Analysis Are we really a spooner side this year? I mean, REALLY?

[mad-saint-guy]

Lots of fans are pointing at our injury problems last year as a reason why we'll be better this year, but I don't expect that situation to improve at all. We have a list almost entirely made up of kids and veterans - players without AFL-hardened bodies and players with bodies that have been battered and broken down over 10+ years of footy. These guys will continue to get injured regularly.

The other bottom teams are all ahead of us in their rebuilding phase and we are still heavily reliant on the few gun veterans still kicking around for us. I If we improve on 2014, it won't be by much. GWS should get out of the bottom four this year and Melbourne are looking stronger. The Bulldogs are an unknown quantity having lost a lot of experience and talent as well as sacking the coach. But they do have an excellent young midfield brigade with a fair bit of AFL footy behind them. It's possible that the kids won't be able to handle the pressure without Griffen, Cooney, Gia and Higgins in there, Crameri might get suspended and Boyd might boot 10 goals for the year on the way to the spoon. But I suspect they'll be a little better than us and we'll be taking the country's best young midfielder in November.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Wait.....let me get this right, you are reading into a somewhat competitive intraclub game as to what the season proper could hold?

At least wait until after the NAB Challenge and first few rounds of the actual season.

I feel this side has shown glimpses last year of its immense potential last year against Essendon and Fremantle....its time for them to show that a bit more consistently.

I feel we will finish 12th this year

I'm basing it on the most up-to-date evidence available. Every best-22 we've made is just names on the screen until you see them play. Well, having seen them play in the intraclub, they are unmitigated crap. Now, you're right, it's only the intraclub, and we should wait until the NAB to have a clearer idea. I didn't say that we definitely WILL be crap all year. I said BASED ON THE INTRACLUB we will be crap this year. My point is, let's not pretend that that performance gave us any hope of doing well. We can only base our estimates on the information at hand. Once that information is updated and changes - and I hope to high heaven that it does, FAST - then things are looking very, very, very concerning.

 

[BrianSpeaking]

And Lenny is gone.

 

[Jack Stevens]

I don't think we'll get off the bottom this year. But I also don't think we'll be as pathetic as other wooden spooners have been over the last few years.

 

[a mayes ing]

Based on the intraclub, we better pray for ASADA to do the right thing.

Hi, Sorry for intruding but what what went wrong in your intraclub for you to think you would be in trouble this year?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Not sure if anyone has seen it in any of the post intra-club interviews, but I think Richo was interviewed on the loudspeaker immediately after the game and said that the game was so scrappy and low scoring because of how good the defensive pressure was from each team and how everyone (at least on the St Kilda list) knew where the other side was going to move the ball to and so-on and could shut it down defensively, so I wouldn't go reading too much into that game!

 

[Simple Jack]

Hi, Sorry for intruding but what what went wrong in your intraclub for you to think you would be in trouble this year?

Well if you're basing it solely on looking at the game play and not taking into account any other factors then it looks like we can expect about a 10% team disposal efficiency this year.

I'll be waiting for a game against a different opposition first.

 

[karaoke]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/02/24/st-kilda-season-preview/


Rosey’s 2015 AFL preview: St Kilda to be bottom dwellers

Poor old St Kilda. You have to feel for their fans. As close as you can possibly get to tasting premiership glory in 2010 without succeeding, only to be left with a bitter aftertaste in the form of plummeting to the foot of the ladder less than half a decade later.

And they’ll be anchored there for at least another year yet.

2014 started brightly enough, with three wins from their first five games. This begat only one more win from their next seventeen matches to round out the year.

Only four wins for the season. Comfortably the worst percentage. Last place on the ladder.

It’s hard to forsee much better this season.

St Kilda won’t be playing finals this year, or any time before 2020, but improvement can still happen, and progress can still be made. Which is a win in and of itself.

Predicted ladder spread: 16th-18th.

Predicted finish: 18th.

 

[CursingFijian]

Not sure if anyone has seen it in any of the post intra-club interviews, but I think Richo was interviewed on the loudspeaker immediately after the game and said that the game was so scrappy and low scoring because of how good the defensive pressure was from each team and how everyone (at least on the St Kilda list) knew where the other side was going to move the ball to and so-on and could shut it down defensively, so I wouldn't go reading too much into that game!

Tom Lee also stated in his post intra interview that there was a heavy focus on defensive roles, and that showed. I think we are definitely on track to find improvement this year through:

• greater availability of players through a combination of less injuries and more of the senior list showing they are ready and capable to play at AFL level (Spencer/Pierce/Acres/Minchington) which gives us the capacity to rest tired bodies over a season
  
• higher fitness levels in mid tier players such as Newnes, Ross, Acres, Billings, Dunstan, Markworth and Lee
• Proven depth on the rookie list in case of LTI with Saad and Schneider both ready made players, and Sinclair looking physically ready to go.
  
• Our average defensive efficiency will improve just by having Fisher and Geary back on the park. Factor in that Savage has shown enough to suggest he not only fully understands his running back role, but he is going to be very good at it. Acres looks cherry ripe to explode out of the back half. And Goddard is already pressing to start his career early and give Fisher a chop out when he needs one. This thickening of our back flank means that players with strong defensive mindsets like Newnes and Wright can be released into the midfield to alleviate some of the stress there. We should be much harder to score against on turnover this year.
• With Markworth, Lee and Spencer all available early, and McCartin and Membrey both showing they understand and possess what it takes to play AFL level there is a chance we can deload Riewoldt significantly and use him in a Westhoff type role without weakening our inside 50 marking capacity. Salivate.
• players like Saad, Lonie and Curren are chomping at the bit, ready to rip up the forward half. They all look like they have embraced that forward pressure role.

Our only weakness is the fact that a season is a long, long time. Much can change and probably will, but that applies to all clubs. The football department has done a wonderful job to create the current position we are in right now. Our list is bulging at the seams. You know it is when Daddy Barrels changes his best 22 every week! If I was asked to graph the anticipated level of enjoyment Saint Kilda fans ar likely to experience over the next 60 premiership games it would look something like this

 

[gringo2011]

Can't see any teams we will be better than, so unfortunately I think we will be finishing last.

I think we would be lucky to finish above Dogs/Demons. Dogs have quality youth, who are typically a couple of years more expereinced than ours, and Dees have recruited OK. Giants will improve as well.

Unless one of our fellow cellar dwellers are decimated by injuries, can't see us avoiding the spoon.

I would say that the Dogs could have a very big drop off after losing Cooney a brownlow medalist and Griffen who is a top 10 midfielder in the whole comp and Higgins, Giansiracusa etc. The only notable seniors on their list now are Murphy and the defender who is injury prone Morris. Then they have Bontempelli a guy who would have about 22 games to his name but looks outstanding and then Mc Crae and Libba who are both already very high level players. The rest are developing nicely but not any better than our kids. We on the other hand have Rooey, Steven, Armo, Fisher and Gilbert who are more or less high level players, we then have Geary etc that are good players then a huge group we expect to break from the blocks in Newness, Webster, Ross etc. The Dogs had a hard cut back and might struggle with out a strong senior core for 2015. The Dees ....well Hogan will want to be plugger to make them any better than they are now. I can see the Pies really struggling with a huge clear out over the last 3 seasons. They have nearly as many kids as us now.

ARR I was hoping for a player to player comparison more like putting their best 22 against ours. I could see Acres compared to Bontempelli, Riewold to Boyd etc. I haven't done it but I imagine on previous years form we are probably ahead on a full list with Steven against Mc Crae and Libba against Armo then going through the two and finding who's comes out ahead.

 

[Nutsngum]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/02/24/st-kilda-season-preview/


Rosey’s 2015 AFL preview: St Kilda to be bottom dwellers

Poor old St Kilda. You have to feel for their fans. As close as you can possibly get to tasting premiership glory in 2010 without succeeding, only to be left with a bitter aftertaste in the form of plummeting to the foot of the ladder less than half a decade later.

And they’ll be anchored there for at least another year yet.

2014 started brightly enough, with three wins from their first five games. This begat only one more win from their next seventeen matches to round out the year.

Only four wins for the season. Comfortably the worst percentage. Last place on the ladder.

It’s hard to forsee much better this season.

St Kilda won’t be playing finals this year, or any time before 2020, but improvement can still happen, and progress can still be made. Which is a win in and of itself.

Predicted ladder spread: 16th-18th.

Predicted finish: 18th.

Quoting this for the lols. Not play finals in the next 5 years? I wish I had his crystal ball.

 

[Persevering Saint]

ARR I was hoping for a player to player comparison more like putting their best 22 against ours. I could see Acres compared to Bontempelli, Riewold to Boyd etc. I haven't done it but I imagine on previous years form we are probably ahead on a full list with Steven against Mc Crae and Libba against Armo then going through the two and finding who's comes out ahead.

Here you go:

 

[gringo2011]

Here you go:
View attachment 111699

Thanks, that was quick. It certainly isn't an obvious win for either team. I would say with a fully fit Saints we come out in front but that's not likely anyway. I'm still bullish though that with a bit of injury luck we can get off the bottom.

Did anyone see the intra clubs stats? Webster, Fisher, Shenton, Savage, Ross, Newness, Geary etc racked up very good numbers in a limited game. Some like Roberton and Saad must have made a good impression from not a lot of ball.

http://www.saints.com.au/news/2015-02-24/intra-club-stats

 

[joop]

Lots of fans are pointing at our injury problems last year as a reason why we'll be better this year, but I don't expect that situation to improve at all. We have a list almost entirely made up of kids and veterans - players without AFL-hardened bodies and players with bodies that have been battered and broken down over 10+ years of footy. These guys will continue to get injured regularly.

The other bottom teams are all ahead of us in their rebuilding phase and we are still heavily reliant on the few gun veterans still kicking around for us. I If we improve on 2014, it won't be by much. GWS should get out of the bottom four this year and Melbourne are looking stronger. The Bulldogs are an unknown quantity having lost a lot of experience and talent as well as sacking the coach. But they do have an excellent young midfield brigade with a fair bit of AFL footy behind them. It's possible that the kids won't be able to handle the pressure without Griffen, Cooney, Gia and Higgins in there, Crameri might get suspended and Boyd might boot 10 goals for the year on the way to the spoon. But I suspect they'll be a little better than us and we'll be taking the country's best young midfielder in November.

Interesting analysis that we won't improve due to our age & games difference between our oldest and youngest, but then have GWS improving?

 

[joop]

Here you go:
View attachment 111699

Their list is so overrated

 

[LennyStarkiller]

I honestly don't care where we finish this season just as long we can see improvement and being able to keep up with teams for atleast the majority of games with less goals scored against us and more of a spread of goals kicked with not so much of a heavy reliance on Roo.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Let me say, I will be very very happy to be proven wrong, but...

For me, the big win this year will be seeing the kids growing into themselves as footballers and men; the glimpses become more prolonged and more often; and the thumpings are rarer.

For me it's not about how many we win, or where we finish- it's more about getting the foundations set so that from next year on, we start to bear fruit.

And I'm gonna love being on that journey with the boys!

Eloquently put and well said. I agree 100%

 

[aussierulesrules]

On the Bulldogs board and main board they seem convinced that Stringer is going to kick up to 50+ goals this year. They also seem to be hoping or expecting that Macrae will be able to continue his upwards progression, despite most likely being tagged as often as every week, at just 21yo. They also presumably won't be getting any injuries, because their depth is the youngest and least experienced in the whole comp.

This was posted on the main board the other day and shows how vulnerable they will be to injuries this year:

skininthegame.com.au

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

I think most people on here agree we're on the right track and FWIW we are. We've recruited well the last 3-4 years and we will need to do so for at least the next 2. We have the makings talentwise of a really good team - the problem is that most of these players need another 2-3 years of experience and pre seasons to get the right spread of ages (the 23yo becomes the 26yo, the 19yo becomes the 22yo and so on). We'll keep on adding top end talent to the list with one of the best recruiting teams in the AFL and farewell great servants to the club. It's important to note the words top-end - having access to top 5 picks, (and top 20 picks for those players that slip down the pecking order - thank you Hugh Goddard).

If you compare it to our side in the early noughties you'd say we're more even across the lines. I'd love some more top end midfield class which we'll grab in the next two drafts me thinks

Just a little while longer peeps. If I had to guess I would say two more years, (give the kids from the last 3-4 years time to really graduate from rookies to AFL players proper), before we start to really march up the ladder.

But hey what do I know?

 

[holllywood]

It's easy to over rate the teams list in the pre season, especially if the noise coming from the club is that our players are 'burning down the track', and it's not just St.Kilda doing it but every other AFL club.

Our % last year was 60. This shows just how far back we are as a football club. Not even Melbourne have finished with such a low %.

There is cause to be optimistic as we seem to be building a nice core group of players with some high end talent, but 2015 should not be judged on wins or losses.

 

[Sir Skid]

Blues just took a step closer to the bottom 4 IMO with Murphy injured and Walker going in for more surgery.

 

[aussierulesrules]

holllywood Melbourne in 2013 finished with a % of 54, just for starters.

The following facts put our season last year into a bit of perspective and show how much of a difference being closer to a full strength this year could make to our team if we happen to have a better injury run:

Last year we were missing as many as 8 of our best 22 or so for over two thirds of the season- none of the following played more than 7 games for the year:

Fisher ("Backline general", still looks to be one of our top 6 or so)
Hickey (No.1 choice in the ruck)
Gilbert (Easily makes us a better team when he's playing, due to his size, speed, tank, versatility, reading of the play, tackling, chemistry with Chips and Dempster, etc)
Geary (Top 6 in our previous two B&F's)
Roberton (Top 10 in our B&F the year before)
Lee (Who kicked 16 goals in his 8 games between R15 and R23 the previous year, including 3 lots of 3, despite playing injured)
Eli (Who played from R1 till he broke his arm, the strongest part of our year)
Wright (Who was likewise in the team from R1 till he broke his leg)

So that's 8 of potentially our best 22 of last year who played no more than 7 games for the year, due to either an injury at the time, or in Roberton and Lee's case, poor form and/or fitness, due to major offseason operations. That's on top of Steven playing the whole year injured, Joey playing for about 2/3 of the season with at least one injury, Armo missing two months of the season with his leg issues, Webster only playing 11 games due to injury and even Savage only playing 8 games down back, where he was infinitely better than when he was playing forward or midfield.

So that's as many as 12 of our best 22 or thereabouts who had their seasons very significantly affected by injury, or slow recovery from major surgery and another one who proved to be comfortably best 18 once moved to the backline, where he only got to play the 8 games.

With all that taken into account, plus the fact we only played the bottom 4 from the previous year 3 times in total for the year, it's no bloody wonder we came last (albeit only by percentage), with such a low %, especially as we were in full-rebuild mode and as such had so many making up our depth who were young and inexperienced.

We may be coming from a long way back, but we may also have a better injury run this year, we have an easier draw (5 games v the bottom 4 from last year, two more than last year) and don't forget that WB lost their last 11 games of 2012 by an average of 60 points, yet came out and won 8 games the following year, which shows what can be done (not that I'm personally expecting us to win 8 this year, especially as there look to be no "easy-beats" this year).

 

[mad-saint-guy]

Interesting analysis that we won't improve due to our age & games difference between our oldest and youngest, but then have GWS improving?

Most players start hitting their straps and making a genuine impact around the 50 games mark, here are the GWS players with over 50 games experience and those almost certain to hit 50 this year

Ryan Griffen
Heath Shaw
Joel Patful
Callan Ward
Shane Mumford
Rhys Palmer
Dylan Addison
Tom Scully
Phil Davis
Devon Smith
Adam Treloar
Adam Kennedy
Toby Greene
Jeremy Cameron
Dylan Shiel
Thomas Bugg (49)
Curtly Hampton (46)
Stephen Coniglio (44)
Tim Mohr (43)
Will Hoskin Elliot (39)
Lachie Whitfield (30)

21 in total, all either in their prime or with their best footy ahead of them. They are so, so far ahead of us it's not funny.

And ours

Riewoldt
Montagna
Schneider
Fisher
Ray
Gilbert
Armitage
Geary
Steven
Savage
Roberton
Delaney (48)
Weller (48)
Newnes (47)

14 in total. Schneider is a rookie, Roberton and Ray aren't necessarily in our best 22 and I'd be surprised if Gilbert plays more than 10 games this year. I suspect another wooden spoon is in the works for 2015 and another bottom four finish in 2016. We might be in the 10th-14th range in 2017 and then in 2018 we could start to push for finals.

 

[holllywood]

ARR, bloody 2013 Melbourne, the one year I didn't check.

There is no doubting our horrible injury run in 2014 and the massive affect it had on our season (yet it has contributed to the quality of depth we have for 2015).

But we have also lost Lenny Hayes (2nd in our BnF), Clinton Jones (16 games in 2014), Gwilt (17 games) and Stanley (19 games). These are big losses for the club on and off the field. The latter three were maligned at different points during the season by us but were still important players for us nonetheless.

Their losses can be outweighed by a mixture of a good injury run and natural improvement from our younger players, but it is still a massive step back for a team that just finished last (not as big as the Dogs' but still big).

 

[joop]

Most players start hitting their straps and making a genuine impact around the 50 games mark, here are the GWS players with over 50 games experience and those almost certain to hit 50 this year

Ryan Griffen
Heath Shaw
Joel Patful
Callan Ward
Shane Mumford
Rhys Palmer
Dylan Addison
Tom Scully
Phil Davis
Devon Smith
Adam Treloar
Adam Kennedy
Toby Greene
Jeremy Cameron
Dylan Shiel
Thomas Bugg (49)
Curtly Hampton (46)
Stephen Coniglio (44)
Tim Mohr (43)
Will Hoskin Elliot (39)
Lachie Whitfield (30)

21 in total, all either in their prime or with their best footy ahead of them. They are so, so far ahead of us it's not funny.

And ours

Riewoldt
Montagna
Schneider
Fisher
Ray
Gilbert
Armitage
Geary
Steven
Savage
Roberton
Delaney (48)
Weller (48)
Newnes (47)

14 in total. Schneider is a rookie, Roberton and Ray aren't necessarily in our best 22 and I'd be surprised if Gilbert plays more than 10 games this year. I suspect another wooden spoon is in the works for 2015 and another bottom four finish in 2016. We might be in the 10th-14th range in 2017 and then in 2018 we could start to push for finals.

Again it's interesting that you count Whitfield on 30 games but not hickey. We have a number of players around 25 games that could end up near this magical 50 game mark I hear so often.
You're entitled to your opinion, unfortunately it's not so pleasant.
Cannot see us spending 4-5 years in the bottom 4 personally. Especially after next year with the amount of players reaching 50 games.