April - Daily Punt

[Jugada]

I said I didn't rate the from, not that I didn't rate the horses he beat. That is not the same thing.

But as I said. If you don't think winning the triple crown is enough to be considered a champion 3yo then we are at an irreconcilable difference

Cox Plate and Aus Guineas >>>>>>>>> Sydney "triple crown "
without a doubt for me

But no I dont automatically call someone a champion for winning those races. Im more reserved in using the term champion. You got to do it against good horses still for me.

The Cox Plate form was solid going in and held up even better coming out of it so not sure which horses form you werent happy with and he beat Criterion in the Guineas who franked the form out of that in Sydney

 

[PureFooty]

Silent Achiever has had its measure last two times - really see nothing to suggest it will be any different on Saturday

I think one has peaked, the other is about to. Not saying Silent Achiever can't win, just that IAD is the best horse in the field and has been targeting this race for a long time. That's why I think Silent Achiever has had it's measure so far, that's taking nothing away from its wins either. I've got a strong opinion on the horse for a long time and by 4.30 ill be either be right and in front, or wrong and eating humble pie. I'll make a bold statement and say its a certainty to run top 3, and close to a morale to win.

 

[Main Man]

I think one has peaked, the other is about to. Not saying Silent Achiever can't win, just that IAD is the best horse in the field and has been targeting this race for a long time. That's why I think Silent Achiever has had it's measure so far, that's taking nothing away from its wins either. I've got a strong opinion on the horse for a long time and by 4.30 ill be either be right and in front, or wrong and eating humble pie. I'll make a bold statement and say its a certainty to run top 3, and close to a morale to win.

That's your opinion and that's fine, you are not alone there and you may very well be correct tomorrow but this is my issue with the IAD hysteria, for what reason is he actually the best horse in the race? Why is it that when he has been beaten it is because there was an issue, fitness, over the top, feet issues you name it but never because the other horse like Silent Achiever is a better horse than him, or at the very least as good of a horse as him?

For a horse that is supposed to be the best he has been beaten an awful lot of late.

Some people are talking as though he is the only horse who has been set for this race whilst the others have all now peaked, that just doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[PureFooty]

That's your opinion and that's fine, you are not alone there and you may very well be correct tomorrow but this is my issue with the IAD hysteria, for what reason is he actually the best horse in the race? Why is it that when he has been beaten it is because there was an issue, fitness, over the top, feet issues you name it but never because the other horse like Silent Achiever is a better horse than him, or at the very least as good of a horse as him?

For a horse that is supposed to be the best he has been beaten an awful lot of late.

Some people are talking as though he is the only horse who has been set for this race whilst the others have all now peaked, that just doesn't make any sense to me.

Hysteria comes with the dominance of his wins, and the way he races. I don't have his sectionals but if I recall in the races he's won he's produced the best or very close to the best sectionals of the day. I don't really like the 'but only beat that and this horse beat such and such' theory, as you know horses can win maidens at kyneton and then come out and win listed races because of how they've run, not who they have been up against. I think he's the best horse because of the reasons listed above and that he is also rated close to if not the best horse in Australia over this distance. I know there are others that have targeted this race such as carton house, Green Moon, probably most of if not all of wallers, but sometimes you have got to have strong opinions and sometimes they aren't just made up of data but delving deeper into how it's been trained and put into races and your only little theories. It's a risky thing to do, because you can get it very wrong and look into things too much, but if you get it right it pays well and it's a pretty good feeling. So in short I don't have a hell of a lot of data and stats to say its better than the rest,apart from its sectionals in those races, but I do reckon its the horse with the ability to blow the rest away, because visually it's just looked so progressive this campaign.

 

[Main Man]

He only has 2 dominant wins in his career, so why the hysteria? His win over Proisir in the Randwick Guineas was genunie Group 1 class, followed by his win in the Rosehill Guineas, his win in the Derby was borderline Group 1, he ran strong sectionals off a very slow pace, even then these 3 performances were nothing that sets him apart from horse such as Silent Achiever and is no where near the level of recent champions.

I agree that it's not always about the quality of opponents they are up against when assessing ones performance, I focus on the individual performance itself, this the reason I backed Carlton House to beat them in the Ranvet off a 2nd to Opinion which reads okay on paper but in reality a performance that was quite outstanding.

This is also the reason I believe that IAD has been over hyped, lets use this theory now for his win over AJ, forget that she was the horse he beat that day and look at the performance itself, the answer you get is average for that standard of race, walked early and average sectionals home. The fact that he beat AJ has only added fuel to the hysteria that surrounds him and has given people further reason to dive into the excuse bag.

So for mine his career consists of 2-3 high class performances as a 3yo and the rest of which have been okay to good, all his open class runs have certainly been nothing that sets him apart from the rest, he is quite simply no better than those that are around him now and this the reason he has been getting beaten, even if he beats them tomorrow he is not a better horse than Silent Achiever, just better on the day like she has been the past two.

That's my opinion.

 

[Substance]

randwick

R4: get on sidestep. set wights++ $4s is great
R5: I love solicit but I think catkins stamps herself here. drifting though?
R6: Lucia valentina clearly. $2.50 whatever she should win
R7: sydney cup. Think the offer is vulnerable here. I'd rather lay it than back it with the track getting to slow. I didn't mind giving sertorius another go since it's a different track +1kg swing on the offer, but I'm with the kiwi who shot the barman. born stayer and very hard to beat here.
R8 QE: IAD been hammered. Why is she going to beat SA? get on her again imo. quinella with royal descent
R9: Come on plucky belle! you owe me. held up last time beaten a head

GL punters and happy easter

 

[Main Man]

Randwick:

Race 3 - 1.3 Units - Shaumari ($5)

Race 6 - 3.5 Units - Lucia Valentina ($2.50)

Race 7 - 2.2 Units - The Offer - the drying track of no concern to me, if we were looking at a bone dry G3 then maybe but just a better price now.

I have had 1.2 Units on Lucia Valentina into The Offer @ $7.82, if that lands I will be using the winnings to back Carlton House, Royal Descent and Sacred Falls in the Queen Elizabeth all for big results, I will also then have 1.75 Units on Silent Achiever and 1.2 Units IAD.

If not I will play the race the following.

Race 8 - 1.5 Units - Carlton House. 1.1 Units - Royal Descent. 0.65 Units - Sacred Falls.

Good Luck

 

[rideclutch]

That's my opinion.

Where did you rate his performance when beaten in the QE last year, in comparison to his triple crown?

 

[Main Man]

Where did you rate his performance when beaten in the QE last year, in comparison to his triple crown?

A good performance, it was below his run in the Rosehill Guineas which I have as his career peak, but still likely gets beaten by Reliable Man on his Rosehill Guineas run.

Thats the point though, his very best performance was a competitive Group 1 performance, enough to win some but not all open age Group 1 races, this the reason I don't understand the hysteria that surrounds him.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Randwick

E/W bets
R4 BOUNDING
R7 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
R8 ROYAL DESCENT


Best Win bet of the day for mine

Ascot
R7 TRAVINATOR

 

[RobbyRoy]

R1 Veuvelicious
R2 Woodbine
R3 Shaumari
R4 Sidestep
R5 Catkins
R6 Lucia Valentina
R7 The Offer
R8 It's A Dundeel
R9 Cosmic Endeavour

If Shaumari wins I'll be looking good for the day but need the favourites in races 5-7 to come through for the big one! Good luck all.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I note Snowden has decided to put their 3yo Tupac Amaru into the Sydney Cup which is big step from a stable that is quite conservative.

An interesting decision. Its poorly in at the weights though carrying 54 only 3kgs from the top weight. Would Seems about 4-5 kilos too many.

NZ filly Bounding has to be a good chance in the Royal Sovereign Stakes - not an overly strong race for mine. Will have to overcome the cloud though that sits on NZ form at the moment.

Been on Catkins and Silent Achiever through the Sydney carnival and will stick with them again.

 

[Retired Jimmy]

Sydney........
R2: #5 Beauty's beast @8-1
R3: #10 Queen of Kariba @$20/$5
R4: #1 Sidestep @4-1
R5: #3 Catkins @7/2
R6: #2 Lucia Valentina @9/4
R7: #3 Who Shot the Barman @7-1
R8: #4 Green Moon. (How quickly we forget) @$21/ $5
R9: #1 Dystopia 7-1

 

[bombers21]

Extremely keen on Red Tracer, Lucia Valentina and Its a Dundeel.

This is It's a Dundeels Grand Final. He has been set to be peaking now 4th up. All his runs this prep have been to build his fitness for today. Today's he's on and going to smash this field.

I also like TUPAC AMARU & VOLEUSE each way in the Sydney Cup.

 

[Falcons]

Caulfield

R2 Synthetic
R4 Fine Approach
R5 Classy Jack *****
R7 Our Voodoo Prince
R8 Unanimously

Randwick

R1 Vevuelicious*****
R2 Papillion Rouge
R3 Ygritte ****
R4 Dothraki
R5 Catkins
R6 Misvonn
R7 Who Shot Thebarman
R8 Le Roi ***
R9 Plucky Belle

Oakbank

R3 Saturday Affair *****
R5 War Is Over
R7 Siwa Lady
R8 Dignitary

 

[sethlad]

I note Snowden has decided to put their 3yo Tupac Amaru into the Sydney Cup which is big step from a stable that is quite conservative.
An interesting decision. Its poorly in at the weights though carrying 54 only 3kgs from the top weight. Would Seems about 4-5 kilos too many.

I cant believe the weight it got,how does it get only 1 kg from The Offer & same weight as Brigantin?
Its won a Ballarat maiden

seth

 

[Lockyer24]

Today is looking ugly.

 

[year of the cat]

Today is looking ugly.

Yep.

 

[Substance]

can't believe sidestep started $5. Best bet gets up but should have gapped them

 

[Retired Jimmy]

No luck on Catkins, but seeing Tommy Berry win that is great to see.

 

[RobbyRoy]

I think we're all going to be happy any time Tommy Berry gets up, but gee, that was tough for me.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Today is looking ugly.

ooh yeah

 

[Gavin Excell]

I see there's an early quaddie tomorrow at Randwick with the tab. Do they get decent pools in these?

Paid $37K

 

[bombers21]

I note Snowden has decided to put their 3yo Tupac Amaru into the Sydney Cup which is big step from a stable that is quite conservative.

An interesting decision. Its poorly in at the weights though carrying 54 only 3kgs from the top weight. Would Seems about 4-5 kilos too many.

NZ filly Bounding has to be a good chance in the Royal Sovereign Stakes - not an overly strong race for mine. Will have to overcome the cloud though that sits on NZ form at the moment.

Been on Catkins and Silent Achiever through the Sydney carnival and will stick with them again.

Personally I think TUPAC gets in fairly well at the weights with the weights being raised 2KG.

 

[cephu]

Yo


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