Brownlow Guru speaks - 2013

[BrownlowGuru]

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.

I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 7 years). Here are my predictions for win and place, I'll supply some of the exotics (team, quinella, H2H) later.

Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Swan, Mitchell) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.

WIN
Ablett G (GC) 3.110
Selwood J (Geel) 4.935
Pendlebury S (Coll) 6.741
Swan D (Coll) 7.785
Mitchell S (Haw) 10.417
Dangerfield P (Adel) 55.893
Watson J (Ess) 57.128
Boak T (Pt A) 64.332
Jack K (Syd) 67.760
Cotchin T (Rich) 114.918
Griffen R (WB) 116.809
Hannebery D (Syd) 196.603
Liberatore T (WB) 328.369
McVeigh J (Syd) 355.073
Hodge L (Haw) 462.037
Montagna L (St K) 511.484
Roughead J (Haw) 525.763
All others > 1000

PLACE (top 3)
Ablett G (GC) 1.493
Selwood J (Geel) 1.873
Pendlebury S (Coll) 2.399
Swan D (Coll) 2.633
Mitchell S (Haw) 3.190
Watson J (Ess) 9.303
Dangerfield P (Adel) 9.880
Boak T (Pt A) 11.129
Jack K (Syd) 12.336
Griffen R (WB) 16.052
Cotchin T (Rich) 18.669
Hannebery D (Syd) 22.327
Liberatore T (WB) 37.480
McVeigh J (Syd) 41.368
Roughead J (Haw) 51.925
Hodge L (Haw) 53.827
Montagna L (St K) 54.626
All Others > 100

PLACE (top 5)
Ablett G (GC) 1.208
Selwood J (Geel) 1.367
Pendlebury S (Coll) 1.637
Swan D (Coll) 1.754
Mitchell S (Haw) 2.005
Watson J (Ess) 4.120
Dangerfield P (Adel) 4.296
Boak T (Pt A) 4.927
Jack K (Syd) 5.262
Griffen R (WB) 6.261
Cotchin T (Rich) 7.654
Hannebery D (Syd) 7.763
Liberatore T (WB) 12.872
McVeigh J (Syd) 13.875
Hodge L (Haw) 17.043
Roughead J (Haw) 17.950
Montagna L (St K) 18.308
Martin D (Rich) 31.028
Priddis M (WCE) 34.174
Sloane R (Adel) 52.066
Rockliff T (Bris) 73.330
Barlow M (Fre) 78.325
All others > 100

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Wow, Kieran Jack a lot lower than I would have anticipated.

Can't see Ablett losing after his 3 vote final round though.

 

[thetank]

Putting the house on Mitchell, based on your analysis.

 

[Blueboy3]

Love your work BG.

Can't wait for everyone to not read the post and tell you ablett at $3 is ridiculous.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Nice work

 

[matt_nicholls]

I reckon Fyfe and Barlow will poll well, but don't think either can win. Top 3 for one of them a chance pending on umpiring love.

 

[strategy]

i put out a thread naming Ablett to iwn Brownlow and Omera to win ( rising star ) a long long time ago

 

[stuziman]

Hey BU, do you not have Fyfe not included because of ineligibility?

I'd be interested to see where you have him either way.

 

[Schauermann]

I reckon Fyfe and Barlow will poll well, but don't think either can win. Top 3 for one of them a chance pending on umpiring love.

I am really anxious to see how our votes are split this year. Mundy polled very well last year when he finally got into form...

 

[Zerg]

i put out a thread naming Ablett to iwn Brownlow and Omera to win ( rising star ) a long long time ago

Talk about going out on a limb

 

[Righteo]

Talk about going out on a limb

We're in the presence of a true visionary here.

 

[Glass23]

Sounds like it's still a "midfielders' medal".

 

[Belnakor]

cleaned up a couple of years ago on a multi for teams top scoring, The guru is the only guy on BF who gets even remotely close to predicting the results.

 

[Super Hans]

i put out a thread naming Ablett to iwn Brownlow and Omera to win ( rising star ) a long long time ago

I'm calling it now, tomorrow will be Thursday.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

i put out a thread naming Ablett to iwn Brownlow and Omera to win ( rising star ) a long long time ago

Wow! You must have a gigantic penis

 

[DangerSloane]

i put out a thread naming Ablett to iwn Brownlow and Omera to win ( rising star ) a long long time ago

Ohhh geeee, big prediction champ.
You know you probably said it when Ablett was like 10 votes ahead of anyone else.
Oh I bet you predicted Hawthorn not to get the wooden spoon too...

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Hey BU, do you not have Fyfe not included because of ineligibility?

I'd be interested to see where you have him either way.

Yeah, this list excludes suspended players.

In a 'Most Votes' market, I have Fyfe at 42 for the win, and SJohnson at 88. They are 6.8 and 17 for top 3 respectively.

 

[Hawkinspired]

I thought there was going to be a huge chance on Griffin for top 5 (paying 5/1) but I'm second guessing myself now...

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Wow, Kieran Jack a lot lower than I would have anticipated.

Can't see Ablett losing after his 3 vote final round though.

Actually, after rnd 22 I had Selwood as leading my count, but the probability of Ablett getting 3 in the last round is quite high.

 

[TheTigerEffect]

I feel like making a big call. Zac Dawson will NOT win the Brownlow medal. Nor will he ever. Nor will he win the Coleman, Norm Smith. MVP, Coaches awards and none of the newspaper and radio stations awards. There we go. Massive call

 

[mHmmm]

I feel like making a big call. TheTigerEffect will NOT win the Brownlow medal. Nor will he ever. Nor will he win the Coleman, Norm Smith. MVP, Coaches awards and none of the newspaper and radio stations awards. Also he is extremely unlikely to win anything other than a wooden spoon in any from of sport in his entire life.There we go. Massive call

 

[mHmmm]

I feel like making a big call. TheTigerEffect will NOT win the Brownlow medal. Nor will he ever. Nor will he win the Coleman, Norm Smith. MVP, Coaches awards and none of the newspaper and radio stations awards. Also he is extremely unlikely to win anything other than a wooden spoon in any from of sport in his entire life.There we go. Massive call

 

[chunkylover53]

i put out a thread naming Ablett to iwn Brownlow and Omera to win ( rising star ) a long long time ago

y u do dis

 

[ablett]

A mate of placed a tri bet in June .

Roughead to win Coleman, Tick!
Ablett to win Brownlow, Big chance
Freo to win Flag, Big Chance
He put $150 on it to $15,000!

He also placed same bet bar Geelong instead of Freo to win the Flag which still a possibility, which returns $10,000 for the same outlay.

 

[Fadge]

A mate of placed a tri bet in June .

Roughead to win Coleman, Tick!
Ablett to win Brownlow, Big chance
Freo to win Flag, Big Chance
He put $150 on it to $15,000!

He also placed same bet bar Geelong instead of Freo to win the Flag which still a possibility, which returns $10,000 for the same outlay.

Does he tell you about his losing bets?