Preview AFL Round 19 - North Melbourne v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7:40PM Saturday 2 August

[Vdubs]

As long as it means Geelong wins and we get 4 more premiership points, I'm perfectly happy with that scenario. If there was ever a fortnight where the how we win doesn't matter as long as we do win, the next two games are it.

That goes for all our next 8 games!

 

[Partridge]

That goes for all our next 8 games!

Except that if we win just the next 2, we're two games clear of Fremantle no matter what, and 3 games clear of North no matter what. With Fremantle still to face Hawthorn and Port after that, that's as good as it will get for us.

 

[rickster]

some real dreamers on this board

if we do win, it'll be the usual couple of goals

Strong username to post content ratio

 

[dazbroncos]

Any specific reasons?

Ins: advantage to Geelong here. Two automatic best 22 players return, in Christensen and Blicavs. North will have Brown (probably replacing Black) and then one or more players who had previously been playing VFL (Anthony, Mullett, McKenzie etc.)

Venue: North loves Etihad and has consistently given the Cats problems there since 2012. Having said that, the Roos are a pretty moderate 5-3 at Etihad in 2014 and put in a shocker there in their last run against Carlton. Geelong has only played at Etihad twice in 2014, winning both times.

Form: North continues to yo-yo (though they are due to be 'up' this week). Geelong has won four straight and six of the last seven.

On the line: if Geelong loses this game, the chances of top two are on a knife's edge (would have to win the remaining four games, including against Fremantle and Hawthorn): lose this game and the Cats could easily be out of the top four by the end of the round (Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn are all expected to win and Port is probably a 50/50 prospect to beat Collingwood); win and the Cats probably just need to win one of the Fremantle/Hawthorn games and take care of business against Carlton and Brisbane and they should cruise to an MCG Qualifying Final...a critical game. There is a very remote chance that a loss could drop North out of the top eight, but the Roos only have one team in the last four games that might have something to play for (Adelaide in Hobart). The loss to Carlton made them rank outsiders for a top four finish and, regardless of the result here, North looks set to be playing an Elimination Final at the MCG. Much more at stake for Geelong.

Availability: Geelong is as close to full-strength as possible, heading into the last month of the H&A season. Of players who have been in the seniors this year, only George Burbury and Taylor Hunt are potentially missing this week (Hunt may play VFL) and neither of those two would be expected to factor in the AFL team's September campaign. North is missing vital cogs in Wells and Grima, along with senior options like Tippett, Tarrant, Nahas and McMillan

Rucks/midfield: Goldstein and Daw/Brown v McIntosh/Simpson and Blicavs. North actually had the better of the hitouts and clearances last time the teams met, though with Lonergan's early substitution, Blicavs played almost exclusively in the back half and McIntosh was playing primarily as a forward alongside Hawkins at this stage of the season. Goldstein is an All-Australian calibre ruckman and deserves respect, but I think either McIntosh or Simpson can at least make it a decent battle between the number ones and Blicavs continues to improve as a number two, where I think he has a clear edge on Daw (admittedly, I haven't seen a lot of Brown as a ruckman). When Blicavs is up against Goldstein, it is critical for him to try to work Goldstein over and see if we can get him fatigued for the last quarter, to give our boys a big advantage at the end of the game.

Christensen, Caddy and Johnson will all be inclusions to the midfield from that previous game, while North will be making changes of the Anthony in, Bastinac/Adams out variety. With Selwood, Johnson and Motlop all hitting pretty much peak form, the consistent Stokes in his second game back, Guthrie (hopefully) dying for a shot at Harvey, Christensen, Caddy and Duncan providing toughness and class, Horlin-Smith hopefully continuing a consistent season and the option of putting Bartel and Kelly in to the middle like last time (both absolutely torched North in that game), I think we should go in confident that our midfield can do the job. It's as strong as the middle of the ground has looked for us for some time, in terms of both available personnel and current form. Greenwood will probably go to Selwood or Johnson, but even if he's effective in slowing one of them down, I think we have enough quality midfielders at our disposal to overcome that, where we may not have earlier in the season. Plus, there's always the option to put Selwood/Johnson forward and let Bartel loose in the middle again. The Guthrie/Harvey match-up will be crucial and I think Guthrie is just the man for the job: he's quick, skilled, tough and he's certainly got no qualms with making Harvey hurt with a tackle or two. And, if Guthrie is effective on Harvey and Harvey spits the dummy, Guthrie is a master of hurting his opponent the other way. I'm very excited about that match-up.

In defence, we need to focus on locking down on Thomas and Petrie. This was done reasonably effectively last time, but they still managed six goals between them and Thomas, in particular always seems to kick his 3+ against us. Bews may come in as a designated Thomas stopper, but whoever does needs to focus on not getting sucked in by him. If he's going to kick goals, make him earn them. Don't gift them to him with dumb free kicks...he thrives on drawing those and he is a clinical finisher these days. Lonergan to Petrie, Taylor to Black/Daw and Rivers to Brown would be my suggested match-ups. Keep those talls to under five goals between them and we'll go a long way to winning the game.

Up forward, our most important players will be Kersten and Murdoch. Thompson will go to Hawkins again and Hawkins will be productive, provided North isn't able to double and triple team him. That's where Kersten is critical. The Roos will either match him up with someone like Firrito (and Kersten should absolutely be able to exploit that), or they'll possibly put Hansen on him. If Hansen goes to him, Kersten needs to - as a minimum - make him accountable and not let him peel off to take marks in front of Hawkins. We all know Kersten can play and he doesn't have to be a world-beater, just a few grabs and a goal or two would be nice to let them know that if they only focus on locking down on Hawkins, we have others that can make them pay. Murdoch's last few weeks have been frustrating, as he's squandered 4-5 golden goal opportunities, the kind that he has to be nailing. It's a big week for him to hurt an opponent on the scoreboard, as well as providing the usual pressure in the forward line.

Part of that pressure will be on Dal Santo and it would be interesting to see if Chris Scott might give Murdoch a defensive forward job on NDS, though I'd feel more comfortable with Bartel taking that gig. Holding NDS to less than 20 disposals and getting similar (if not better) numbers himself, would be a huge win for us.

Per NIB this week, Poodle's groin has flared again and is, like the unicorn, the mystical 2 weeks away…

And for what its worth, whilst nervous about this weeks game, I am eased slightly by the list availability we have, the memory of how close we got last year and the fact that playing 4 Sept games cost us ( winning this week will help avoid that extra game in Sept) and that its POPS 250th.

The club will not let the importance of this game for him slide nor should they. I expect effort and lots of it for 4 quarters.

And just on Scotty being cagey, a little tinker of two this week by him would not surprise me. Been training thru the last 2 months on structures etc and maybe with 5 weeks out the time to reveal a tweak or two.

Go Catters

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Per NIB this week, Poodle's groin has flared again and is, like the unicorn, the mystical 2 weeks away…

And for what its worth, whilst nervous about this weeks game, I am eased slightly by the list availability we have, the memory of how close we got last year and the fact that playing 4 Sept games cost us ( winning this week will help avoid that extra game in Sept) and that its POPS 250th.

The club will not let the importance of this game for him slide nor should they. I expect effort and lots of it for 4 quarters.

And just on Scotty being cagey, a little tinker of two this week by him would not surprise me. Been training thru the last 2 months on structures etc and maybe with 5 weeks out the time to reveal a tweak or two.

Go Catters

The club is a bit iffy when it comes to 250ths. Maybe Kelly will get the green vest to really ram home the importance of the occasion?

 

[Partridge]

And for what its worth, whilst nervous about this weeks game, I am eased slightly by the list availability we have, the memory of how close we got last year and the fact that playing 4 Sept games cost us ( winning this week will help avoid that extra game in Sept) and that its POPS 250th.

The bottom line is, you really have to do two things to have a hope of winning the premiership:

1. Finish in the top 4.
2. Win the Qualifying Final.

I'd say if you can't complete point 2, you won't win the flag. You won't even get to the Grand Final more often than not.

The club will not let the importance of this game for him slide nor should they. I expect effort and lots of it for 4 quarters.

As long as Kelly isn't the sub of course.

 

[dazbroncos]

The bottom line is, you really have to do two things to have a hope of winning the premiership:

1. Finish in the top 4.
2. Win the Qualifying Final.

I'd say if you can't complete point 2, you won't win the flag. You won't even get to the Grand Final more often than not.



As long as Kelly isn't the sub of course.

Fair chance he won't be… he hasn't missed 14 games this year….
Go Catters

 

[Partridge]

Fair chance he won't be… he hasn't missed 14 games this year….
Go Catters

Didn't kick 2 goals and have 26 touches in his 249th either.

 

[SJ]

Strong username to post content ratio

Strong join date to content ratio.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Didn't kick 2 goals and have 26 touches in his 249th either.

Not this s**t again

 

[Teriyakicat]

Strong username to post content ratio

Lol- I'm always tempted to write- "Gee, you're Cynical..."
I mentioned it once- think I got away with it

 

[The rabbi]

Lol- I'm always tempted to write- "Gee, you're Cynical..."
I mentioned it once- think I got away with it

Cynical may not appreciate that.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Lol- I'm always tempted to write- "Gee, you're Cynical..."
I mentioned it once- think I got away with it

There is a very real difference between
- useful cynicism, in the sense of a sceptical approach to anything you read, hear or see, a la the best of Partridge and
- useless cynicism, or mere jaded negativity a la the majority of posts from cynical.

Of course, the categorisation can depend upon the views of the beholder, but that's the way I see it generally.

 

[Lana]

Any specific reasons?

Guthrie (hopefully) dying

 

[Teriyakicat]

Boy, it's amazing how things look when you take them out of context, isn't it?

I had to go back and read the post again- couldn't believe I'd miss something like that!

 

[Stig_90]

So are we wearing our clash jumper this week? I like it apart from the damn tramp stamp.

 

[wodeball]

Steve J a late scratching from the Footy Show tonight. No reason given. Hope he's not sick. Half of this town seem to be down with the flu at the mo'.

 

[vinum coupe]

As long as it means Geelong wins and we get 4 more premiership points, I'm perfectly happy with that scenario. If there was ever a fortnight where the how we win doesn't matter as long as we do win, the next two games are it.

Nah. disagree mostly.
Finishing 2nd with a pop gun doesn't get me excited.

 

[vinum coupe]

Strong username to post content ratio

Bloody hell.
A 14 year old poster.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Just on the ruck set- up ( havent read the thread - so someone might have already mentioned it) but i would keep Simpson in this week - and leave Blicavs out

Simpson up until the game against GWS - i thought he has had a terrible year - but last week he looked like he was finally fully fit - he moved really well ( like last year) - and he actually did a few things other than getting tap outs - eg -kicked a couple of goals

Plus Goldstein has worried Geelong in the past with his height advantage - its interesting - Goldstein is one of those numerous players in the AFL - who plays his career best game against Geelong - outside of the Geelong game - if you read the North board - its like Goldys a hack - Goldys got concrete hands- Goldy no more

So assuming Goldstein is going to look like a superstar - we need Simpson in to combat him

I don't think they will keep Dawson in and even if they do they won't drop Blicavs (i.e. they will play all 3 rucks) as they love Blitz and he contributes more in other areas.

Dawson is just not fit enough and giving enough around the ground atm, we get almost nothing out of him after the ruck contest, and it forces us to have HMac at CHF which is worse for our structure than a 2nd key forward, and we can't not have Hamish in the side as Simpson isn't fit enough to ruck a whole game on his own. So one ruck plus Blitz is a better structure for us.

Honestly I think the only chance Dawson has of playing in the finals is if we are playing against Freo, othe than that I think his year in the seniors is done (barring Hamish getting injured)

 

[Vdubs]

I don't think they will keep Dawson in and even if they do they won't drop Blicavs (i.e. they will play all 3 rucks) as they love Blitz and he contributes more in other areas.

Dawson is just not fit enough and giving enough around the ground atm, we get almost nothing out of him after the ruck contest, and it forces us to have HMac at CHF which is worse for our structure than a 2nd key forward, and we can't not have Hamish in the side as Simpson isn't fit enough to ruck a whole game on his own. So one ruck plus Blitz is a better structure for us.

Honestly I think the only chance Dawson has of playing in the finals is if we are playing against Freo, othe than that I think his year in the seniors is done (barring Hamish getting injured)

Hamish is hardly fitter or more potent than DS. Yep, he DID play ONE very good game, but that is all.
The likelihood of HMc getting injured between now and October is very high.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Hamish is hardly fitter or more potent than DS. Yep, he DID play ONE very good game, but that is all.
The likelihood of HMc getting injured between now and October is very high.

The second is more likely than the first although Hamish has been durable this year.

Simpson is clearly not fit, it is obvious how much he is labouring around the ground compared to last year, I like his tapwork but everything other than that McIntosh and Blicavs give us more at currently. I hope Simpson can get fit soon.

 

[Vdubs]

The second is more likely than the first although Hamish has been durable this year.

Simpson is clearly not fit, it is obvious how much he is labouring around the ground compared to last year, I like his tapwork but everything other than that McIntosh and Blicavs give us more at currently. I hope Simpson can get fit soon.

Sadly, the 2 giants are not really fit even now, and early on this season they were supporting each other, almost 2 for 1, while Blic stayed on as well, or was the sub. Now, nearing September, they probably do have to make choices.
My issue is, I don't see HMc as the backup option, in preference to DS, for Blicavs, but isn't it interesting that Blicavs has become the fixed option in that trio.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Sadly, the 2 giants are not really fit even now, and early on this season they were supporting each other, almost 2 for 1, while Blic stayed on as well, or was the sub. Now, nearing September, they probably do have to make choices.
My issue is, I don't see HMc as the backup option, in preference to DS, for Blicavs, but isn't it interesting that Blicavs has become the fixed option in that trio.

Blicavs has improved a lot more than I expected a lot more quickly than I expected he would. Good on him.

 

[cynical]

Any specific reasons?

Ins: advantage to Geelong here. Two automatic best 22 players return, in Christensen and Blicavs. North will have Brown (probably replacing Black) and then one or more players who had previously been playing VFL (Anthony, Mullett, McKenzie etc.)

Venue: North loves Etihad and has consistently given the Cats problems there since 2012. Having said that, the Roos are a pretty moderate 5-3 at Etihad in 2014 and put in a shocker there in their last run against Carlton. Geelong has only played at Etihad twice in 2014, winning both times.

Form: North continues to yo-yo (though they are due to be 'up' this week). Geelong has won four straight and six of the last seven.

On the line: if Geelong loses this game, the chances of top two are on a knife's edge (would have to win the remaining four games, including against Fremantle and Hawthorn): lose this game and the Cats could easily be out of the top four by the end of the round (Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn are all expected to win and Port is probably a 50/50 prospect to beat Collingwood); win and the Cats probably just need to win one of the Fremantle/Hawthorn games and take care of business against Carlton and Brisbane and they should cruise to an MCG Qualifying Final...a critical game. There is a very remote chance that a loss could drop North out of the top eight, but the Roos only have one team in the last four games that might have something to play for (Adelaide in Hobart). The loss to Carlton made them rank outsiders for a top four finish and, regardless of the result here, North looks set to be playing an Elimination Final at the MCG. Much more at stake for Geelong.

Availability: Geelong is as close to full-strength as possible, heading into the last month of the H&A season. Of players who have been in the seniors this year, only George Burbury and Taylor Hunt are potentially missing this week (Hunt may play VFL) and neither of those two would be expected to factor in the AFL team's September campaign. North is missing vital cogs in Wells and Grima, along with senior options like Tippett, Tarrant, Nahas and McMillan

Rucks/midfield: Goldstein and Daw/Brown v McIntosh/Simpson and Blicavs. North actually had the better of the hitouts and clearances last time the teams met, though with Lonergan's early substitution, Blicavs played almost exclusively in the back half and McIntosh was playing primarily as a forward alongside Hawkins at this stage of the season. Goldstein is an All-Australian calibre ruckman and deserves respect, but I think either McIntosh or Simpson can at least make it a decent battle between the number ones and Blicavs continues to improve as a number two, where I think he has a clear edge on Daw (admittedly, I haven't seen a lot of Brown as a ruckman). When Blicavs is up against Goldstein, it is critical for him to try to work Goldstein over and see if we can get him fatigued for the last quarter, to give our boys a big advantage at the end of the game.

Christensen, Caddy and Johnson will all be inclusions to the midfield from that previous game, while North will be making changes of the Anthony in, Bastinac/Adams out variety. With Selwood, Johnson and Motlop all hitting pretty much peak form, the consistent Stokes in his second game back, Guthrie (hopefully) dying for a shot at Harvey, Christensen, Caddy and Duncan providing toughness and class, Horlin-Smith hopefully continuing a consistent season and the option of putting Bartel and Kelly in to the middle like last time (both absolutely torched North in that game), I think we should go in confident that our midfield can do the job. It's as strong as the middle of the ground has looked for us for some time, in terms of both available personnel and current form. Greenwood will probably go to Selwood or Johnson, but even if he's effective in slowing one of them down, I think we have enough quality midfielders at our disposal to overcome that, where we may not have earlier in the season. Plus, there's always the option to put Selwood/Johnson forward and let Bartel loose in the middle again. The Guthrie/Harvey match-up will be crucial and I think Guthrie is just the man for the job: he's quick, skilled, tough and he's certainly got no qualms with making Harvey hurt with a tackle or two. And, if Guthrie is effective on Harvey and Harvey spits the dummy, Guthrie is a master of hurting his opponent the other way. I'm very excited about that match-up.

In defence, we need to focus on locking down on Thomas and Petrie. This was done reasonably effectively last time, but they still managed six goals between them and Thomas, in particular always seems to kick his 3+ against us. Bews may come in as a designated Thomas stopper, but whoever does needs to focus on not getting sucked in by him. If he's going to kick goals, make him earn them. Don't gift them to him with dumb free kicks...he thrives on drawing those and he is a clinical finisher these days. Lonergan to Petrie, Taylor to Black/Daw and Rivers to Brown would be my suggested match-ups. Keep those talls to under five goals between them and we'll go a long way to winning the game.

Up forward, our most important players will be Kersten and Murdoch. Thompson will go to Hawkins again and Hawkins will be productive, provided North isn't able to double and triple team him. That's where Kersten is critical. The Roos will either match him up with someone like Firrito (and Kersten should absolutely be able to exploit that), or they'll possibly put Hansen on him. If Hansen goes to him, Kersten needs to - as a minimum - make him accountable and not let him peel off to take marks in front of Hawkins. We all know Kersten can play and he doesn't have to be a world-beater, just a few grabs and a goal or two would be nice to let them know that if they only focus on locking down on Hawkins, we have others that can make them pay. Murdoch's last few weeks have been frustrating, as he's squandered 4-5 golden goal opportunities, the kind that he has to be nailing. It's a big week for him to hurt an opponent on the scoreboard, as well as providing the usual pressure in the forward line.

Part of that pressure will be on Dal Santo and it would be interesting to see if Chris Scott might give Murdoch a defensive forward job on NDS, though I'd feel more comfortable with Bartel taking that gig. Holding NDS to less than 20 disposals and getting similar (if not better) numbers himself, would be a huge win for us.

it's a north home game and they are coming off a putrid loss to carlton

our poor clearance work means we only thrash the weakest teams

even with a pretty much full list we just aren't that good