AFL Round 19

Spads

All Australian
Aug 16, 2012
654
465
AFL Club
Collingwood
How do the Gold Coast represent value?
Alright, let me make a few points.
1. Gold Coast are 6-2 at Metricon, with the only losses being Hawthorn and Sydney.
2. Before last week the bottom placed saints were on a 12 game losing streak. Their average losing margin during the last eleven of those losses was 68 points. Let's make sure we remember further into the past than one week.
3. I don't buy the "no Gaz no Gold Coast theory." I instead buy the "gold coast tans don't like getting their hair wet in the rain theory."

I've been burnt this year by overestimating Gold Coast away from Metricon, but at home I'm still prepared to back them. The only caveat being that the weather needs to be fine.
 

TheKanga

Brownlow Medallist
May 31, 2011
17,773
12,886
Hobart
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Melbourne City
Im also liking the value the pies hold. Think they could cause a few problems for the powers defence. Expecting Reid and Elliot to much better 2nd up and also if they can get a luke ball or toovey back into the side that would help alot.

Port just seem so out of form and have been for some time now, they play away at the MCG and if pies lose this they are shot but if they win they are right back in it. Just another I see as a potential upset.


I like the Pies as well against Port.
 

tibor

Debutant
May 13, 2014
77
19
AFL Club
GWS
Id love to hear reasons why? tibor

Most of them are based on data I have analysed but i'll give some thoughts on a couple.

GWS/Rich is likely to go over I think because of what happened last time. Reiwoldt single handedly destroyed them. GWS are better these days granted, which is why I think they will score more than 41, but Richmond and reiwoldt will still run rampant. If GWS score say 60-70 (which is reasonable given their forward line of boyd and patton + goal kicking mids) then Richmond only need 120-130. Tigers are up and about at the moment, home crowd behind them, definitely capable of hitting that target.

Melb/Bris. Both teams have been tracking well below this tml for the past few rounds. Besides last week against the suns, lions don't score over 100. They just don't have the firepower up forward or the mid field strength to get it there. Last week was an anomaly because the suns sans ablett are a neafl team. Combine this with melbournes defensive mindset, and the fact they couldn't score more than 50 points against witches hats. Ok ill give them some credit, let's say 70 max. This means Brisbane need more than 95 to cover the TML over. Ain't happening. Plus it's melbourne in the winter, it'll probably rain.

Freo/Carl. Ok so the dockers got beaten by the rabble that is st kilda. Nay, they were flogged. Ross Lyon doesn't take that kind of s**t. The players will be shitting themselves in anticipation of doing their papa proud this week. In front of a subi crowd Carlton will be locked down. Waite and henderson will be useless. Their mids will be outclassed. Freos wall defence will hold strong. Carlton just won't be able to dent the scoreboard. Give them say a couple goals per quarter, 50-60 points for the game. Freo dont usdually score higher than 100-110. Only concern here for me is that Carlton totally implode and Freo cross the tml on their own lol
 
Jun 23, 2014
4,312
5,135
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
Alright, let me make a few points.
1. Gold Coast are 6-2 at Metricon, with the only losses being Hawthorn and Sydney.
2. Before last week the bottom placed saints were on a 12 game losing streak. Their average losing margin during the last eleven of those losses was 68 points. Let's make sure we remember further into the past than one week.
3. I don't buy the "no Gaz no Gold Coast theory." I instead buy the "gold coast tans don't like getting their hair wet in the rain theory."

I've been burnt this year by overestimating Gold Coast away from Metricon, but at home I'm still prepared to back them. The only caveat being that the weather needs to be fine.

Yes but they are paying what 1.33 head to head? How is that value? Unless you mean on the line?

Has it rained in every game without Ablett? That would be an almighty coincidence. Otherwise I give much more weight to the fact they are what 0-6 without him now.
 
Jun 23, 2014
4,312
5,135
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
Melb/Bris. Both teams have been tracking well below this tml for the past few rounds. Besides last week against the suns, lions don't score over 100. They just don't have the firepower up forward or the mid field strength to get it there. Last week was an anomaly because the suns sans ablett are a neafl team. Combine this with melbournes defensive mindset, and the fact they couldn't score more than 50 points against witches hats. Ok ill give them some credit, let's say 70 max. This means Brisbane need more than 95 to cover the TML over. Ain't happening. Plus it's melbourne in the winter, it'll probably rain.

Melbourne vs Brisbane game is at Etihad.
 
Frem/Carl U167.5
Syd/Ess U173.5
Adel/WCE U180.5
Richmond/GWS O188.5
North/Geel U189.5
GC/Stk U182.5
Melb/Bris U165.5
Haw/WB U188.5

Edit: Added Brisbane SU 2.25 2u (sportsbet promo)
Agree with most of these but will give you two warnings:
1. North's avg TMP at Etihad is much higher than other grounds and 4 of our last 5 games at Etihad have cleared the 189 line.
2. As a general rule, I never bet unders on a Hawks game. They are 14-3 against their TMP lines this year
 

Redacted Boner

Team Captain
Suspended
May 29, 2014
373
817
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Fitzroy, Eintracht Braunschweig
How do the Gold Coast represent value?

Regardless of the situational and statistical aspects of capping the game, I think how does odds of 1.27 represent value is a better question!
 
May 6, 2008
38,495
51,033
Sydney
AFL Club
Geelong
Yes but they are paying what 1.33 head to head? How is that value? Unless you mean on the line?

Has it rained in every game without Ablett? That would be an almighty coincidence. Otherwise I give much more weight to the fact they are what 0-6 without him now.

To say they are value at that price is quite astonishing and to say they lost that game because of the rain is ridiculous. They were 40 points down before it even started, the rain probably stopped them losing by 150. It was one of the more limp wristed performances you'll see. I have no interest in betting on a team and wondering if they will feel like trying that week.
 

alex mcanulty

Senior List
Apr 26, 2014
252
62
AFL Club
St Kilda
100 on northSU 2.45
100 on lions SU 2.25
Will mulit these to head to heads 5.52 0.5u

Will probly put 100 on saints but will wait till teams are named

But will chuck a sneaky bet on a muliti of lions saints and north head to heads of 19.56 0.2u

All with sportsbet
 
Mar 12, 2007
13,667
9,563
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
I have a feeling Gold Coast will respond and win this week, although those odds ($1.27) are ridiculous for a team that just got annihilated by Brisbane (not to mention they are playing a team that just demolished last years Grand Finalists).
 

tibor

Debutant
May 13, 2014
77
19
AFL Club
GWS
Agree with most of these but will give you two warnings:
1. North's avg TMP at Etihad is much higher than other grounds and 4 of our last 5 games at Etihad have cleared the 189 line.
2. As a general rule, I never bet unders on a Hawks game. They are 14-3 against their TMP lines this year

Yeah those two are of concern. Last time they played petrie, nahas, bastinac, thomas were the main scorers. Nahas is out, bastinac's form is woeful, petrie has been kept quiet since the hawks game, thomas being the only real concern. Hawkins seems to give north a problem, granted. With swallow and johnson back since they last played the battle in the midfield will be a lot tighter I think it'll go close, but i'm leaning toward the under. It'll go 220+ watch.
 
Aug 15, 2011
23,780
8,380
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
5U Melbourne/Brisbane Under 165.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)

Agree with tibor, Lions just don't have any forwards and Melbourne play a really defensive game.
Can you tell me how many games at Etihad his season have gone 165 or less?

I think its been just 4 since Round 3:(
 
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tibor

Debutant
May 13, 2014
77
19
AFL Club
GWS
Can you tell me how many games at Etihad his season have gone 165 or less?

I think its been just 4 since Round 3:(

It's too simplistic to say it's at etihad, it's going to be high scoring. The ground can definitely bring out the potential of a team to score well, but that doesn't mean it will.
 
Aug 15, 2011
23,780
8,380
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
It's too simplistic to say it's at etihad, it's going to be high scoring. The ground can definitely bring out the potential of a team to score well, but that doesn't mean it will.
stats don't lie. Id be avoiding even though im probably leaning unders will look for better bets.
 
Aug 15, 2011
23,780
8,380
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
SC Bets
0.25U Ballantyne <81.5 SC @1.87
0.25U Jaeger Omeara <105.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Stokes <108.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Hodge <99.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Wines <106.5 SC @1.75

All these players this year have only covered about 25-35%.

Raising Unit size after a successful week, last week.
 
Aug 15, 2011
23,780
8,380
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
Melbourne average 61 points for and 83 against and the Lions average 67 and 99 against. There are some more stats for you. I like this bet.
Considering 4 of the last 30 games played at ES have gone under, I wouldn't be touching it for that very reason. Yes both teams score poorly but they wouldn't be at this ground would they?

Stkilda vs Freo last week (Both poor scoring teams, covered easily).

Carl vs Stkilda both avg/poor scoring sides and more defensive than anything, score over 200
 
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BloodRet

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 25, 2013
14,237
21,696
Laughing at all the minnows
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
Sydney H2H
Adelaide/WCE U180.5
St Kilda 1-39
NM H2H
Brisbane H2H

1U @ 51.48

1.25U Carlton +32.5 @ 1.92
1.25U Freo Carlton U167.5
3.75U Brisbane H2H @ 2.20
2U North H2H @ 2.45
1.25U Hawthorn -35.5 @ 1.92
2.5U St Kilda H2H @ 3.35
 

tibor

Debutant
May 13, 2014
77
19
AFL Club
GWS
Considering 4 of the last 30 games played at ES have gone under, I wouldn't be touching it for that very reason. Yes both teams score poorly but they wouldn't be at this ground would they?

Stkilda vs Freo last week (Both poor scoreing teams, covered easily).

Carl vs Stkilda both avg/poor scoreing sides and more defensive than anything, score over 200

Look at the teams who call Etihad home. North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Essendon, Carlton, Western Bulldogs. These teams are typically involved in high scoring games. Not necessarily kicking huge scores themselves, but are involved in games that have a higher total score. The idea that Etihad is a high scoring ground is likely a product of the lack of weather and more importantly the quality of the teams who regularly play there.

Brisbane and Melbourne's play style, player roster and ability don't change because of the lack of weather or the ground they play on. At the end of the day Melbourne still have an overly defensive game plan and Brisbane still have a mediocre forward line and midfield.
 

TheKanga

Brownlow Medallist
May 31, 2011
17,773
12,886
Hobart
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Melbourne City
Just read it's James Kelly's 250th game for Geelong this weekend.

Why do we always have to get the milestone games :(
 

dez32

Rookie
Jul 29, 2014
27
38
AFL Club
Geelong
Could anyone suggest the best 3 bets for this round priced over $1.90 each?. I was thinking: Syd -26.5, Bris +7.5 & Fre -32.5. Trying to get $7 odds so doesn't have to be line margins, could be under/over or 1-39 etc.
 
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