AFL Round 16

[Small Moves]

Woo. Turned it around after last week. Missed out on the GC vs Collingwood game though. Should have made a few plays during the week, however I got stuck at work today and didn't have time.

(1U) - Melbourne v Fremantle To Score 3 or More Goals Ballantyne, Hayden @ 1.91
(2.5U) - Melbourne v Fremantle Tri Bet Fremantle OVER 15.5 Points @ 1.33
(1U) - Melbourne v Fremantle Away Team - Total Points O/U OVER (90.5) @ 1.88
(1U) - Melbourne v Fremantle Line Fremantle (-33.5) @ 1.92
(1U) - Melbourne v Fremantle Total Game Points - Over/Under OVER (148.5) @ 1.88 (so close!)
(1U) - Port Adelaide v Essendon Line Essendon (+30.5) @ 1.92
(1U) - Greater Western Sydney v Adelaide Line Adelaide (-22.5) @ 1.92
(1U) - DT: Rory Sloane v Scott Thompson Head To Head Scott Thompson @ 1.75
(1U) - DT: Trent Cotchin v Dustin Martin Head To Head Dustin Martin @ 1.95
(1U) - DT: Dayne Beams v Dion Prestia Head To Head Dayne Beams @ 1.70
(1U) - DT: Steele Sidebottom v Dane Swan Head To Head Dane Swan @ 1.90

Time to do some research for tomorrow.

 

[Keystone agony]

Few bets im thinking but wouldnt mind a discussion on them.

Hawkins <2.5 goals @1.72
Has been incredibly consistent this year goal wise. Schulz kicked 8 against the dogs and cloke 6. I cant see where else the cats get goals from.

N.Riewoldt 2+ goals @1.87
Has still been managing to get a few shots at goal. Kicked 4 on them earlier in the season and I feel etihad stadium will help him and the saints scoreing wise

Geel/WBD under 183.5 TML @1.91
My weather report tells me bit of rain for most of tomorrow at geelong. Also the buldogs arent a massive scoreing side as is.

Syd 1-39
Sydney have started to have some pretty close games in the past 3 weeks. I think they should get the chocolates but not by heaps. Eagles at home rarely get smashes in front of their home crowd.

K.Jack 30+ disposals @2.90

 

[Jay-Z]

Few bets im thinking but wouldnt mind a discussion on them.

Hawkins <2.5 goals @1.72
Has been incredibly consistent this year goal wise. Schulz kicked 8 against the dogs and cloke 6. I cant see where else the cats get goals from.

Based on your comments, I assume that's supposed to be > not <

 

[foxy_dal]

2 units Murphy under 105.5 DT @ 1.87 (luxbet )
Averaging 100 and has gone under 9/13 including only scoring over 88 once in his last 5. Will probably get the Weller tag as well although that doesn't mean much given Cotchin kicked 4 and had 11 touches in a quarter on him last week.

2 units Gibbs over Murphy DT @ $1.75 (Sportsbet)
Same reasoning as above bet plus you can get 110.5 as a Gibbs line. Gibbs has gone over that in 7 of last 10. Gibbs has won this H2H in 6 of last 7.

1 unit Montagna over 99.5 DT @ 1.87 (Luxbet)
Seems low considering he had lines of 110+ earlier in the season and averaged 112 last year. Could be back to form with a 111 last week.

2 units Jack over 100.5 DT @ 1.87 (TAB)
Has covered in 8 of last 9 at probably an average of around 110.

2 units Parker over McVeigh DT @ 1.70 (Sportsbet)
Average of 99 v 93 and McVeigh hasn't scored over 93 for 6 weeks while Parker has been incredibly consistent all year reaching 90 in 11/14 games.

2 units Kennedy over Priddis DT @ 1.85 (Ladbrokes)
Average of 112 to 107. Priddis continues to score at above what he has before as he has averaged 95 most years so I expect him to average maybe just 100 from here. Kennedy has been even better this year and only has 1 score under 103 in his last 11 which was 94.

 

[Willzzz]

Few bets im thinking but wouldnt mind a discussion on them.

Hawkins <2.5 goals @1.72
Has been incredibly consistent this year goal wise. Schulz kicked 8 against the dogs and cloke 6. I cant see where else the cats get goals from.

N.Riewoldt 2+ goals @1.87
Has still been managing to get a few shots at goal. Kicked 4 on them earlier in the season and I feel etihad stadium will help him and the saints scoreing wise

Geel/WBD under 183.5 TML @1.91
My weather report tells me bit of rain for most of tomorrow at geelong. Also the buldogs arent a massive scoreing side as is.

Syd 1-39
Sydney have started to have some pretty close games in the past 3 weeks. I think they should get the chocolates but not by heaps. Eagles at home rarely get smashes in front of their home crowd.

K.Jack 30+ disposals @2.90

Don't think it will rain for the Geel/WBD game, neither will the ground be too wet, judging by the forecast + radar images.
Brendan McCartney was part of the Cats coaching team for a long time and he knows the only way to play Simmonds Stadium is to go fast and down the guts. Both teams will be using the corridor at every chance & I can see either a shoot-out or WB turning it over in the middle a number of times and Geelong putting on 120+.
I think this will go over but I don't like playing Overs so I won't be touching it.

Like Swans -17.5 more than the margin. I've got 0.5U on Swans to Win at effective odds of $3.15 (Took Swans 11 Wins in a Row a few weeks back) so I might not add too much on the line. Swans have a great record in Perth and I don't rate the Eagles.

Jack isn't a huge possession winner but recent form says his a chance and is Over's at $2.90. I personally would take it if I could.

 

[Keystone agony]

2 units Murphy under 105.5 DT @ 1.87 (luxbet )
Averaging 100 and has gone under 9/13 including only scoring over 88 once in his last 5. Will probably get the Weller tag as well although that doesn't mean much given Cotchin kicked 4 and had 11 touches in a quarter on him last week.

2 units Gibbs over Murphy DT @ $1.75 (Sportsbet)
Same reasoning as above bet plus you can get 110.5 as a Gibbs line. Gibbs has gone over that in 7 of last 10. Gibbs has won this H2H in 6 of last 7.

1 unit Montagna over 99.5 DT @ 1.87 (Luxbet)
Seems low considering he had lines of 110+ earlier in the season and averaged 112 last year. Could be back to form with a 111 last week.

2 units Jack over 100.5 DT @ 1.87 (TAB)
Has covered in 8 of last 9 at probably an average of around 110.

2 units Parker over McVeigh DT @ 1.70 (Sportsbet)
Average of 99 v 93 and McVeigh hasn't scored over 93 for 6 weeks while Parker has been incredibly consistent all year reaching 90 in 11/14 games.

2 units Kennedy over Priddis DT @ 1.85 (Ladbrokes)
Average of 112 to 107. Priddis continues to score at above what he has before as he has averaged 95 most years so I expect him to average maybe just 100 from here. Kennedy has been even better this year and only has 1 score under 103 in his last 11 which was 94.

Murphy scored 120 on them earlier and continue to be the easiest to score against DT wise. Although I was considering it because of the expected Weller/jones tsg. However saints besides cotchin sort of stopped tagging of late.

Montagna got tagged earlier this season by them and went unders. Unsure if one score means hes back in form.

IIRC Mcveigh has field days at subi and did against the eagles last year. Depends who takes up the slack of Hanneberry and finds more midfield time.

As easily you can say that for Priddis you could easily say the same for JPK. IIRC Priddis avg more last year throughout the whole of 2013.

Devils advocate. I like the jack one though

 

[Willzzz]

2 units Murphy under 105.5 DT @ 1.87 (luxbet )
Averaging 100 and has gone under 9/13 including only scoring over 88 once in his last 5. Will probably get the Weller tag as well although that doesn't mean much given Cotchin kicked 4 and had 11 touches in a quarter on him last week.

2 units Gibbs over Murphy DT @ $1.75 (Sportsbet)
Same reasoning as above bet plus you can get 110.5 as a Gibbs line. Gibbs has gone over that in 7 of last 10. Gibbs has won this H2H in 6 of last 7.

1 unit Montagna over 99.5 DT @ 1.87 (Luxbet)
Seems low considering he had lines of 110+ earlier in the season and averaged 112 last year. Could be back to form with a 111 last week.

2 units Jack over 100.5 DT @ 1.87 (TAB)
Has covered in 8 of last 9 at probably an average of around 110.

2 units Parker over McVeigh DT @ 1.70 (Sportsbet)
Average of 99 v 93 and McVeigh hasn't scored over 93 for 6 weeks while Parker has been incredibly consistent all year reaching 90 in 11/14 games.

2 units Kennedy over Priddis DT @ 1.85 (Ladbrokes)
Average of 112 to 107. Priddis continues to score at above what he has before as he has averaged 95 most years so I expect him to average maybe just 100 from here. Kennedy has been even better this year and only has 1 score under 103 in his last 11 which was 94.

I think Gibbs should beat Murphy but sooner or later a team will tag Gibbs > Murphy. It might be this week, it might not.
Having said that, I think Gibbs can handle a tag better than Murphy and at odds of $1.75, it is probably still the right play.

Montagna is back into some form but I am almost certain Curnow will run with him. Pretty sure Curnow did last time they met and if not Curnow than perhaps Everitt. With the tag, I think it will be a close-run thing, without the tag he will go over easily.

Parker should be okay but he prefers playing at smaller grounds (i.e.. SCG). Haven't checked the statistics but I'm pretty sure he struggles a bit at the bigger grounds simply cause he gets a lot of tackles, likes the in-and-under stuff . Not sure there will be too many stoppages today at Patterson's. McVeigh is a lot better in open spaces as he is a better runner. I would take McVeigh @ $2.10 if I could.

Like Kennedy simply cause he is in better form and a better scorer. I don't like playing these types of DT head-to-heads though as Priddis is also a very good DT scorer. He is probably good for 105 most weeks, with the occasional 120+.

Just my thoughts though, you've had a great run and I'm sure it will continue.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think Steven gets Curnow and Montagna gets maybe Everitt or someone else.

The good thing for Parker is the game will be a pool and the ball will be on the ground in tight alot which should help. He had 6 clearances and 30 last week so that tells me hes playing plenty of footy in the guts.

I agree on gibbs he will get taggged soon. Judd back helps aswell though

 

[Willzzz]

The good thing for Parker is the game will be a pool and the ball will be on the ground in tight alot which should help. He had 6 clearances and 30 last week so that tells me hes playing plenty of footy in the guts.

Let's hope it turns into a pool as I've maxed (5U) the Under 168.5.
Might hedge a bit out pre-game or in-game if the conditions aren't as bad as expected though.

 

[foxy_dal]

Thanks for the thoughts guys.

On Murphy: I did see that he scored big in the last matchup this season which was one of his 4 games that has gone over this line and the matchup against Saints is the only worrying thing for me. I know Saints are much more of a rabble this year but Murphy's last 4 scores prior to that against Saints were 64,53, 76 and 53. They tag him every time as well and despite Weller not being a great tagger I always prefer to be on the unders when someone is getting tagged and Murhpy is hardly known for beating tags.

On Gibbs: As when these teams last plays both Gibbs and Murphy killed it (with Gibbs doing better) this is sort of a hedge on the above but it's also a good bet on its own I think. No Jones this week so Saints will only be tagging one player

On Montagna: Agree that he is likely to receive some sort of attention which contradicts what I just said about taking players who are tagged. That's why I just went 1 unit here. Steven definitely gets tagged going from the last game so hopefully there isn't much attention Montagnas way.

On Parker: I don't really buy into players scoring being affected much based on the ground size (statistics may say otherwise). He scored 84 and 106 at the ground last year which was around and above his average last year. Jus has been very consistent this year and I think I can mark him down for at least 90.

ON JPK v Priddis: I agree on not taking these types of gun v gun too often but as I said in my post despite Priddis having his best year and a fair way above his usual production Kennedy has still been 5 points better a game on average. In regards to Priddis averaging mroe for the whole of 2013 he averaged 97 last year? I know he had an injury affected game so his true average was more like 100. Could say the same for Kennedy as he is a bit earlier in his career I would tip him to be able to maintain these type of levels whereas Priddis has been in the system for longer and it's a bit of a surprise for me to see him bump his average up by so much (although he did average 105 in 2011).

 

[ricardogp]

Having a long one today:

Carlton > 24.5
Swans < 39.5
Geelong > 24.5
0.5u @ $4.11

 

[Keystone agony]

Adding:

1U J.J.Kennedy -2 goals @2.00 (Luxbet)

For this to lose he has to kick 3. He has only done that 3 times this year. In the pouring rain and against really good defenders like Grundy and Richards, in an expected low scoring game i really should probably be going heavier on this.

Also

1U Sydney 1-39 @2.10 (betstar)

 

[Willzzz]

1.5U – DT: Simpson < 98.5 @ $1.87 (Bet365)

Pretty sure St Kilda Saint will send someone to Simpson after seeing how effective the tag was to stopping Carlton's run against the GWS.
He averages around 95, and has struggled a little of late. Not sure if he is still feeling the ill-effects of the corky. Worry is Saints leak a lot of DT points but 98 is a pretty big line for a HBF.

Not exactly spoilt with DT markets. Don't like Judd/Simpson and Gibbs Under 105.5 is probably too close for my liking.

 

[Zealbee]

Adding:

1U J.J.Kennedy -2 goals @2.00 (Luxbet)

For this to lose he has to kick 3. He has only done that 3 times this year. In the pouring rain and against really good defenders like Grundy and Richards, in an expected low scoring game i really should probably be going heavier on this.

Also

1U Sydney 1-39 @2.10 (betstar)

Don't you lose if he kicks 2? Or just get your money back?

 

[ricardogp]

FY It's currently showering in Perth, with occasional thunder. The weather forecast says that showers should persist until the start of the game and die off, but it will also be windy.

 

[ricardogp]

Eagles v Sydney First Half under 76.5
0.5u @ $1.88

 

[foxy_dal]

1.5U – DT: Simpson < 98.5 @ $1.87 (Bet365)

Pretty sure St Kilda Saint will send someone to Simpson after seeing how effective the tag was to stopping Carlton's run against the GWS.
He averages around 95, and has struggled a little of late. Not sure if he is still feeling the ill-effects of the corky. Worry is Saints leak a lot of DT points but 98 is a pretty big line for a HBF.

Not exactly spoilt with DT markets. Don't like Judd/Simpson and Gibbs Under 105.5 is probably too close for my liking.

I know you don't use TAB but Gibbs line is 110.5 there if your thinking under.

 

[banana_bus]

Looks like there will be 2 late changes for the Cats.

 

[Keystone agony]

Looks like there will be 2 late changes for the Cats.

Who? Plz not SJ

 

[Keystone agony]

Don't you lose if he kicks 2? Or just get your money back?

Nah, money back

 

[Willzzz]

Who? Plz not SJ

Rumours or SJ, Bartel, Selwood.

Doubt all 3 will miss but most probably 1 maybe 2.

 

[Willzzz]

I know you don't use TAB but Gibbs line is 110.5 there if your thinking under.

Looks like this is the week he gets tagged over Murphy. Still scoring better than Murphy though :O

 

[Keystone agony]

Argh Riewoldt already kicked 2 and I didnt end up getting on it. No doubt will get at least 3.

 

[stewie griffen]

Was debating taking a fgs punt on buddy at 8s, by given the weather might hold off

 

[stewie griffen]

Kurt and nicnat late outs, Sydney drifting