Opinion OFFICIAL: Josh Walker traded for Brisbane's 2016 3rd Rd pick (Jansen = steak knives)

[iameviljez]

Which is why we should be chasing a Ruckman as a priority this offseason

Depends on Stanley's health.

Ruckmen are a unique case, they're somewhat like wicketkeepers. You can only really play one specialist ruckman in every side - so if we bring in a ready-made ruckman, we stymie the development of Stanley (if fit) and put ourselves in a difficult position.

I felt we did that to Mitch Brown and then (for the first half of the year) Kolodjashnij with the recruitment of Rivers. Thankfully we had the courage to pull the pin on Rivers and move toward our future in defence.

 

[you pick one]

Which is why we should be chasing a Ruckman as a priority this offseason

Yes our rucks at present are pocket battle ships we need one of these sucker.Some serious fire power.

 

[SJ]

When looking at shot accuracy you can't just stick with Goals and Behinds, it is necessary to look at how many shots the players take that don't register a score. While has a comparable Goal scoring percentage, a significant amount of his shots don't result in a score. My theory is that people perception of accuracy is more affected by how frequently a player messes up rather than there goal kicking percentage. A good example of this is comparing the Goal kicking accuracy of Lonergan(in 2008) and Mooney (in 2009) both at the time had the perception of being ordinary kicks for goal, even though Lonergan had a respectable 56% goal accuracy it is because on averaged a shot that didn't result in a score every second week. While Mooney who earned his reputation had an awful goal kicking percentage of 46% was similarly missing all scores with a set shot almost every 2nd week. In recent weeks Walker has had a particularly poor run of shots including multiple out on the fulls which naturally makes people doubt his goal kicking skills.

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When looking at shot accuracy you can't just stick with goals, behinds and misses, because that assumes that every player takes the same difficulty of shots.

 

[Lana]

When looking at shot accuracy you can't just stick with goals, behinds and misses, because that assumes that every player takes the same difficulty of shots.

I'm not champion data so I can't use there detailed stats and heat maps to look at it from that perspective. But given that they are all KPF filling a similar role for a team my theory is that as the number of shots increases the the differences in shot difficulty between players would converge to an extent. Which allows us to compare them some what but as you say there it isn't perfect, just better than just using goals and behinds.

My point was less at looking who was the better shot and more at why to we perceive player X as being a better shot than player Y.

 

[you pick one]

I'm not champion data so I can't use there detailed stats and heat maps to look at it from that perspective. But given that they are all KPF filling a similar role for a team my theory is that as the number of shots increases the the differences in shot difficulty between players would converge to an extent. Which allows us to compare them some what but as you say there it isn't perfect, just better than just using goals and behinds.

My point was less at looking who was the better shot and more at why to we perceive player X as being a better shot than player Y.

First game Walker misses his first 3 shots on goal and will be forever more deemed a s**t kick on big footy by some.
First game Brown kicks his 3 shots on goal and will be forever more deemed a great kick on big footy by some.
Sadly some here make their judgment on players and player ability on much to small a sample sizes and from there their ego takes hold and they're locked into that position.

 

[David the Cat]

I have forgotten Walkers first 3 shots....I haven't forgotten the two critical misses against the Hawks, both straight forward that would have made the game a lot tighter a couple of weeks back........or the effort last week...that was very poor. Or the very ordinary efforts in his latest run of games ( Brisbane aside )....he just doesn't impact on games.

He looks another Playfair to me...like strauchnyy posted...he's not a KF whose going to take us to a premiership.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I know this wasn't directed at me but I'm eating humble pie with blitz, and pleased to be.

If you read some of my older post you would think I was a loon.

I thought he was an athlete not a footballer and would never make it

nah- not directed at anyone in particular. And not picking on anyone who didn't abuse fellow posters for thinking differently It was a reasonable conclusion to draw when assessing the expectations of the average player - this bloke is something special, though.

Hope you enjoyed the humble pie- I find it quite tasty, myself!

 

[Teriyakicat]

It wasn't the right call for our 2013 campaign where we were a serious shot at a flag and in the end winning flags is all that matters. As for his own development it certainly would of helped Blicavs become a better ruckman and midfield player although it's been at the detriment of him learning to be a defender. We probably will never know now how good he could be as a third defender or centre half back.

Do you think he could learn that role while on the job as well, Seeds? He did OK when he replaced Lonners last season vs Sydney and I'll never forget him getting a few quick tips from Scott during a break on one occasion- not sure if it was that game or another. He is just a human sponge and seems to grasp the concepts very quickly.

 

[Teriyakicat]

agree in theory, and we aren't the only club in that boat. But if we are truly in line for Danger, Selwood V2 & Henderson it's a bit hard to see.

wish we had got Big Boy McEvoy .....

Oh boy!!

 

[you pick one]

I have forgotten Walkers first 3 shots....I haven't forgotten the two critical misses against the Hawks, both straight forward that would have made the game a lot tighter a couple of weeks back........or the effort last week...that was very poor. Or the very ordinary efforts in his latest run of games ( Brisbane aside )....he just doesn't impact on games.

He looks another Playfair to me...like strauchnyy posted...he's not a KF whose going to take us to a premiership.

I bet your forgotten Hawkins first two shots on goal in the final quarter of the 2011 GF he looked like he'd kicked us out of it,they can all miss them you should know that.If he doesn't make it, it won't be his kicking for goal it will be he's simple not good enough and we have better options and with Clark Stanley and Vardy on the list it's looking a tough assignment for sure.

 

[candiehappy]

Do you think he could learn that role while on the job as well, Seeds? He did OK when he replaced Lonners last season vs Sydney and I'll never forget him getting a few quick tips from Scott during a break on one occasion- not sure if it was that game or another. He is just a human sponge and seems to grasp the concepts very quickly.

add to that, his potential as an endurance midfielder/wing would be wasted in the back line.

 

[DanA]

I have forgotten Walkers first 3 shots....I haven't forgotten the two critical misses against the Hawks, both straight forward that would have made the game a lot tighter a couple of weeks back........or the effort last week...that was very poor. Or the very ordinary efforts in his latest run of games ( Brisbane aside )....he just doesn't impact on games.

He looks another Playfair to me...like strauchnyy posted...he's not a KF whose going to take us to a premiership.

I suppose we all have our favourites. For me there is a big difference between Walker and Playfair and that's mental toughness.

It says a lot that Walker is frequently talked up as one of the fittest guys and hardest workers in pre-season. The guy always tries to do the right things and has been consistently improving. Might not be the most talented but you can't fault his commitment and besides I don't think Cam Mooney looked like he was taking us to us a premiership either in 2003. But he retired an integral part of two premierships and (somewhat controversially) an All Australian.

 

[Partridge]

First game Walker misses his first 3 shots on goal and will be forever more deemed a s**t kick on big footy by some.
First game Brown kicks his 3 shots on goal and will be forever more deemed a great kick on big footy by some.
Sadly some here make their judgment on players and player ability on much to small a sample sizes and from there their ego takes hold and they're locked into that position.

I wouldn't say that Walker is a crap kick or that Brown is a better kick per se, it's a lot to do with styles. Brown I would say is certainly a more natural kick of the ball. Walker's worked hard and until recently was pretty reliable; the misses against Hawthorn were a surprise as he'd been converting well until then.

 

[David the Cat]

I bet your forgotten Hawkins first two shots on goal in the final quarter of the 2011 GF he looked like he'd kicked us out of it,they can all miss them you should know that.If he doesn't make it, it won't be his kicking for goal it will be he's simple not good enough and we have better options and with Clark Stanley and Vardy on the list it's looking a tough assignment for sure.

That's a bet you would lose YPO... oh and yes I do know that...everyone of us who played footy at any level have missed an absolute sitter in their day........except you n me of course

100% agree with your post though

I suppose we all have our favourites. For me there is a big difference between Walker and Playfair and that's mental toughness.

It says a lot that Walker is frequently talked up as one of the fittest guys and hardest workers in pre-season. The guy always tries to do the right things and has been consistently improving. Might not be the most talented but you can't fault his commitment and besides I don't think Cam Mooney looked like he was taking us to us a premiership either in 2003. But he retired an integral part of two premierships and (somewhat controversially) an All Australian.

No argument here Dan...no question as to his endurance, his dedication, his love of Geelong...and the fact he's apparently a good bloke. Maybe that's why a few here forgive him so readily ... and believe me I'd like him to succeed, but my observation indicates to me he won't challenge Vardy, Stanley or Clark for a place in the side...and may struggle even further if we recruit a ruck man as I suspect we will.

If he's kept, perhaps as a back is worth a try...plenty have made that transition successfully...

 

[Bobby_]

plenty have made that transition successfully...

Like who?
For Geelong for example, I can think of Lonergan, Mackie . . . struggling to think of others though.
Mooney went from the ruck to a backman then a successful forward. Plenty have made that transition but it seems tougher going forward to a backman.

 

[David the Cat]

...John Sharrock years ago for Geelong.....Ian Nankervis is a classic example.....Michael Hurley at Essendon started as a forward..Daniel Merret has managed it though started as a backman but can play both ends, as can Carlisle and Hooker..., Steven May at the Gold Coast started as a forward and now plays defense, ....and thats just off the top of my head.

 

[cynical]

I wouldn't say that Walker is a crap kick or that Brown is a better kick per se, it's a lot to do with styles.

I would, Brown is more like Mackie whereby he can kick the ball 50m+ and hit a target in a good position and can also kick it around the corner under pressure.

Walker is more like a ruckman, he just kicks it in the general direction and hopes for the best. His ball drop isn't as good either which is why he can be hot or cold with his kicking.

Hawkins is a bit frustrated with Walker's passes you can see it in a lot of games.

As a deep forward general kicking isn't that important as long as you kick straight at goals, but as a CHF moving up the ground you still have to hit targets in the 50.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I would, Brown is more like Mackie whereby he can kick the ball 50m+ and hit a target in a good position and can also kick it around the corner under pressure.

Walker is more like a ruckman, he just kicks it in the general direction and hopes for the best. His ball drop isn't as good either which is why he can be hot or cold with his kicking.

Hawkins is a bit frustrated with Walker's passes you can see it in a lot of games.

As a deep forward general kicking isn't that important as long as you kick straight at goals, but as a CHF moving up the ground you still have to hit targets in the 50.

It would be interesting to see how Walker would go passing it to Hawkins on the lead, but I guess we'll never know.

 

[Bobby_]

...John Sharrock years ago for Geelong.....Ian Nankervis is a classic example.....Michael Hurley at Essendon started as a forward..Daniel Merret has managed it though started as a backman but can play both ends, as can Carlisle and Hooker..., Steven May at the Gold Coast started as a forward and now plays defense, ....and thats just off the top of my head.

Hooker was a defender first and foremost before going forward.
Carlisle is the same, he pushed forward later on in his career.
May has played as a defender throughout most of his career. Not until his third season was he tried up forward.

I asked you to identify players who started their careers as forwards and then became 'successful' defenders.
I'm surprised you didn't add in Ben Reid or Lachie Henderson to your list.

 

[DanA]

That's a bet you would lose YPO... oh and yes I do know that...everyone of us who played footy at any level have missed an absolute sitter in their day........except you n me of course

100% agree with your post though



No argument here Dan...no question as to his endurance, his dedication, his love of Geelong...and the fact he's apparently a good bloke. Maybe that's why a few here forgive him so readily ... and believe me I'd like him to succeed, but my observation indicates to me he won't challenge Vardy, Stanley or Clark for a place in the side...and may struggle even further if we recruit a ruck man as I suspect we will.

If he's kept, perhaps as a back is worth a try...plenty have made that transition successfully...

I don't follow your thinking. Walker is, has and will likely continue to challenge Vardy, Clark and Stanley for a place in the team. He's played a fair bit this season and being the youngest he probably has the most improvement left in him.

 

[catempire]

It would be interesting to see how Walker would go passing it to Hawkins on the lead, but I guess we'll never know.

It would be a step in the right direction having one less big lug in Hawkins' way.

 

[FredLeDeux]

It would be a step in the right direction having one less big lug in Hawkins' way.

I haven't noticed him blocking Hawkins in his efforts to lead from one side of the goal square to the other.

 

[catempire]

I haven't noticed him blocking Hawkins in his efforts to lead from one side of the goal square to the other.

Don't worry about those. By the time that happens we have 36 players inside our 50.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Don't worry about those. By the time that happens we have 36 players inside our 50.

Well somebody has to play where the FF would normally go.

 

[catempire]

Well somebody has to play where the FF would normally go.

You'd think so but there are plenty of conventions not being observed recently (see: don't handball to a player standing still, etc.).