd be able to break even with that output. At the same time though having Wood in the team allows Dawes to play as a permanent forward and increase his output.

Maxwell coming in for Tarrant is a given.

If we get overrun at the end it won't be because we brought in underdone players because we have to remember that the guys they were replacing still wouldn't have matched that output anyway. For instance Beams ran out of puff against the Tiges but in the second half he still provided us with more than the man he replaced, Rounds, would have...

 

[jonesy86]

Johnson is the one who would be perfect for the sub role this week.

Take Wood or Maxwell off about halfway thru the 3rd qtr.

 

[mattys123]

Johnson is the one who would be perfect for the sub role this week.

Take Wood or Maxwell off about halfway thru the 3rd qtr.

If Bucks get's his way Wood isn't playing this week.

He has made it pretty clear he prefers Dawes as the second ruck option for the time being, even if it may be to the point of stubbornness now.

I'd prefer Dawes back in his no.2 forward role, but it seems at least for one more week Wood will have to go around in the VFL, while Dawes takes on Hampson and Kreuzer alongside big Jols.

 

[carnthepies19]

I guess if Bucks is keen on Dawes taking the number 2 ruck, then Painey keeps his spot. Not sure why Bucks is reluctant to bring Woody in. If you look at the percentage of hitouts Dawes has had against him, compared to the ones he's got going for him, you'd likely find more than double going to his opponent.

 

[Old Spice]

Sinclair is a bit more like Armfield than Robinson.

I think as a sneaky peak Ugle in the forward line would be a great contest for Yarran. Could play an absolute negating role and pose a goal threat.

 

[SwanBet]

Time to recall some experienced players for this crunch match.

Maxwell for Tarrant
Wellinham for Seedsman
Wood for Paine
Johnson for Sinclair

B: N.Maxwell, L.Keefe, H.O'brien
HB: H.Shaw, B.Reid, A.Toovey
C: D.Thomas, L.Ball, S.Sidebottom
HF: J.Blair, T.Cloke, D.Beams
F: A.Fasolo, C.Dawes, C.Wood
R: D.Jolly, D.Swan, S.Pendlebury

I: S.Wellingham, M.Clarke, T.Golsack
sub: B.Johnson

EMG: J.Paine, P.Seedsman, L.Rounds

Key Matchups:
Backs:
Keefe vs Kreuzer/Hampson
Reid vs Waite
Toovey vs Garlett
O'brien vs Betts

Midfield:
Swan vs Murphy
Pendlebury vs Carazzo
Ball vs Judd
Thomas vs Simpson

Forward:
Cloke vs Henderson
Dawes vs Jamieson
Fasolo vs Duigan
Blair vs Yarran

Teams match up extremely well against one another, Still think our midfield is better, media have been questioning the depth of the midfield but seriously i reckon our bats deeper, especially with the success of Blair in their, and improvement of Sidebottom.

Need to win the game up forward, Cloke is as crucial as always, however we have seen in the past with Blair, that our smalls can cause some havoc against them, IIRC im pretty sure in the '10 Davis dominated them in one of his few good outings up forward. Therefore Fasolo and Blair could be in for a big game. To me, its their Backline that looks weak on paper. Not saying they are bad players but it is certainly their weakness.

Their Forward line is actually looking great, Betts and Garlett have been looking dangerous, but Harry usually dominates Betts and Toovey is more than capable of containing Garlett.
Reid is ideal type of guy to play on Waite, and Keefe can take the ruckman, as he has the height to compete.

Benny Johnson is the ideal sub candidate, only way he wont be Sub is in Didak comes straight back in.

Wood has to come in, Paine is unlucky, but can't afford to allow them to dominate the ruck, which is crucial to deciding the match.

Wellingham comes straight back in, hopefully will live up to the potential we all know he has, after a rocket from the club. While it is also great to have our general back, and if there has been a criticism about the team in first two weeks it has been on field leadership, something maxxy delivers in spades.

 

[jonoman89]

The Wood situation is an interesting one. It's no secret Dawes won't be capable of breaking even with Kreuzer or Hampson in the ruck, so Wood coming in will definitely aid in the hit-outs department.

But around the ground? Kreuzer particularly excels in that regard and Wood does not. If I was Bucks I'd keep the extra running player and not bring in Wood...sure you might lose a few taps, but the extra small may help mitigate the most important aspect of our ruckmen; their around the ground work.

The only thing in my eyes which splits the two midfields is our ruck brigade. If we can get on top there it might give us that little bit of extra ball that could see us prevail.

Also very keen to see how Reid, Keefe and (particularly) Maxwell go against Waite and Hampson. Our current forward line is packing more marking power than any time since Fevola's departure.

For us, Jamison will most likely have his first game back. Looked decent in the VFL, but Cloke is a monster and may exploit Jamo's lack of match fitness.

Should be a cracking match. Can't wait.

 

[Old Spice]

The Wood situation is an interesting one. It's no secret Dawes won't be capable of breaking even with Kreuzer or Hampson in the ruck, so Wood coming in will definitely aid in the hit-outs department.

But around the ground? Kreuzer particularly excels in that regard and Wood does not. If I was Bucks I'd keep the extra running player and not bring in Wood...sure you might lose a few taps, but the extra small may help mitigate the most important aspect of our ruckmen; their around the ground work.

The only thing in my eyes which splits the two midfields is our ruck brigade. If we can get on top there it might give us that little bit of extra ball that could see us prevail.

Also very keen to see how Reid, Keefe and (particularly) Maxwell go against Waite and Hampson. Our current forward line is packing more marking power than any time since Fevola's departure.

For us, Jamison will most likely have his first game back. Looked decent in the VFL, but Cloke is a monster and may exploit Jamo's lack of match fitness.

Should be a cracking match. Can't wait.

I'd be interested to see Ugle in the team, negating with his pace Yarran or possibly switched to defence to negate Betts etc.

The lines ups will be very interesting.

 

[sloth6]

I'd be interested to see Ugle in the team, negating with his pace Yarran or possibly switched to defence to negate Betts etc.

The lines ups will be very interesting.

Harry O usually rips Eddie Betts a new one every time we play and I'd suggest that Eddie would kick 8 on Ugle. Harry on Betts for mine.

Ugle is far better bet than Sinclair though. Better skills, kicks goals. Neither Sincalir or Ugle have the pace to go with Yarran - I don't think many in the comp do.

The quicker we can see what Elliot has to offer the better.

 

[speedytiger]

I think as a sneaky peak Ugle in the forward line would be a great contest for Yarran. Could play an absolute negating role and pose a goal threat.

Yep like this. Can see it now. Ugle running him down would be sweet

 

[magpies10]

Just had a quick look at the stats from the last 5 times we haved played Carlton. Out of the last 20 quarters played, Carlton have only won 3 (by 6 points and the other 2 by 1 point) I know this will have absolutely no bearing on Friday nights result, but couldnt resist showing the dominance we have had over them in the past 2 and a half years.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Tarrant -> Maxwell
Sinclair -> Wellingham
Paine/Seedsman -> Wellingham

I think Paine should be given more time, as should Seedsman to be honest, but someone has to make way for Wellingham.

With key forwards, every game they get as a kid is like gold, assuming they have some natural talent, and Paine appears to have far more than Dawes at the same age.

 

[carnthepies19]

I think we should consider bringing Ugle in. He'd play the role of Krakouer as the small forward that actually stays there to crumb etc. Similar to Betts for Carlton.

Right now we've got Beams, Swan, Fasolo, Blair, Daisy, Rusty and Sinclair rotating through the midfield as well as taking some forward minutes. Pendles and Ball do this to a lesser extent.

Particularly because we don't have Didak or Krakouer in our side, we need someone who isn't in the forward line because they are resting, as our midfielders will be when they are there. If we have Ugle to be able to run and do his job, then I think we would be fairly good. It would take Yarran or Duigan out of it, because Ugle is quick, not sure against the midfielders, but we need that extra bit of run.

After having a think about it, and listening to Bucks opinion on certain players, if I was Bucks I would make these changes;
Tarrant - Maxy
Sinclair - Ugle
Clarke - Wellingham

I'd bring in more, but that would risk us burning out at the end of the game, with the speed of Carlton, I wouldn't want to take that risk. The injured boys will be better for it in the VFL.

I wouldn't usually take a back out for a midfield, but we have an abundance of defenders. We've got Goldsack, Maxwell, Keeffe, Reid, Shaw, Toovey, O'Brien.

Taking a midfielder/forward for a small forward would be a wise move. Therefore our 'stay at home' forwards would be Cloke, Paine and Ugle. With midfields filling the flanks, and Dawes taking second ruck, with Paine then replacing his FF post.

Our midfield would be boosted by the return of Wellingham, with the loss of Sinclair. The experience of Welllingham will make up for the loss of Sinclair, and then some.

I would still keep Seedsman as the sub. He can come on, use his speed and he is pretty reliable by foot.

B - O'Brien - Keeffe - Shaw -
HB - Maxwell - Reid - Goldsack -
C - Wellingham - Ball - Thomas -
HF - Blair - Paine - Fasolo -
F - Cloke - Dawes - Ugle -
Foll - Jolly - Swan - Pendlebury -
Int - Sidebottom - Beams - Toovey -
Sub - Seedsman -

 

[Breakthelines]

Looking at our first 10 round we should be 8-2 or 7-3.

I can see us losing to Geelong and maybe Adelaide...but that's it.

If we can go into ANZAC day with only Taz not ready to go then I reckon we will be in a great spot.

Toovey - Brown - Maxwell
Shaw - Reid - O'Brian
Thomas - Ball - Wellingham
Sidebottom - Dawes - Beams
Fasolo - Cloke - Blair

Int: Johnson, Wood, Didak
Sub: Clarke/Ugle/Goldsack

Injuries: Taz

 

[Collingwoodity]

Looking at our first 10 round we should be 8-2 or 7-3.

I can see us losing to Geelong and maybe Adelaide...but that's it.

If we can go into ANZAC day with only Taz not ready to go then I reckon we will be in a great spot.

Toovey - Brown - Maxwell
Shaw - Reid - O'Brian
Thomas - Ball - Wellingham
Sidebottom - Dawes - Beams
Fasolo - Cloke - Blair

Int: Johnson, Wood, Didak
Sub: Clarke/Ugle/Goldsack

Injuries: Taz

confident

 

[Breakthelines]

confident

Whats wrong with being confident?

We will beat Port, Essendon, WB, Brisbane, GC.

We should beat Carlton, Adelaide.

Loses to Hawthorn & Geelong.

Puts us at 8-2.

 

[carnthepies19]

Whats wrong with being confident?

We will beat Port, Essendon, WB, Brisbane, GC.

We should beat Carlton, Adelaide.

Loses to Hawthorn & Geelong.

Puts us at 8-2.

Though remember Geelong were beaten by Freo. I wouldn't count us out of it just yet. At RD8 we should be peaking, or at least nearing our full potential.

 

[mattys123]

My preview is up;

http://sportsmatt.wordpress.com/2012/04/11/afl-round-3-collingwood-vs-carlton-match-preview/



As for the debate about where we will be after 10 rounds, can we please just get past this mob first.

 

[Avatar]

Cheers matty, good read (except for those GF losses).

Loving the weather forecast and looking forward to a hard fought contest.

I think, as do most, that the midfields are almost a wash, so both teams should have ample opportunities. I've got confidence we can stifle their run and get good performances from Cloke, Dawes and the small forwards to grind out the win.