You are right Bishop, their spine is solid and still a lot of years in them. If Carlisle chooses to leave then the priority should be one of the two young KPFs you have mentioned, Weideman will take 1-2 years and McKay more 2-3. They still need to bring in players with pace, If Carlisle is traded hopefully they can get a Parish or Tucker for him. The plan now for the Bombers now has to be along the path of the Saints or Dogs, take the reality pill and re-build.
Bishop's 2015 Draft Thread
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- #52
I still think Francis is good enough to be the Pick 3, but unless he grows he's only a third tall really.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Blues go with Charlie Curnow or Sam Weideman in the hope of getting a good forward out of them. I rate both of them highly and I think Carlton drafting a tall will suit them rather than drafting a 3rd defender.
So if Blues take Charlie Curnow at Pick 3 due to the chance he could move into the midfield with some work.
Bombers at 4 will all depend on Jake Carlisle- If he goes they will no doubt need a tall. If he doesn't I still think the Dons should/could draft a small or Aaron Francis. No doubt at Pick 4 you'd hope they bid on Mills/Hopper the best mids from the draft. Parish didn't set the world on fire during the champs, but I've seen enough of him over the last two years to know he'll make it. 50/50 decision for Essendon on whether they need a tall or a small mid. Weideman will take two years, I just think they would be better off looking at a Nick Coughlan or Matthew Flynn as a tall later in the draft.
I'll say they take Francis at Pick 4.
Saints and Melbourne would both be looking at Darcy Parish and Rhys Mathieson. Two Vic Country lads, Parish is more of an outside running midfielder, while Mathieson is a inside mid with good ferocity.
I'd think Saints can have Parish, hence Mathieson falls to Melbourne.
We've still got a fair bit of the season to play out anyway.
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No doubt clubs like Carlton/Essendon who probably need some form of a rebuild should take the lead of St Kilda, who have drafted fantastically over the last few seasons. If either Carlton/Essendon could get 3 picks inside the first round it would be very favourable for them- even in a shallow draft pool the top talent is still there.
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- #53
Couldn't agree more- St Kilda have set a very good lead out of how clubs should go about a "re-build".
2013: Picks 3,18,19
2014: Pick 1, 21,22, 41
Not that they've just drafted well, but they've really thought it out getting those picks (relatively inside the first round)
I'd hope that Carlton/Essendon look at St Kilda's lead and attempt to get three picks inside the top 20- Even if that means making some tough decisions on certain players.
gillo94
Norm Smith Medallist
Chance of Parish going to Blues with 3?
- Thread starter
- #55
As long as he's available he's a chance- But i'd be thinking you'd be very likely to draft a tall. Especially after you drafted 3 smalls (+ Foster who needs gym time & the older Jaksch/Jones) last year. Year before that was all smalls too.
I think Carlton are OK for the moment in the midfield department, key position players will make up most of this year's top 10.
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Our KPP under 23: Daniher, Steinberg (likely delistee) and Ambrose (who isn't really a KPP). We've gone small apart from those two in every draft since Hird took over. Need talls desperately.
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- #57
(This is my view- I know some Essendon supporters are pretty split on what they want)
If you're not getting a top 3 pick, is the risk on McKay and Weideman worth the risk? Both need plenty of development time 2 years plus.
Curnow is another untried forward, who has played a bit of defence in his junior career as well. Also 3 are risks- Essendon can't afford risks in my eyes.
If you get two picks inside the first round, I would be happy to see them take a tall early and a small with the other pick- But I think it would be hard to say no to a Darcy Parish/Rhys Mathieson for a forward that will take 2+ years. (Carlisle may be a way to get another top pick)
Coughlan/Flynn/S.Skinner would be options that they could get with their 3rd round that I feel will be very good players.
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
We are getting a top 3 pick. We'll get smashed by Melbourne this week and I reckon GC will overtake us by years end.
Despite their lack of outside run, I feel the Bombers main problem is that Carlisle doesn't want to play as the old CHF. He likes the ease of the back line where he performs at his best, this doesn't fit the team plan with Hooker and Hurley cementing those spots. I would trade Carlisle and hope there are no road blocks with the WADA case, take Parish early as he has the run and the polish the Bombers need. With the Carlisle first round trade pick I would go for Weideman first then McKay if Weideman is gone, over the next five years they need to develop a partner for Daniher who will crash the packs and keeps presenting.
gillo94
Norm Smith Medallist
Bishop aside each players, which AFL players past or present do you model their game to?
Schache 1
Weiterman 2
Francis 3 (Goddard?)
Parish 4
Mathieson 5
Ah CHEE 6
Weideman 7
Curnow 8
Partington 9
Balic 10
Tucker 11
Rice 12
Silvagni 13
Hopper 14
Keayes 15
Mills 16
- Thread starter
- #62
I'll get back to you Gillo over the next 24 hours, with the Cricket being on my sleeping patterns are very questionable!
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I completely agree with this Bish!!!!
If cartlon/ Essendon want to know how to approach a rebuild this is it!
The lowest pick have been used on talented players in forward half, as i honestly think fwd skills are more instinctive and talent based.
Have used late 1st/early2nd picks for players who are 'there abouts' with massive upsides!
- Thread starter
- #64
I'm not a fan of comparisons Gillo, I'll make an exception for a few that should model there games of certain players. I just think comparisons are worthless because how many Nat Fyfe's/ Bontempellis are we going to see? (My view is not shared by others)
WeiterING Harry Taylor would be a good player to look at, a nice defender who likes to intercept the marks/read the play very well.
Weideman is a bit like Joe Daniher where he probably takes a while to develop, but can follow Daniher's transition from the skinny tall forward to a good forward.
Balic- Has a basketball background (a player like that is Pendles/Petracca) would be a good model.
Silvagni is a very skinny 3rd tall forward (December born mind you), no reason he can't develop into a good third forward. I'd think it would be best for him to model his game on another 2nd/3rd tall forward as I don't think he'll tall enough to become a KPF monster like a Cloke/Hawkins etc. (My view is that he is a better defender and should work on playing there)
Rice has a nice kick, but he's probably just a HBF/BP for me. A player like Jasper Pittard/Kade Simpson would be good to look at.
(Feel free to ask others the same question if you want some other people's views)
- Thread starter
- #65
I've adjusted my Power Rankings, here are a few changes:
Bolters: Aidyn Johnson- Went back through some of my notes/vision and speaking with a few people I believe he'll find himself in the top 30 or so picks.
Eric Hipwood- Gone from 39 to pushing the top 20, had a great carnival for QLD, will be interesting to see where Keays and Hipwood end up pick wise in the next few months, I can see Hipwood (possibly) overtaking Keays.
Mitch Hibberd- Was at 50 for me in Rankings #1, really think he's better than that as long as he can stay injury free!
Harry McKay- Ok, I'm on the Harry McKay train gone from 51 to where he is now! Big jump, but keep an eye on his brother Ben, same age but Ben plays at the other end.
Sliders: Jordan Snadden- Hardly sighted during the champs, perhaps overrated him due to the Academy squad.
Matt Allen- Probably see him more as a rookie type player, kicked goals in the champs, but needs to do more than that in my eyes.
Theo Thompson- From 43 to low 70s, a quiet carnival for him but he's a good chance to be drafted.
Jack Silvagni- From 54 to 75, I still don't see it with Jack. He'll get drafted no doubt, but really hope he can do something in the rest of the season, I'd like to see him down back where i see him as a better prospect.
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I'll be updating the Phantom Draft either next week or the week after as well as getting the write-ups on the academy/Father Son kids updated.
Bolters: Aidyn Johnson- Went back through some of my notes/vision and speaking with a few people I believe he'll find himself in the top 30 or so picks.
Eric Hipwood- Gone from 39 to pushing the top 20, had a great carnival for QLD, will be interesting to see where Keays and Hipwood end up pick wise in the next few months, I can see Hipwood (possibly) overtaking Keays.
Mitch Hibberd- Was at 50 for me in Rankings #1, really think he's better than that as long as he can stay injury free!
Harry McKay- Ok, I'm on the Harry McKay train gone from 51 to where he is now! Big jump, but keep an eye on his brother Ben, same age but Ben plays at the other end.
Sliders: Jordan Snadden- Hardly sighted during the champs, perhaps overrated him due to the Academy squad.
Matt Allen- Probably see him more as a rookie type player, kicked goals in the champs, but needs to do more than that in my eyes.
Theo Thompson- From 43 to low 70s, a quiet carnival for him but he's a good chance to be drafted.
Jack Silvagni- From 54 to 75, I still don't see it with Jack. He'll get drafted no doubt, but really hope he can do something in the rest of the season, I'd like to see him down back where i see him as a better prospect.
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I'll be updating the Phantom Draft either next week or the week after as well as getting the write-ups on the academy/Father Son kids updated.
Zach Package
Prespakis2Tsatas
I noticed the McKay at FB on the teamsheet and initially thought Harry bad been switched back, but then I saw the other one and got a bit confused.
Is cut from a similar cloth physically?
- Banned
- #68
Saints didn't trade Armitage and Steven. McEvoy and a role player in Stanley were replaceable after Longer was recruited. They needed to find late first round picks after they traded for Lee and Hickey plus later picks.
- Thread starter
- #69
Correct. But they were able to get those picks
2013: Picks 3,18,19
2014: Pick 1, 21,22, 41
Which I'm referring too, IMO Carlton for example will/need to trade to get picks over the next few years to "re-build". Whether than means that Henderson/Yarran leave gives them picks, but at the same time they may target Carlisle for example.
It may be a weak draft this year, but to re-build successfully you need as many high class talents from the first round/Top 25 which is where the best players (usually) come from. There is no point a re-building club getting Pick 3, 24, 42, 46, 55, 60 - They need to attempt to get as many in the Top 25 range.
- Thread starter
- #70
As Wizard said, he's more bulkier (9kg more than Harry) and plays at the other end. Very good at dropping off his opponent and intercept marking, has a good frame. I'm surprised he wasn't on the Power list to start with. (Obviously a December born lad like his brother)
gillo94
Norm Smith Medallist
Bishop is possible for elite talent to be available at Picks 6-10? Without selecting academy players?
I'm trying to come up with a plan to as you mentioned get as many picks inside the top25. I'm also wondering in the top10 how many good elite skillful players are there?
- Thread starter
- #72
Yes, most definitely.
Let's say for example these are the top 6 picks (not including academy blokes) Schache, Weitering, Francis, Parish, Mathieson, Tucker. I'd even suggest that after the first two [Schache & Weitering] each clubs would rate the next 5 or so players different, which could mean that dropping down the order or getting more picks isn't the worst year.
You'd still have Ah Chee, Curnow, Balic and Partington who I believe are 'elite' talent (even one of the above may slip for example). There are others after that such as Collins, O'Kearney, Bonner, McKay, Weideman etc That I feel will become good players. Overall I think the top 25 is solid, after that it's really dependant on how clubs and others rate each individual players.
Each of these players have their positive and negatives, someone like Riley Bonner who probably won't be top 10, he's good a great kick on him and has valuable assets.
Speaking with a recruiter I know on the weekend, he was confident that their club will only take 2-3 picks in the National Draft.
It's a shallow draft, but that doesn't mean the Top 20-25 haven't got any skills. I just wouldn't want multiple picks outside that range personally.
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Fwiw - the main thing (bar the impending departure of Carlisle) is outside run and carry.
Yes, we need to fill most holes on our list but the inside midfield role is one of the most easily replaceable and one who despite being thin on the ground still has a fair bit of upside on our list.
Fwiw; I'd be hoping we can try and sneak a second first round pick for Carlisle and then easily replacing him with a Michael Hartley/Mitch Brown/Jack Hutchins type in the third round for an immediate replacement and allowing a developing tall to do just that. Develop.
I'd absolutely be stoked to finish with a draft of;
1st - Darcy Parish
2nd - Kieran Collins/Sam Weideman
3rd - Luke Partington/Nick O'Kearney
4th - Mitch Brown/Michael Hartley
5th - Gach Nyuon/Andre Parella
6th - Aidan Johnson/Oleg Markov
Yes, we need to fill most holes on our list but the inside midfield role is one of the most easily replaceable and one who despite being thin on the ground still has a fair bit of upside on our list.
Fwiw; I'd be hoping we can try and sneak a second first round pick for Carlisle and then easily replacing him with a Michael Hartley/Mitch Brown/Jack Hutchins type in the third round for an immediate replacement and allowing a developing tall to do just that. Develop.
I'd absolutely be stoked to finish with a draft of;
1st - Darcy Parish
2nd - Kieran Collins/Sam Weideman
3rd - Luke Partington/Nick O'Kearney
4th - Mitch Brown/Michael Hartley
5th - Gach Nyuon/Andre Parella
6th - Aidan Johnson/Oleg Markov
- Thread starter
- #75
He should be on my WA list... I'll have to edit that.
Not in my top 75 players, I just rate the others greater than him. Being from Vic- I've only seen Glass-McCasker in the champs, so I can't really back up anything I saw from him. Stats don't mean much to me, it's about what you do with the ball in my opinion. But he played good enough to win the MVP so hard to complain.
Is he national draft material? Possibly, there isn't too much KPD depth after the first round. But with clubs likely to only take 2-4 picks, I think he'll probably slip to the rookie draft (but that's my view)
