Are 'premiership windows' a thing of the past?

[Magic Mike]

Sydney's list management isn't relevant to every club. The more clubs that adopt similar strategies the less effective their used car policy will be as the pool of cheap mature age players is limited.

Nor are clubs going to enjoy a similar spreads of talent, in similar age brackets at the right time to always avoid bottom 10 finishes.

Someone has to finish lower on the ladder and there can be obvious draft advantages in doing so. In the end equalisation will win out and clubs will fall down the ladder.

I used Sydney as an example because they are a club that never hits rock bottom or adopts youth policies.

Gary Rohan is the only top 10 draft on the list, and he contributed nothing to the premiership due to breaking his leg early in the year.

The rest of the list consists of recycled players and players who are taken deep in the draft.

It has been stated many times that the club can't afford to bottom out due to being in a fickle market.

What would happen if every club adopted the same strategy? The ladder would be interesting to look at because there are 18 spots that must be filled every year.

 

[kosifantutti]

Premiership windows are like a religion. If you believe in it you can make any result fit into the Premiership window theory.

 

[Bollox]

Gary Rohan is the only top 10 draft on the list, and he contributed nothing to the premiership due to breaking his leg early in the year.

The rest of the list consists of recycled players and players who are taken deep in the draft.

Welllllll...thats not exactly 100% ridgy didge.
Off the top of my head we've got a captain that was taken at 5, and another regular that was taken at 8.
Might be more too.
We arnt exactly a used car lot containing hotted up Leyland P76 and Holden Camira's as some seem to think.

 

[Magic Mike]

Welllllll...thats not exactly 100% ridgy didge.
Off the top of my head we've got a captain that was taken at 5, and another regular that was taken at 8.
Might be more too.
We arnt exactly a used car lot containing hotted up Leyland P76 and Holden Camira's as some seem to think.

I forgot about Bolton, who was taken with pick 8 in 1998, and McVeigh, who was taken with pick 5 in 2002 because I was referring to your list turnover between the 2005 and 2012 premierships.

I admit that I don't know a whole lot about Sydney's list, but I do know that they defy the traditional cycle of 'premiership windows' and 'rebuilding phases'.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Premiership windows exist but they are more relevant to club culture/structure than the quality of the playing list. Look at Sydney, Collingwood, Geelong in recent years, they've managed to bring average talent through both mature players and juniors and make them fit the system. Quality structures through senior players, have allowed less talented kids to come in, play with confidence and become greater than the sum of their attributes.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Premiership windows are like a religion. If you believe in it you can make any result fit into the Premiership window theory.

...even if over 80% of the playing personnel has changed between premierships and they missed out on the top four for five consecutive years, in Sydney's case.

They rebuilt; people just missed it.

 

[thejester]

I thought the 'premiership window' was just a term for a statistical trend in which sides would becomes serious contenders for and winners of premierships when they the majority of their squad/best 22 were 22 years old or over and had 100 games under the belt (ie physical maturity and senior experience), and that they started to decline when these players started hitting 27-28 and went into physical decline. Does Sydney's premiership invalidate that idea? I can't be bothered crunching the numbers but it seems the core of the side basically fits that model, albeit probably less than say Geelong or Collingwood. You've got the old stagers in O'Keefe, Goodes and Bolton who would be anomalies in terms of relationship between age and production, and a few important players in Kennedy, Hannebery, Mumford, Smith and Jetta who are just shy of the 100 game mark (60-90).

What people seem to mean when they say premiership window is the idea of the draft-based cycle, and Sydney's clearly challenged that. Clubs recognised by 05 that building through the draft was the way to go - look at the success of Geelong, who traded out a bunch of old players who were still competitive for picks, against Richmond who did the opposite. But the pendulum pretty clearly swung too far and that resulted in debacles like Melbourne. The Swans have shown you can stay competitive and rebuild at the same time. But I doubt that means the end of the draft based cycle. Sydney's spent the most on its football department for a long time, which goes a long way to explaining the moneyball trading and player development, and half of clubs can't match that. They've also rebuilt of the back of a pretty average run with first round picks. I'd think that most clubs would recognise that the draft is still the best source of talent, especially if you nail your first rounders, and that trading/free agency will be about complimenting a core group ala what Collingwood did at the end of 2009.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think the other thing about free agency is it might not be the great leveller that people are expecting it to be. There's going to be players who will sign any reasonable contract offered to them by their current club; others who just want to get as much as they can, regardess of the team; players who want to move back to their home state; and a fourth group of veterans in the twilight of their career, who choose to sign with a contender (often under their market value, if they're an UFA) to try to get that premiership that would cap off their career. If Sydney missed out on Tippett and had massive cash to throw around at the next batch of free agents, wouldn't they be able to make a tempting offer to a player like N.Riewoldt or Pavlich (not these players specifically, just players in their position) to fill the one apparent questionable spot in their team and give themselves a great chance to finally win an AFL flag?

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Explain, why are clubs whinging about Tippet then.?

What was their facts for 2012??

This is way off topic. Just stop or take your conspiracy to the appropriate thread.

 

[The Swert]

With an ageing core group of players, the Hawks may be forgiven for thinking they'd missed a vital chance to cash in another premiership to go with their 2008 triumph - and make the most out of a golden group of talent.

Good to see the Hawks taking the underdog mentality. We did have second youngest team of those in the finals last year (Roos youngest) but it's cool if everybody thinks we're old. Hehehe

 

[Mr Magic]

This is way off topic. Just stop or take your conspiracy to the appropriate thread.

Not at all, it is not just 2012 salary cap % but the ability of the Swans to procure a team over time due to their cap benefits via trades other teams do not have, like retaining Okeefe, and getting other players as they present

 

[Mr Magic]

...even if over 80% of the playing personnel has changed between premierships and they missed out on the top four for five consecutive years, in Sydney's case.

They rebuilt; people just missed it.

Exactly, it is a new window despite not getting a wooden spoon

 

[Docker Clint]

St Kilda's window is certainly a thing of the past.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

It's an overused term free agency/player movement will increasingly make redundant.

 

[Matt Stevic]

Premiership windows are a thing of the past, it's all about premiership clocks now.

 

[Pessimistic]

Premiership wave motion

 

[JackFlash]

You could argue the Bulldogs just bought their way into a window?

 

[Hawkk]

You could argue the Bulldogs just bought their way into a window?

How? Because they signed up an 8 game rookie to a super sized contract whilst letting go of their captain and (former) Brownlow medallist?

 

[JackFlash]

How? Because they signed up an 8 game rookie to a super sized contract whilst letting go of their captain and (former) Brownlow medallist?

Yes, otherwise why do it? It's utter madness i know, but unless the Dogs can see themselves as contenders within 2-3 years why do it at all? Nope, they have backed themselves in here and let's not forget they have Bontempelli who IMO could be the best player in the competition by the end of 2016! How they will keep him will be their next financial challenge. He is the competition's next $10million man.

 

[Young Gun #6]

I would say that is a perfect example of why there is a premiership window.

There are 4-5 teams that are right up there in there window.

Then there are another 4-5 teams that are outside chances at best.

Then there are 4-5 teams that could make finals, but are never going to win.

And 4-5 teams glued to the bottom of the ladder, that have almost no chance of making the 8.

Each group of teams (and I won't go in to which teams are in which category as it isn't the point of this thread) is at different stages of their premiership window. Sure it is possible to win from out of there, but it is highly unlikely.

Port Adelaide.

 

[Hawkk]

Yes, otherwise why do it? It's utter madness i know, but unless the Dogs can see themselves as contenders within 2-3 years why do it at all? Nope, they have backed themselves in here and let's not forget they have Bontempelli who IMO could be the best player in the competition by the end of 2016! How they will keep him will be their next financial challenge. He is the competition's next $10million man.

Okay then...

 

[JackFlash]

Okay then...

Have i overrated him? He's proven to be a lot better than Boyd who might end up being no better than Kreuzer or Watts? The Dogs have rolled the dice, i hope for their sake and their hapless supporters they have a win, but IMO people at the kennel have thrown all their eggs in one basket and this deal has opened up a huge can of worms. It could come back to bite them on the tail, particularly if they still have players who whinge and whine about the coach!

 

[Randy Campbell]

The Hawks have replaced the window with a glass sliding door.

 

[Experimental]

Just because a club in their 'premiership window' doesn't win a premiership doesn't mean they were never in their 'window' to begin with. Take St Kilda for example - they made it to the very last game, but couldn't win it. The Bulldogs managed to get to a prelim, but couldn't make it into the GF. Both of these clubs were in their premiership windows, but failed to go all the way. Now their window has shut and they're still rebuilding.

In my opinion, premiership windows still exist, but it starting to look that it's just another word for finishing top 8. Anything's possible once you reach finals.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yeah the theory is with a limited list you cant maintain a top level list and subsequent lists in waiting even if every player selected was topline, developed well and didnt get long term injured.

Thats with the draft develop win retire player model. If you trade for more fire power in a particilar age group you have to give up recruiting currency.

Thats before free agency, but you do end up overpaying inmost cases


It will be interesting to see if hawks can stem a decline with up to eight players probably retiring in four to five years. Interestingly four of these were inward trades and the other four home grown. Incidentally these guys combined with crawford croad and co to win the 2008 and combined with such as gunston hill langford for one in 2012.


The premiership window, clock whatever exists. But if a club is aware of it, they can maximise the time at the top and limit the time at the bottom