Preview Changes v GWS

[Thylacinus]

Van Berlo is an interesting one. I was so excited after watching his first game against North (particularly the first half) and against Collingwood. Looked like Van Berlo of 2012. He was really damaging with the ball, had a really good mix of inside/outside work and worked really hard.

Since then his form has been similar to Brodie Martin in 2014. He is still working very hard, but is putting in very vanilla performances. He racks up his 15 touches, but just isn't damaging with them. He isn't getting the ball in dangerous positions. His form has not been very good.

Having said that - I can understand why Walsh has kept him in. We have a lot of players who are very young and can be expected to put in up and down performances. Crouch, Lever, Kelly, CEY, Grigg have all played under 18 games of AFL football. Lyons has played less than 20 FULL games. Thats almost 1/3 of our team that the coaching group cannot rely on week to week for consistency in their performance. These players are also still adjusting to the speed of AFL footy, the physical toll on the body, learning AFL structures during the game and a million other things you can only learn from experience. Its also the decision making. When to commit to the contest and when to stay outside, when to leave your man for the benefit of the team, etc. Communication is another big one.

VB and Wright both have enough experience that they can still contribute defensively even if they aren't damaging with the ball.

Its about balance. We are going into our game this weekend missing 4 of our best 10 players from last year (Sloane, Smith, Jaensch, Douglas) and possibly 5 if the rumours of Jenkins out are confirmed.

Whilst Walsh has his eyes on 2017, I think he also understands that we need to have some experienced bridge players in 2015 while we figure out which of our younger players (B Crouch, M Crouch, Cameron, Lyons, Grigg, CEY) can be counted on to be consistent performers.

I think that VB is where Dom Cassissi was in 2012. Will play a bunch of games this year and then have a heavily reduced role in 2016 and 2017 as we (hopefully climb the ladder). I would assume he will retire at the end of 2017.

You wrote: "Whilst Walsh has his eyes on 2017".

Can you please point me to where Walsh said this?

 

[AFC979810]

You wrote: "Whilst Walsh has his eyes on 2017".

Can you please point me to where Walsh said this?

Anytime.

http://www.fiveaa.com.au/shows/rowey-bicks/phil-walsh-eyes-2017-premiership-window

 

[Thylacinus]

Anytime.

http://www.fiveaa.com.au/shows/rowey-bicks/phil-walsh-eyes-2017-premiership-window

Thanking you. Once I started listening to it I could recall having listened to it soon after it went to air over the summer.

What I got from this is that Walsh was being shrewd in playing down expectations in stating the ages and experience that are ideal for a premiership team. While stating we would be at that level in around 2017, he also said he hoped a premiership would be around the corner earlier and that we would be trying for that. I believe to be any sort of chance we would need an excellent run with injuries and some luck, not to mention a "backs to the wall" win today.

Walsh has also said more than once recently something along the lines he would like us to win the majority of games left leading up to bye as that would help set up the season and give us some control in preparing for finals footy. I think we will find out a bit today as to how realistic this is.

 

[1970crow]

Petrenko was also very low on fitness. For all the plaudits he received for his tackling it would only be one big effort per play, if that failed he was finished as he couldn't do any repeat efforts. Extremely overrated.

Back pocket was his only option but was never given a shot there (bar that famous quarter). I fear his kicking would've let us down too much but would've been an interesting experiment.

Sando's fault again. It was obvious that Pet's was built up to be a wrecking ball not a running athlete. I recall Sando singling out Pets as the type of player to be at risk if rotations were capped due to his spurt method of playing and then needing a rest. Almost as if his aerobic fitness was a matter beyond Sando's control.

 

[AFC979810]

Thanking you. Once I started listening to it I could recall having listened to it soon after it went to air over the summer.

What I got from this is that Walsh was being shrewd in playing down expectations in stating the ages and experience that are ideal for a premiership team. While stating we would be at that level in around 2017, he also said he hoped a premiership would be around the corner earlier and that we would be trying for that. I believe to be any sort of chance we would need an excellent run with injuries and some luck, not to mention a "backs to the wall" win today.

Walsh has also said more than once recently something along the lines he would like us to win the majority of games left leading up to bye as that would help set up the season and give us some control in preparing for finals footy. I think we will find out a bit today as to how realistic this is.

Its a bit of a balancing act for Walsh and I think what he says in his media interviews reflects this. We are still a big club and in our market there are still expectations on our performance so there will still be talk of finals and short term success.

He comes in to a situation where we sacked our coach for a season where we finished one win away from making the 8. It shows the fans and the media that we thought we underperformed and can do better. At the same time Trigg is gone - and the he comes into a brand new situation with 2 new board members and a new CEO desperate to take the club in another direction. They have identified that they want to be elite and the club isn't near that level. It says (without saying) that massive changes will be made and that things might take a little time - but we have a clear path to a flag.

I think his selection policy and some of the decisions he has made (leaving Hartigan on Stringer for 5 goals) show that he has a real eye to our 2017 push. Giving blocks of games in a row to CEY, Lever & Kelly (who had a combined total of 1 AFL game prior to 2015) and giving Grigg, Lyons, Crouch and Cameron an extended run to see where they fit.

He is in a good position where we are 5-2 and he can keep playing youngsters. I just hope that if things turn bad he doesn't get jumpy.

 

[1970crow]

Plenty of poor judgement, but that's not any different than usual reading the game day threads.



Well, at least we agree on two things in your post. Bonus prize for guessing what.

Past selection doesn't guarantee future selection, I agree. It can be a reasonable predictor though. It can also be used to assess past opinions.

For example, if someone holds the view that a person who has never been dropped is rubbish and should have been dropped every week, you can probably take with a grain of salt their next prediction about whether they would be selected.



I was also pretty much the first to plant a flag for Tex as next captain, I was just wrong when that would be. Of course, I'm not sure at the time that I predicted Sanderson's demise. Who do you think captained if he had stayed?

Tell me though, who have you supported for captain (including your prediction for next captain whilst vB was captain)? Let's see your record?

Unless your great achievement is merely predicting that van Berlo's captaincy would end at some point in the future. You get heaps of credit for that.

It was obvious it was amongst 3. If you search you will see a post a week or so before where I say I'm in the Sloane or Tex camp. But I don't see the relevance of the importance of predicting the next captain. It was obvious the incumbent was not going to meet the criteria set down by Walsh.

FWIW, I'm not saying VB's finished, but his form surely puts his spot up for discussion if we get a few players back. Surely you would concede his 2013 wasn't great and he's 30 soon and coming off a 12 month injury. I'm convinced that he'll get a chance off a HBF. But he started off, according to Walsh, finding his own ball. Then he's apparently doing defensive wing/fwd jobs. He needs to find form sonewhere sooner rather than later.

 

[1970crow]

I'm not sure that they're competing for the same position.

I have wondered if Grigg will end up being the beneficiary of Jaensch's misfortune though.

I'm not sure his 1 v 1 defensive work is there. Especially in the air. I know Jaensch learnt on the job, but we've got 2 genuine rookies down there already, so i'm not sure whether we coukd afford a third.

 

[Mattrox]

Deleted

 

[Thylacinus]

Its a bit of a balancing act for Walsh and I think what he says in his media interviews reflects this. We are still a big club and in our market there are still expectations on our performance so there will still be talk of finals and short term success.

He comes in to a situation where we sacked our coach for a season where we finished one win away from making the 8. It shows the fans and the media that we thought we underperformed and can do better. At the same time Trigg is gone - and the he comes into a brand new situation with 2 new board members and a new CEO desperate to take the club in another direction. They have identified that they want to be elite and the club isn't near that level. It says (without saying) that massive changes will be made and that things might take a little time - but we have a clear path to a flag.

I think his selection policy and some of the decisions he has made (leaving Hartigan on Stringer for 5 goals) show that he has a real eye to our 2017 push. Giving blocks of games in a row to CEY, Lever & Kelly (who had a combined total of 1 AFL game prior to 2015) and giving Grigg, Lyons, Crouch and Cameron an extended run to see where they fit.

He is in a good position where we are 5-2 and he can keep playing youngsters. I just hope that if things turn bad he doesn't get jumpy.

Some interesting points and insights here. I have appreciated them.

Regarding selection policy and decisions I would suggest that all were logical and dictated by circumstances. CEY earned his spot through an outstanding NAB cup where he did well and improved each game. Walsh gave Hartigan every chance and then bought in the younger players when it became clear Hartigan wasn't going to cut it and Cheney was out with a couple of weeks injury. Both players have made the most of their chances to date. The three young mids in Crouch, Grigg and Lyons are the next best once the injuries hit some of our regular mids. Lyons probably would not be there today if Kerridge played a blinder in the SANFL last week while the other two have so far done enough. CC was dropped but bought back for team balance as the Doggies game exposed how we missed his lack of pace and pressure. He has come on since then in his own right.

One interesting thing about the youngsters playing today is that all except Lever is over 20 and all have been in the AFL system for over a full year now, some much longer, and Lever is all class and you cant beat natural talent and the confidence and poise that can breed! In other words even with our youngsters we do not have a group of panicky, pimply, excitable, non hardened 18 year olds.

 

[Elite Crow]

I don't accept your claim that van Berlo's disposal has been problematic this year. That the statistics support me is only one of the things I draw comfort from.

Of course, statistics and reality aren't as important as how you feel about things though.

I haven't said his disposal has been problematic this year, what I said is in relation to last weeks game that there were examples of poor decision making which aren't shown up in the stats.

Reality is on my side in this one, statistics are with you.

 

[Wood_Duck]

Given I'm fighting the milky bar kid and his possession count posse here, that's a bit rich.

I am genuinely excited to learn that we have the milky bar kid on this forum. I love milky bars.

 

[Wood_Duck]

Yea, Woody, how about you rank them for us?

Best to worst on field leader amongst that group.

And don't squib my VB question Base it on this year (and 2013, if you like).

Tex is by far the standout. I would also rate Sloane quite highly. Dangerfield mid pack similar to Van Berlo. Sauce and Thommo are leaders by example but I believe provide limited input to other players in terms of on field organisation. Talia is on a very steep learning curve given how much of a leader truck was in the backline. Enormous boots to fill.

I really wasnt squibbing on your VB question. I think Ive been pretty clear on where I see VB currently given that I was questioning whether he is still good enough to play the Jaensch role. Out of 10 he rates fairly low in all of the area you raised. A Van Berlo in decent form with some confidence could easily do it though. I fully understand why they are persevering with him despite the fact that my own patience has worn thin.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I'm not sure his 1 v 1 defensive work is there. Especially in the air. I know Jaensch learnt on the job, but we've got 2 genuine rookies down there already, so i'm not sure whether we coukd afford a third.

Might be right. Jaensch certainly improved on that the last few years, after struggling early.

I'm thinking more in the sense that the long left coming out of defense opens a lot of different angles (which Walsh was said to be a fan of when we got him).

 

[Mr_Moogle]

I still think Pets was handled terribly by Sando.

Not saying he would've been a star, and he was probably lucky to play as many games as he did in the end, but I don't think we ever played him to his strengths, and put him in a position where he'd have the opportunity to establish him.

That look of fear Petrenko used to get as he lined up a set shot was a massive red flag. For a forward to be successful, they need to be extremely confident, back their skills and want the ball in their hands at the pivotal moment.

To be fair Pets did still kick some pretty decent goals on the run which suggests he's probably better at playing instinctual footy.

 

[footy4ever]

Hendo is out - Kerridge in.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Turns out Kedge isn't even being kept out of the team.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Hendo is out - Kerridge in.

Gee... Jaensch, Smith and Hendo all out

I hope we aren't banking on run and carry or long kicking this week

 

[AFC979810]

Gee... Jaensch, Smith and Hendo all out

I hope we aren't banking on run and carry or long kicking this week

We still have the Jewel of the Crown.

#mookay

 

[AFC979810]

All I can say is thank the good lord above that the SANFL doesn't have a game this week. Otherwise it would be our resident traveling emergency Brodie Martin getting a game.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I think there are conceivable roles in our game style which are defensive in nature which are not tagging roles, which should not be judged primarily based upon possession counts. I also don't think that those roles are limited to people playing in the back 6.'

This is a very good point. We see midfielders such as Dangerfield and Thompson who are primarily offensive, it makes sense that we have primarily defensive midfield roles to complement them.

 

[King Elvis]

I'd like to see who was playing that role on Treloar and Shiels then.

 

[1970crow]

I'd like to see who was playing that role on Treloar and Shiels then.

We only run coolers in our fwd 50.