Australian sports markets and how they relate to the AFL

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Matchu

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In US sports there is often talk about "small markets" and "big markets" in relation to their geographical location and the market they are competing for. So let's do a little analysis of AFL cities and their respective market:

1. Sydney
Population: 4.8m (2014)
AFL teams: 2
Other major sports teams: 15 (NRL, BBL, AL, SR, NBL)

2. Melbourne
Population: 4.4m (2014)
AFL teams: 9
Other major sports teams: 7 (BBL, AL, NRL, SR, NBL)

3. Brisbane
Population: 2.2m (2014)
AFL teams: 1
Other major sports teams: 4 (NRL, SR, AL, BBL)

4. Perth
Population: 2m (2014)
AFL teams: 2
Other major sports teams: 4 (AL, BBL, SR, NBL)

5. Adelaide
Population: 1.3m (2014)
AFL teams: 2
Other major sports teams: 3 (AL, BBL, NBL)

6. Gold Coast
Population: 614k (2014)
AFL teams: 1
Other major sports teams: 1 (NRL)

12. Geelong
Population: 184k
AFL teams: 1
Other major sports teams: 0

As you can see, the AFL has representation in the six largest markets of Australia. From a population view point, Melbourne is clearly over represented and Sydney is clearly under represented. The AFL is taking notice of these markets. Simply put, the city of Sydney is the biggest market in Australia and that's why the Giants were started. The AFL also tried to remove North Melbourne from the flooded Melbourne market and successfully removed Fitzroy.

The potential of the Sydney market is enormous with an even market share of 2.4m between the Giants and Swans. Now obviously the Swans are far more popular than the Giants at the moment but the point I was trying to get across was that you have a market of 4.8m people to share between 2 teams. No other market offers anything close to the potential Sydney offers the Giants and the Swans. Unsurprisingly, it's also the most competitive market in Australia with a total of 17 major professional sports teams. Getting your share in a market that competitive is hard enough but when you add in the lack of historical support for Aussie rules in Sydney and the Giants still being in their infancy, it becomes a difficult task to generate interest from nothing.

The Melbourne market isn't overly hard to read into. If there was an even split of supporters to each of the 9 teams in Melbourne then you would have under 500,000 supporters for each club. Outside of Geelong, that's the worst even market share in the AFL. Of course we know there isn't an even share in Melbourne which makes it really hard for the less popular teams. Add to that another 7 major sports teams in Melbourne and things are getting extremely hard, which would explain why some of the Melbourne teams need to travel interstate to top up their earnings. The logical statement to make when it comes to the Melbourne market is that there is simply too many team based in Melbourne.

The Brisbane market is an interesting one because it offers just under the market share of Sydney with 2.2m people assigned to the Lions. Adding to that is the idea that the market doesn't appear to be overly competitive with only 4 other major sports teams based in Brisbane. However, Brisbane's historical links to the two rugby codes has made it very hard for the Lions to get a shoe in and it almost took three consecutive premierships for the city to actually embrace the team, even if it was just a temporary embracement. Brisbane does appear to be a fickle market it when it comes to their interest in AFL and could be classed as fair weather for the most part.

Although one has a larger population, both Perth and Adelaide are very similar markets when it comes to the AFL. They both do well considering their even market share and other major sports teams based in the cities. The Perth even market share of 1m per team is the third largest in the league while Adelaide's 650k sits just above the Gold Coast's market share. Similar amounts of other major sports teams in the two cities don't appear to have a huge affect on the four AFL teams.

The fast growing region of the Gold Coast-Tweed was particularly appealing to the AFL because they believed they already had a 40% share of the market and recognised it would be an investment that would pay off in the future when the market grows considerably. Having said that, the 614k market the Suns have is already larger than that of the Melbourne even market share and just slightly behind that of the Adelaide clubs. The AFL will feel a lot more comfortable with their investment on the Gold Coast in 10-15 years time when the city is expected to reach 1m people.

Geelong is by far the most interesting market in the AFL. Just 184k people live in Geelong yet they regularly pull crowds in excess of 20,000. That is more than 10% of a city's entire population going to the games every two weeks but we know that isn't really the case. There are plenty of Melbourne-based Cats supporters and, in my experiences, country Victorians seem to have a soft spot for Geelong which is understandable. There are no other major sports teams in Geelong which allows the Cats to have complete domination of the city's market and perhaps even define the city in some ways.

So you've got Melbourne and Sydney who are undoubtedly big markets in Australia while Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide probably fall into the middle category. Gold Coast and Geelong are the small market teams in the AFL. So what does it all mean? Big markets offer more opportunities for players and teams to make money. The Melbourne market can offer players like Chris Judd large third party deals that suddenly make it much more appealing. Now the AFL offers marketing contracts for players that are willing to play in Queensland and New South Wales so they can be competitive when it comes to player recruitment/retention.

It's always interesting to see how a medium/small market team is able to remain competitive in the AFL. Let's take my team for example:

Port Adelaide
Market size: 5/7 or =15/18
Memberships: 4/18
Home crowds: 4/18 (2014)

So very competitive despite being based in one of the smaller markets in Australia and the Crows numbers are even better so the SA teams do very well in the AFL. Anyway, reading into a city's market potential is probably a good indication of what the AFL will do next. They appear to view the markets of Hobart, Launceston and the rest of Tasmania as one which results in a market of a little over 500k. Does that warrant an AFL team? You need to consider growth rate which isn't on the Tasmanians side BUT if the opportunity to remove another Melbourne-based club arose the AFL would have to at least think about it. Take from that what you will.
 
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Monopoly Man

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I get that sport and subsequently the AFL is a business these days but I feel like more of a balance needs to be struck. The good people of Tassie deserve a team, even if it's never going to make a profit.

I get the appeal of Sydney and why they are persisting with the Giants but truth to be told it's a massive gamble, Aussie rules in Sydney has never been big and I can't see it ever changing all that much. Tasmania is AFL heartland and it's a bit of a slap in the face to continually ignore them.


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The AFL also tried to remove North Melbourne from the flooded Melbourne market

this is a myth spread by the vic media and north supporters, It was north who considered moving all the AFL did was offer to help them. The AFL gave North ten's of millions of dollars in assistance during the time of their supposed "forced" relocation. make no mistake the AFL would have loved north relocate, But North suggesting North were pressured into relocating is like suggesting howard pressured me to buy a house because of the first home owners grant.

Footscray was pressured to relocate but survived it. South Melbourne were forced to relocate, fitzroy was royally ****ed and merged/folded. North were handed millions of dollars in compo by the AFL and offered more money on top of that if they did end up going through with the relocation.

Full credit to those that wanted to keep the club in Melbourne by spreading a blatant lie it rallied the troops and kept the club in its hometown. But lets not pretend its anything other then a shared delusion.
 

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Bit time spent on that analysis, good work.

I do think however you have been too simple in defining market size. Sure, the population might be X amount of people but there is no way our game will reach or appeal to all of them. Would be interesting if we had survey samples from populations of each region so we can determine "interest" in AFL as a % and then apply that to the total population.

Could pretty much Guarantee results would come out that the next best expansion opportunities would be

1. WA
2. SA
3. TAS

People just aren't interested in AFL in sydney due to the hugely diverse population and it being traditional rugby heartland no matter how hard we shove it down their throats.
 

Pessimistic

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17 teams in sydney 16 in melbourne and melbourne should lose teams ?

Also, although AFL has more money than other sports, it also takes a lot more to establish a team than other sports. Ie need longer term thinking

But thats good right ?

Also Hawthorn have the most home games outside victoria, the original reason for this was to avoid the financial burden of plying at etihad. Stadium factor has to be accounted for.

If we kept waverley park ( right in the centre of a population of over 1 million if weare talking demographics) wed be based in victoria

If we are looking for somewhere to put a team. Waverley park is it. Th afl admitted as much when they had a stadium based away from sydneys CBD converted for GWS which incidentally plays games in canberra

I like to think demetrou\mcgloughlan wouldnt have closed waverley park like the predecessors did. It was astoundingly short sighted, it could have been kept as well as docklands for very little outlay
 
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Aug 14, 2011
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Bit time spent on that analysis, good work.

I do think however you have been too simple in defining market size. Sure, the population might be X amount of people but there is no way our game will reach or appeal to all of them. Would be interesting if we had survey samples from populations of each region so we can determine "interest" in AFL as a % and then apply that to the total population.

Could pretty much Guarantee results would come out that the next best expansion opportunities would be

1. WA
2. SA
3. TAS

People just aren't interested in AFL in Sydney due to the hugely diverse population and it being traditional rugby heartland no matter how hard we shove it down their throats.

Expansion gets a mention at a time when there are a good 100 players* on AFL lists not up to the standard required to play the game at the highest level. WHY?
*
my estimate , gut feel.

The basis of the original article is fine - add in markets like Tas with no AFL team, Newcastle, Wollongong & North Queensland, given the Geelong market/population is the smallest population wise quoted.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Australia_by_population

Another indicator could be the origin of players, where the stars of today & tomorrow come from particular as the increase in Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islanders has been a factor in moving to the national vomp.
 
Aug 14, 2011
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17 teams in sydney 16 in melbourne and melbourne should lose teams ?

Also, although AFL has more money than other sports, it also takes a lot more to establish a team than other sports. Ie need longer term thinking

But thats good right ?

Also Hawthorn have the most home games outside victoria, the original reason for this was to avoid the financial burden of plying at etihad. Stadium factor has to be accounted for.

If we kept waverley park ( right in the centre of a population of over 1 million if weare talking demographics) wed be based in victoria

If we are looking for somewhere to put a team. Waverley park is it. Th afl admitted as much when they had a stadium based away from sydneys CBD converted for GWS which incidentally plays games in canberra

I like to think demetrou\mcgloughlan wouldnt have closed waverley park like the predecessors did. It was astoundingly short sighted, it could have been kept as well as docklands for very little outlay

Is losing teams any more relevant than adding teams in the context of the original post, dont see it myself, its a review of where we are, take it for what it is & try to add some positivity.
 
When it comes to market share should we not look at teams that are competing with AFL in season?

No point counting say Victory and Heart as sharing a market with AFL teams. Id dare say alot of people support both codes and get memberships with both teams. Same with 20/20 teams.

I dont even know when the NBL season runs.

Its basically AFL vs NRL.

Interesting summations though.
 

Shoei

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Number 1 problem with these is always just looking at Populations and assuming "oh well there's 4.2Million people - that must mean we can split it nicely 4 ways and each team can have 1,000,000 followers".

There maybe 2.2million people in Brisbane - Now remove all the people that don't like AFL, don't already support another afl team, have no interest in sport at all or cant afford anything other than a passing interest in the game then you'll start to see some real market numbers.

2.2million people may only end up netting a real potential market of 100-300k people.

Same in Sydney, yes there are "4.2 million people" but its a fallacy to assume that there are 4.2 million potential supporters for teams.

The difference in the USA is that most cities have only one team - the only one with two NFL teams is the New York/New Jersey area but having a population of 20 million makes that easily possible.


The markets are not crowded out like Melbourne. They also don't have a rival football code that has a massive dislike for the other in two states.
 

Pusswah

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I'd be careful with the Port being 'very competitive despite being based in of the smaller markets' statement.
Two AFL teams in such a strong AFL state with almost one and a half million people - you'd want to have good memberships and match attendance.

Wholeheartedly agree on Tasmania - should have been well before Gold Coast on merit. The one doubt i'd have in my mind is how many potential supporters are already supporters of existing AFL clubs that wouldn't switch or sit on the fence with two teams. Mind you, I guess the same thing could have been said about Fremantle coming into the competition. Absolutely cannot question the pedigree of Tassie though, I reckon i'd hop on as a second team just from sentimentality. The Riewoldts, Hudson, Hart, Williams, ******* Richo!
 

Admiral Byng

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I think you need to be careful when listing other major sports teams as potential competition, and include only those that are on at the same time of year. For example, I follow the Dockers in the AFL, but I also follow the Scorchers in the BBL, and sort of follow the Wildcats in the NBL. Since they are on at different seasons to the AFL, they are not in competition. For me they are complimentary.
 
Aug 14, 2011
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When it comes to market share should we not look at teams that are competing with AFL in season?

No point counting say Victory and Heart as sharing a market with AFL teams. Id dare say alot of people support both codes and get memberships with both teams. Same with 20/20 teams.

I dont even know when the NBL season runs.

Its basically AFL vs NRL.

Interesting summations though.

Many of us are sports fans who can walk & chew gum
versus
fans of a club more than fans of a code.

Then there are the arts
WATCHING FROM THE SIDELINES

Australians enjoy both cultural and sporting interests in their spare time. The 2009-10 ABS survey of Attendance at Selected Cultural Venues and Events found that most Australians aged 15 years and over had attended at least one cultural venue or event in the 12 months prior to interview (15.0 million or 86%). The 2009-10 ABS survey of Spectator Attendance at Sporting Events found that going to sport as a spectator was not quite as popular, with 7.6 million people (43%) reporting that they had attended at least one sporting event in the last 12 months.



ATTENDANCE AT CULTURAL VENUES AND SPORTING EVENTS, By sex - 2009-10
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Women had a higher rate of attendance at cultural venues and events than men (88% compared with 83%). However, going to watch a sporting event, whether it be the local hockey club grand final or something on a larger scale like the AFL, was more popular with men (49%) than with women (37%).
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@....001~Nov+2011~Main+Features~Sport+and+Culture
 

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Pessimistic

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everyone looks at the US, but its not really like Australia.

lets look EPL greater london and Lancashire/chesire have accounted for about 2/3 of the clubs for years. in the eighties nineties the midlands were in there too.
in brazil rio state and sao Paulo state dominate. In Scotland all the bigger clubs are in the same two cities.

Australias setup us not unique, and whoever is this years most vulnerable victorian AFL club is several magnitudes more resilient than the two expansion clubs, and probably will be for at least two decades.
 
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everyone looks at the US, but its not really like Australia.

lets look EPL greater london and Lancashire/chesire have accounted for about 2/3 of the clubs for years. in the eighties nineties the midlands were in there too.
in brazil rio state and sao Paulo state dominate. In Scotland all the bigger clubs are in the same two cities.

Australias setup us not unique, and whoever is this years most vulnerable victorian AFL club is several magnitudes more resilient than the two expansion clubs, and probably will be for at least two decades.

The EPL has pro/rel. They don't pick and choose franchises the way the AFL does
 

Matt Stevic

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This big/small market thinking is useless in Australia. In the USA the population is much higher and spread into so many more major cities. There are fifty states and most have multiple major cities. In Australia, on the other hand, there are five cities with the vast majority of the population.

Although knowing the OP, I'd be seriously surprised if this wasn't a troll attempt aimed at supporters of smaller Melbourne clubs.
 

Brad Goodman

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The Australian market is too unique for it to be worth comparing to any other.

And in terms of small market teams, our salary cap is much less flexible than US sports (and of course nonexistent in English football) so I don't really think a small market team being successful, at the very least onfield, is that much of an achievement.

I appreciate the time and effort you've made though, it was a good read.
 

Matchu

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The AFL has 18 teams based in 7 markets - Sydney (2), Melbourne (9), Brisbane (1), Perth (2), Adelaide (2), Gold Coast (1) and Geelong (1). The Adelaide market is ranked 5th out of 7 in terms of population, being only bigger than the Gold Coast (6th) and Geelong (7th). Despite being equal 15th with the Crows in terms of market population, Port is ranked 4th out of 18 in both memberships and crowds. This would be understandable if the Crows weren't very popular but the Crows are even stronger than Port. This shows a considerably higher rate of market penetration in Adelaide than most markets in the league.
 
Aug 14, 2011
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The AFL has 18 teams based in 7 markets - Sydney (2), Melbourne (9), Brisbane (1), Perth (2), Adelaide (2), Gold Coast (1) and Geelong (1). The Adelaide market is ranked 5th out of 7 in terms of population, being only bigger than the Gold Coast (6th) and Geelong (7th). Despite being equal 15th with the Crows in terms of market population, Port is ranked 4th out of 18 in both memberships and crowds. This would be understandable if the Crows weren't very popular but the Crows are even stronger than Port. This shows a considerably higher rate of market penetration in Adelaide than most markets in the league.

Interesting interpretation of the numbers, what does it say about the other 17 clubs ...
 

Matchu

Norm Smith Medallist
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Interesting interpretation of the numbers, what does it say about the other 17 clubs ...
Every market is different. If nothing else it probably shows people in Adelaide are more willing to part with their hard earned when compared to the rest of Australia. The Adelaide BBL team managed to pull 50k to a game at Adelaide Oval this year so it's not just football. Probably also shows the Sydney, Melbourne and Perth markets are not as evenly split. The Crows and Power are as close as you get to an even market split in Australia.
 

fabulousphil

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Every market is different. If nothing else it probably shows people in Adelaide are more willing to part with their hard earned when compared to the rest of Australia. The Adelaide BBL team managed to pull 50k to a game at Adelaide Oval this year so it's not just football. Probably also shows the Sydney, Melbourne and Perth markets are not as evenly split. The Crows and Power are as close as you get to an even market split in Australia.

Memberships are cheap in Adelaide, most expensive in Perth and Adelaide Oval is a huge catalyst for SA memberships ATM

I would think the same thing will happen when the new Perth stadium opens, both teams in Perth have waiting lists.
 
Some interesting thoughts.

I believe the nsw afl market is small, theres a lack of passion for sport compared to other states full stop is the feel i get. But a lot of the population wont ever love an afl side, just dont care.

Tasmania is a big footy place with a pretty rich proud history. The game is established here, it may make it even more difficult, apart from a small market, two half done grounds, infighting stupid rivalries and so on, people have their teams already. But the afl could fund a team wherever it wanted really.
 
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Every market is different. If nothing else it probably shows people in Adelaide are more willing to part with their hard earned when compared to the rest of Australia. The Adelaide BBL team managed to pull 50k to a game at Adelaide Oval this year so it's not just football. Probably also shows the Sydney, Melbourne and Perth markets are not as evenly split. The Crows and Power are as close as you get to an even market split in Australia.

There's really no competition for the dollar from other sports during footy season in Adelaide, except for footy itself (SANFL, people's own local league or school footy commitments, etc.). Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and the Gold Coast all have NRL or Super Rugby going on during the AFL season, as well as multiple A-League teams (as opposed to Adelaide's one team) at the start of the year, too. 10 AFL teams in Victoria skews and divides the market and numbers there further, as well.
 
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Expansion gets a mention at a time when there are a good 100 players* on AFL lists not up to the standard required to play the game at the highest level. WHY?
*
my estimate , gut feel.

The basis of the original article is fine - add in markets like Tas with no AFL team, Newcastle, Wollongong & North Queensland, given the Geelong market/population is the smallest population wise quoted.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Australia_by_population

Another indicator could be the origin of players, where the stars of today & tomorrow come from particular as the increase in Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islanders has been a factor in moving to the national vomp.
Every market is different. If nothing else it probably shows people in Adelaide are more willing to part with their hard earned when compared to the rest of Australia. The Adelaide BBL team managed to pull 50k to a game at Adelaide Oval this year so it's not just football. Probably also shows the Sydney, Melbourne and Perth markets are not as evenly split. The Crows and Power are as close as you get to an even market split in Australia.

What it shows is there is nothing else to do in adelaide. Place is a s**t hole!
 

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