August - Daily Campaigner.

[swansfan_20]

How long has Muncey been training?

Since January.

 

[FallingLiefs]

New Time in the next at Belmont, 30:1. fav pretty hard to beat though.

finally maps well and misses the kick. story of my life.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Despite Australia's best tipster Tony Braz also being on Velox is blowing like a gale.

He's not the countries worst for no reason.

Its amazing how many of his get out, sometimes to double their opening quote.

 

[FallingLiefs]

his tipping is the best thing about him on sky.....

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Me trying to work out the winner of the Memsie

Yep, completely with you on this. Ill have a bet though (or two, three, four, hmm maybe five) cause its what i do.

Agree with Liefs, i think Setorius is def overs, the current $34 and $9.50 is a great price.


Other chances:

- Boban (on the Brisbane 1st up win over this distance can most definitely win, can you really trust him though, REALLY? Im not uber keen about $5 to find out)
- Smokin Joey (getting a very good price after a internal bleed last start, erase run from memory, $17 or better? Yes please!! so long as the rain doesn't come down too much over the next few days, handles soft but doesn't want it any worse)
- Entirely Platinum (usually goes very well first up over a distance like this, handles all going, may even handle softer track better than a few of these do, will be up somewhere on the speed, at the $12, keen)

----------------------

Winning hopes but dependant on betting moves and track rating:

- Rising Romance (wait to see any market movement over the next few days, should tell you all you need to know)
- Volkstok (talent, think he's going to be competitive in any race up to 2000m this spring, wants a dead + track though)
- Weary (the opposite of Volkstok, wetter the better, depending on track depends which one goes in the quad)

If any of the others apart from Prince OP or Dandino win i won't be shocked in the slightest but they're the 6 I've got it nailed down to, clear as mud i know, glad i could help.

Bets I've placed as of now:

Entirely Platinum 0.5 W @ $12 1.1U P @$3.7
Setorius 0.2U W @ $34 0.5U P @ $9.50

Waiting on:

Smokin Joey, for Ladbrokes SP TT+ 20% promo (think he will get out further and he's the roughie I'm most keen about, will be my biggest collect on the race if he salutes)
Weary, if the rain starts falling
Boban, for a better price, if he stays at the current $5 or less i won't bother
Rising Romance, if she starts firming in the market
Vlockstock, if the sun starts shining or the rain misses Caulfield


Dismissing but pay to follow:

- Hi World (talent, has a habit of getting back first up however, unproven at wfa and barrier because of his first up pattern has completely put me off)
- Stratum Star (just think this level is a touch too far, he's a beauty but not convinced he's a genuine wfa, he will run a race and will no doubt be in the top six or seven but a no for me as a winning chance on Saturday)

 

[Aussie Assault]

Pretty good early group race the Memsie. Smokin' Joey had excuses last start and is probably fit enough to beat a lot of these resuming if he's all good from last start.

Stratum Star got far too far back from his draw last start but probably finished better than anything. Like A11, not sure he's quite in this class but at 1400m with a decent run under his belt, I'll be loading up on the place bet and will be by far my biggest bet of the day.

Hard to back Boban anymore with confidence. Love the horse but hard to guess which Boban will turn up.

Weary had never ran at Caulfield so I'm happy to just watch it. Petrology also watching, last start was pathetic and surprising.

 

[iluvparis]

Yup, very difficult to find a horse with no question marks heading into this. Suggests taking something at double figures EW is the way to play (actually suggests not betting on the race is the way to play).

 

[iluvparis]

Ballarat - Race 6 - 5.Misty Grey @ $4.60

 

[rideclutch]

I'm taking a set against all the older horses except Rising Romance and just hoping one of the 4yo's has made the progression to WFA.

Think Volkster is the one most likely but massive Hi World fan, hoping he can use his barrier and be a bit handier. Stratum Star looks tested but he's so honest and can put himself in the race, can't see him running my poorly.

 

[iluvparis]

Ballarat Quads

1,2,5 / 3,10,11 / 8,10,11 / 2,9,11
1,2,5 / 10 / 8,10,11 / 9

 

[iluvparis]

Geelong

Race 7 - 2.Roycey @ $3.60
Race 8 - 6.Cool Rules @ $4.80

 

[Windy At Moorabbin]

What's is everyone's thoughts on Rich Enuff? I'm happy to take the $2.30 available. Will be a group 1 class sprinter and doesn't have to give much weight to a bunch of BM95 sprinters. Query is the 9 months off

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah have also taken the $2.30 - think its one of those ones where it will either look HUGE overs post race or you just never back him again.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Agree, trials have been great and he just wins if he's anywhere near his best. Race day will tell the story, if he goes like a busted for two runs it will be pull up stumps and off to the breeding barn.

 

[FallingLiefs]

What's is everyone's thoughts on Rich Enuff? I'm happy to take the $2.30 available. Will be a group 1 class sprinter and doesn't have to give much weight to a bunch of BM95 sprinters. Query is the 9 months off

i also took the $2.25, he was next level stuff in an OK 3yo crop.

You might be underselling the field a bit, most interesting race of the day for mine but still backing him in.

 

[Jugada]

Betfair offering a free crack at your first unsuccessful lay bet on Memsie Stakes day.

Up to $100 Money Back on your first unsuccessful lay. Win bets only. Have to opt in for it

Could be a nice little money spinner if you get on a roll

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Betfair offering a free crack at your first unsuccessful lay bet on Memsie Stakes day.

Up to $100 Money Back on your first unsuccessful lay. Win bets only. Have to opt in for it

Could be a nice little money spinner if you get on a roll

#bobanasfav, despite being a winning chance, all day, every day.

 

[iluvparis]

Betfair offering a free crack at your first unsuccessful lay bet on Memsie Stakes day.

Up to $100 Money Back on your first unsuccessful lay. Win bets only. Have to opt in for it

Could be a nice little money spinner if you get on a roll

Nice spot

 

[rideclutch]

Race 7 - 2.Roycey @ $3.60

I like the horse, but your jock has ridden 1 winner in a year and a half and he gets back. #caveat

 

[Jugada]

I saw the other day Luxbet have a "Cash Out" option for all their racing as well, has anyone here tried using it and whats it like?

The idea of having a cash out option in-race on greyhounds seems ridiculous as the race will probably be over by the time the bet is confirmed

 

[Jugada]

or is it even in-race? Or just you can cash out if the odds firm pre post

 

[Main Man]

Finally we get to see some quality fields at Caulfield.

Fawkner looked extremely hard to beat in the Memsie if he had drawn a marble, I had 7 of his last 10 runs in the distance range of 1400-2000M good enough to win this race most times and the other 3 would have put him very close, the fact that they scratched him when drawing poorly suggests he was there to win which means he will be very hard to beat in the Makybe in 2 weeks.

Boban being overrated on his Birsbane form, some might suggest he found form again but realistically he rated to the same level he has in all of his last 10 runs, 2-3 lengths off the very best but good enough to put him in the finish of the weaker Brisbane races, having said that no surprises to see him win as it is not an elite G1 on paper.

Tough race, Startum Star and High World are the horses on potential but I won't be backing anything now.

Excited to see Rich Enuff return, you are taking 2.30 to see whether he has returned near his best because if he has he wins, all his runs prior to the Coolmore (cooked) have 1-2 lengths on anything else in this field, have loved his trials & how he looks physically (I think the extra time off would have been of benefit) personally think 2.30 is good gamble on him running somewhere near his best.

I like Bounding but think she would have been better going to the mares 1200M.

Speaking of which Cosmic Endeavour looks well placed, her form up to 1400M is elite for mares grade, she won the Canterbury Stakes last campaign beating Catkins, Criterion, Hooked, Leebaz, Royal Descent and Sacred Falls rating 1.5 lengths off genuine G1 WFA, that wins this by 2 or more lengths and they are serving up $5 on the back of 2 nice trials. She is much better weighted here than she was first up last campaign.

At Rosehill I think Japonisme will be very hard to beat again, his last two runs have been high class and no reason why he cannot repeat with the soft run from barrier 1.

Other horse of interest is River Wild, won impressively on debut and apparently working well at home, 3rd or 4th favourite for the Spring Champion, no bet for me but hoping to see him run well.

 

[iluvparis]

or is it even in-race? Or just you can cash out if the odds firm pre post

I'd say its the latter - or lets you cash out your horseracing multis.

 

[iluvparis]

I like the horse, but your jock has ridden 1 winner in a year and a half and he gets back. #caveat

dat 4 kilo claim though

 

[iluvparis]

Quad

1,4,7 / 2,5,7 / 1,2,8 / 3,6,7