AFL round 3

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Just done 2 more bets and will probably get nailed for them. Just trying to get the value and actually what i think is a good chance of happening.

Coll under 39.5
Rich over 39.5
Freo over 39.5
Port under 39.5
Ess over 39.5
Eagles over 39.5
WBD under 39.5

$10
= $1.9k

Carl under 39.5
Rich over 39.5
Freo over 39.5
Eagles over 39.5
Ess over 39.5
Port under 39.5

$10
= $515 return

My other bet has WBD +34.5, Port +39.5 and Rich just to win.
 
Why does the pick your own line stop at 124.5 at $1.33 for GWS? Bookies don't want to offer 160? Not that I would bet on it just wondering.
 
GWS +105.5 @ $1.91
Nth Melb +31.5 @ $1.91
Pies @ $2.05
Adelaide + 29.5 @ $1.91

1u for each

Probably should have waited for teams but I don't think the lines will move too much.
 
Anyone else think Port paying $4 at (+42) with a win already under their belt is good value?

Lets say they win 8 more games, nothing special. That means they finish up on 76 from a possible 88. That should win it with 5 really strong teams at the top they are all going to share wins and losses against each other eg: Hawks beat pies, cats beat hawks then blues vs pies this week and dont surprise to see a few rested possibly in round 23 for a loss, always a chance?

Also Hawks top victorian team paying $4.50 (Carlton seem way unders although i rate them) but not that highly.

Sam Reid kicked 3 goals in a quarter and a bit before injury to his shoulder. He also went on to miss 2-3 goals. If he can get any decent accuracy surely $151 is paying overs when you have guys like Dangerfield paying $67.

Thoughts, wasnt sure where to post this.
 
Keystone agony said:
Anyone else think Port paying $4 at (+42) with a win already under their belt is good value?

Lets say they win 8 more games, nothing special. That means they finish up on 76 from a possible 88. That should win it with 5 really strong teams at the top they are all going to share wins and losses against each other eg: Hawks beat pies, cats beat hawks then blues vs pies this week and dont surprise to see a few rested possibly in round 23 for a loss, always a chance?

Also Hawks top victorian team paying $4.50 (Carlton seem way unders although i rate them) but not that highly.

Sam Reid kicked 3 goals in a quarter and a bit before injury to his shoulder. He also went on to miss 2-3 goals. If he can get any decent accuracy surely $151 is paying overs when you have guys like Dangerfield paying $67.

Thoughts, wasnt sure where to post this.
Click to expand...


.....Have you been drinking?
 
You are talking most premiership points? I would think a couple of those top5 would win 19 games with one winning 20? Port have no doubt improved but to win 9-10 games might be a bit much to ask, this seems more like the season of honourable losses to me so I think they may struggle. I'm not sure $4 and waiting 6 months is ideal. As for Hawthorn they are a good a chance as any to finish top but it's so tight at the top and 4 of them are Vic teams so I'd stay away from that as well.
Maybe go through ports draw and see the teams they play in Adelaide, if they get those lower ranked teams at home maybe they can sneak in but even so the $4 probably isn't value.
 
I tell ya, people are underestimating Port.

They play GC and GWS once each. They also play Dogs and Melbourne away.(3/4 wins)

At FP
vs Adelaide (twice) - love playing those crows
vs Syd, Rich, North, Ess, Brisbane, freo, eagles, hawks,

I also didnt mind the Hawks paying +6 premiership points. They are paying $11. Looking back the hawks are probably the better value.

Did a little research, not much

2011 top team Pies (80 points)
2010 (68 points)
2009 (80 points)
2008 (84 points)
2007 (72 points)

Collingwood are +0 and have a tough draw playing carlton, geel, WCE and hawks all twice from memory


Edit: Seriously thinking hawks +6 for most premiership points into Pendles/Selwood/Watson for brownlow i
 

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Keystone agony said:
I tell ya, people are underestimating Port.

They play GC and GWS once each. They also play Dogs and Melbourne away.(3/4 wins)

At FP
vs Adelaide (twice) - love playing those crows
vs Syd, Rich, North, Ess, Brisbane, freo, eagles, hawks,

I also didnt mind the Hawks paying +6 premiership points. They are paying $11. Looking back the hawks are probably the better value.

Did a little research, not much

2011 top team Pies (80 points)
2010 (68 points)
2009 (80 points)
2008 (84 points)
2007 (72 points)

Collingwood are +0 and have a tough draw playing carlton, geel, WCE and hawks all twice from memory


Edit: Seriously thinking hawks +6 for most premiership points into Pendles/Selwood/Watson for brownlow i
Click to expand...

Doesnt everyone play every team at least once lol
 
GWS +102.5 after WCE announced lineups is a great spot. Will close below 90, and IMO should be about 70.

I also like GC +58.5 and Lions +45.5. Bock is huge for GC, while the Lions won't be crippled by inadequate rest this round. Brown and Drummond are nett gains against the loss of Black.

This is a week for the dogs
 
Thedeftouch said:
GWS +102.5 after WCE announced lineups is a great spot. Will close below 90, and IMO should be about 70.

I also like GC +58.5 and Lions +45.5. Bock is huge for GC, while the Lions won't be crippled by inadequate rest this round. Brown and Drummond are nett gains against the loss of Black.

This is a week for the dogs
Click to expand...

The loss of Black is far more important imo. Attention shifts to Rockliff and they lose the class of Black who can play through a tag. Drummond could possibly come back in as a sub as well. Mcpharlin is also a good matchup for Brown. Freo +24.5 to be safe but wouldn't be surprised to see them win by 60+.

I'm hoping the line will get down to -90 for WC. Will be all over it.
 
AFL Greater Western Sydney v West Coast
Line
Greater Western Sydney @ 1.92 (+102.5)

AFL North Melbourne v Geelong
Line
North Melbourne @ 1.50 (+42.5)

AFL Hawthorn v Adelaide
Pick Your Own Line
Adelaide @ 1.56 (+38.5)

AFL Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Pick Your Own Line
Western Bulldogs @ 1.25 (+34.5)

AFL Fremantle v Brisbane
Pick Your Own Line
Brisbane @ 1.50 (+57.5)


AFL Port Adelaide v Sydney
Pick Your Own Line
Port Adelaide @ 1.36 (+30.5)


AFL Carlton v Collingwood
Pick Your Own Line
Collingwood @ 1.22 (+30.5)

@13.98. (Iasbet)
 
magpieswmb said:
-collingwood under 39.5 @$2.80
-melbourne +50.5 @$1.26
-sydney @$1.47
-fremantle @$1.08
-essendon -20.5 @$1.13
-st kilda @$1.50
-west coast -66.5 @$1.11
-hawthorn @$1.18
-geelong @$1.17

multi at $14.51
Click to expand...

Not a bad little multi but risks here are obviously Collingwood and possibly St Kilda and Melbourne. I really hope Melbourne put up more of a fight than they did against my Weagles last week, but if they do drop their heads like last week even Richmond could blow them away. The payout price is however probably worth the risk in this case.
 
Yeah but they still have a pretty strong team. I don't think Rosa and Priddis will make much difference, they will still dominate the mids and bang it down to that towering forward line. Add to that glass who they won't miss because the ball just won't get down there and Embley who barely played last week anyway.
 
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