AFL Round 23

[TheKanga]

Final round of the H&A season is here

Collingwood - 6.50
vs.
Hawthorn - 1.09

Line - 45.5

Carlton - 2.85
vs.
Essendon - 1.40

Line - 18.5

Fremantle - 1.37
vs.
Port Adelaide - 3.00

Line - 18.5

Sydney - 1.38
vs.
Richmond - 3.00

Line - 21.5

North Melbourne - 1.10
vs.
Melbourne - 6.25

Line - 44.5

Geelong - 1.12
vs.
Brisbane - 5.25

Line - 40.5

Gold Coast - 3.05
vs.
West Coast - 1.35

Line - 20.5

Adelaide - 1.05
vs.
St Kilda - 9.00

Line - 52.5

Western Bulldogs - 1.30
vs.
GWS - 3.30

Line - 22.5

 

[TheKanga]

Early thoughts

Hawks will cover that line as the Pies will be fielding their VFL side basically.
I think they are still a chance for top spot as well which gives them some incentive.

I like Essendon to cover that line and win 40+
They will want to take some form into finals and Carlton have injury worries.
They flogged them earlier in the season as well.

Port/Freo is a tough game to pick, will be steering clear of it for now.
However I am leaning towards Port for the upset.

Sydney/Richmond huge game, will wait for teams on this.
Sydney might rest some players as it really is a nothing game for them.

North should win 40+/cover line over the Dees at Etihad.
The Dees haven't won there since 2006.
They also have travel from Perth to contend with.
North will also regain Wells from suspension.

I like Brisbane at the line against Geelong.
Worrying signs for the Cats in the Hawks game.
Their coach also hinted they would be resting some players.

West Coast at the line and 1-39 over Suns seems the way to go.
Suns won't be flogged at home but WCE has enough incentive to win.

Adelaide blew their chance for finals footy.
I like Saints at the line in Lenny Hayes farewell match.

Western Bulldogs/GWS is a nothing game, not interested.

 

[Anzac16]

Hawks vs Collingwood

Like the Hawks at the line here if anything. Would want to wait and see teams first before making a call. Not sure if there is enough value in that line anyway. Hawks might take the foot off the pedal a bit to take it easy going into the finals.

Carlton vs Essendon

Love the Essendon line here. We were disgraceful on Friday night, and with a fair few injuries we might not play to well. Wouldn't be surprised to see the line slide out to closer to 4 goals during the week.

Fremantle vs Port

Port should come out strong in this match. Expect it to be a very close contest. Port line is where the money is.

Sydney vs Richmond

Will stay clear of this game unless something bobs up later in the week. Too hard to read into what will happen.

North vs Melbourne

North should smash them to put it bluntly. Will want to take some good form into finals.

Geelong vs Brisbane

Really like the Lions line here. Geelong have been average at best even with all their wins. Expect that they will be vulnerable and the Lions have improved massively in the back half of this year. Might even have a little nibble at them for the win.

West Coast vs Gold Coast

Expect West Coast to come out all guns blazing in this match and try and score a big win with a finals spot looming for them. Gold Coast at home is the worry, but think WC will be too strong.

Adelaide vs St. Kilda

Crows should win this comfortably on paper, but who knows with this team. Probably a game I won't go near.

Western Bulldogs vs GWS

Like TheKanga said above, its a bit of a nothing game. Not sure if there is enough value either way. Only thought is the Dogs 1-39.

 

[Keystone agony]

Quick quick thoughts

Essendon havnt smashed anyone for a long time this year. The Carlton game will be strange, theyd still love to take something from the year and beat the dons id say. Its almost a must avoid. I can see the dons by 60+ but also Carlton winning.

Syd vs Rich is where there might be value. Youd probably want to get on the tiggies before teams i can only see them coming in ie: Syd rest a few/ D.Martin possibly back in. I doubt Sydney want to allow a team into the 8 that they could well be playing 2nd week if they lose and the tigers continue the 10 win streak run.

Stkilda offer value if either Rich win the day before or WCE are dominating the morning before. Adelaide would be playing for nothing and id say Dangerifeld would almost certainly not play and either would ST. It is Ruttens send off game though.

WBD vs GWS, tipping if i need one to gain late (ie last game) ill likely throw to the Giants. However Gias send off, GWS injuries and tough game week before in the rain should see the dogs home.

Freo vs Port another tough game. Almost willing to go wire to wire. Freo really need pavlich to play. Port have been good at subi recently and have the running side that would love the big oval. What a game it will be.

North should win, however its a dead rubber/mean nothing game for them aswell. Do they rest? They can only finish 6th.

 

[Keystone agony]

FWIW I have $180 on Melb to finish last @8

Thinking of doing a heavy multi on Melbourne and Adelaide to win. (However if Melb and Saints both win i lose massive).

might be too risky

 

[TheKanga]

Quick quick thoughts

Essendon havnt smashed anyone for a long time this year. The Carlton game will be strange, theyd still love to take something from the year and beat the dons id say. Its almost a must avoid. I can see the dons by 60+ but also Carlton winning.

Syd vs Rich is where there might be value. Youd probably want to get on the tiggies before teams i can only see them coming in ie: Syd rest a few/ D.Martin possibly back in. I doubt Sydney want to allow a team into the 8 that they could well be playing 2nd week if they lose and the tigers continue the 10 win streak run.

Stkilda offer value if either Rich win the day before or WCE are dominating the morning before. Adelaide would be playing for nothing and id say Dangerifeld would almost certainly not play and either would ST. It is Ruttens send off game though.

WBD vs GWS, tipping if i need one to gain late (ie last game) ill likely throw to the Giants. However Gias send off, GWS injuries and tough game week before in the rain should see the dogs home.

Freo vs Port another tough game. Almost willing to go wire to wire. Freo really need pavlich to play. Port have been good at subi recently and have the running side that would love the big oval. What a game it will be.

North should win, however its a dead rubber/mean nothing game for them aswell. Do they rest? They can only finish 6th.

I don't think we will tinker with side to much, we aren't a Hawthorn or Sydney who can afford to do that.
Might see Mason Wood debut so maybe Black or Thomas will have a rest.
Mcdonald might also get a spell before finals.
Will be good for Wells to get another game under his belt leading into finals.

 

[TheKanga]

Hawthorn (-45.5)
Essendon (-18.5)
Brisbane (+40.5)
North (-44.5)
St Kilda (+52.5)

0.5u @ 21.67

 

[Keystone agony]

I don't think we will tinker with side to much, we aren't a Hawthorn or Sydney who can afford to do that.
Might see Mason Wood debut so maybe Black or Thomas will have a rest.
Mcdonald might also get a spell before finals.
Will be good for Wells to get another game under his belt leading into finals.

It wont be a 8 man drop, only freo do that.

2-3 man drop. As you said Thomas, Mcdonald ect would be leading candidates.

 

[Keystone agony]

Will be a tough week for betting.

Id be getting on some beltings. WBD 40+, Hawks 80+, Geel 60-80+, Ess 60+ (If Carlisle plays)

 

[Small Moves]

Tough week indeed.

Might try my luck at some DT bets or exotics. Will have to do some research throughout the week.

 

[TheKanga]

Will be a tough week for betting.

Id be getting on some beltings. WBD 40+, Hawks 80+, Geel 60-80+, Ess 60+ (If Carlisle plays)

Agree with all of that, except I'm not so sure the Cats will belt Brisbane.
Just got a feeling it could be a close and scrappy game with Geelong just going through the motions.

 

[Small Moves]

Agree with all of that, except I'm not so sure the Cats will belt Brisbane.
Just got a feeling it could be a close and scrappy game with Geelong just going through the motions.

That's the only one. I think 40.5 is a bit much.

 

[Zealbee]

Not touching anything this week until teams come out. Too much guess work.

 

[Zealbee]

2.5U on Hawthorn -44.5 and Sydney -20.5 @ 3.61 (Bookmaker)

Sydney won't be resting anyone and should in fact gain back some stars for this game and Collingwood just don't have anyone fit for this game.

 

[Robo87]

Ppl expecting the port line to come in? Thinking of getting on early.

 

[Sketi]

First thought I like is Freo 1-39

 

[tibor]

Coll/Haw U190.5
Syd/Rich U173.5
North/Melb U169.5
Geel/Bris U182.5
GC/WC U185.5
Adel/Stk O182.5 (Opened at 182.5, now up to 190.5. Second week in a row i've got one of these before a massive change. Sportsbet are notorious for it. Had 190.5 as a no bet)
WB/GWS U181.5

Added:

Ess SU/Haw Wire2Wire 1u @ 2
Frem SU/North WW 1u @ 2
Adel WW/Geel WW 1u @ 2.1

 

[Keystone agony]

Not touching anything this week until teams come out. Too much guess work.

2.5U on Hawthorn -44.5 and Sydney -20.5 @ 3.61 (Bookmaker)

Sydney won't be resting anyone and should in fact gain back some stars for this game and Collingwood just don't have anyone fit for this game.

I had to have a chuckle

 

[Zealbee]

I had to have a chuckle

John Longmire took the guess work out of it for me and Collingwood have injuries so a contradiction of sorts but not betting on games where teams will be anyone's guess.

 

[Keystone agony]

John Longmire took the guess work out of it for me and Collingwood have injuries so a contradiction of sorts but not betting on games where teams will be anyone's guess.

Never believe coaches.

"I wont rest players" means anyone with a slight niggle/complaint wont play. Not rested but injured/managed.

Read between the lines ha

 

[Zealbee]

Never believe coaches.

"I wont rest players" means anyone with a slight niggle/complaint wont play. Not rested but injured/managed.

Read between the lines ha

Longmire better not have been lying to me.

 

[Small Moves]

Bit the bullet and put a few early ones on. I'm staying right away from the Adelaide game. I don't want them to win!!

North Melbourne (-46.5) - 2U @ 1.92 - North should cover the line. West Coast covered 59.5 last week, I see no reason why North can't do the same.

Essendon (-18.5) - 1.5U @ 1.92 - Essendon pumped them earlier in the year and should get Heppell back too. Carlton were horrid last week and I can't see them taking it up to a finals bound team in Essendon.

Hawthorn (-47.5) - 2U @ 1.92 - Collingwood were no good against GWS last week and before that they were coming off multiple 10+ goal thumpings at the hands of West Coast and Brisbane. I'd say Hawthorn would like to top the season off with a strong win to try and pull top spot. Hawthorn have won all of the past five against Collingwood with an average winning margin of 38 points. Considering Collingwood will effectively be fielding a VFL team this week, Hawthorn should cover this.

 

[Keystone agony]

Longmire better not have been lying to me.

Not lying, telling the truth (female style).

 

[The GOAT]

Not sure about the Hawks line. I know Collingwood are weakened but we have nothing to play for. Might just coast to a bruise-free 5 goal win

 

[Big Fozza]

Not touching anything this week until teams come out. Too much guess work.

2.5U on Hawthorn -44.5 and Sydney -20.5 @ 3.61 (Bookmaker)

Sydney won't be resting anyone and should in fact gain back some stars for this game and Collingwood just don't have anyone fit for this game.

haha that too a whole 3 hours