Best AFL team. You can't compare eras with eras. Different recruitment / salary rules and comps.
News Cats set new League record
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SJ
Premium Platinum
Now reset the bar at 123-27.
Senatorguesty
Cancelled
Senatorguesty
Cancelled
Yep! Only need to win another... 22 straight?
Yep.
Which would be the premiership.
Of course I don't think it will happen but if I said 140-32 it might be implied that we lose the grand final. Which won't happen!
Not to mention the fact that back then majority of footy players had full time jobs unlike the AFL players of today who spend all their time in either rehab or training.
Certainly the best AFL team - and its a record I think will be hard to beat in another 50 years time!!
- Aug 2, 2012
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Cant believe the Cats are not currently setting new records for 200 consecutive games for Geelong. I guess it comes down to 2004>2012. I suspect the club record will be set once we are 200 games pass the horrible 2006 season.
RR I am interested in how many wins the Cats have from the last 200 games?
RR I am interested in how many wins the Cats have from the last 200 games?
- Aug 2, 2012
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SJ
Premium Platinum
We are currently 147-1-52 from the past 200.
Our best is 148-1-51 which first happened Round 3 2004 to Round 6 2012 (and again six times since).
The record is 156-4-40 by Collingwood Round 4 1927 to Round 4 1937.
ousitgarn
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VFL/AFL Premiership Teams statistically superior to Geelong in chronological order:
Fitzroy 1898-1905
4 premierships in 8 years
2 times runner-up
3 consecutive GF appearances (and this twice), twice back-to-back premiers
107 W/L 41 /D 2 = win percentage of 71.33% over 8 years
7664 F/A 5371 = F/A percentage of 142.69% over 8 years
Carlton 1906-1915
5 premierships in 10 years
2 times runner-up
5 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back premiers, once back-to-back premiers
139 W/L 42 /D 6 = win percentage of 74.33% over 10 years
12555 F/A 8991 = F/A percentage of 139.64% over 10 years
Collingwood 1927-1936
6 premierships in 10 years (*1930 they lost but challenged for a replay under rule system, won the replay)
0 times runner-up
4 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back-to-back* premiers, once back-to-back premiers
154 W/L 41 /D 4 = win percentage of 77.39% over 10 years
19116 F/A 14957 = F/A percentage of 127.81% over 10 years
Melbourne 1955-1964
6 premierships in 10 years
1 times runner-up
6 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back premiers, once back-to-back premiers
(they nearly won 6 flags in a row)
152 W/L 45 /D 3 = win percentage of 76% over 10 years
17139 F/A 12342 = F/A percentage of 138.87% over 10 years
Richmond 1967-1974
4 premierships in 8 years
1 times runner-up
3 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back premiers
135 W/L 49 /D 1 = win percentage of 72.97% over 8 years
19392 F/A 15882 = F/A percentage of 122.1% over 8 years
Hawthorn 1983-1991
5 premierships in 9 years
3 times runner-up
7 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back premiers
170 W/L 54 /D 1 = win percentage of 75.55% over 9 years
26862 F/A 19919 = F/A percentage of 134.86% over 9 years
AFL Premiership Teams arguably statistically superior to or on par with Geelong:
Brisbane 2001-2003
3 premierships in 4 years
1 times runner-up
4 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back premiers
57 W/L 18 /D 1 = win percentage of 75% over 3 years
8422 F/A 6400 = F/A percentage of 131.59% over 3 years
Including 2004:
75 W/L 25 /D 1 = win percentage of 74.26% over 4 years
11175 F/A 8440 = F/A percentage of 132.4% over 4 years
Overview of Geelong:
Geelong 2007-2011
3 premierships in 5 years
1 times runner-up
3 consecutive GF appearances
105 W/L 20 = win percentage of 84% over 5 years
14217 F/A 9545 = F/A percentage of 148.95% over 5 years
Including 2012 & 2013 so far:
125 W/L 28 = win percentage of 81.7% over 6-7 years
16954 F/A 11927 = F/A percentage of 142.15% over 6-7 years
Fitzroy 1898-1905
4 premierships in 8 years
2 times runner-up
3 consecutive GF appearances (and this twice), twice back-to-back premiers
107 W/L 41 /D 2 = win percentage of 71.33% over 8 years
7664 F/A 5371 = F/A percentage of 142.69% over 8 years
Carlton 1906-1915
5 premierships in 10 years
2 times runner-up
5 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back premiers, once back-to-back premiers
139 W/L 42 /D 6 = win percentage of 74.33% over 10 years
12555 F/A 8991 = F/A percentage of 139.64% over 10 years
Collingwood 1927-1936
6 premierships in 10 years (*1930 they lost but challenged for a replay under rule system, won the replay)
0 times runner-up
4 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back-to-back* premiers, once back-to-back premiers
154 W/L 41 /D 4 = win percentage of 77.39% over 10 years
19116 F/A 14957 = F/A percentage of 127.81% over 10 years
Melbourne 1955-1964
6 premierships in 10 years
1 times runner-up
6 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back premiers, once back-to-back premiers
(they nearly won 6 flags in a row)
152 W/L 45 /D 3 = win percentage of 76% over 10 years
17139 F/A 12342 = F/A percentage of 138.87% over 10 years
Richmond 1967-1974
4 premierships in 8 years
1 times runner-up
3 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back premiers
135 W/L 49 /D 1 = win percentage of 72.97% over 8 years
19392 F/A 15882 = F/A percentage of 122.1% over 8 years
Hawthorn 1983-1991
5 premierships in 9 years
3 times runner-up
7 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back premiers
170 W/L 54 /D 1 = win percentage of 75.55% over 9 years
26862 F/A 19919 = F/A percentage of 134.86% over 9 years
AFL Premiership Teams arguably statistically superior to or on par with Geelong:
Brisbane 2001-2003
3 premierships in 4 years
1 times runner-up
4 consecutive GF appearances, once back-to-back-to-back premiers
57 W/L 18 /D 1 = win percentage of 75% over 3 years
8422 F/A 6400 = F/A percentage of 131.59% over 3 years
Including 2004:
75 W/L 25 /D 1 = win percentage of 74.26% over 4 years
11175 F/A 8440 = F/A percentage of 132.4% over 4 years
Overview of Geelong:
Geelong 2007-2011
3 premierships in 5 years
1 times runner-up
3 consecutive GF appearances
105 W/L 20 = win percentage of 84% over 5 years
14217 F/A 9545 = F/A percentage of 148.95% over 5 years
Including 2012 & 2013 so far:
125 W/L 28 = win percentage of 81.7% over 6-7 years
16954 F/A 11927 = F/A percentage of 142.15% over 6-7 years
ousitgarn
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Some will argue that Geelong's H&A dominance and win percentage already puts them on par with Brisbane, but for the sake of the argument, I will assert that Geelong really need 1 more premiership to allow their win percentage to become a factor in the claim that they are on par with or superior to Brisbane. Back-to-back-to-back is hard to argue with.
So in order to be deemed superior to Fitzroy, Richmond and Brisbane, Geelong needs to win another premiership in either 2013 or 2014, while at the same time maintaining a win percentage above 75% and F/A percentage above 143%. Although it must be said that because Geelong still didn't win back-to-back, Fitzroy and Richmond are still ahead of Geelong unless they win the premiership in 2013 (if 4 in 7 is better than 4 in 8).
That still leaves Carlton and Hawthorn as the next two teams to be overcome. Carlton won 5 in 10 and won 3 consecutive premierships, then 2 consecutive premierships. Geelong would need at least 2 more, and these back-to-back to be close to equalling Carlton's efforts. If Geelong were to win 2 more premierships in the period 2013-15 this would equal either 5 flags in 8 years or 5 in 9. Thus it could be argued to be superior to Carlton's era statistically.
Likewise, if you look at Hawthorn during their period of dominance, 7 consecutive GF appearances means that I would argue the only way to definitively top that effort would be to win 5 flags in 8 years. 5 flags in 9 years only equals their record in terms of flags, then it is debatable what is to be more highly valued - consecutive GF appearances/runner-up years or win percentage over the same period. 5 in 9 would also still leave Collingwood and Melbourne ahead of Geelong. Even though Collingwood won their 4th consecutive premiership after losing it first then replaying for the win, it could be argued that the different rule system was in at least some sense similar to the second chance teams now get if they lose a qualifying final. In any case it is difficult to argue with 3 consecutive flags, let alone 4.
This leaves Melbourne, with 6 consecutive GF appearances and almost 6 straight flags, arguably the best effort of any VFL/AFL team so far. In order for Geelong to be deemed superior to both the Collingwood and Melbourne teams they would need to win 6 flags in 9 years. This would mean 3 consecutive premierships from 2013-15. Still, I would argue that the only way to definitively top both Melbourne and Collingwood, would be for Geelong to win 7 flags in 10 years. This would mean they would have to win 4 flags in a row from 2013-2016. Neither scenario is likely (to put it mildly).
Fact is, most opposition supporters won't think that Geelong is definitively better until they are statistically better. This means not only win percentage but number of flags won. It is silly to assert Geelong are the best based on play style or that the current era is tougher and better skilled than ever before. These arguments may hold some truth, but they can't compete with the statistics that can be thrown up against them, because you won't win a debate about playing style or eras with someone who is insisting on statistical superiority.
It is for this reason that I think it is best not to assert that Geelong is the 'greatest team of all' (we as supporters believe this regardless), at most I would think no one would begrudge us the moniker of 'statistically the greatest AFL team thus far', just not of the VFL/AFL, or of all time. Not to mention I haven't included WAFL/SANFL/pre-VFL(VFA) statistics.
So in order to be deemed superior to Fitzroy, Richmond and Brisbane, Geelong needs to win another premiership in either 2013 or 2014, while at the same time maintaining a win percentage above 75% and F/A percentage above 143%. Although it must be said that because Geelong still didn't win back-to-back, Fitzroy and Richmond are still ahead of Geelong unless they win the premiership in 2013 (if 4 in 7 is better than 4 in 8).
That still leaves Carlton and Hawthorn as the next two teams to be overcome. Carlton won 5 in 10 and won 3 consecutive premierships, then 2 consecutive premierships. Geelong would need at least 2 more, and these back-to-back to be close to equalling Carlton's efforts. If Geelong were to win 2 more premierships in the period 2013-15 this would equal either 5 flags in 8 years or 5 in 9. Thus it could be argued to be superior to Carlton's era statistically.
Likewise, if you look at Hawthorn during their period of dominance, 7 consecutive GF appearances means that I would argue the only way to definitively top that effort would be to win 5 flags in 8 years. 5 flags in 9 years only equals their record in terms of flags, then it is debatable what is to be more highly valued - consecutive GF appearances/runner-up years or win percentage over the same period. 5 in 9 would also still leave Collingwood and Melbourne ahead of Geelong. Even though Collingwood won their 4th consecutive premiership after losing it first then replaying for the win, it could be argued that the different rule system was in at least some sense similar to the second chance teams now get if they lose a qualifying final. In any case it is difficult to argue with 3 consecutive flags, let alone 4.
This leaves Melbourne, with 6 consecutive GF appearances and almost 6 straight flags, arguably the best effort of any VFL/AFL team so far. In order for Geelong to be deemed superior to both the Collingwood and Melbourne teams they would need to win 6 flags in 9 years. This would mean 3 consecutive premierships from 2013-15. Still, I would argue that the only way to definitively top both Melbourne and Collingwood, would be for Geelong to win 7 flags in 10 years. This would mean they would have to win 4 flags in a row from 2013-2016. Neither scenario is likely (to put it mildly).
Fact is, most opposition supporters won't think that Geelong is definitively better until they are statistically better. This means not only win percentage but number of flags won. It is silly to assert Geelong are the best based on play style or that the current era is tougher and better skilled than ever before. These arguments may hold some truth, but they can't compete with the statistics that can be thrown up against them, because you won't win a debate about playing style or eras with someone who is insisting on statistical superiority.
It is for this reason that I think it is best not to assert that Geelong is the 'greatest team of all' (we as supporters believe this regardless), at most I would think no one would begrudge us the moniker of 'statistically the greatest AFL team thus far', just not of the VFL/AFL, or of all time. Not to mention I haven't included WAFL/SANFL/pre-VFL(VFA) statistics.
ousitgarn
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More specific statistics regarding the benchmark teams and a comparison with Geelong
Collingwood 1927-1930 (including finals):
1927 (17 W/L 3) (1698 F/A 1096) Premiership
1928 (17 W/L 3 /D 1) (1766 F/A 1333) Premiership
1929 (19 W/L 1) (2058 F/A 1290) Premiership
1930 (17 W/L 4) (2190 F/A 1590) Premiership*
Totals:
4 Premierships
70 W/L 11 = win percentage of 86.42% over 4 years
7712 F/A 5309 = F/A percentage of 145.26% over 4 years
Melbourne 1955-1960 (including finals):
1955 (17 W/L 3) (1679 F/A 1117) Premiership
1956 (18 W/L 2) (1630 F/A 1091) Premiership
1957 (14 W/L 6 /D 1) (1894 F/A 1343) Premiership
1958 (16 W/L 4) (1750 F/A 1415) Runner-up
1959 (15 W/L 4 /D 1) (1927 F/A 1328) Premiership
1960 (16 W/L 4) (1619 F/A 1071) Premiership
Totals:
5 Premierships
96 W/L 23 /D 2 = win percentage of 79.34% over 6 years
10499 F/A 7365 = F/A percentage of 142.55% over 6 years
Hawthorn 1983-1989 (including finals):
1983 (18 W/L 7) (3030 F/A 2306) Premiership
1984 (19 W/L 6) (3040 F/A 2371) Runner-up
1985 (17 W/L 8 /D 1) (3065 F/A 2457) Runner-up
1986 (20 W/L 5) (3002 F/A 2140) Premiership
1987 (19 W/L 7) (3153 F/A 2210) Runner-up
1988 (21 W/L 3) (3009 F/A 2063) Premiership
1989 (21 W/L 3) (2934 F/A 1962) Premiership
Totals:
4 Premierships
135 W/L 39 /D 1 = win percentage of 77.59% over 7 years
21233 F/A 15509 = F/A percentage of 136.91% over 7 years
Geelong 2007-2013 (including finals):
2007 (21 W/L 4) (2953 F/A 1845) Premiership
2008 (23 W/L 2) (2963 F/A 1881) Runner-up
2009 (21 W/L 4) (2608 F/A 2012) Premiership
2010 (18 W/L 7) (2811 F/A 1971) Finals
2011 (22 W/L 3) (2882 F/A 1836) Premiership
2012 (16 W/L 8) (2289 F/A 1982) Finals
2013 (4 W/L 0) (448 F/A 400) H&A
Totals:
3 Premierships
125 W/L 28 = win percentage of 81.7% over 6-7 years
16954 F/A 11927 = F/A percentage of 142.15% over 6-7 years
Collingwood 1927-1930 (including finals):
1927 (17 W/L 3) (1698 F/A 1096) Premiership
1928 (17 W/L 3 /D 1) (1766 F/A 1333) Premiership
1929 (19 W/L 1) (2058 F/A 1290) Premiership
1930 (17 W/L 4) (2190 F/A 1590) Premiership*
Totals:
4 Premierships
70 W/L 11 = win percentage of 86.42% over 4 years
7712 F/A 5309 = F/A percentage of 145.26% over 4 years
Melbourne 1955-1960 (including finals):
1955 (17 W/L 3) (1679 F/A 1117) Premiership
1956 (18 W/L 2) (1630 F/A 1091) Premiership
1957 (14 W/L 6 /D 1) (1894 F/A 1343) Premiership
1958 (16 W/L 4) (1750 F/A 1415) Runner-up
1959 (15 W/L 4 /D 1) (1927 F/A 1328) Premiership
1960 (16 W/L 4) (1619 F/A 1071) Premiership
Totals:
5 Premierships
96 W/L 23 /D 2 = win percentage of 79.34% over 6 years
10499 F/A 7365 = F/A percentage of 142.55% over 6 years
Hawthorn 1983-1989 (including finals):
1983 (18 W/L 7) (3030 F/A 2306) Premiership
1984 (19 W/L 6) (3040 F/A 2371) Runner-up
1985 (17 W/L 8 /D 1) (3065 F/A 2457) Runner-up
1986 (20 W/L 5) (3002 F/A 2140) Premiership
1987 (19 W/L 7) (3153 F/A 2210) Runner-up
1988 (21 W/L 3) (3009 F/A 2063) Premiership
1989 (21 W/L 3) (2934 F/A 1962) Premiership
Totals:
4 Premierships
135 W/L 39 /D 1 = win percentage of 77.59% over 7 years
21233 F/A 15509 = F/A percentage of 136.91% over 7 years
Geelong 2007-2013 (including finals):
2007 (21 W/L 4) (2953 F/A 1845) Premiership
2008 (23 W/L 2) (2963 F/A 1881) Runner-up
2009 (21 W/L 4) (2608 F/A 2012) Premiership
2010 (18 W/L 7) (2811 F/A 1971) Finals
2011 (22 W/L 3) (2882 F/A 1836) Premiership
2012 (16 W/L 8) (2289 F/A 1982) Finals
2013 (4 W/L 0) (448 F/A 400) H&A
Totals:
3 Premierships
125 W/L 28 = win percentage of 81.7% over 6-7 years
16954 F/A 11927 = F/A percentage of 142.15% over 6-7 years
ousitgarn
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Almost forgot;
Collingwood are cheating bastards for exploiting the replay rule against us in 1930,
Melbourne are old money, silver spoon toffs who's sons never went to war for their run in the '50s,
& Hawthorn are zone monopolosing, salary cap breaching scum for their run in the '80s.
So it appears I made a mistake with my analysis and Geelong really is the greatest team of all.
Collingwood are cheating bastards for exploiting the replay rule against us in 1930,
Melbourne are old money, silver spoon toffs who's sons never went to war for their run in the '50s,
& Hawthorn are zone monopolosing, salary cap breaching scum for their run in the '80s.
So it appears I made a mistake with my analysis and Geelong really is the greatest team of all.
Great work with the statistics above but there is a couple of other things that need to be factored in.
1. The Amount of teams in the competition. Winning a premiership with 16 in the competition is a lot harder than when there is only 12 or even 6 from the earlier years.
Everything being equal a side in a 6 team competition has a 3% chance if going back to back
A side in a 16 team competition has a 0.3% chance
2. Equalisation. With the salary cap, priority picks, and a draft order, modern day teams can't just buy premierships like the rich teams could in the past.
Geelong IS the greatest team of all. I have no doubt.
1. The Amount of teams in the competition. Winning a premiership with 16 in the competition is a lot harder than when there is only 12 or even 6 from the earlier years.
Everything being equal a side in a 6 team competition has a 3% chance if going back to back
A side in a 16 team competition has a 0.3% chance
2. Equalisation. With the salary cap, priority picks, and a draft order, modern day teams can't just buy premierships like the rich teams could in the past.
Geelong IS the greatest team of all. I have no doubt.
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Statistically, hasn't it been much much harder to win 2 in 3 years than it has been to win back-to-back?
(I'll answer that - yes).
(I'll answer that - yes).
melbournemartin
Brownlow Medallist
I see Shannon Byrnes is on the top list for current players at a bit above 70% but it's fair to say that will take a hammering this year
Gun on the weekend though, second best on ground So yeah, thank you for that. Tom Gilles can * right off though.
Gun on the weekend though, second best on ground
So yeah, thank you for that. Tom Gilles can * right off though.
melbournemartin
Brownlow Medallist
Oh God, just looked at the worst win percentages and it's flooded with Melbourne players. At least we don't have Ted Hall and his fantastic 1 win, 72 losses.
- Thread starter
- #47
If Hawthorn and Collingwood were the only teams in the competition 1925-1941 it wouldn't have meant that they had each had a 50% chance of winning. (Collingwood won all 29 of their matches against Hawthorn in the period.)
To win the premiership you have to make the finals - given seasons of around 18-22 matches, having 6 or 7 opponents significantly weaker than you in the competition may actually make it easier to get enough wins to make the finals than in a competition where there are only 2 or 3 significantly weaker opponents. That it is 'harder' to win the flag in a sixteen or eighteen team competition as opposed to a competition of ten or twelve is an assumption not backed by any empirical evidence of statistical analysis that I've seen. The finals system where since 1901, the 4 best performed teams of the season only have a chance (or real chance under the current system) of winning the premiership I would think makes how many teams there are finishing below, largely irrelevant. Then in the end it comes down to the two best performed teams of the year in a final match - with the rest of competition totally irrelevant, whether there are 16,14,12, or 10 of them.
Equalisation certainly has made a difference. Even in times when there was not much money in the game (pre 1970's) the best players from outside of the exclusive metropolitan recruiting zones (country Victoria and the rest of Australia) would tend to prefer joining successful clubs than the strugglers. The Geelong that won 5 premierships 1925-52 didn't have any money but benefited from a significant number of good players from country Victoria (and their families) preferring that they play and live in 'country' Geelong instead of what was perceived as a less healthy and salubrious environment of the 'big smoke' of Melbourne. Country zoning in the 70s and 80s nearly killed the Cats. (Over 60% of Geelong's 1951-2 teams were recruited from country Victoria - not including Geelong itself -. Their opponents in the grand finals, Essendon and Collingwood had teams consisting of 75% of their players from their suburban recruiting zones.)
But then good management can overcome "equalisation" - under the current and past draft rules, Geelong would have last qualified for a 'priority' draft pick in 1945 - had there been such a thing.
Geelong picks team players to develop - other clubs get deluded picking what they think are teen-aged ready-made stars who have rankings based on dubious "statistics", with their high draft picks.
SJ
Premium Platinum
Bar raised again to 124-26.
Senatorguesty
Cancelled
- Thread starter
- #50
Will lose the round 5 2007 loss to Nth. Melbourne from the sequence next round and a win against Essendon will make Geelong 125 wins 25 losses from 150 matches - then that's the end of it (assuming that they keep winning) until the round 21 2007 loss to Port Adelaide drops out. (In the meantime the best result from 150 consecutive matches can be improved on by for and against percentage only.)
The win against Richmond also gives Geelong new club best results from 200 and 300 matches.
Links to the update tables can be found here Monday morning - RogersResults
