Analysis Collingwood Almanac 2015

[Knightmare]

So the Draft is so Bad in Depth as you can have 2 Guys not allowed at the Club to be on your Rookie list?

There generally isn't much quality outside the top 30 unless talent is correctly scouted.

This year it's more like the top 20-25, and then it's pretty even.

The first round this year is fine. And there are lots of key position players in this draft. But just the depth as I'm sure every recruiters in the country has stated. Isn't particularly great this year.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Mason Cox looked scary good at FF in the VFL yesterday. From here on in the ruck should be considered plan B and we should doing everything we can to develop him as a full forward. The fact he was beating his opponent on the lead and 1v1 demonstrates that he has a flexibility to his game that will be make it almost impossible to find a match up for him even at AFL level. It will allow Cloke to play up the ground + having two forwards who can take contested grabs will centralize the way we direct the ball into the forwardline + reduce opportunities for sides to go third man up on Cloke. Playing Moore as the third forward will also aid his development and will allow Reid to move back to defence (as well as reduce our reliance on him) which is probably best for him to resurrect his career. Lastly, it solves the problem of who plays second ruck.

 

[TradeDraft]

Knightmare Going to Update you Rankings and Add extra Stuff?

 

[Soups]

Pretty spot on what you said at the start and middle of the year about where we were going to finish up this season. Once again mate your very deep analysis proves where this club is at the moment. Good work.

 

[Collingwood pro]

Would you consider Troy Menzel?

 

[Knightmare]

Mason Cox looked scary good at FF in the VFL yesterday. From here on in the ruck should be considered plan B and we should doing everything we can to develop him as a full forward. The fact he was beating his opponent on the lead and 1v1 demonstrates that he has a flexibility to his game that will be make it almost impossible to find a match up for him even at AFL level. It will allow Cloke to play up the ground + having two forwards who can take contested grabs will centralize the way we direct the ball into the forwardline + reduce opportunities for sides to go third man up on Cloke. Playing Moore as the third forward will also aid his development and will allow Reid to move back to defence (as well as reduce our reliance on him) which is probably best for him to resurrect his career. Lastly, it solves the problem of who plays second ruck.

Mason Cox was excellent. Particularly in that second half. Clunking his marks overhead. Taking some contested and 1v1 grabs. Scoreboard impact. Leading patterns natural and finding the spaces left behind. It really was a coming out game, and a sign that he could be a genuine option as a relief ruckman to Grundy from next season, playing mostly forward.

I like you're thinking re. Cox the forward as we have so many options through the ruck and too few good forward options. What we will need to watch for is that Cox can do that every week, rather than every now and then. At this point, it's the first time Cox has taken that many marks inside 50 or kicked that many goals. So he needs to at VFL level start doing that every week before we start talking about that being his regular and permanent.

As mentioned before though. If I'm picking a ruck combination that I expect will at the end of next year be best 22. I can't help but think it will be Grundy as that lead ruckman, and Cox playing as his partner through the ruck, taking the greater forward minutes as that more threatening marking target inside the front 50m.

In terms of Reid. He is someone I'll stay strong on retaining specifically as a forward. As a key defender he has lost what once made him special being that 60m dagger of a kick. He now is just a 50m kick and lacks that low, quick through the air kick that consistently hits. And like with Dale Thomas and that running and energy game, Reid's kicking on the level it once was seems to have passed him by. As a forward through as per what he achieved during the 2013 season, he can still be a really good target in that front 50 and the only player who can genuinely take the pressure off Cloke to allow our front half to be efficient as it was again going back to the 2013 season.

On Moore. I'd look at him more until he proves otherwise as a backup who should be that first key forward in when either of Cloke or Reid are absent. I'd also leave the possibility open for Moore to play that relief ruck and mostly forward role he has in recent weeks if we only have the one in form ruckmen with no ruckmen proving adequate forward of centre.

It's good improving depth through both in the ruck and forward positions with (as capable and worthwhile options):
Ruck: Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts.
Ruck/forward: Mason Cox and Darcy Moore.
Key forward: Travis Cloke and Ben Reid.

Knightmare Going to Update you Rankings and Add extra Stuff?

I'll update my draft profiles first on the draft and trading board. But at seasons end I'll write up some player profiles on where I feel they are at and where/if they have improved at all etc. I'll also update draft/trading plans among other things (if I find the time).

Pretty spot on what you said at the start and middle of the year about where we were going to finish up this season. Once again mate your very deep analysis proves where this club is at the moment. Good work.

I'd like not to be right regarding our likely finish position one of these days when I have the Pies finishing outside the top 8, but when key players are lost and so much experience and leadership walks. Even with the good run with injuries we have had. It's hard.

Would you consider Troy Menzel?

Any rumours he wants out?

Menzel is a very good if not excellent talent. I am wiry from an injury perspective as he did his knees as a junior, and we all know Daniel's history with those knees.

Given that. I'd consider Menzel if he was being offered on the cheap (let's say a mid-late second round selection or equivalent). But certainly a top 25 pick or anyone inside our best 22 I wouldn't feel comfortable giving up, with our recent lack of ability when it comes to keeping our players healthy.
And that kind of offer is an absolute disservice to Menzel's ability, as he is worth a pick around I'd estimate pick 20. But just my comfort level in dealing for him would be lower than that. Particularly having had LARS as a teenager, and seeing how many guys post-LARS have their knees go again.

 

[TradeDraft]

On Moore. I'd look at him more until he proves otherwise as a backup who should be that first key forward in when either of Cloke or Reid are absent. I'd also leave the possibility open for Moore to play that relief ruck and mostly forward role he has in recent weeks if we only have the one in form ruckmen with no ruckmen proving adequate forward of centre.

It's good improving depth through both in the ruck and forward positions with (as capable and worthwhile options):
Ruck: Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts.
Ruck/forward: Mason Cox and Darcy Moore.
Key forward: Travis Cloke and Ben Reid.

I think Reid is a Better Defender then a Forward.

So I would put Moore up Forward and Reid Down Back. I am not 100% Sold that Reid is a better option then Moore.

I have Moore Ahead of Cox as a Forward/Ruck. Cox has the Height but Struggles around the Ground and Yesterday was the 1st Time he Started to take Marks. Moore would get more of the Ball around the ground then Cox

 

[Knightmare]

I think Reid is a Better Defender then a Forward.

So I would put Moore up Forward and Reid Down Back. I am not 100% Sold that Reid is a better option then Moore.

I have Moore Ahead of Cox as a Forward/Ruck. Cox has the Height but Struggles around the Ground and Yesterday was the 1st Time he Started to take Marks. Moore would get more of the Ball around the ground then Cox

Moore is only averaging a goal a game at AFL level.

Reid who is playing underdone is averaging 2.5 goals per game.

Reid is a clearly better forward than Moore today. And get a preseason in Reid and he can get back to playing the way he did in 2013 which was pretty good up front.

And knowing what Reid was doing in 2013 as a forward alongside Cloke and how efficient that combination was. For me it's a no-brainer if healthy that they both play together as that forward combination.

For me Reid the backman is done. He is no longer effective down back. I'd play Marsh today as a key defender ahead of Reid, in combination with Brown as that second key defender, and I'd have Scharenberg as that third option who can play on talls.
Frost I'm losing interest in as an option, and like Reid. I no longer see him as a better option. With in Frost's case his 1v1 work and ability to restrict his opponents influence not where it needs to be, particularly for someone who is not a rebounder as a poor kick and a non-intercept marker.

Reid on the other hand I don't rate as a key defender anymore as he is an only average stopper firstly, but then as a rebounder he no longer possesses what he once had. He can still take intercept marks when he is given the freedom, though he plays more of a close-checking role now and with his kick only average at best now. He lacks that point of different down back, or anything that sets him out from the next option.


As for that number two/relief ruck role. It will be an interesting fight next season. And Moore and Cox both should be among those fighting it out. Cox is by far and away the better tap ruckman. Up forward Moore is better at ground level and the more freakish athlete. Overhead I'll take Cox with his extra height and slightly better hands.
If I need to pick one to win a game next week. I'd pick Cox with his formline better.
But that's an either way discussion where you could make a case for either, with both improving just as rapidly, and likely to continue to improve equally rapidly, with Cox while not as young as hard a worker and as professional as anyone on our list by all reports and as such improving as quickly as anyone, which makes his ceiling awfully high.

 

[left at home]

with big cox improving so quickly do think the club could trade one of our 1st rucks inthis years off season

 

[TradeDraft]

with big cox improving so quickly do think the club could trade one of our 1st rucks inthis years off season

I doubt that would happen but IF it continues to improve next year. Then there is a chance but still need another ruckman for Depth

 

[TradeDraft]

As for that number two/relief ruck role. It will be an interesting fight next season. And Moore and Cox both should be among those fighting it out. Cox is by far and away the better tap ruckman. Up forward Moore is better at ground level and the more freakish athlete. Overhead I'll take Cox with his extra height and slightly better hands.
If I need to pick one to win a game next week. I'd pick Cox with his formline better.
But that's an either way discussion where you could make a case for either, with both improving just as rapidly, and likely to continue to improve equally rapidly, with Cox while not as young as hard a worker and as professional as anyone on our list by all reports and as such improving as quickly as anyone, which makes his ceiling awfully high.

Of Course Cox be better Tap Ruckman then Moore. Being the Tallest Player in the AFL would help with that. I think I take Moore Overhead then Cox. Cox has only just started taking Overhead/Contested Marks and Moore been good at both AFL and VFL Level with his Marking. Taken some strong marks at AFL Level.

Why do you think Cox’s Formline is Better? Cox being playing Okay in the VFL before this Weekend where he had his Breakout game. Moore has 2 really solid games at AFL Level last 2 weeks. Moore could say is just as much Professional as Cox is.

Both are Exciting Prospects but Cox is still behind Moore.

Knightmare I like what I seen when Moore has pushed up the Ground so could we see Moore spend sometime in the Midfield?

 

[Knightmare]

with big cox improving so quickly do think the club could trade one of our 1st rucks inthis years off season

Witts if we can significantly upgrade I would be open to moving.

But I imagine we'll retain our three ruckmen (Grundy/Witts/Cox) and have them fighting for spots next season.

Of Course Cox be better Tap Ruckman then Moore. Being the Tallest Player in the AFL would help with that. I think I take Moore Overhead then Cox. Cox has only just started taking Overhead/Contested Marks and Moore been good at both AFL and VFL Level with his Marking. Taken some strong marks at AFL Level.

Why do you think Cox’s Formline is Better? Cox being playing Okay in the VFL before this Weekend where he had his Breakout game. Moore has 2 really solid games at AFL Level last 2 weeks. Moore could say is just as much Professional as Cox is.

Both are Exciting Prospects but Cox is still behind Moore.

Knightmare I like what I seen when Moore has pushed up the Ground so could we see Moore spend sometime in the Midfield?

Moore has only impressed overhead v WBD under the closer roof where he could more easily read the flight, elevate and take grabs overhead. He can still struggle at times with reading the flight at he also drops more marks than he should.

Cox while still a developing mark seems to drop less marks and also is getting into the right positions to take marks of late which is highly impressive.

Moore has had one great AFL game, with his other games poor-serviceable. And that's to be expected as a first year key forward.

Moore the midfielder I have pondered because he has the ground level ability, pretty reasonable skills and can also spread. For some minor minutes I'm open to Moore like Roughead get some opportunities on the ball.

 

[Collingwood pro]

Knightmare why do you think Watts never became that all conquering god that Melbourne fans wanted? He's 196cm and strongly built with all the skills, really he should be dominating but I would say he is only slightly better than White.

 

[TradeDraft]

Moore has only impressed overhead v WBD under the closer roof where he could more easily read the flight, elevate and take grabs overhead. He can still struggle at times with reading the flight at he also drops more marks than he should.

Cox while still a developing mark seems to drop less marks and also is getting into the right positions to take marks of late which is highly impressive.

Moore has had one great AFL game, with his other games poor-serviceable. And that's to be expected as a first year key forward.

Moore the midfielder I have pondered because he has the ground level ability, pretty reasonable skills and can also spread. For some minor minutes I'm open to Moore like Roughead get some opportunities on the ball.

I think Moore is not a Bad Reader of the Ball. Still has Improvement but is getting Better. I found marks he has dropped is that either he was pushed around bit because of being still a Young Tall.

Moore has shown he can Develop and Improve quiet Quickly.

So hopefully a Injury-Free Pre-Seaosn he can be a whole new level in 2016

Could be Interesting to see the Battle of I say Reid and Moore to play as the 2nd Tall alongside Cloke. Though I still think Reids Disposal could be still used down back.

 

[DaVe86]

I dont know if reid is done as a backman. I think he just needs to get fit. He has barely played in 2 years, so im not surprised his kicking and touch is a bit off.

Personally, i dont like us going with 3 tall forwards, so if reid cant play defence i question his value.

In the end, he just needs to get fit. But i still think he is a backman first who can play forward. If he gets.strength back through the legs he can bet his kicking back

 

[TradeDraft]

I dont know if reid is done as a backman. I think he just needs to get fit. He has barely played in 2 years, so im not surprised his kicking and touch is a bit off.

Personally, i dont like us going with 3 tall forwards, so if reid cant play defence i question his value.

In the end, he just needs to get fit. But i still think he is a backman first who can play forward. If he gets.strength back through the legs he can bet his kicking back

The Big Question though can he can Get and Stay Fit?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare why do you think Watts never became that all conquering god that Melbourne fans wanted? He's 196cm and strongly built with all the skills, really he should be dominating but I would say he is only slightly better than White.

I don't see it as being (entirely) Watts' fault and I place more blame on Melbourne than I do Jack.

Melbourne have lacked an experienced playing list and veteran leadership. On top of that they've also had poor coaching and poor player development (until Paul Roos). So he based on the conditions around him has not had the best opportunity to develop into the player he was coming out of the juniors projected to become.

And it's a constant theme with those top picks going to bottom teams. So few end up being the best players in the draft, despite how they are rated as juniors, because so often they are going to young teams with not enough veteran leadership, poor coaching and poor player development, or some combination of those.

Had Jack Watts landed as a junior at lets say Geelong, or Hawthorn. I fully expect we would be talking about an entirely different footballer today.

 

[DaVe86]

The Big Question though can he can Get and Stay Fit?

Well i think he needs to play the last 2 games and really manage himself through a strong pre season. Its going to be a real test for our fitness team, but seemingly we are in a better position now than this time last year.

 

[Knightmare]

I dont know if reid is done as a backman. I think he just needs to get fit. He has barely played in 2 years, so im not surprised his kicking and touch is a bit off.

Personally, i dont like us going with 3 tall forwards, so if reid cant play defence i question his value.

In the end, he just needs to get fit. But i still think he is a backman first who can play forward. If he gets.strength back through the legs he can bet his kicking back

With Reid on his kicking. In 2011 he was among the very best kicks in the competition.

Since, he hasn't been able to kick. And given the years passed since that 2011 season. It is reasonable to assume that he will not regain his once rare kicking ability for a key defender.

He used to have that 60m consistent dagger. But now/since it's been a 50m hit/miss kick with nothing on it. Additionally with the 1v1 brand of footy we have our defenders play, Reid just doesn't get that same freedom to intercept as he did in 2011. So I no longer see any value to what he offers above any of our other key defenders, with both Marsh and Scharenberg options I would favour to Reid today and next season down back.

With Reid I don't know what it is. Is it a calf? Hamstring? Ankle? I can't help but think it's an ankle that has just never completely healed, as he often seems to flinch when he kicks it, and it splays off his boot sometimes even wildly since in 2011 we just never saw.

 

[DaVe86]

He kicked a 55 metre bomb against carlton from the boundary, so the distance is there. He just needs consistency and confidence in his body.

Who knows if he will ever get it back, but we shouldnt give up

 

[TradeDraft]

With Reid on his kicking. In 2011 he was among the very best kicks in the competition.

Since, he hasn't been able to kick. And given the years passed since that 2011 season. It is reasonable to assume that he will not regain his once rare kicking ability for a key defender.

He used to have that 60m consistent dagger. But now/since it's been a 50m hit/miss kick with nothing on it. Additionally with the 1v1 brand of footy we have our defenders play, Reid just doesn't get that same freedom to intercept as he did in 2011. So I no longer see any value to what he offers above any of our other key defenders, with both Marsh and Scharenberg options I would favour to Reid today and next season down back.

With Reid I don't know what it is. Is it a calf? Hamstring? Ankle? I can't help but think it's an ankle that has just never completely healed, as he often seems to flinch when he kicks it, and it splays off his boot sometimes even wildly since in 2011 we just never saw.

IF He can Stay Injury Free. I can his Kicking Coming Back. Can’t see why not. Agree with DaVe86 Seen him Kick long this year like he did pre-Injuries

 

[swoop42]

While it's probably a moot point anyway given our current pick 7 is likely to be used for Treloar I'm interested to know why you have us taking a midfielder at our first pick and not a forward talent either large, medium or small, creative and/or quick?

I guess if we miss on a midfielder in Treloar it would make sense to go for another at pick 7 but it would probably leave a few disappointed.

If we missed Treloar but gained Aish would you still go that way?

If we get Treloar but also end up with another first round selection between 10 to 15 who would you choose?

Still Clarke or another?

P.S-Who is this Clarke?

I see the AFL phantom form guide doesn't rate him within the top 25.

Thanks.

 

[TradeDraft]

Knightmare what you think of Marsh’s Development as he has come a Hell of a Long Way since being drafted in the 5th round of the 2013 Draft?

 

[Knightmare]

While it's probably a moot point anyway given our current pick 7 is likely to be used for Treloar I'm interested to know why you have us taking a midfielder at our first pick and not a forward talent either large, medium or small, creative and/or quick?

I guess if we miss on a midfielder in Treloar it would make sense to go for another at pick 7 but it would probably leave a few disappointed.

If we missed Treloar but gained Aish would you still go that way?

If we get Treloar but also end up with another first round selection between 10 to 15 who would you choose?

Still Clarke or another?

P.S-Who is this Clarke?

I see the AFL phantom form guide doesn't rate him within the top 25.

Thanks.

There are some good key position players in this draft. But those key forwards projected to go around/near our first round selection I do not rate. Weideman who some speak about as being a top 10 pick I regard as a second round selection. Harry McKay I view as a late first round selection. So if we retain that pick it's all about going best available. That may be putting in a bid for Ben Keays or otherwise probably taking Charlie Curnow.

In the 10-15 range again I'd be bidding on Keays for starters. If pick Charlie Curnow if there. I'd consider putting forward a bid for Eric Hipwood as a tall. And failing those guys. I really like Ryan Clarke (Eastern Ranges midfielder) who is a super athlete with his running - speed/endurance/agility combination, but then class of ball use and high production and excellent scoreboard impact. Ryan Clarke is something like a more productive Jonothon O'Rourke to give a feel for the type of game he offers.

Knightmare what you think of Marsh’s Development as he has come a Hell of a Long Way since being drafted in the 5th round of the 2013 Draft?

Marsh has been excellent and a surprise by any standard with his rate of development. He went from a raw but athletic, inconsistent forward who couldn't kick to save himself. So a really good and AFL standard key defender who should next season establish himself as a regular best 22 player.
He has clearly put in the work, and it's showing. The more games he gets at AFL level, as we saw at VFL level. The better he'll get. And once he has 40 games under his belt. Watch out!

As soon as next season I see our three best backmen being Williams, Scharenberg and Marsh. A very young trio, but they're the three who I can see carrying us, with Langdon also young and being another productive element of that back six.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

There are some good key position players in this draft. But those key forwards projected to go around/near our first round selection I do not rate. Weideman who some speak about as being a top 10 pick I regard as a second round selection. Harry McKay I view as a late first round selection. So if we retain that pick it's all about going best available. That may be putting in a bid for Ben Keays or otherwise probably taking Charlie Curnow.

In the 10-15 range again I'd be bidding on Keays for starters. If pick Charlie Curnow if there. I'd consider putting forward a bid for Eric Hipwood as a tall. And failing those guys. I really like Ryan Clarke (Eastern Ranges midfielder) who is a super athlete with his running - speed/endurance/agility combination, but then class of ball use and high production and excellent scoreboard impact. Ryan Clarke is something like a more productive Jonothon O'Rourke to give a feel for the type of game he offers.



Marsh has been excellent and a surprise by any standard with his rate of development. He went from a raw but athletic, inconsistent forward who couldn't kick to save himself. So a really good and AFL standard key defender who should next season establish himself as a regular best 22 player.
He has clearly put in the work, and it's showing. The more games he gets at AFL level, as we saw at VFL level. The better he'll get. And once he has 40 games under his belt. Watch out!

As soon as next season I see our three best backmen being Williams, Scharenberg and Marsh. A very young trio, but they're the three who I can see carrying us, with Langdon also young and being another productive element of that back six.

Good rounded comments.
I really do hope we have Scharenberg up and running, he should be terrific.
I'm also hoping we get to see the best if freeman as well, he is meant to have great dash and elite running talent, oh and good with the footy