Collingwood Almanac 2014

[ppoiter]

My recommendation: Draft Moore as a father son selection assuming he’s deemed worth that selection. To properly fulfil this need I’d wait until GWS are motivated to move one of Cameron/Boyd/Patton and then make the big play at one of the premier bigs.

What do you think the chances are of this eventuating? If I were GWS id be looking to retain all 3 almost no matter what. Salary cap shouldnt be an issue for them as it is for everyone else bar GC

 

[MagpieBat]

It's unusual and it will come up in the bios later on when I give a little more rational but I'm glad you asked because it was very much intended.

CHB is obviously not his position but I'd be playing Gault forward with the front half where he's shown the most promise.

On Lynch I'd like to see him moved back. Physically and aerobically he can easy go with anyone at VFL level, he's a strong mark, reads it well in the air and is a volume accumulator so I don't see him having much trouble making the transition being the profession he is. By foot his field kicking has been fine with his issue by foot primarily with his conversion in front of goal so I speculate that the back half may well be where we get the best value out of him.

Up forward Lynch isn't a best 22 threat as evidenced by him not playing despite Reid's absence but down back if Brown and Keeffe continue to play below average footy Lynch may even present an unexpected alternative and put some unexpected pressure on the pair of them to perform and earn their positions in the senior side.

Thanks for that, Knight.

I look forward to reading your full write-ups.

Just on another point, I see you've placed Dwyer, Goldsack, Blair, Thomas and Sinclair in the 'tradeables' category. Just out of curiosity, what do you see their individual trade values as? I would have thought that none of them would net anymore than a 3rd rounder. I'd disagree on putting Dwyer and Thomas in there as well, given Dwyer offers us polish as a deliverer inside forward 50 and Thomas offering us a successor to Luke Ball (even accounting for Taylor Adams).

 

[Jelly Bean]

Wow. You named Reid in the forward line. I though you were among the more vocal of your opposition of having him there. What changed?

 

[soreplums]

I'm assuming the topic here is still Martin.

On Martin he's just a really smart runner. Similar to Paul Chapman he doesn't need to move a whole lot for the ball to just find him which is a large part of why Martin is such a high volume ball getter.

In front of goal Martin is relatively good but to targets up the field anyway he's not as reliable as you'd like which is in this context where he can at times get unstuck.

But he's sure as anything proven he can accumulate even at AFL level in bunches which makes him an interesting discussion point.
.

Yep, Martin. Sorry.

If he can find the footy that regularly the that's the first battle. He may need to sharpen up his skills, but I'm hoping that he gets some regular time in the AFL in the second half of the year to earmark senior spot on our list.

 

[Knightmare]

What do you think the chances are of this eventuating? If I were GWS id be looking to retain all 3 almost no matter what. Salary cap shouldnt be an issue for them as it is for everyone else bar GC

I'd be looking to retain the trio no matter what also in GWS' situation. They could become three of the five best key forwards in the game once established and they'll be fun to watch this weekend.

Perhaps one requests to move back to Victoria. Perhaps GWS decide that there isn't room for all three to function effectively. Maybe GWS end up with pick 1 or 2 again and have a dilema with yet another key forward projecting as the best player available and then they shop that pick. Perhaps one of the big three wants a pay day GWS just don't have the ability to provide because they've got so many stars they just can't afford to keep. Perhaps they look to spread the age demographic down the track and trade into a combination of high draft picks in the future. There are situations where one of them may at some point move.

I don't see any of the big three moving this offseason. Perhaps next offseason once they decide to shop some bigs for other players to fill any gaps inside the best 22 but most likely it will be some time further down the track yet.

Thanks for that, Knight.

I look forward to reading your full write-ups.

Just on another point, I see you've placed Dwyer, Goldsack, Blair, Thomas and Sinclair in the 'tradeables' category. Just out of curiosity, what do you see their individual trade values as? I would have thought that none of them would net anymore than a 3rd rounder. I'd disagree on putting Dwyer and Thomas in there as well, given Dwyer offers us polish as a deliverer inside forward 50 and Thomas offering us a successor to Luke Ball (even accounting for Taylor Adams).

With Dwyer and Thomas we're likely retaining the pair.

They just fit into this category because I don't see either at this point (subject to change of course) in our best 22 now or in the future.

Dwyer while I agree offensively he's polished. I love his sidestep. He finds space so well and has a nice skillset. He falls short with his pressure game with his tackling for a small very poor. I also expect while only the regular VFL viewers have seen him - Tim Broomhead to pass Dwyer by as soon as this year once he gets healthy as largely the same but a younger, better player with a better rounded game.

On Josh Thomas he's someone similar to Blair I see as unfortunate because of the sheer depth of our midfield. We've got Pendlebury/Beams/Swan/Ball/Adams. There isn't anyone to play in front of. Then I'm really hoping guys like Langdon and Scharenberg as defenders become rotational midfielders and Broomhead and perhaps Fasolo as forwards to also be rotational midfielders with time. Both Thomas and Blair are inside only players and just don't offer the versatility or impact as some others. Both Thomas and Blair outside the contest struggle to find the footy and neither are damaging when they get it. And on the Luke Ball replacement idea with Adams much the same thing and probably slightly better he's the almost certain long term Luke Ball replacement it's hard to see either of Thomas or Blair as long term players for the club with Adams in the side.

In that tradeable 1 category they're guys I see as genuinely of usefulness to other clubs lacking these types and as guys who for their long term careers prospects would probably benefit from a change in clubs if they want to become fixtures in a best 22.

On their currencies though they're roughly worth late second or third round selections and for late picks you probably wouldn't move them on with the clubs interest I'm hoping anyway in list stability. If you don't get the right pick/player in return you'd keep them. If you can get a return of a player who has lacked opportunity and fits the Collingwood list - think along the lines of the Paine for Karnezis trade last year that is when I'd consider pulling the trigger on this type of trade.

 

[TradeDraft]

Brief notes on Darcy Moore: He’s a great height at 199cm and I’d plan to use him as a potential no.2 ruckman who will spend the majority of his minutes at centre half forward. He’s a contested marking threat, reads the ball well in the air and moves pretty well for someone his height. His best position is centre half forward but he’s also shown some ability down back so he does give you options.

If we want Moore he’ll cost us our first round selection, as it’s almost certain a club with a top 5 or 6 pick will bid on Moore so the higher Collingwood finish the better the relative value we can receive Moore for.

When/IF he plays in the VFL in the 2nd half of the Season where they play him.

With the Lowest Pick I see us having would be Pick 7. I say that be worth it for Moore unless a Amazing Trade is Offered to us before the Father/Son Nomination

 

[Knightmare]

Wow. You named Reid in the forward line. I though you were among the more vocal of your opposition of having him there. What changed?

I changed my view on Reid as a forward just before the preseason for a few reasons.

With the style of play our backmen now play Reid as we saw last year is no more effective than Keeffe or Brown. We're now a much more accountable 1v1 and transition running back half now whereas under Mick we had more of a zoning back half which allowed Reid the freedom to go for all those intercept marks and enabled him to be a gamechanger down back and in my view be our best player through our great 2011 season.
If we allowed Reid the freedom to play more of an intercept marking game I'd say Reid should be kept back but until we see him allowed that freedom he plays so well with down back he's better positioned as a forward.

The other major reason why I like Reid forward is for Cloke. With Reid, Cloke doesn't get doubled and it really enables him to be an effective forward threat. Without him as we're seeing Cloke really struggles to have an impact on games.

In the future I'd strongly consider moving Reid back but on the condition that:
1. he is offered the freedom to zone off when he likes and play the game instinctively. when he is given this opportunity the only other key defender even close to as good as Reid is Harry Taylor.
2. Only when Cloke has two quality key forwards to play alongside. An example of this would be if we were to draft Moore as a key forward who can rotate into the ruck then draft say as an example Sam Weideman from the TAC as that second key forward the following year as our first round draft pick, once both are developed you could move Reid back. Assuming the pair both develop adequately and are good enough to similarly take the pressure off Cloke.

Yep, Martin. Sorry.

If he can find the footy that regularly the that's the first battle. He may need to sharpen up his skills, but I'm hoping that he gets some regular time in the AFL in the second half of the year to earmark senior spot on our list.

Likewise. Would love to see Martin make it and earn a spot in our best side.

 

[Vicky Park]

Fantastic work, Knightmare, thank you.

 

[loki04]

Maxwell should retire at years end.

 

[Likitysplit]

Great work mate, awesome read because myself (and I know a lot of other posters) really value your opinion. Great insight

 

[POKsPies252]

Great stuff but bloody hell I'd be annoyed if we traded JT for a late second/early third rounder. Do people not remember how good he was at times last year?

 

[Knightmare]

Maxwell should retire at years end.

I'm willing to give Maxwell the opportunity to choose when to retire.

His last three weeks have been excellent and I've had him in my bests each week. It's the best he's played under Buckley and he seems to be thriving with the extra freedom to intercept he has received and it's allowing him to again be a really effective player.

With such an inexperienced back half with guys like Langdon and Scharenberg first years and Seedsman and Williams still very much developing players I think for the future prospects of our back half it's important that Maxwell stays on for another season to help the group develop as beyond his on field performance he plays a massive role in helping fast-track the youth.

Even if by the end of next season Maxwell isn't part of the best 22 I couldn't care less. His value to the list from a leadership and player development perspective far outweigh in my mind the benefit of having another late draft selection with the value of veterans who can lead AFL wide horribly underrated.

Great stuff but bloody hell I'd be annoyed if we traded JT for a late second/early third rounder. Do people not remember how good he was at times last year?

With Josh Thomas if it wasn't for the addition of Taylor Adams he would probably even be a part of our best side. Just with Adams and Thomas or Blair for that matter we're too small, too inside and too vanilla. It doesn't make for a great team dynamic even if these guys learn to play forward.

With Thomas though as with the others it's hard to see anyone offering anything significant as his form hasn't been as exposed as some of those who have played during our grand final years so I wouldn't stress too much about him losing his list position, but if a club offered a fair bid and someone who is of equivalent talent and a better list fit that's the only scenario I'd consider moving Thomas.

 

[Shaneprice97]

If Maxwell retires and isnt apart of the coaching board the year after, ill be terribly disappointed.

 

[TradeDraft]

Great work mate, awesome read because myself (and I know a lot of other posters) really value your opinion. Great insight

and a Great Read

 

[rustyg70]

Whats the chance of Martin being elevated mid season?
If its not him, who would it be?

 

[Knightmare]

Whats the chance of Martin being elevated mid season?
If its not him, who would it be?

Yagmoor is going ok and continuing to improve. With that backline carnage if we get more long term injuries he could well be called on if Martin isn't.

 

[TradeDraft]

Whats the chance of Martin being elevated mid season?
If its not him, who would it be?

Frost would be the Strongest Chance

 

[Collingwood pro]

Knightmare have you heard of a player named mitchell donoghue? I think he plays in the Box hill Hawks development side.

 

[Knightmare]

Frost would be the Strongest Chance

He's on the senior list.

Knightmare have you heard of a player named mitchell donoghue? I think he plays in the Box hill Hawks development side.

He's played TAC Cup the past couple of seasons for Oakleigh Chargers.

He's not someone I have taken extensive notes on last year having only played a limited number of games but from what I recall he's a relatively productive smallish outside mid.

 

[Bugglz]

Gamestyle:

Projecting ahead to 2018 best 22 (excluding those born in 1986 or earlier):

Well thanks for making me feel old

On Goldsack, I may be wrong but I thought he qualified as a free agent this year? If not he would be crazy to not seek a trade, he has a few useful tools but I can't see him being on Collingwood's list in 2016

 

[Knightmare]

On Goldsack, I may be wrong but I thought he qualified as a free agent this year? If not he would be crazy to not seek a trade, he has a few useful tools but I can't see him being on Collingwood's list in 2016

Goldsack has voiced pretty publically he wants to remain at Collingwood.

See video: http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-04-11/goldsack-rocket-i-want-to-stay

Maybe he has friends at the club. Maybe he thinks he can be part of another premiership at Collingwood. Maybe he's motivated by being a one club player. Maybe with our seemingly yearly long injury list he thinks he can stick around and get enough games every year.

It will be interesting to see where Goldsack's career finishes. With his enthusiasm to remain with the club I'd happily bring him back for another year or two. While he's not best 22 he's still handy and a useful role player who gives us options forward or back so unless a club gives us a reasonable offer I'd happily retain him.

 

[TradeDraft]

He's on the senior list.

He will come off when Scharenberg is back

 

[soreplums]

We have a lot of young guys on our list who I wouldn't expect to be commanding big $ over the next 2-4 years.

We have quite a few players on good money retiring in the next 2-3 years.

We also have players on good money who will be negotiating their last contracts that would be far less than what they are currently getting.

Brown, Cloke, Reid, Grundy, Sidey, Swanny, Adams all signed up for the next 3 years.

Beams and Pendle will soon be offered big contracts.

Does this mean that we may be able to free up enough money to negotiate contracts to sign Frawley AND Dangerfield?

 

[Shaneprice97]

We have a lot of young guys on our list who I wouldn't expect to be commanding big $ over the next 2-4 years.

We have quite a few players on good money retiring in the next 2-3 years.

We also have players on good money who will be negotiating their last contracts that would be far less than what they are currently getting.

Brown, Cloke, Reid, Grundy, Sidey, Swanny, Adams all signed up for the next 3 years.

Beams and Pendle will soon be offered big contracts.

Does this mean that we may be able to free up enough money to negotiate contracts to sign Frawley AND Dangerfield?

Unlikely in my opinion, its either one or the other.
The club can feel free and prove me wrong

 

[soreplums]

Unlikely in my opinion, its either one or the other.
The club can feel free and prove me wrong

It's hard to know how the contracts are situated, but given that we have already wrapped up some key signings up until end of 2017/2018 and if you think about the money that would free up between 2015-2017 through retirements, delistings and final contracts- with careful restructuring, planning and negotiation along with an increase in salary cap over this time, it may well open up the possibility of snaring both