Analysis Cap Spend and Loose Change

[Old Spice]

Here's an exercise for the serious posters.

Open an excel spreadsheet and in column A place the names our current senior players. In column B place what you think they might earn. At the bottom of column B tally the total spend.

****

In 2015, according to the player CBA, the salary cap is $9,921,000 and the ASA (marketing allowance) is $992,000. The total of the Salary Cap and ASA for 2015 is therefore $10,913,000.

Now let's imagine we are only spending 95% of the salary cap this year in order to spend 105% of the salary cap in 2016. (Note here that the flexible cap provisions do not include ASA allowance).

If we spend 95% of the cap in 2015, that means we can only spend $10,416,950 ($9,424,950 salary cap plus $992,000 ASA) in 2015 and if we spend 105% in 2016 that means $11,241,00 ($10,219,00 salary cap plus $1,022,00).

I'm interested to see what people come up with in terms of money we have to spend for players at the end of the season.

 

[Matt_352]

Here's an exercise for the serious posters.

Open an excel spreadsheet and in column A place the names our current senior players. In column B place what you think they might earn. At the bottom of column B tally the total spend.

****

In 2015, according to the player CBA, the salary cap is $9,921,000 and the ASA (marketing allowance) is $992,000. The total of the Salary Cap and ASA for 2015 is therefore $10,913,000.

Now let's imagine we are only spending 95% of the salary cap this year in order to spend 105% of the salary cap in 2016. (Note here that the flexible cap provisions do not include ASA allowance).

If we spend 95% of the cap in 2015, that means we can only spend $10,416,950 ($9,424,950 salary cap plus $992,000 ASA) in 2015 and if we spend 105% in 2016 that means $11,241,00 ($10,219,00 salary cap plus $1,022,00).

I'm interested to see what people come up with in terms of money we have to spend for players at the end of the season.

What you need to take into consideration is players traded out, delisted. Ie Pretty sure Young, Armstong, Keeffe and Thomas are out of a job for starters.

 

[jmac70]

Here's an exercise for the serious posters.

Open an excel spreadsheet and in column A place the names our current senior players. In column B place what you think they might earn. At the bottom of column B tally the total spend.

****

In 2015, according to the player CBA, the salary cap is $9,921,000 and the ASA (marketing allowance) is $992,000. The total of the Salary Cap and ASA for 2015 is therefore $10,913,000.

Now let's imagine we are only spending 95% of the salary cap this year in order to spend 105% of the salary cap in 2016. (Note here that the flexible cap provisions do not include ASA allowance).

If we spend 95% of the cap in 2015, that means we can only spend $10,416,950 ($9,424,950 salary cap plus $992,000 ASA) in 2015 and if we spend 105% in 2016 that means $11,241,00 ($10,219,00 salary cap plus $1,022,00).

I'm interested to see what people come up with in terms of money we have to spend for players at the end of the season.

That rules me out.

 

[Old Spice]

What you need to take into consideration is players traded out, delisted. Ie Pretty sure Young, Armstong, Keeffe and Thomas are out of a job for starters.

Of course you do. I've got a spreadsheet which won't upload here but try it out and you'll soon see how, even despite these players being excised, we have too many middle rung players who should be squeezed out for upgrade acquisitions. Try the exercise and get back to me.

 

[MAGPIE2013]

That rules me out.

But but but.... you have sources

 

[jmac70]

But but but.... you have sources

My sauces tell me it is between $0 and $2 million.

 

[Lefthanded]

Great idea even if I am biased as was planning on starting a similar thread. So far I've only gotten as far as going through the AFLPA and working out what the first and second year players are on. Still to fill out the rest. I had been thinking about posting that as a guide but will be interested to see what others thoughts are. Lots of complexities to factor in eg rookies not counted towards cap except their match payments when filling in for LTI or half of nominated rookies like Frost. Further complicated by having to think about what they might have signed for when they signed, front ending, back ending etc but my first draft will probably just be to get a general idea.

 

[MAGPIE2013]

My sauces tell me it is between $0 and $2 million.

are your sauces the geniuses behind the idea of paying daisy 700k a season

 

[Matt_352]

Of course you do. I've got a spreadsheet which won't upload here but try it out and you'll soon see how, even despite these players being excised, we have too many middle rung players who should be squeezed out for upgrade acquisitions. Try the exercise and get back to me.

Will do

 

[jmac70]

are your sauces the geniuses behind the idea of paying daisy 700k a season

I will ask Smelly Pete down the pub tonight.

 

[Matt_352]

How many middle rund players would a good amount to have on a list?

 

[Old Spice]

Great idea even if I am biased as was planning on starting a similar thread. So far I've only gotten as far as going through the AFLPA and working out what the first and second year players are on. Still to fill out the rest. I had been thinking about posting that as a guide but will be interested to see what others thoughts are. Lots of complexities to factor in eg rookies not counted towards cap except their match payments when filling in for LTI or half of nominated rookies like Frost. Further complicated by having to think about what they might have signed for when they signed, front ending, back ending etc but my first draft will probably just be to get a general idea.

The easiest thing to nut out is the 1st/2nd year player wages and rookie wages.

The 2012-2016 CBA is here. http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/CBA-2012-2016-FINAL.pdf

What is interesting here is that someone like Dwyer who played a heap of games in 2014 probably earned 165k in his 2nd year while Oxley as an upgraded rookie probably earned 69k in his 3rd year while Kennedy probably got 134k. So much depends on match payments.

 

[gtrain23]

The easiest thing to nut out is the 1st/2nd year player wages and rookie wages.

The 2012-2016 CBA is here. http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/CBA-2012-2016-FINAL.pdf

What is interesting here is that someone like Dwyer who played a heap of games in 2014 probably earned 165k in his 2nd year while Oxley as an upgraded rookie probably earned 69k in his 3rd year while Kennedy probably got 134k. So much depends on match payments.

cant believe i just downloaded that. Crap

 

[Old Spice]

Via the CBA this is what I nutted as wages for certain players in 2015.

Langdon: $159,120
Marsh: $85,890
Scharenberg: $93,870
Freeman: $93,870
Oxley: $69,325
Gault: $71,405
Goodyear: $61,610

Depending on games played it's likely to be in the range of the following for 1st year players:

Moore: $75,000
DeGoey: $80,000
Maynard: $70,000

The rest of the cap is guesswork but you will learn pretty soon when you do it that so much space is taken up by a rash of bog ordinary players. I think we need a better mix of high-end and developing players.

 

[Lefthanded]

Via the CBA this is what I nutted as wages for certain players in 2015.

Langdon: $159,120
Marsh: $85,890
Scharenberg: $93,870
Freeman: $93,870
Oxley: $69,325
Gault: $71,405
Goodyear: $61,610

Depending on games played it's likely to be in the range of the following for 1st year players:

Moore: $75,000
DeGoey: $80,000
Maynard: $70,000

The rest of the cap is guesswork but you will learn pretty soon when you do it that so much space is taken up by a rash of bog ordinary players. I think we need a better mix of high-end and developing players.

Sorry but the only one of those that I agree on is Goodyear. Shazza & Freeman figure of $93,870 is only for first round draft picks who played 16+ senior matches the previous year. I'd thus have this pair on a base of 72,970 + $3,745 for any senior matches this year.

Not sure where you got your Langdon figure, I have him as base of 80,815 + $5075 per match so could be as much as $192,465 without finals (which if we make finals he would get paid extra but it would be outside the cap (I believe).

Marsh I have as base of $62,695 + $3,745 for any senior matches.

Oxley & Gault I wouldn't have thought come under the 1st and 2nd year players given they've been on the list longer than that but I am not sure of this and am willing to concede that it might be based on when they were promoted to senior list for Oxley but given Gault was senior list and then got demoted to rookie I would think he'd be outside cap.

Moore & De Goey I have on a base of $71,515 + $3,500 per match (De Goey also got some bonus for being top 5 but that's outside cap.

Maynard I have as $65,000 + $3,500 per match.

All of my calculations are based on pages 64-67 of CBA agreement.

 

[Scodog10]

Personally this task is an impossibility because of front and backending (still fun to speculate on though). On a side note I would be shocked if we were only paying 95% in 2015.

My best guess is that many would raise their eyes at the amounts some of our players are earning in 2015.

 

[shizzle]

My best guess is that many would raise their eyes at the amounts some of our players are earning in 2015.

Players like White, Adams, Young, Varcoe, Greenwood, Reid and Armstrong?

 

[Lefthanded]

Here's an exercise for the serious posters.

Open an excel spreadsheet and in column A place the names our current senior players. In column B place what you think they might earn. At the bottom of column B tally the total spend.

****

In 2015, according to the player CBA, the salary cap is $9,921,000 and the ASA (marketing allowance) is $992,000. The total of the Salary Cap and ASA for 2015 is therefore $10,913,000.

Now let's imagine we are only spending 95% of the salary cap this year in order to spend 105% of the salary cap in 2016. (Note here that the flexible cap provisions do not include ASA allowance).

If we spend 95% of the cap in 2015, that means we can only spend $10,416,950 ($9,424,950 salary cap plus $992,000 ASA) in 2015 and if we spend 105% in 2016 that means $11,241,00 ($10,219,00 salary cap plus $1,022,00).

I'm interested to see what people come up with in terms of money we have to spend for players at the end of the season.

Agree with the bolded but per http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-06-05/salary-cap-safeguards-for-players-confirmed it has subsequently increased to 10,071,000

 

[Scodog10]

Players like White, Adams, Young, Varcoe, Greenwood, Reid and Armstrong?

I'd go yes, no, yes, yes, yes, no and no.

Based on when they joined the club I'd guess that the underlined were back ended deals, the bold front ended, Reid's back ended which really worries me and the two in italics on what you'd expect.

I also think Pendles, Swan and Cloke's wages would have been back ended with the veterans list playing a part. In the case of Cloke if we're paying 95% of the cap and have back ended his deal a priority would be to bring forward some of those funds, IMO.

It's all guesswork though and just assuming we have an abundance of room because we lost players is folly because we overpaid to bring the likes of Varcoe, Greenwood and White in. Greenwood for instance I'd expect to be on at least 600k this year considering the structure of our list and the fact that North just couldn't compete with what we offered after chasing their FA's.

 

[4#Didak#4]

Here's an exercise for the serious posters.

Open an excel spreadsheet and in column A place the names our current senior players. In column B place what you think they might earn. At the bottom of column B tally the total spend.

****

In 2015, according to the player CBA, the salary cap is $9,921,000 and the ASA (marketing allowance) is $992,000. The total of the Salary Cap and ASA for 2015 is therefore $10,913,000.

Now let's imagine we are only spending 95% of the salary cap this year in order to spend 105% of the salary cap in 2016. (Note here that the flexible cap provisions do not include ASA allowance).

If we spend 95% of the cap in 2015, that means we can only spend $10,416,950 ($9,424,950 salary cap plus $992,000 ASA) in 2015 and if we spend 105% in 2016 that means $11,241,00 ($10,219,00 salary cap plus $1,022,00).

I'm interested to see what people come up with in terms of money we have to spend for players at the end of the season.

There is one massive variable which will ensure no one will get anywhere near a right answer. That is front & back ended contracts. I think I could get pretty close to what each player earns per year - on average. But knowing when they earn that money over the course of the contract is information that is not possible to know. This is where the real art in salary cap management is - timing.

For instance Luke Ball I know was paid most of his contract upfront in his first year. After that he had virtually no impact on our salary cap which allowed us room to sign up some premiership stars whose price suddenly inflated. I would suspect we will have done the same with some recruits like Varcoe & Greenwood as we would have had a lot of spare cap with all our departures and if you don't use it you lose it. This is unless we had some big contracts that were back ended and fell due this year in which case we would back end these guys. So many variables in timing!

My reading of the tea leaves is that we are in a good space regarding future cap and big back ended contracts are not too much of an issue. We are signing a number of 3 year deals for some of the young guys and my guess is they will be front loaded to free space going forward for potential big name recruits and resigning our guns like Pendles and Cloke.

 

[Lefthanded]

Okay, attached in pdf (so no worries with viruses & because I don't think you can upload .xlsx) is my first stab at this with below notes:

Payments to rookies don't count even when on senior list to replace LTI per page 69 - 4g.
clause 10b(x) (page 19) says half of Frost salary- as nominated rookie counts towards cap
page references can be a little confusing as pdf is 111 pages but pages numbered 1 to 110 with first page not counted - where possible use numbering in document
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-22/1m-club-shrinks-again gives an indication of ranges, noting it includes ASA whilst my pdf doesn't
guys under 50 games I've assumed will be on less money
KPPs generally get more
for simplicity I've assumed most players get same match payment & I've used the figure from Langdon (which came from CBA)
those due for new contract may be on less than those recently signed eg Greenwood vs Sidebottom
ASA probably split b/w likes of Pendles, Swan, Cloke, Elliott, Reid and I haven't included it in attached

I've ignored front & back ending but given only half of Frost's salary counts whilst nominated rookie I'd have him massively front ended if allowed
I would not front end anyone approaching free agency as want them restricted free agent where possible
Attached is a guide for this year & there would be many changes for next year - both in terms of delistings, signings, draftees and guys like Shazza & Freeman who will no longer be on salary governed by CBA

My figures have us on about 96.3% of TPP for this year (I haven't quite gone the 95%).

Constructive feedback welcome!

 

[Maggie5]

Okay, attached in pdf (so no worries with viruses & because I don't think you can upload .xlsx) is my first stab at this with below notes:

Payments to rookies don't count even when on senior list to replace LTI per page 69 - 4g.
clause 10b(x) (page 19) says half of Frost salary- as nominated rookie counts towards cap
page references can be a little confusing as pdf is 111 pages but pages numbered 1 to 110 with first page not counted - where possible use numbering in document
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-22/1m-club-shrinks-again gives an indication of ranges, noting it includes ASA whilst my pdf doesn't
guys under 50 games I've assumed will be on less money
KPPs generally get more
for simplicity I've assumed most players get same match payment & I've used the figure from Langdon (which came from CBA)
those due for new contract may be on less than those recently signed eg Greenwood vs Sidebottom
ASA probably split b/w likes of Pendles, Swan, Cloke, Elliott, Reid and I haven't included it in attached

I've ignored front & back ending but given only half of Frost's salary counts whilst nominated rookie I'd have him massively front ended if allowed
I would not front end anyone approaching free agency as want them restricted free agent where possible
Attached is a guide for this year & there would be many changes for next year - both in terms of delistings, signings, draftees and guys like Shazza & Freeman who will no longer be on salary governed by CBA

My figures have us on about 96.3% of TPP for this year (I haven't quite gone the 95%).

Constructive feedback welcome!

Great work, so much easier when someone has done it.
Just a question are you saying that if the senior players are out injured they don't get match payments?
No Workers comp? Like Reid where the increase is only $20K?

 

[Lefthanded]

Great work, so much easier when someone has done it.
Just a question are you saying that if the senior players are out injured they don't get match payments?
No Workers comp? Like Reid where the increase is only $20K?

to me a match payment is for playing AFL matches - like a bonus or incentive. Someone like Reid is rewarded for his status in the game - KPP & AA with a high base. I confess I haven't read all 111 pages of CBA so their may be provision for workers comp - I've just tried to limit things to what I know impacts the cap.

 

[Obese Arachnid]

I will ask Smelly Pete down the pub tonight.

Smelly Pete, Is he related to Three Fingered Pete?
Used to hang around with Sir Wilfred Death, Guy de Glastonbury, Friar Bellows, Jack Large & Sean the Irish Bastard.

 

[tommyv49]

Surely Varcoe wouldn't be in out top 8 paid players?