Analysis Are we really a spooner side this year? I mean, REALLY?

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Just looking at the way our team stacks up, I'm less convinced we'll be as bad as last year. I think the first four or so rounds from last year is more indicative of who we'll be: able to hold our own against bottom 6 sides, surprise the odd middle 6 side, and really get hammered by the top 6 sides.

Last year, as I've frequently stated, we had TONS of major injuries, not least to our middle-aged players like Steven, Armitage, Geary, etc. This year it's looking much better. Add to that, a few of the younger players seem ripe to step up, and are about to enter into that 50+ bracket (Newnes, Ross, etc). AND, add to THAT, Richo having another year to undo the mess that Watters left us with.

I'm more and more inclined to see last year as an anomoly, caused by excessive injuries, massive list transitions, and having a new coach with an entirely different playing philosophy.

I'm not saying we'll make a play for the 8. But I do think we can be a side that's in that 10-15 area by season's end.
 

TN25

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Agree with OP

I see us bottom 4, but not spooners
 

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Jan 7, 2011
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Agree with much of the OP, especially if we're struggling to get the likes of Webster and Roberton into our 22, even without Gilbo and given how much competition we have for spots down back and up forward in particular.

Thinking we'll finish a lot closer to 15th (to 18th) than 10th, but believe this could easily be a year where someone comes last with 6 wins, maybe by percentage and it may not be us.

Our backline could very easily be much stronger this year, Roo really ought to have much more support up forward and we ought to have many more up there who are an offensive threat (ie. no Clint Jones's doing forward line tagging) and like Percy said, we have a few who are now cherry ripe to step up their games to a new level this year, such as Newnes, Ross, Billings, Webster, Savage, Lee, Templeton, Wright and Saad.
 

Periphery

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I think this years result will largely depend on things that are impossible to predict or outside our control. If one team sustains lots of injuries, gets unlucky with some close results or isn't lucky enough to encounter a good team on a bad day, then they could easily find themselves with pick 1. These unpredictable things could easily determine the positions of the bottom 3 teams on the ladder.

Us, Melbourne and the Bulldogs are the 3 likely candidates imo but a decent case could be made for each team to see some improvement this year. The Dees really improved their list last year bringing in some quality senior players and ready to go draftees. The Dogs had the best list and while they were weakened by losses of senior players I'm not sure they were weakened enough to fall to last place. We had injuries to key players last year so if they come back and play at the levels we hope they do then we could improve but that is an unknown at this stage.

According to champion data we have the hardest draw of those three teams and I can see this being the deciding factor - either through % or giving the other teams an extra chance at a win.

Overall I think we are the most likely to finish last, but I wouldn't bet my house on it.
 

nitewalker13

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I reckon we will come 15th or 14th this season. But teams like melbourne and bulldogs got bit stronger side than us. Dont know who will come last...
 
I think Melb, Dogs, Saints & maybe GWS could all be a spoon chance.
Injuries on a young inexperienced team have a huge impact.
Luck ( or to be more precise a lack of It regarding injuries) will most likely decide who gets the wooden spoon.
Hopefully its time that our luck changes for the better.:thumbsu:
 
I think we will be able to see a bit during the NAB challenge. if we get flogged by Brisbane and Hawthorn, I would feel its going to be a long, long year.

I would also like to hope though, that if we are on the bottom, that we do not get flogged like say against the hawks last year.
 
If we can keep the bulk of our stars on the park I don't think we are. Like Primus' Port we couldn't get a best team on the park every week last season. There are so many going down at other clubs and we are (touch wood) pretty healthy. I have been saying for about 5 years that Sam Fisher is our most important player, he showed why again on the weekend. There are players and play makers, Sam is the latter. I can see us leap frogging a few if the right players stay fit. Melbourne and Bulldogs below us if everything goes right. Collingwood could be in for a stinker too.
 

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In short, yes I think we are. But obviously there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge between now and the end of the season and anything can happen. If all clubs had their best 22 available, then I think we would finish last. However, injuries and the like operate in strange ways and it may be that we have a good run and another spoon contender has a shocker, which enables us to avoid the spoon.
 

Paddy Wagon

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Two teams IMO that might finish below us this year. Melbourne and Carlton. Not convinced about melbournes list strategy and Carlton's list is horrendous!!
 

saintbill

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It depends on what we get out of the senior blokes I think. If Riewoldt, Montagna, Fisher, Dempster, Steven, Armitage & Geary stay on the park most of the year I doubt we will finish bottom. If these blokes start going down, we will be massive battlers again, albeit, slightly less so than last year.
 

Sunshine Saint

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Sorry to intrude but Ive always had a soft spot for the Saints.
I think youll suprise a few and finish around 11th. I just hope you finish above the Dogs. Their list is so overrated.


Richmond supporters for the vast majority of posts on here, are extremely fair and reasonable. Love the club or hate them, their supporters on BF are second only to us. :)
 

kernelT

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Our very best 22 would be competitive with the bottom 6-8 clubs… but injuries are inevitable and at this stage, we have very poor (AFL level) depth.

If any of Riewoldt, Montagna, Steven, Armitage are missing, we will really struggle IMO.

A serious suspension to Essendon over doping may take the spoon away from us though…
 
I think a lot of people have forgotten just how good a fit Sam Fisher (foot), Jarryn Geary (elbow), Jack Steven (foot), David Armitage (infection), etc, etc, can be.

Let me put it this way. This was our side for the Round 14 game against West Coast last year (I could have chosen any game in that dry patch, but hey). I've put the player who'll be in that role this year, in comparison, based on a reasonable guess at the side. I've also put a + if it's an upgrade this year, an = if it's the same, and a - if it's a loss.


2014 B Shenton, Delaney (hip hurt), Dempster
2015 B Geary + , Delaney (fit) +, Dempster =

2014 HB Webster, Gwilt, Ray
2015 HB Webster = , Fisher +, Savage +

2014 RK Longer, Steven (inj), Weller
2015 RK Hickey + , Steven (fit) +, Weller (now leader) +

2014 C Newnes, Hayes, Savage (wrong position)
2015 C Newnes (now leader) +, Montagna =, Dunstan +

2014 HF Milera, Riewoldt, Jones
2015 HF Billings +, Riewoldt = , Templeton +

2014 FF Billings (inj), Lee (inj), Minchington
2015 FF Saad +, Lee (fit) + , Membrey +

2014 IC Ross, Armitage, Simpkin, Murdoch
2015 IC Ross (older) =, Armitage (fitter) +, Acres +, Shenton (fitter) +

That all looks a bit clunky, I'll admit. But my point is, we are MASSIVELY improved.
 
Jan 7, 2011
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If all clubs had their best 22 available, then I think we would finish last.
Don't personally agree with this. Last year we were a two point loss to Brisbane (in a game when Roo aggravated his knee very early and had little influence from that point on, and Eli broke his arm early on as well, leaving us one short on rotations) away from a 4-2 start, before most of our injuries hit and at that time we were ahead of teams like Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (even Richmond) on the ladder and I see no reason why that couldn't have continued to be the case had we continued to have closer to our best team on the park for the majority of the year. (That said, the Doggies had a much easier draw than us, with 5 games v the bottom 4 from the year before, compared to just 3 for us, which accounted for 2 of their 3 extra wins).

With the Doggies for instance, they have since lost Griffen, Cooney, Higgins, Giansiricusa (who all played between 15 and 21 games for them last year) as well as experienced depth in Jones and Tutt, while the only loss that will really affect us much is Lenny, so if they were at full strength this year and we were at full strength this year I would be pretty disappointed if we lost.

We would have Roo up forward (the best in that area of either team, as well as overall), Fisher down back (ditto, especially as far as taller options go) and the likes of Steven, Montagna and Armo in the midfield, against what is quite likely to be comfortably the youngest and least experienced midfield in the league (as they are planning on playing Boyd down back, leaving possibly no-one with more than 77 games experience in there- unless they move Picken in to tag, or push Murphy up to the wing, which would weaken their backline). Our full strength backline in particular looks much stronger and more settled than theirs, especially if they move Murphy out of there and replace him with Boyd, who is not exactly quick, nor polished by foot.

I'm also far from certain that we would be a worse team than Melbourne if both teams were at full strength. Again, Roo would be first picked forward for either team (and also overall) and Chips likely first picked down back and I'd be happy with our full strength and fully fit midfield over theirs I reckon. Their backline looks pretty good, so there wouldn't be much in it there and I'd be happy with our forward line (unless Hogan is already in beast-mode, which would make it a closer contest), so a lot of it would probably come down to how effective the respective team's gameplans were and each team's draws.
 

kernelT

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100% fit is a lovely concept, unfortunately it's very rare.

Fisher, Gilbert & Schneider have played a handful of games each in 2-3 years.

6 games is Hickey's longest consecutive games streak.

Riewoldt & Montagna will slow down at some stage.

Jones & Gwilt while average, played most weeks last year for a reason - they still offer more at this stage than their younger counterparts running around at Sandy - Curren, Saunders, Bruce, Simpkin etc
 

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