AFL Report: Hawks' Tassie venture has failed

[Slax]

tassie is an economic basketcase and the line of sporting failures is a long one.

More sporting teams have died on the Gold Coast than anywhere else in this country.

I'd just like to see what the AFL think of GWS. They pumped more money into GWS in one year than football in Tassie over the last 13. They've done more marketing in Western Sydney than they have in Tassie this year than 13 in Tassie, yet economically Tassie isn't a failure, GWS is a black hole.

The AFL are looking to arrest the decreasing crowd numbers they have everywhere except Adelaide, this means getting Hawthorn to play more games in Melbourne. Hawthorn play the extra 4 games in Melbourne overall attendance numbers will go up over 100k for the year automatically. The AFL need to look at themselves and realise that the problem isn't Tassie it is simply people just don't like the product they are selling the way they used to. People don't like stoppage football. Talk of clearances and contested footy all you like, people like watch one on one contest inside the 50, high marks and dare I say it a good hip and shoulder, not glorified netball.

 

[Rob]

The AFL are looking to arrest the decreasing crowd numbers they have everywhere except Adelaide

That's just not true. Queensland up, NSW up and WA up. It's only Victoria where crowds are down.

Even your club is 1000 a game ahead of last year's average.

 

[Hawkk]

More sporting teams have died on the Gold Coast than anywhere else in this country.

I'd just like to see what the AFL think of GWS. They pumped more money into GWS in one year than football in Tassie over the last 13. They've done more marketing in Western Sydney than they have in Tassie this year than 13 in Tassie, yet economically Tassie isn't a failure, GWS is a black hole.

The AFL are looking to arrest the decreasing crowd numbers they have everywhere except Adelaide, this means getting Hawthorn to play more games in Melbourne. Hawthorn play the extra 4 games in Melbourne overall attendance numbers will go up over 100k for the year automatically. The AFL need to look at themselves and realise that the problem isn't Tassie it is simply people just don't like the product they are selling the way they used to. People don't like stoppage football. Talk of clearances and contested footy all you like, people like watch one on one contest inside the 50, high marks and dare I say it a good hip and shoulder, not glorified netball.

80000 to 100000 but this is spot on...

 

[madmug]

Tasmanian's just have to make the decision that they are will no longer be Victoria's bitch. Used, abused and spat out. Then, and only then they might start getting somewhere.

We 'the people', have no real say in the matter. The Hawthorn deal was devised by politicians to shore up political support in the seat of Bass. The mantra of cricket in the south & football in the north was the divisive 'excuse' used as some kind of justification. The policy was crap. We already had 2 stadiums which both needed to be used. Thankfully that has now been realised. The FIFO deal just consigned Tasmania to the roll of mendicant football state, cap in hand, begging for football.
The AFL clearly see the folly of that position. What they will do is unclear. At least they can see it is a problem that they need to sort out

 

[Power Raid]

We 'the people', have no real say in the matter. The Hawthorn deal was devised by politicians to shore up political support in the seat of Bass. The mantra of cricket in the south & football in the north was the divisive 'excuse' used as some kind of justification. The policy was crap. We already had 2 stadiums which both needed to be used. Thankfully that has now been realised. The FIFO deal just consigned Tasmania to the roll of mendicant football state, cap in hand, begging for football.
The AFL clearly see the folly of that position. What they will do is unclear. At least they can see it is a problem that they need to sort out

yep good point. you first have to recognise there is a problem before you can fix it.

 

[Slax]

That's just not true. Queensland up, NSW up and WA up. It's only Victoria where crowds are down.

Even your club is 1000 a game ahead of last year's average.

Yes, but we've had our higher drawing games already, just wait and see what happens to that number by the end of the season. The same thing goes for NSW.

 

[fabulousphil]

Yes, but we've had our higher drawing games already, just wait and see what happens to that number by the end of the season. The same thing goes for NSW.

Yes, thank you MR Negative.

 

[Rob]

Yes, but we've had our higher drawing games already, just wait and see what happens to that number by the end of the season. The same thing goes for NSW.

Given the Suns are up over 20% with some big drawing games to come, the Lions would need to average somewhere close to 10k for the rest of the year to result in overall Queensland attendances going down. Assuming GWS stays about the same, Sydney would need to average about 25k for their remaining games for an overall drop in NSW. That's unlikely given their form.

I think you've been listening too much to the AFL Fans association, whose apparent objective is to shitcan the game at every opportunity.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Radical idea: send a few of the bigger Victorian clubs down there

Or perhaps give Tassie its own team.

 

[Hill2Pav]

Tasmanian's just have to make the decision that they are will no longer be Victoria's bitch. Used, abused and spat out. Then, and only then they might start getting somewhere.

You can apply that to the state of South Australia as well.

 

[Slax]

Given the Suns are up over 20% with some big drawing games to come, the Lions would need to average somewhere close to 10k for the rest of the year to result in overall Queensland attendances going down. Assuming GWS stays about the same, Sydney would need to average about 25k for their remaining games for an overall drop in NSW. That's unlikely given their form.

I think you've been listening too much to the AFL Fans association, whose apparent objective is to shitcan the game at every opportunity.

My argument never involved the Swans and to bring them into it is an attempt to get away from what the argument is about.

GWS crowds are already down 5% after 6 home games and this included the Swans, if they follow recent trends on number compared to previous season for the teams they still have to host this number will end up being more like 15%, this will represent a drop of 25% on their debut season, they're terrible numbers. This would mean that GWS average crowds are 40% down on GC at the same time.

GC always had a better chance of being able to make a success of the situation than GWS because the competing sports were not ingrained in the same way.

My argument has always been that financially the AFL will never make GWS be able to survive without huge financial support, where as Tasmania could. The AFL will reach a point where they will move GWS purely on a financial decision, no business can continue to pour over $10m down a drain each year and justify keeping it. Geographically they are no longer even based in the area the AFL thought was Greater Western Sydney (Western Sydney to everyone in Sydney) as Olympic Park in inner West, Blacktown where they were supposed to be based is 15km further West. It'd be like saying Chadstone is part of the South-East corridor in Melbourne.

Western Sydney is not going to embrace AFL or GWS and the AFL will cut their losses and move them.

 

[madmug]

My argument never involved the Swans and to bring them into it is an attempt to get away from what the argument is about.

GWS crowds are already down 5% after 6 home games and this included the Swans, if they follow recent trends on number compared to previous season for the teams they still have to host this number will end up being more like 15%, this will represent a drop of 25% on their debut season, they're terrible numbers. This would mean that GWS average crowds are 40% down on GC at the same time.

GC always had a better chance of being able to make a success of the situation than GWS because the competing sports were not ingrained in the same way.

My argument has always been that financially the AFL will never make GWS be able to survive without huge financial support, where as Tasmania could. The AFL will reach a point where they will move GWS purely on a financial decision, no business can continue to pour over $10m down a drain each year and justify keeping it. Geographically they are no longer even based in the area the AFL thought was Greater Western Sydney (Western Sydney to everyone in Sydney) as Olympic Park in inner West, Blacktown where they were supposed to be based is 15km further West. It'd be like saying Chadstone is part of the South-East corridor in Melbourne.

Western Sydney is not going to embrace AFL or GWS and the AFL will cut their losses and move them.

It would be interesting to see what sponsorship & how much effect the GWS has on the media rights position. I know crowds arent great but the purely economic argument would be much deeper than the superficial measures of crowd numbers & some support payments. The other point is how much of an effect on kids playing our game is those outer regions. How much progress has been made is the question.

Still, the Tassie Giants has a ring to it

 

[Slax]

It would be interesting to see what sponsorship & how much effect the GWS has on the media rights position. I know crowds arent great but the purely economic argument would be much deeper than the superficial measures of crowd numbers & some support payments. The other point is how much of an effect on kids playing our game is those outer regions. How much progress has been made is the question.

Still, the Tassie Giants has a ring to it

Sydney ratings for GWS games are poor at best. I wouldn't be surprised if the games that replaced them achieved the same ratings.

If setting up a Tassie side they're better off disbanding GWS, start up a new Tassie side from scratch but give them the opportunity to sign GWS players as free agents. It's still effectively the same, but it doesn't have the complete relocated side taste in the mouth and is more likely to be accepted by Tasmanians.

 

[madmug]

Sydney ratings for GWS games are poor at best. I wouldn't be surprised if the games that replaced them achieved the same ratings.

If setting up a Tassie side they're better off disbanding GWS, start up a new Tassie side from scratch but give them the opportunity to sign GWS players as free agents. It's still effectively the same, but it doesn't have the complete relocated side taste in the mouth and is more likely to be accepted by Tasmanians.

Some things,
1) GWS was a strategic move. It was expected to & will take time to develop. The AFL will give the program every chance to succeed.
2) The AFL are never wrong, just ask them.
3) Vic AFL clubs wont want to lose the sponsorships & memberships they get from Tasmania. Also the many people who fly over for matches at the G or Etihad. Its worth a lot to Victorian Tourism too.
4) How do the AFL go about ditching the politically comfortable Hawthorn/Launceston arrangement. We pay, they benefit.

The pressure will be on, & Its about time too.

 

[Slax]

Some things,
1) GWS was a strategic move. It was expected to & will take time to develop. The AFL will give the program every chance to succeed.
2) The AFL are never wrong, just ask them.
3) Vic AFL clubs wont want to lose the sponsorships & memberships they get from Tasmania. Also the many people who fly over for matches at the G or Etihad. Its worth a lot to Victorian Tourism too.
4) How do the AFL go about ditching the politically comfortable Hawthorn/Launceston arrangement. We pay, they benefit.

The pressure will be on, & Its about time too.

1) In business you make strategic moves all the time, but they are always under constant review and if you aren't achieving the desired result then you pull the pin. TV ratings have not improved, crowds are continuing to go backwards and growth of AFL in Western Sydney is not happening.
2)
3) There is actually a view that the net membership benefits for Hawthorn actually aren't there and for North it is minimal. For those you gain there you lose some here. Those that fly to Victoria won't alter, they've been doing that for years and will continue to do so regardless. As for tourism Tasmania they are also looking at it and wondering if the money invested is delivering results, there are many now asking questions about it and don't believe it is.
4) Read the AFL report on Tasmania, don't think it is politically comfortable anymore and quite clear they don't want it.

 

[Power Raid]

1) In business you make strategic moves all the time, but they are always under constant review and if you aren't achieving the desired result then you pull the pin. TV ratings have not improved, crowds are continuing to go backwards and growth of AFL in Western Sydney is not happening.
2)
3) There is actually a view that the net membership benefits for Hawthorn actually aren't there and for North it is minimal. For those you gain there you lose some here. Those that fly to Victoria won't alter, they've been doing that for years and will continue to do so regardless. As for tourism Tasmania they are also looking at it and wondering if the money invested is delivering results, there are many now asking questions about it and don't believe it is.
4) Read the AFL report on Tasmania, don't think it is politically comfortable anymore and quite clear they don't want it.

it is too early to pull the pin

strategies have time lines and benchmarks. I am fairly sure the time line would be a generation or 2 decades for this vision.

hey, freo would have shut its doors in 1998 if your timetable was reasonable. Freo is now a successful venture but needed 16 years to find its groove.

 

[Rob]

My argument never involved the Swans and to bring them into it is an attempt to get away from what the argument is about.

Eh? You said crowds were down everywhere but Adelaide.

You were wrong. Crowds are up everywhere but Victoria.

GWS crowds are already down 5% after 6 home games and this included the Swans, if they follow recent trends on number compared to previous season for the teams they still have to host this number will end up being more like 15%, this will represent a drop of 25% on their debut season, they're terrible numbers. This would mean that GWS average crowds are 40% down on GC at the same time.

GC always had a better chance of being able to make a success of the situation than GWS because the competing sports were not ingrained in the same way.

My argument has always been that financially the AFL will never make GWS be able to survive without huge financial support, where as Tasmania could. The AFL will reach a point where they will move GWS purely on a financial decision, no business can continue to pour over $10m down a drain each year and justify keeping it. Geographically they are no longer even based in the area the AFL thought was Greater Western Sydney (Western Sydney to everyone in Sydney) as Olympic Park in inner West, Blacktown where they were supposed to be based is 15km further West. It'd be like saying Chadstone is part of the South-East corridor in Melbourne.

Western Sydney is not going to embrace AFL or GWS and the AFL will cut their losses and move them.

Nice anti-GWS rant, and you may well end up correct. But you're arguing against a decision that was made years ago. GWS will get every opportunity to thrive, even if they end up doing the opposite.

 

[Slax]

Nice anti-GWS rant, and you may well end up correct. But you're arguing against a decision that was made years ago. GWS will get every opportunity to thrive, even if they end up doing the opposite.

I've always maintained that GWS would get until the tv rights are about to be renegotiated in 2020. That would mean they get about a 9 years, which would be enough time to work out if they are making any headway in the Sydney market. They say it is a 20 year plan, but after almost a decade you make a decision if you will get the desired outcome or not.

 

[Rob]

I've always maintained that GWS would get until the tv rights are about to be renegotiated in 2020. That would mean they get about a 9 years, which would be enough time to work out if they are making any headway in the Sydney market. They say it is a 20 year plan, but after almost a decade you make a decision if you will get the desired outcome or not.

Possibly, but I reckon it would have to be a car crash for the AFL to ditch it that soon. Like if the club was winning finals and still getting sub 10k crowds.

Remember there are clubs that get over $3 million in additional payments from the league at the moment. GWS wouldn't be the only club in the firing line if the AFL were running out of cash.

 

[Slax]

That's just not true. Queensland up, NSW up and WA up. It's only Victoria where crowds are down.

Even your club is 1000 a game ahead of last year's average.

You really did speak to soon and not look at the draw. Following the massive crowd against GWS which corrects the big drawing crowds from earlier round Brisbane average crowd is now down just over 500 per game.

Withsuch big drawing clubs as North Melbourne, Fremantle, West Coast to come they will easily negate the above average crowd we will get for teh Gold Coast game.

I will keep a running tally for you to wallow in.

After 6 homes games average crowd -528 per game

 

[Slax]

Possibly, but I reckon it would have to be a car crash for the AFL to ditch it that soon. Like if the club was winning finals and still getting sub 10k crowds.

Remember there are clubs that get over $3 million in additional payments from the league at the moment. GWS wouldn't be the only club in the firing line if the AFL were running out of cash.

Your car crash is about to happen. The Essendon FC have lost all brakes, stearing and are heading straight for the lake.

 

[Rob]

You really did speak to soon and not look at the draw. Following the massive crowd against GWS which corrects the big drawing crowds from earlier round Brisbane average crowd is now down just over 500 per game.

Withsuch big drawing clubs as North Melbourne, Fremantle, West Coast to come they will easily negate the above average crowd we will get for teh Gold Coast game.

I will keep a running tally for you to wallow in.

After 6 homes games average crowd -528 per game

Which is more than offset by the increase in Suns crowds anyway.

How are your figures in Sydney btw?

 

[Rob]

Your car crash is about to happen. The Essendon FC have lost all brakes, stearing and are heading straight for the lake.

What's that got to do with GWS?

 

[Slax]

What's that got to do with GWS?

Whilst the AFL might have a war chest, that war chest will get heavily damaged by having to bail Essendon out of a $20m hole.

If players get suspended then they will be able to claim loss of wages against Essendon FC, this includes players now at other clubs so that alone would be somewhere in the order of $6-7m. If it leads to players not being redrafted those claims will increase considerable and suddenly it is we're talking over $10m. There will also be additional fines, maybe by the AFL, but definitely by Workcover. You have the James Hird question about what to do with his $2m contract, plus loss of income. If Essendon don't sack Hird over this sponsors will walk out and membership numbers will drop. It's one thing for members to get behind the club when they percieve them being victimised it is another for the club to keep the man behind the whole problem there once players have been suspended.

All this then leads to a problem for the AFL who does it bail out. In the short term it will be able to do everyone, but in the longer term when the honeymoon period for Gold Coast and GWS end on their ground deals it will mean the AFL needs to pay closer attention to where it spends its' money.

I still say that the decision won't be made for another 6-7 years, but if the AFL coffers take the hit I strongly suspect they will, then the buyout of Etihad ill be pushed back which means more ongoing support for some Victorian clubs. The other factor will be growth in playing numbers in western Sydney, if that is happening then GWS are doomed anyway.

I was in Sydney for 3 days last week for work, I had a look at the SMH & Daily telegraph to see what articles were being written. Neither paper had an AFL story inside the back 7 pages on any of the 3 days. On top of this both papers fitted their AFL articles onto one single page, which was teh reverse side in both papers (it is a proven fact that when people open a paper and flick over a page they are 40% less likely to read the stories on the reverse side than the stories on the next page (ie page 3, 5, 7 when opening from the front but in reverse so say 80, 78, 76). On average in the first 7 pages it was 4-5 League, 2-3 soccer and a couple of other articles (from memory a mix of Union, Jack Brabham funeral & Riccardo's win in Montreal). Still it says that even the Swans and the way they are travelling can't get decent column space (who from memory all the articles were about).

I'm also not sure how much was spent on promotion for the Port game, but it was a massive amount. They had full page ads in the daily papers, heavy tv coverage and radio ads all offer ticket deals that fans in heartland states would die for. The campaing would of been worth well in 6 figures.

 

[Slax]

Which is more than offset by the increase in Suns crowds anyway.

How are your figures in Sydney btw?

Swans are +4,500, GWS -500.

Whilst clearly Buddy is getting bums on seats still doesn't get away from the fact that GWS are going backwards.