- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,780
- 8,381
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
And yes im getting in early. Finally starting to get some sort of continuity into watching football and being able to research enough. Im hopeing for a good week and already i like what i see.
Adel @2.12 vs Hawks @1.70 (Line 5.5)
Hawks just have to win this game. IMO its going to be the best bet of the week. Yes Adelaide have been really good of late and yes they have been good at home. However its just a must win for the hawks and to hold onto that top 2 spot its a MUST win game. They cant afford to give home finals to Freo and Sydney straight up which will be the case if they lose this game and they have a tough run home playing both those sides later on. The reason i really like them is because the market seems to be a little out of whack due to Crows smashing GWS and the Hawks getting beaten by 20 points against North. Slightly reactionary IMO.
However i think the crows could potentially be without Dangerfield and S.Thompson for this game. Both copped what seemed to be quite serious injuries. I think Adelaide lack in the quality depth compartment as it is, so these would be 2 big outs. S.Mitchell will be better for the run and the hawks will welcome back Brad Hill and Ben Mcevoy this week - which are 2 massive INS. Also like the hawks at the line, i love betting against small lines because when a team wins, its usually by more than 5-6 in this case.
Melbourne 5.75, Geelong 1.12 (Line 37.5)
I like Melbournes line. I still dont rate the cats and i think Melbourne have been renowned for keeping games close this year whereas Geelong are now starting to struggle to put sides away. Eg heavy reliance on Hawkins or a really low scoreing game. I also think Geelong will continue to rest, maybe welcome back Kelly but rest a Bartel.
North 1.03, Saints 11.00 (Line 58.5)
Nothing i really like. Are the Roos to short and the Saints more than they should be, i really dont know. I also dont know how the blundstone arena plays. Probably wont touch. North have been poor against low sides though and games they expect to win i think they could come out slow and content beating the hawks. Remember Brisbane beat them just 2 weeks ago.
WBD @2.85, GC @1.40 (Line 17.5)
Really unsure but i feel its a game where it should be bet on. Strange comment i know. GC without potentially Ablett, Dixon and Mckenzie are 3 big outs. The dogs continue to go pretty well however they got smashed against them earlier in the year, although it was at Metricon Stadium and this game is in Cairns so still favorable to the suns. I think the dogs probably offer a bit of value here with those potential/likely outs.
Syd @1.11, Carl @6 (Line 39.5)
Unsure which way to go on this one. I think im leaning Sydneys way. They just look like they are about to hit brilliant form again. If Tippett returns than i think their tall forwards will be too good for the blues tall backs. Will depend a bit on the weather. Might be a low scoring scrap again.
Brisbane @2.50, WCE @1.50 (Line 9.5)
Think i maybe like Brisbane. What do the eagles have left to play for and dont they traditionally throw seasons for picks if they cant make finals. They will be pretty unmotivated i think. Away and in what i reckon will be a low scoreing game. J.J.Kennedy potentially could miss a game? Lions still have a pretty ordinary starting side and it will be hard to kick a score against the likes of Mckenzie, Hurn ect. Im leaning Lions in this game at the line, maybe HT/FT aswell.
Rich @2.50, Port @1.50 (Line 12.5)
Boy are people getting carried away with Ports 3 straight losses in a row. They lost 2 by less than a kick one against Sydney at the SCG and the other against the dons in the wet in a very low scoring game. Then Adelaide beat them in the derby. Richmond are certainly no world beaters and i think this is getting carried away with a 6 goal win over the saints and a 4 goal win over Brisbane at home, nothing that exciting. I like port at the line and H2H alot here. Similar to that of the hawks. Its a must win game for them. Richmond do matchup pretty well on the power and perform well against them which is a little concern and being at ES.
Ess 2.20, Coll 1.65 (Line 7.5)
The dons will get back Hibberd. However the pies will probably get guys like Maxwell/Reid/Ball ect back. Will be a low scoring affair and ill take the value the bombers offer here i think they were every bit as good as the pies earlier in the season.
Freo 1.02, GWS 12 (Line 58.5)
Will probably keep clear. Think GWS are probably vaue at the line but away from home they can get absolutely smacked sometimes and IIRC have in the past by freo at subiaco. I reckon Freo probably rest a couple of players for this game which helps. However how important is percentage at the top of the ladder.
Adel @2.12 vs Hawks @1.70 (Line 5.5)
Hawks just have to win this game. IMO its going to be the best bet of the week. Yes Adelaide have been really good of late and yes they have been good at home. However its just a must win for the hawks and to hold onto that top 2 spot its a MUST win game. They cant afford to give home finals to Freo and Sydney straight up which will be the case if they lose this game and they have a tough run home playing both those sides later on. The reason i really like them is because the market seems to be a little out of whack due to Crows smashing GWS and the Hawks getting beaten by 20 points against North. Slightly reactionary IMO.
However i think the crows could potentially be without Dangerfield and S.Thompson for this game. Both copped what seemed to be quite serious injuries. I think Adelaide lack in the quality depth compartment as it is, so these would be 2 big outs. S.Mitchell will be better for the run and the hawks will welcome back Brad Hill and Ben Mcevoy this week - which are 2 massive INS. Also like the hawks at the line, i love betting against small lines because when a team wins, its usually by more than 5-6 in this case.
Melbourne 5.75, Geelong 1.12 (Line 37.5)
I like Melbournes line. I still dont rate the cats and i think Melbourne have been renowned for keeping games close this year whereas Geelong are now starting to struggle to put sides away. Eg heavy reliance on Hawkins or a really low scoreing game. I also think Geelong will continue to rest, maybe welcome back Kelly but rest a Bartel.
North 1.03, Saints 11.00 (Line 58.5)
Nothing i really like. Are the Roos to short and the Saints more than they should be, i really dont know. I also dont know how the blundstone arena plays. Probably wont touch. North have been poor against low sides though and games they expect to win i think they could come out slow and content beating the hawks. Remember Brisbane beat them just 2 weeks ago.
WBD @2.85, GC @1.40 (Line 17.5)
Really unsure but i feel its a game where it should be bet on. Strange comment i know. GC without potentially Ablett, Dixon and Mckenzie are 3 big outs. The dogs continue to go pretty well however they got smashed against them earlier in the year, although it was at Metricon Stadium and this game is in Cairns so still favorable to the suns. I think the dogs probably offer a bit of value here with those potential/likely outs.
Syd @1.11, Carl @6 (Line 39.5)
Unsure which way to go on this one. I think im leaning Sydneys way. They just look like they are about to hit brilliant form again. If Tippett returns than i think their tall forwards will be too good for the blues tall backs. Will depend a bit on the weather. Might be a low scoring scrap again.
Brisbane @2.50, WCE @1.50 (Line 9.5)
Think i maybe like Brisbane. What do the eagles have left to play for and dont they traditionally throw seasons for picks if they cant make finals. They will be pretty unmotivated i think. Away and in what i reckon will be a low scoreing game. J.J.Kennedy potentially could miss a game? Lions still have a pretty ordinary starting side and it will be hard to kick a score against the likes of Mckenzie, Hurn ect. Im leaning Lions in this game at the line, maybe HT/FT aswell.
Rich @2.50, Port @1.50 (Line 12.5)
Boy are people getting carried away with Ports 3 straight losses in a row. They lost 2 by less than a kick one against Sydney at the SCG and the other against the dons in the wet in a very low scoring game. Then Adelaide beat them in the derby. Richmond are certainly no world beaters and i think this is getting carried away with a 6 goal win over the saints and a 4 goal win over Brisbane at home, nothing that exciting. I like port at the line and H2H alot here. Similar to that of the hawks. Its a must win game for them. Richmond do matchup pretty well on the power and perform well against them which is a little concern and being at ES.
Ess 2.20, Coll 1.65 (Line 7.5)
The dons will get back Hibberd. However the pies will probably get guys like Maxwell/Reid/Ball ect back. Will be a low scoring affair and ill take the value the bombers offer here i think they were every bit as good as the pies earlier in the season.
Freo 1.02, GWS 12 (Line 58.5)
Will probably keep clear. Think GWS are probably vaue at the line but away from home they can get absolutely smacked sometimes and IIRC have in the past by freo at subiaco. I reckon Freo probably rest a couple of players for this game which helps. However how important is percentage at the top of the ladder.
