AFL Round 22

Remove this Banner Ad

Aug 20, 2013
20,193
23,806
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Celtics , England FC
Port Adelaide $1.51 vs Carlton $2.50
North Melbourne $1.46 vs Adelaide $2.65
Essendon $1.16 vs Gold Coast $5
GWS $2.80 vs Collingwood $1.42
Hawthorn $1.65 vs Geelong $2.20
West Coast $1.03 vs Melbourne $11
Brisbane $4.50 vs Fremantle $1.18
Western Bulldogs $5.50 vs Sydney $1.13
Richmond $1.10vs St Kilda $6.50

Thoughts

Port vs Carlton (I'm picking Port due to the home advantage however Carlton have been in very good form of late Waite and Judd have been stepping up. They were unlucky with the calls in the Geelong and Freo game to say the least. Port have won 2 of their last 7 games against Melbourne and Gold Coast. Carlton at $2.50 is great odds.

North vs Adelaide (Adelaide have been having that WLWLW streak going at the moment. We are unpredictable at the moment. We have lost at home recently but won away. Kerridge ;) is due to come back this week. The crows backline is bleak since Hartigan and Otten have gone down so it wouldn't surprise me if the North talls exploit us. North have been in decent form of late after dismantling the dogs. Adelaide at $2.65 is worth a punt since we are due for a W ;)

Essendon vs Gold Coast ( Essendon will win comfortably I will be backing a 40+ margin for this. Gold Coast has been a rabble ever since Ablett has been injured. Heppell has been in excellent form so I might back him to get 35+ disposals.

GWS vs Collingwood ( GWS won by a comfortable margin against Melbourne , whilst Collingwood got heavily defeated against Brisbane a team who lost by 105 points the week before. Collingwood will be without Beams , Pendlebury , Elliott , Cloke and Reid. Their team is in disarray. They have no forward line to score any goals. I expect GWS to win at home and make it two in a row.

Hawthorn vs Geelong (I'm not playing on this one as I expect a game to go either way.)

West Coast vs Melbourne (Yeah this is going to be a smashing , I will be backing them to win by 60+ points. I am going to have Kennedy to score 5+ goals against a low side)

Brisbane vs Freo (I expect Brisbane to give Freo a difficult time however Freo will prevail in the end. The odds for both sides are about right.)

Bulldogs vs Sydney (Sydney to win comfortably. I think the forward line of Goodes , Buddy and Tippett will cause headaches. I think buddy will score a bag of goals)

Richmond vs St Kilda (Richmond will easily win this week. I can't see St Kilda getting close at all. Richmond will maintain their streaks. I will expect Ellis and Miles to be off the chain and gain 30+ disposals against their name)
 
It wouldn't surprise me if the Saints took it right up to Richmond. Tigers will still win but I reckon 1-39 would be a solid bet. Hayes' last game in Melbourne, plus Richmond will be focusing on the Sydney game.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Early thoughts -

- I like the Port line (-12.5), Carlton will struggle next week with injuries.
- I like North to beat Adelaide in Hobart, Probably unders (1-39) & line (-14.5) would be a good bet.
- Essendon at the line (-33.5), I think the Suns are done for the year.
- GWS at the line (+16.5) & at the margin 1-39, you can pick up 13.00 at the moment for GWS 40+
- WCE will absolutely destroy Melbourne at home, the line of (-58.5) looks solid.
- Not betting on Hawks/Geelong, Geelong get armchair rides for the umps so not touching it.
- Sydney at the line (-35.5) over the Dogs.
 
Early thoughts -

- I like the Port line (-12.5), Carlton will struggle next week with injuries.
- I like North to beat Adelaide in Hobart, Probably unders (1-39) & line (-14.5) would be a good bet.
- Essendon at the line (-33.5), I think the Suns are done for the year.
- GWS at the line (+16.5) & at the margin 1-39, you can pick up 13.00 at the moment for GWS 40+
- WCE will absolutely destroy Melbourne at home, the line of (-58.5) looks solid.
- Not betting on Hawks/Geelong, Geelong get armchair rides for the umps so not touching it.
- Sydney at the line (-35.5) over the Dogs.

I would watch out for Kerridge ;)
 
Has teared us a new one lately.
We need to pay you back for ''the comeback'' last year. ;)
Probably the two most inconsistent teams in the league so might be best to steer clear!

When I bet with my team I lose so I am staying clear of it haha

That game where we played wce cost me my multi
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Are we sure that % isn't taken into account ??? And team who finishes 18th marked as winner ??

Market down now also ???
 
Are we sure that % isn't taken into account ??? And team who finishes 18th marked as winner ??

Market down now also ???

Yeah I checked with bet365 and Sportsbet and the dead heat rule applies, percentage doesn't come into it.

Sportsbet still have Melbourne for 4.50 which is still good value IMO. Considering putting more money on them.
 
Got confirmation today from [Sportsbet] via email that the 'LEAST WINS market' will not split the odds in a dead heat and will be 18th ladder position only:

"Dear Rob,

Thank you for your email.
Yes, if there is a dead heat between 2 teams at the end of AFL season we do take percentage into account."

Kind Regards,
Sportsbet Team "


Well I would double check after reading this during the wkend.
 
A little pissed off with last weekend. Had a few stakes on Podsiadly or Betts to kick the most goals. Betstar originally paid out in full as there were six individual goal scorers each with two goals, however I checked my account again this morning and it seems as though they've reverted that and divided the dividend between the number of winners. I was originally ~7 stakes up for the weekend, this has brought it down to just over two.


Couple of early ones ..

Geelong WIN - $5 @ 2.15 (Betstar - bonus bet)
GWS WIN - $5 @ 2.60 (Betstar - bonus bet)

Multi:

Greater Western Sydney v Collingwood Line Greater Western Sydney (+16.5)
West Coast v Melbourne Line West Coast (-58.5)
Hawthorn v Geelong Margin Geelong 1-39
Western Bulldogs v Sydney Head to Head Sydney

0.5U @ $10.83 (Sportsbet)
 
Got confirmation today from [Sportsbet] via email that the 'LEAST WINS market' will not split the odds in a dead heat and will be 18th ladder position only:

"Dear Rob,

Thank you for your email.
Yes, if there is a dead heat between 2 teams at the end of AFL season we do take percentage into account."

Kind Regards,
Sportsbet Team "


Well I would double check after reading this during the wkend.

I got confirmation from Sportsbet that the dead heat rule will apply and percentage doesn't matter.
 
Josh: In the event of that occurring, currently it's both St.Kilda and Melbourne on equal least wins, the dividend would be halved.
James: So percentage doesn't matter?
Josh: % is irrelevant, as it is a least wins market.
James: Ok thank you.

Just had a live chat with them (I am James).
 
Got confirmation today from [Sportsbet] via email that the 'LEAST WINS market' will not split the odds in a dead heat and will be 18th ladder position only:

"Dear Rob,

Thank you for your email.
Yes, if there is a dead heat between 2 teams at the end of AFL season we do take percentage into account."

Kind Regards,
Sportsbet Team "


Well I would double check after reading this during the wkend.

That can't be right.

Sportsbet are going to find themselves in the middle of a sh*t storm in 2 weeks time. They seem to be telling different people different things.

You only need one idiot to think instead of know and it confuses people. I see no way it can go on percentage when you call it 'least wins market' . IMO it should still be the wooden spoon market and just put a * in the terms and conditions so that they don't have a situation like last year. No one wants to be paid out 50% or 33% on a long term bet. I think there is a better solution than least wins.
 
Early TML plays

Port/Carl U174.5
Ess/GC U182.5
Haw/Gee U188.5
WC/Melb U170.5
GWS/Coll U182.5 (10 point discrepancy between sportsbet and bet365. middling opportunity)

Also love the giants line. Big confidence boost with their win at the G and Collingwood are imploding.
 
So with this whole least wins debate. If you get on melb at 4.5 an its a dead heat and percentage doesn't effect it. You get 2.25 dollar odds right? Or reading it wrong
 
So with this whole least wins debate. If you get on melb at 4.5 an its a dead heat and percentage doesn't effect it. You get 2.25 dollar odds right? Or reading it wrong
Correct
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top