Brownlow Guru speaks - 2014

[BrownlowGuru]

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.

I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 8 years). Here are my predictions for win and place, I'll supply some of the exotics (team, quinella) later.

Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Gray, Pendlebury) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.

WIN
Selwood J (Geel) 4.420
Gray R (Pt A) 6.357
Kennedy J (Syd) 7.505
Pendlebury S (Coll) 8.788
Ablett G (GC) 8.930
Lewis J (Haw) 15.775
Cotchin T (Rich) 18.272
Priddis M (WCE) 20.612
Heppell D (Ess) 37.601
Franklin L (Syd) 41.190
Boak T (Pt A) 92.259
Jones N (Melb) 98.721
Prestia D (GC) 208.858
Gibbs B (Carl) 263.567
Beams D (Coll) 263.681
Ward C (GWS) 816.622
Thompson S (Adel) 994.079
All others > 1000

PLACE (top 3)
Selwood J (Geel) 1.889
Gray R (Pt A) 2.571
Kennedy J (Syd) 2.775
Ablett G (GC) 2.808
Pendlebury S (Coll) 3.286
Lewis J (Haw) 4.647
Cotchin T (Rich) 5.125
Priddis M (WCE) 5.688
Franklin L (Syd) 7.606
Heppell D (Ess) 9.571
Boak T (Pt A) 16.737
Jones N (Melb) 21.282
Prestia D (GC) 36.697
Beams D (Coll) 42.515
Gibbs B (Carl) 45.544
All Others > 100

PLACE (top 5)
Selwood J (Geel) 1.402
Ablett G (GC) 1.787
Gray R (Pt A) 1.795
Kennedy J (Syd) 1.852
Pendlebury S (Coll) 2.147
Lewis J (Haw) 2.660
Cotchin T (Rich) 2.940
Priddis M (WCE) 3.140
Franklin L (Syd) 3.491
Heppell D (Ess) 4.931
Boak T (Pt A) 7.194
Jones N (Melb) 9.800
Prestia D (GC) 15.009
Beams D (Coll) 15.736
Gibbs B (Carl) 16.929
Thompson S (Adel) 34.726
Ward C (GWS) 41.437
Barlow M (Fre) 60.598
Sloane R (Adel) 72.948
Mundy D (Fre) 75.712
Dangerfield P (Adel) 86.517
Tyson D (Melb) 93.487
Liberatore T (WB) 94.183
All Others > 100

 

[clivenator26]

Thoughts on Stephen Hill to lead Freo (Fyfe excluded), Sportsbet is paying $5 and I have him polling 15-17 votes ? Barlow, Mundy & Sandilands all rated higher chance.

 

[thebarry111]

Just wondering who are your picks for the quinella?

 

[Pinnell]

Just wondering who are your picks for the quinella?

I'm tipping the players he designated most likely to come first and second

 

[rawm]

Sorry for the pessimistic questions OP/others but:
1) How 'successful' have you been in the past 8 years (particularly the last 2-3 seasons)?
2) If this system is so successful, why aren't you living in a Cuban mansion with a pet Lion, seven servants and three Miss South America contestants for wives?

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Sorry for the pessimistic questions OP/others but:
1) How 'successful' have you been in the past 8 years (particularly the last 2-3 seasons)?
2) If this system is so successful, why aren't you living in a Cuban mansion with a pet Lion, seven servants and three Miss South America contestants for wives?

Search the brownlow guru posts and read for yourself

I'm not a betting person, but over a number of years he has been bloody good

It is why you see few people flaming him

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Kennedy and Pendlebury look the best value from those numbers

 

[Young Gun #6]

Would bet any amount of money that Ablett finishes top 3 and beats Pendlebury.

 

[thebarry111]

I'm tipping the players he designated most likely to come first and second

I'm just asking this as i have followed his posts over the other years and have agreed with a lot he has done. However there is no way that Pendleburry (wont crack 20 votes) and Kennedy will beat Ablett.

 

[WWSD]

I reckon the top 5 will be: Ablett, Boak, Selwood, Kennedy and Lewis.

 

[Sttew]

I reckon the top 5 will be: Ablett, Boak, Selwood, Kennedy and Lewis.

I reckon Gray will pinch votes off Boak. So I'd swap Heppell for Boak.

 

[WWSD]

I reckon Gray will pinch votes off Boak. So I'd swap Heppell for Boak.

Boak and Gray will be hard to split. Both been very good this year.

Not sure if Essendon have won enough games for Heppell to finish in the top 5 in the Brownlow. He might finish in the top 10.

 

[Sttew]

Boak and Gray will be hard to split. Both been very good this year.

Not sure if Essendon have won enough games for Heppell to finish in the top 5 in the Brownlow. He might finish in the top 10.

Blonde dreadlocks are guaranteed to have put him in limelight, but he is not in GAJ's class (winning Brownlow in a bottom team), so point taken.

 

[Sttew]

Just checked Brownlow Guru's predictions from 2009 to 2013 - he's got it right every year except 2009 (when he had Swan favorite over GAJ)

 

[E Shed]

What are the odds for Fyfe to poll top 3?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I reckon the top 5 will be: Ablett, Boak, Selwood, Kennedy and Lewis.

Swap Lewis with Franklin and you have my top 5, although not in that order.

Ablett
Selwood
kennedy
Franklin
Boak

Just outside: Gray & Lewis

 

[Sttew]

The fact 8 medals have been minted suggests this could be a rare multiple winner 2014 Brownlow

 

[WWSD]

Swap Lewis with Franklin and you have my top 5, although not in that order.

Ablett
Selwood
kennedy
Franklin
Boak

Just outside: Gray & Lewis

Players like Parker and Kennedy will take votes off Franklin, because there's been a number of games in which they could easily poll the three votes, whereas Lewis has been head and shoulders Hawthorn's best player this year in the games that we've won.

I reckon Josh Kennedy will win it.

 

[mattis117]

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.

I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 8 years). Here are my predictions for win and place, I'll supply some of the exotics (team, quinella) later.

Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Gray, Pendlebury) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.

WIN
Selwood J (Geel) 4.420
Gray R (Pt A) 6.357
Kennedy J (Syd) 7.505
Pendlebury S (Coll) 8.788
Ablett G (GC) 8.930
Lewis J (Haw) 15.775
Cotchin T (Rich) 18.272
Priddis M (WCE) 20.612
Heppell D (Ess) 37.601
Franklin L (Syd) 41.190
Boak T (Pt A) 92.259
Jones N (Melb) 98.721
Prestia D (GC) 208.858
Gibbs B (Carl) 263.567
Beams D (Coll) 263.681
Ward C (GWS) 816.622
Thompson S (Adel) 994.079
All others > 1000

PLACE (top 3)
Selwood J (Geel) 1.889
Gray R (Pt A) 2.571
Kennedy J (Syd) 2.775
Ablett G (GC) 2.808
Pendlebury S (Coll) 3.286
Lewis J (Haw) 4.647
Cotchin T (Rich) 5.125
Priddis M (WCE) 5.688
Franklin L (Syd) 7.606
Heppell D (Ess) 9.571
Boak T (Pt A) 16.737
Jones N (Melb) 21.282
Prestia D (GC) 36.697
Beams D (Coll) 42.515
Gibbs B (Carl) 45.544
All Others > 100

PLACE (top 5)
Selwood J (Geel) 1.402
Ablett G (GC) 1.787
Gray R (Pt A) 1.795
Kennedy J (Syd) 1.852
Pendlebury S (Coll) 2.147
Lewis J (Haw) 2.660
Cotchin T (Rich) 2.940
Priddis M (WCE) 3.140
Franklin L (Syd) 3.491
Heppell D (Ess) 4.931
Boak T (Pt A) 7.194
Jones N (Melb) 9.800
Prestia D (GC) 15.009
Beams D (Coll) 15.736
Gibbs B (Carl) 16.929
Thompson S (Adel) 34.726
Ward C (GWS) 41.437
Barlow M (Fre) 60.598
Sloane R (Adel) 72.948
Mundy D (Fre) 75.712
Dangerfield P (Adel) 86.517
Tyson D (Melb) 93.487
Liberatore T (WB) 94.183
All Others > 100

Do you have a list that includes ineligible players? Interested to see where Fyfe would fit in.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The thing about Franklin is, he's surrounded by good players and a few of his teammates like Parker and Kennedy will take votes off him, whereas Lewis had been head and shoulders Hawthorn's best player this year.

Not in the games he has been the standout. He has 6 games where he will get the 3 votes. That is 18 straight off the bat, and he'll get another couple in the match Parker will get the 3. People forget how good Buddy was during the period he went mental. He will get 15 votes in 5 weeks!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I reckon Josh Kennedy will win it.

His injury will cost him, would have loved it as I got him before the season! I went each way though so a place I'm winning something, even then I recon Franklin could beat him for a place!

 

[thebarry111]

The fact 8 medals have been minted suggests this could be a rare multiple winner 2014 Brownlow

The 8 medals doesn't really mean anything. You had a number of interstate teams which looked a chance to play off in the Grand final, hence the need for extra medals.

 

[Young Gun #6]

Not in the games he has been the standout. He has 6 games where he will get the 3 votes. That is 18 straight off the bat, and he'll get another couple in the match Parker will get the 3. People forget how good Buddy was during the period he went mental. He will get 15 votes in 5 weeks!

Where are these 6 guarnteed best on's coming from... i have 3 guarnteed best on's vs GWS, Port and Saints.

 

[illavitar]

God bless you Guru Josh

 

[bato]

Why isn't Selwood/Kennedy/Gray available as a trifecta on Sportsbet?