AFL round 3

Discussion in 'Punting Board' started by yamahamoto, Apr 10, 2012.

Put it out there
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  1. CAB12

    CAB12 Team Captain

    Richmond
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    The TAB special with Pis and Blues both kick over 13 oals as mentioned above seems tasty.

    Good way to get involved in the game and as I predict it will be close, high scoring would be a bonus here.
     

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  2. lamaros

    lamaros Norm Smith Medallist

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    Nah, not that much. ;) Just going conservative while I stick my toe in.

    I will take your recommendation under advisement, I haven't locked in anything yet.
     
  3. KardiniaPark

    KardiniaPark Brownlow Medallist

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    If its a $100 free bet you will only get $38 back you know that right?
     
  4. hirdy05

    hirdy05 Debutant

    Essendon
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    Hi All,

    My multi for this week:

    Pies H2H
    Dogs Under 40
    Bombers 25+
    Hawks 15+
    $300 @ $10.08

    Cheers
     
  5. Lensen

    Lensen You've ruined the act, GOB

    Collingwood
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    Anyone jumping on the $5 for Cloke to kick 5+ tonight in the Centrebet Hour of Power?

    I'm not, I don't think its value, so that probably means its a cert :thumbsu:
     
  6. Nagoya Roos

    Nagoya Roos Debutant

    North Melbourne
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    -Carlton under 40
    -Sydney under 40
    -St.Kilda under 40
    -Brisbane +62.5
    $50 @ 20.10

    Good luck fellas
     
  7. baywatch5

    baywatch5 Club Legend

    Geelong
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    AFL : 15-12-0 (+2.45u @ 55.6%)

    ROUND 3 - FRIDAY NIGHT

    Collingwood v Carlton
    ML - MAGPIES (x1)

    I'm taking advantage of Sportsbets "Friday the 13th" offer here that in h2h bets if your team losses by >13 you get your money back. So in effect have a 13pt safety net which I love in this match!

    Carlton are flying and the Pies are just going. Well that's the perception out their. Sure the Blues deserve to be favourites here but what have they actually done? Lost all NAB games and beaten Richmond and Brisbane. This is a bit of a step up here. Collingwood themselves haven't set the world on fire, Beating Richmond also and losing to the Hawks in round 1.

    The Magpies do bring a few handy players back for this one, Maxwell and Wellingham in particular. Maxwell's leadership shouldn't be underestimated, he is the general down back and when that voice is missing it can affect some players more than you might think. I expect Heath Shaw and Harry O are glad to have their skipper out their this week.

    Wellingham just adds more depth to an already deep midfield group. This is area Carlton will struggle to match. Don't get me wrong the Blues top 4 or 5 are top shelf. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Scotland and even Simpson. But its the next 3 or 4 that will struggle to match the Pies depth of Swan, Penddlebury, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams and even Shaw. If the Blues can break even here they will be doing well.

    Another area of concern I have is how Carlton stop Cloke and Dawes? sure Jameson is the obvious match up but he is playing his first game back and will get burnt by either! Henderson and Bower? not feeling real confident with either. One other small factor that is in Collingwoods favour is the travel. They haven't had to at all and the Blues are returning from Brissy. Carlton over the past 2 seasons are 2-10 SU against the top 4 sides. Have they taken the next step? I like the Pies to win a close one tonight and are value with the Sportsbet Special!
    (1.0u @ 2.06 @ Sportsbet)

    OTHER GAMES
    *SWANS -13.5 (x2)

    and only leans at this stage are
    *CROWS +30
    *1ST H - CATS -13.5
     
  8. yamahamoto

    yamahamoto Team Captain

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    Does this sportsbet offer has a limit or you can bet as much as you want? Tooo good to be true...
     
  9. Lensen

    Lensen You've ruined the act, GOB

    Collingwood
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    $100.00
     
  10. Veroldin

    Veroldin Senior List

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    yep $100 limit and this offer makes the pies good value at 2.05 IMO
     
  11. KardiniaPark

    KardiniaPark Brownlow Medallist

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    lolwut, if he kicks 5 goals he will win he MGS that is paying $4.75 anyway. Its hardly ridiculous overs.
     

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  12. jpower

    jpower Debutant

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    Just out of curiosity, if you were to make a multi bet involving the CARL/COLL match, would you then be able to take advantage of the Fri 13th promo by betting H2H on the match?


    AFL Money Back Special Terms:

    1. The Offer applies to Carlton v Collingwood. Only the 1st bet placed on the match will be deemed eligible for the Offer. The 1st wager must be placed on the Head to Head market prior to the start of the match to be eligible for the Offer.


    does this suggest that it would not count?
     
  13. Keystone agony

    Keystone agony Norm Smith Medallist

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    Not on a 9 leg multi this week. Not sure why i didnt.

    Collingwood are coming in at value now where as i got on them when they were paying 2.10 for a win. Id plus them in at 31.5, Tiggies just to win, Noth +61.5, WCE over 39.5 (sorry they aren't allowing PYOL on this game), Essendon over 15.5, Hawks win, WBD +34.5 (again i got on them when they were paying 2.75 for a win), Port +39.5 (again on at 2.75 for win), freo -20.5.

    Try that in a multi pretty safe IMO. Im going safe this week, the value is getting less and less as the years go on, always why round 1 is the best round to bet on if you can analyse the NAB cup well enough.

    The biggest worries with the above would be Pies and richmond. The rest are very very likely for me.
     
  14. foxy_dal

    foxy_dal Premium Gold

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    Number 4 in the T&C's

    Free Bets placed on a selection are excluded for the Offer. Multibet wagers are excluded from the Offer.
     
  15. getthefooty

    getthefooty Norm Smith Medallist

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    Pies under 39 and Sydney -14.5 at $5 for me.

    Gave GWS +99.5 more than a passing thought, Eagles team isn't exactly the strongest and have a feeling they will ease to a 60-70 point win.
     
  16. jpower

    jpower Debutant

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    Sorry, I meant...

    Make a multi bet (which happens to involve those teams)

    then decide later on to bet on the match H2H as a separate bet. (taking advantage of the either side by 13 promo)

    Unless of course you were saying that multi bet doesn't count as a bet in this case and the H2H bet would count as your 1st wager on the game...

    sorry if im not making sense, Fri afternoon .. my brain is dead.
     
  17. Lensen

    Lensen You've ruined the act, GOB

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    your comprehension skills are on a par with my MGS selection skills
     
  18. foxy_dal

    foxy_dal Premium Gold

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    I think the bolded part would be your answer. First H2H bet as you said and the multi would not have any involvement in the promo.
     
  19. jpower

    jpower Debutant

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    cheers Fd.

    my bet for the round

    West Coast Over 39.5
    Collingwood (+29.5)
    Port Adelaide (+39.5)
    Adelaide (+60.5)
    Geelong WIN
    Essendon Over 15.5 Points
    Western Bulldogs (+34.5)
    Fremantle (-18.5)

    at $8ish odds

    good luck :thumbsu:
     
  20. laam

    laam All Australian

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    2u collingwood win @2.03 with sports bets refund I margin less than 13
    2u kruezer>82.5 in DT @1.87
     
  21. sneak

    sneak Team Captain

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    now into $2.30
     
  22. X_box_X

    X_box_X Brownlow Medallist

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    $29 on:

    Port Adelaide (+42.5) @ $1.25
    Brisbane (+64.5) @ $1.33
    Bulldogs (+32.5) @ $1.37
    Adelaide (+35.5) @ $1.67
    North (+44.5) @ $1.45

    $5.51

    ___________

    $20 on:
    Port (+24.5) @ $1.58
    Bulldogs (+24.5) @ $1.53
    Adelaide (+31.5) @ $1.81
    North (+36.5) @1.67

    $7.30
     
  23. lamaros

    lamaros Norm Smith Medallist

    Essendon
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    Collingwood (1-39) @ $2.72
    Essendon (-58.5) @ $2.14
    Hawks (-29.5) @ $1.95
     
  24. Lensen

    Lensen You've ruined the act, GOB

    Collingwood
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    Saturday most goals to back or fade as you wish:

    0.42 units A.Maric @ $34 (TAB)
    0.58 units Nahas @ $12 (Centrebet)

    1 unit Gray @ $10 (IAS)

    1 unit Banfield @ $21 (Sportingbet)

    1 unit Reimers @ $9 (IAS)

    0.5 units C.Smith @ $21 (Sportingbet)
    0.5 units Giansiracusa @ $9 (Sportsbet)
     
  25. eastcoastcrow

    eastcoastcrow Club Legend

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    This is in response to the link below.

    If I was a billionaire lol then I would consider the $1M bet.

    That really is just poor judgement, the bottom line is the bookies are happy to take that, as the theory of gamblers ruin that eventually he will go bust when you continue to bet at those odds.

    I wouldnt dare consider that bet whatsoever $1.01 is just not worth the time to include in any multi or H-H. Its a suckers bet IMO.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/million-riding-on-giants-loss/story-e6frf9jf-1226326006473

    I think there is much safer ways to win $10k though I dont necesarily think that this is the round to do it.

    Hmmm if Eagles fail to make it to the game, the points go the Giants correct?

    So would this mean that the Giants won?
     
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