Betting superstitions/quirks

[TheKanga]

These some things i do/think when betting

- Feels like there is a quota of favs & big roughies to win, i feel hesitant to back a fav if the fav won in the race before or if to many favs have already won for the day.
- Don't like backing a horse if the jockey riding it won in the race before.
- More likely to back a horse if the jockey riding it narrowly got beat into 2nd or 3rd in the last race.
- Don't like backing horses that are coming straight from a maiden win into a higher class.

Anyone else do anything like this?

 

[Lensen]

the "I'm good at picking winners but terrible at making profit" puzzle has one more piece that makes sense

 

[TheKanga]

the "I'm good at picking winners but terrible at making profit" puzzle has one more piece that makes sense

What do you mean?
Also why does every thing have to turn into a personal dig on here?

You can't deny that there is often a pattern to results at some meets.
Obviously some horses are false favs and never had a chance to begin with.

 

[Lensen]

patterns are very easy to identify in hindsight

Based on these alleged insights you clearly look at the punt over far too short a time frame

With the possible exception of the last one which based on 18 sec thought might be a reasonable point to take

 

[TheKanga]

What i mean for example is hypothetically if i looked at R1 & R2.
Blake Shinn is riding a 8.00 chance that has decent form but probably an EW hope at best.
Then you look at R2 and notice he is riding a 1.60 fav that looks a good thing
That would make me not want to back his runner in R1 at all.

Also is it not fair to assume like all sports people jockies would have the urge to compete.
If they just had a good win they might lose some of the hunger in the next race.
If they narrowly missed out and are a good jockey riding a good horse they will be eager to rectify it next race.

Well when i do the form it's either the night before or the morning before the races start.

 

[Jugada]

Avoid points 1-3 as you may as well look up your horoscope to find lucky numbers on a meet if you are going to bother with that sort of thing. Point 4 could have merit - its not for me personally but there is something behind it at least

 

[TheKanga]

Avoid points 1-3 as you may as well look up your horoscope to find lucky numbers on a meet if you are going to bother with that sort of thing. Point 4 could have merit - its not for me personally but there is something behind it at least

Yeah i know it's probably silly and doesn't mean much.
However point no.3 has led me to wins before but it's not a sustainable tactic.
Just something that runs through my mind when looking at the races.

 

[Jugada]

What i mean for example is hypothetically if i looked at R1 & R2.
Blake Shinn is riding a 8.00 chance that has decent form but probably an EW hope at best.
Then you look at R2 and notice he is riding a 1.60 fav that looks a good thing
That would make me not want to back his runner in R1 at all.

Also is it not fair to assume like all sports people jockies would have the urge to compete.
If they just had a good win they might lose some of the hunger in the next race.
If they narrowly missed out and are a good jockey riding a good horse they will be eager to rectify it next race.

Well when i do the form it's either the night before or the morning before the races start.

Ok at least there is some sort of reasoning toward it. But still, people betting on a team or person to be hungry and try harder is a bit of a pet peeve of mine. Its just guessing how you think someone will be feeling and hoping that translates into a better or worse performance and their is nothing to say it will. There is just as much chance of a jockey getting down in the dumps after a bad loss and tanking his next race as there is him using it as motivation to improve

I dont see any benefit to this sort of thing personally

 

[terminators]

Point 4 has some merit, not because they can't win it's that more often than not they are unders.

They are jumping from racing against zero horses who have won a race to 14 horses who have won a race.

 

[FallingLiefs]

can confirm riding pissed (off) doesn't help.

 

[FallingLiefs]

although also from personal experience the jockey having a sizeable bet on the horse does help. #racing

 

[TheKanga]

Ok at least there is some sort of reasoning toward it. But still, people betting on a team or person to be hungry and try harder is a bit of a pet peeve of mine. Its just guessing how you think someone will be feeling and hoping that translates into a better or worse performance and their is nothing to say it will. There is just as much chance of a jockey getting down in the dumps after a bad loss and tanking his next race as there is him using it as motivation to improve

I dont see any benefit to this sort of thing personally

Yeah good points, i suppose it depends on the individuals temperament.
I remember you saying that it was your pet peeve when someone said something similar in the AFL thread.

 

[terminators]

although also from personal experience the jockey having a sizeable bet on the horse does help. #racing

Well said Danny

 

[Lensen]

Shouldn't be a pet peeve if it creates overs elsewhere

 

[Jugada]

Shouldn't be a pet peeve if it creates overs elsewhere

It shouldnt, but it is

 

[TheKanga]

Shouldn't be a pet peeve if it creates overs elsewhere

Haha my bets won't move the market.
To small.

Related & possibly stupid question...

If a losing punter (a complete mug) put a big (ish) bet on something would that make the horse drift?
Alternatively if a successful punter put a big bet on would the horse shorten?
Is there any way bookies take the individual into account when taking bets?

 

[TheKanga]

Point 4 has some merit, not because they can't win it's that more often than not they are unders.

They are jumping from racing against zero horses who have won a race to 14 horses who have won a race.

Often i've found these horses who win their maidens impressively don't translate it into the higher class straight away.
They can be false favs as the bookies tend to start their odds short to trick people

 

[FallingLiefs]

Haha my bets won't move the market.
To small.

Related & possibly stupid question...

If a losing punter (a complete mug) put a big (ish) bet on something would that make the horse drift?
Alternatively if a successful punter put a big bet on would the horse shorten?
Is there any way bookies take the individual into account when taking bets?

No, yes, yes.

 

[terminators]

They can be false favs as the bookies tend to start their odds short to trick people

Good to know

 

[TheKanga]

Good to know

Not sure if sarcastic?

 

[Lensen]

Not sure if sarcastic?

Here, Probably start with the assumption of sarcasm and work backwards

 

[FallingLiefs]

Given it was a half sensible question.

Bookies will always move their market to where they try to make money regardless of the result. So when a know nothing puts a sizeable bet on if it throws out their liability they will shorten their price.

What changes when a good punter puts money on is they see where the money is coming from and accept x percentage of it. generally when smart money comes it's right so they'll use that info to protect themselves against that result when taking future bets. Generally that means shortening the odds or palming it off.

 

[TheKanga]

Here, Probably start with the assumption of sarcasm and work backwards

I will be shocked to be sitting here when i get a non sarcastic response on this forum.

 

[Jugada]

 

[nooblet]

Given it was a half sensible question.

Bookies will always move their market to where they try to make money regardless of the result. So when a know nothing puts a sizeable bet on if it throws out their liability they will shorten their price.

i don't know if you're only talking about horse racing (i have no idea about horses) but that isn't true for sports markets (at least for major sports at large books), but a lot of people say it.