News Collingwood's Best 22 - Herald Sun Predictions

[Knightmare]

Some player are done and dusted before 30 and some go much longer.. I seriously doubt Geelong had a management program that would extend players careers by years.. that kind of thing is more genetic than environmental..


but hey what do I know

It's not all Geelong. Sydney likewise have a knack of having their players continue producing into their 30s without injury.
Look at how long Brett Kirk and Jude Bolton were in the league. They were both productive until the end. Adam Goodes while injured last year is turning 34. Until last year injuries weren't an issue and he's still productive. Ryan O'Keefe is turns 33 in a few days. He hasn't shown signs of slowing down and he's playing as good as ever.

So clubs can help the players extend their careers when you look at the sheer quantity of guys at particular clubs who do it. And Collingwood with guys like Josh Fraser and Alan Didak breaking down in their mid-late 20s despite their notable talent by position at least to this point puts us among the worse clubs in extending the careers of our veterans.
Let's hope we can change that trend and extend the careers of Swan and Ball into their mid 30s and have them continue playing productive football because to this point we haven't had guys in their 30s maintaining their best football or staying healthy as we saw in 2010 with the downfall of many veterans and then those who were in their mid to late 20s in that 2010 premiership team almost all declining and being the major reasons why our list is no longer of premiership relevance beyond our gameplan which doesn't suit our personnel.

 

[Scodog10]

Without having stats on Seedsman in 1v1s going off what I've seen I haven't noticed him get outbodied in 1v1 contests during the year whereas you'd see as one example Maxwell time after time continue to get nudged out of the contest and beaten in almost all 1v1s.

Seedsman isn't a muscly build but he's hasn't looked exposed in the contest to this point at senior level. I'd struggle to name anyone who has taken advantage of him in the contest to this point and I wouldn't be afraid if he was isolated deep assuming he's not against a key forward, though with the rebound he provides you'd still look to play him higher 90% of the time anyway.

I think that has much to do with our ability to orchestrate good match ups for him in 2013. With Shaw gone and Toovey likely to take time to get back to his best I suspect that early in 2014 Seedsman will be expected to fill Shaw's 2013 role so we'll know where he stands soon enough.

On the whole I hope my doubts are unfounded because if he proves a good 1v1 defender a back line consisting of the below line up can take us into contention:

FB: Williams, Brown, Toovey
HBF: Seedsman, Keeffe, Scharanberg

The 7th defender would depend largely on matchups a smaller opponent brings Sinclair into contention and a bigger opponent brings Goldsack into it. With the midfield predominantly sorted it leaves us just a L Thomas, Walters or Betts style goalkicking forward away from having the complete line up IMO. Perhaps that's Martin otherwise we'll have to find one over the next off season or two to cash in on Cloke's dominance.

 

[Hinequarters]

It's not all Geelong. Sydney likewise have a knack of having their players continue producing into their 30s without injury.
Look at how long Brett Kirk and Jude Bolton were in the league. They were both productive until the end. Adam Goodes while injured last year is turning 34. Until last year injuries weren't an issue and he's still productive. Ryan O'Keefe is turns 33 in a few days. He hasn't shown signs of slowing down and he's playing as good as ever.

It's a compelling argument when you put it like that but who is to blame if what you say is true? Malthouse? Butters?

 

[Manic Magpie]

Without having stats on Seedsman in 1v1s going off what I've seen I haven't noticed him get outbodied in 1v1 contests during the year whereas you'd see as one example Maxwell time after time continue to get nudged out of the contest and beaten in almost all 1v1s.

Seedsman isn't a muscly build but he's hasn't looked exposed in the contest to this point at senior level. I'd struggle to name anyone who has taken advantage of him in the contest to this point and I wouldn't be afraid if he was isolated deep assuming he's not against a key forward, though with the rebound he provides you'd still look to play him higher 90% of the time anyway.

Blaze rates Seedsman defensively in the bottom 5 players while you say you have not ever seen him outbodied in 1v1 contest. Who is most correct? There is a vast gulf between the opinions of you two posters. Are there any stats available which might support either view? Is he one of the best or worst defenders in our line up?

 

[Scodog10]

Blaze rates Seedsman defensively in the bottom 5 players while you say you have not ever seen him outbodied in 1v1 contest. Who is most correct? There is a vast gulf between the opinions of you two posters. Are there any stats available which might support either view? Is he one of the best or worst defenders in our line up?

Champion Data has access to 1v1 contest results and has released some this off season (Reid won the highest percentage of I50 contests league wide in 2013). As to who is more likely to be correct I know who I'd be backing in even though I'm not as convinced myself.

 

[piedpiper32]

Which stopping jobs in 2013 enabled you to form this opinion? I like what Seedsman brings to the table, however of all our regular defenders in 2013 he is the one I would have immediately taken to the goalsquare if given the match up.

He isn't what I'd consider a marking threat (of his 100 in 2013 only 11 were contested), he runs at just over 4.5 contested possessions per game so he loves to get into space and it nullifies his main strength in rebounding. Given the option of Toovey in 2014 that would somewhat counteract that goalsquare threat, but I still have my doubts especially if pitted against a top 4 opponent who are all choc full of offensive weapons.

Don't get me wrong the improvement is definitely there (there's no way I'd have considered him a legitimate defensive option after 2012), but I just don't see it to your level of confidence.

Being a good rebounding defender doesn't mean having to win a ton of contested possessions or being the initiator of the turnover. Often it means someone else is getting the contested ball or mark, then gets it off to a Seedsman type who knows how to get into space and can be more damaging on the outside with run and carry and long and fast kicks. According to AFL.com Seedsman actually averaged 5.2 contested possessions in 2013. Heath Shaw was just a fraction more at 5.4. Also Shaw and Seedsman both averaged the same contested marks per game at 0.5.

 

[Knightmare]

I think that has much to do with our ability to orchestrate good match ups for him in 2013. With Shaw gone and Toovey likely to take time to get back to his best I suspect that early in 2014 Seedsman will be expected to fill Shaw's 2013 role so we'll know where he stands soon enough.

On the whole I hope my doubts are unfounded because if he proves a good 1v1 defender a back line consisting of the below line up can take us into contention:

FB: Williams, Brown, Toovey
HBF: Seedsman, Keeffe, Scharanberg

The 7th defender would depend largely on matchups a smaller opponent brings Sinclair into contention and a bigger opponent brings Goldsack into it. With the midfield predominantly sorted it leaves us just a L Thomas, Walters or Betts style goalkicking forward away from having the complete line up IMO. Perhaps that's Martin otherwise we'll have to find one over the next off season or two to cash in on Cloke's dominance.

The backline situation will make good viewing. The side you have listed above is my predicted end of season best team and the unit I'd ultimately look to go forward with into the future.

As a 7th defender option while he hasn't been mentioned as few know much about him being one of our recent selections and a late pick but Tom Langdon is one I'd strongly consider as that option and I feel his game if it continues developing as rapidly as it has these past couple of seasons can sooner rather than later match up favourably against our other depth options such as Sinclair, Oxley, Maxwell and Goldsack.

With Langdon he's a nice height, excellent user of the ball, excellent accumulator. Another effective reboudner. Can push up the ground and provide some versatility. Relatively good athletically. He's not the shutdown player Toovey or Williams are but I feel he can be a better stopper than Jordan Russell/Nick Maxwell among many others we've seen before him of that more accumulating and rebounding first mentality.

A crumber would be nice to have but with the way our forward half functions I'd almost say it's one component not necessary to winning in our structure. With the way our forwardline works it's primarily kick to Cloke and then it's either mark or mark against with few if any balls going to ground or having the opportunity to go to ground. This is due to he's sheer contested marking power in the contest and when he doesn't grab it then it's likely due to a 3rd man coming in for the intercept mark as a help defender. It's just such a key forward focused forwardline where it's a great situation for Cloke and Reid to present and be the go to guys but for any other options it's difficult to be a factor, particularly I imagine given the limited balls going to ground.

Long term I see the need as being the next franchise level key forward/s. It's always the hardest task and with Cloke and all other key forward options 26+ years of age it's the primary list concern.
But from a short term standpoint having an elite general defender and wingman would help our team most. Our team is so outside focused yet we have so few quality penetrators such as Shannon Hurn or Lewis Jetta who respectively on a back flank and wing would be the perfect list fits as we lack those types of talents specifically.

 

[Knightmare]

It's a compelling argument when you put it like that but who is to blame if what you say is true? Malthouse? Butters?

The blame could be any number of factors.

Since the inclusion of Nathan Buckley the veterans in the main have felt unsettled. Maybe it's motivation. Maybe their bodies are wearing down. But under Nathan while he's improving the young talent it's that one thing that has fallen off most significantly since 2010 with so few of those 25+ year olds of the time of any relevance to our list anymore which from a win now standpoint has obviously hurt us.

It could also come down to conditioning. Perhaps Butters and his program specifically for those veterans was not perfect. Perhaps the bodies of the veterans didn't like the altitude training. I don't have a strong enough knowledge about the sports science side of the game to make any calls on the contribution of Butters in this specifically.

My suspicion while you can never quite know for sure is that it's a combination physical and motivation with many of our veterans not as overly motivated as the Geelong and Sydney veterans from year to year seem to come across.

With further observation over time perhaps exactly what the issue is may become more evident but it's something the club certainly need to look at. Particularly with our current veterans - Swan and Ball most notable are turning 30 this year and being such productive and critical players you want to keep them productive and help them extend their playing careers as long as possible.

 

[Gone Critical]

The blame could be any number of factors.

Since the inclusion of Nathan Buckley the veterans in the main have felt unsettled. Maybe it's motivation. Maybe their bodies are wearing down. But under Nathan while he's improving the young talent it's that one thing that has fallen off most significantly since 2010 with so few of those 25+ year olds of the time of any relevance to our list anymore which from a win now standpoint has obviously hurt us.

It could also come down to conditioning. Perhaps Butters and his program specifically for those veterans was not perfect. Perhaps the bodies of the veterans didn't like the altitude training. I don't have a strong enough knowledge about the sports science side of the game to make any calls on the contribution of Butters in this specifically.

My suspicion while you can never quite know for sure is that it's a combination physical and motivation with many of our veterans not as overly motivated as the Geelong and Sydney veterans from year to year seem to come across.

With further observation over time perhaps exactly what the issue is may become more evident but it's something the club certainly need to look at. Particularly with our current veterans - Swan and Ball most notable are turning 30 this year and being such productive and critical players you want to keep them productive and help them extend their playing careers as long as possible.

KM always be wary of reading too much into anecdotal evidence. It is a long way from proven that there is any real difference in longevity between players at the clubs mentioned. In particular their is no statistically significant evidence that the different club cultures, conditioning techniques or other club related factors are involved.

Anecdotal evidence has been misused in science and medicine forever, often unintentionally, and has always been the calling card of snake oil salesmen and charlatans. There are so many variables and biases involved is assessing this factors along with an extremely small sample size to make the discussion interesting but far from compelling. It's really a question that can't be answered satisfactorily.

 

[Scodog10]

Being a good rebounding defender doesn't mean having to win a ton of contested possessions or being the initiator of the turnover. Often it means someone else is getting the contested ball or mark, then gets it off to a Seedsman type who knows how to get into space and can be more damaging on the outside with run and carry and long and fast kicks. According to AFL.com Seedsman actually averaged 5.2 contested possessions in 2013. Heath Shaw was just a fraction more at 5.4. Also Shaw and Seedsman both averaged the same contested marks per game at 0.5.

Of course it doesn't, but it does help us get a better gauge of his performances 1v1 which ATM are somewhat unproven.

For mine he came a helluva long way in 2013, but would need to go at about 66-33 contested v uncontested (I'd say that's as good a gauge as any of a players 1v1 ability) Seedsman ran at roughly 75-25 in 2013 which for mine is a little too uncontested to really get much of a gauge of his 1v1 ability. He's improving though so he has the capacity to get there. Give him an extra 5 possessions per game and there's every chance he gets to that Birchall level which would be the ultimate goal.

With Shaw it makes for interesting reading because for mine Shaw's 2013 was relatively poor by his standards. I thought that the whole "playing deeper" tag was overblown as well so his uncontested ball wasn't as low as what some thought. The Heath Shaw I saw in 2013 just stopped taking the game on like he once did.

Lastly with 3 inches on Shaw, Seedsman's build (gangly long limbed) and Shaw having his worst marking season since cementing his place in the side IMO its a mediocre return for him to average as many contested marks as Shaw. Again though he's young, can certainly improve and no doubt will.

 

[blaze036]

I heard the same about Ben Johnson and Alan Toovey early in their careers too. Cant kick, wont make it, trade bait, lalala.

Theres no guarantees in footy but Seedsmans run and carry is a valuable asset in modern footy. The defensive waeknesses you mention are common amongst younger players. It takes time. (Edit...not that I neccessarily agree with you that he is weak defensively...havent noticed it myself).

I never said Seedsmen can't kick, won't make it or is trade bait.

Just he is a bit overrated and will have a real battle to get in the best 22 next year.

Wouldn't surprise me if he improved into a good player as he has shown good improvement over the years, just isn't that great at the moment.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Just he is a bit overrated and will have a real battle to get in the best 22 next year.

I'd guess most Pies supporters rank him about 18-25 so even those that rate him agree he will have to fight for a start this year. I think you overrrate how much overrated he is.

 

[Jonno94]

I never said Seedsmen can't kick, won't make it or is trade bait.

Just he is a bit overrated and will have a real battle to get in the best 22 next year.

Wouldn't surprise me if he improved into a good player as he has shown good improvement over the years, just isn't that great at the moment.

Still better than Mooney.

 

[Knightmare]

KM always be wary of reading too much into anecdotal evidence. It is a long way from proven that there is any real difference in longevity between players at the clubs mentioned. In particular their is no statistically significant evidence that the different club cultures, conditioning techniques or other club related factors are involved.

Anecdotal evidence has been misused in science and medicine forever, often unintentionally, and has always been the calling card of snake oil salesmen and charlatans. There are so many variables and biases involved is assessing this factors along with an extremely small sample size to make the discussion interesting but far from compelling. It's really a question that can't be answered satisfactorily.

It's something I also would like with further time to look further into.

On longevity though I feel strongly that in the right program it can be improved and up to this point given our lack of veteran production and so many bodies broken down it suggests that we have not yet optimised our practices.

I look at other sports. The NBA for example and the Phoenix Suns while their franchise from a list management standpoint has mostly been poor these past 8/9 seasons they do some incredible things with their veterans. They keep their veterans healthy into their late 30s, consistently have among the lowest injury rates in the league and have proven time and again that they can bring veterans into their program and get them healthier and more productive than they've been on their previous teams.

The Suns have relatively unique practices from an injury prevention standpoint and have worked out a unique system which while it doesn't completely prevent injuries has none the less shown with a significant frequency that their program in this regard is superior to that of the next closest franchise with what they do with veterans.

As case studies look at the numbers of Jermaine O'Neal who played the 2012/13 season with the Suns. He averaged per 36minutes as a "finished thanks to injury" 34 year old the best rebounding numbers experienced since the 2000/2001 season. His best block numbers since the 2006/2007 season and equal second most since his career. And his best points per game since the 2009/2010 season. He also played in the 2012/2013 season more games than in 2010/2011 combined.

Michael Redd in the 2011/2012 season. Similar story as O'Neal as a guy who similarly was older than 30 and had his career destroyed through injury. He experienced his scoring numbers since the 2008/2009 season going in 2011/2012 to a 19.5 points per game average up from 11.8 the year before and 15.7 in 2009/2010 to play more than double the games he had played in the previous two seasons.

Grant Hill. At his previous team had seasons of: 4, 14, 29, 67, 21 and 65 games. Arrived at Phoenix as a 35 year old and plays: 70, 82, 81, 80 and 49 games remaining a productive player.

Steve Nash is the next example. He played from 2004-2005 season to the 2011/11 season with Phoenix. In that time he played no less than 62 games with his final season with the Suns coming as a 37 year old. He moved to the Lakers last season and played only 50 games and this season has only to this point appeared in 6 games with nearly half the season complete. Additionally his numbers despite playing under his favourite coach who he also played the majority of his career for in Phoenix declined sharply. Going from a low of 9.7 assists per game with every other season 10+ assists per game with the Suns going to the Lakers for less than 7 assists per game and less than 5 per game this season.

It's incredible what they have done as a franchise with players of such age. In my view it's overwhelming evidence that what they do makes a difference. And I can't help thinking that Collingwood and all teams in the AFL could improve in the injury prevention/extending careers from both a long term durability and long term production standpoint.
But looking at when the Collingwood players are declining and losing best 22 relevance Collingwood for the past 6/7 years haven't performed at all well. We develop youth as quick as any but keeping guys productive and extending their careers isn't something anyone could argue we do well at.

Practices can always be improved. From the medical side. To the coaching side. To the player development side. To the recruiting side. You just have to continue looking at who does things better and looking into what they do better and then learn from it and implement those practices into your what you're doing.
It doesn't always have to mean wholesale changes. But certainly tweaks are almost always, particularly in football necessary for advancement.

 

[Manic Magpie]

KM always be wary of reading too much into anecdotal evidence. It is a long way from proven that there is any real difference in longevity between players at the clubs mentioned. In particular their is no statistically significant evidence that the different club cultures, conditioning techniques or other club related factors are involved.

Anecdotal evidence has been misused in science and medicine forever, often unintentionally, and has always been the calling card of snake oil salesmen and charlatans. There are so many variables and biases involved is assessing this factors along with an extremely small sample size to make the discussion interesting but far from compelling. It's really a question that can't be answered satisfactorily.

But at least Knightmare has the balls to offer answers to difficult questions. It's not like he just came up yesterday with the belief that Geelong and Sydney get more miles per engine than us. It is quite some time since he analysed our squad and concluded that our 25+ age players were running on the spot then falling by the wayside before truly entering their 30's. Knightmare is certainly no 'snake oil saleman or charlatan'. If he thinks that anecdotal evidence makes a good read, that's fine by me.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Personally I thing its genetics. I never expected players like Fraser and Didak to go much past 30. They just dont have the bodies for it. Cant see why some of our current crop cant have very long careers into their mid 30s.

 

[blaze036]

Still better than Mooney.

Well that's pretty off topic

 

[Robroy22]

I'm not a basketball officianado KM so may I ask how the Sun's have been performing whilst their Older or recycled players have been maintaining the rage?

 

[Quicky]

They really go out on a limb with these predictions don't they.

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not a basketball officianado KM so may I ask how the Sun's have been performing whilst their Older or recycled players have been maintaining the rage?

Their performance from 2004-2010 Phoenix was among the better 2-6 teams consistently in a 30 team competition without being the eventual premier.

In the 2010/2011 season they had a record of 40/42 and in 2011/2012 season 33/33 with their only poor season coming last year in 2012/2013 with 25/57 though this year despite an attempt at tanking they have a positive record with a 22/17 record to the surprise of everyone with what is a surprising emergence of enthusiastic youth.

Their drop after 2010 was largely due to the their losing of their star franchise player and then Steve Nash their next best in 2012 being the larger reason for their worst recent record in recent times of 25/57.

I'm not suggesting all their practices are the best. They drafted well but continued to trade almost all picks if not all for veterans which didn't land them a championship. But what they do from an injury prevision/recovery/helping veterans stay healthy and productive is notable and without equal in the NBA anyway. I'm sure some others will find some equivalent teams in other sporting competitions but for those medical students out there I'd recommend if you have some spare time to look into some of the stuff they do.

Just today I was learning about their use of cryo therapy chambers as a way to most effectively aid recovery(see youtube: ).
Their techniques for injury prevision are also worth a good search and just as interesting if not more so to learn about.

 

[Quicky]

Which begs the question, what has happened to brave sports journalism? It's all so uninspired and limp. It provides such a beige representation of our game. None of it captures the feeling and love we feel for the game and it is a damn shame. I would love to have someone with the passion and charisma of a Johnny Warren providing a voice for the sport.

 

[Knightmare]

Which begs the question, what has happened to brave sports journalism? It's all so uninspired and limp. It provides such a beige representation of our game. None of it captures the feeling and love we feel for the game and it is a damn shame. I would love to have someone with the passion and charisma of a Johnny Warren providing a voice for the sport.

The team selection lacks a bit of Kirk Ugle in the ruck doesn't it?

I feel you Q.

What I don't like with the sporting media is their focus on issues and the limited ability to tell us anything we don't know. There just isn't the focus nor interest in the football from the media it seems. In the most part it's just exposing issues and working to expose issues within clubs and about the people within their walls. It doesn't breed interest in the game in the slightest.

It's a shame really and as a result I rarely read AFL related articles.

I'd much rather reading an expert opinion by someone who can educate me on the game. I read to fill that thirst for knowledge. Not get bogged down in the in rubbish going on, on the side. Too much politics and not enough football.
That's why I enjoy looking to other team sports over the Summer. The NBA. NHL. College basketball. Always so much to learn and bits of knowledge that can be applied to the AFL including list management and the draft. Additionally many of their reporters are fantastic to listen to (Sam Smith on nba.com/bulls I always find an excellent read) and their entertainment shows while often agenda driven for those of you who watch Skip Bayless is still very much entertaining which is the whole point of it.

It's a shame the AFL doesn't have that same quality of reporters in the media or AFL focused shows in Australia because the articles and even in some cases the entertainment shows for these sports is just on another level overseas.

 

[HappyRed]

I think Seedsmen is overrated amongst our supporters

Hopefully your pleasantly surprised.

 

[JA27]

Full Back: Nathan Brown
Back Pocket: Marley Williams
Back Pocket: Alan Toovey (early rounds Ben Sinclair)

Centre Half-Back: Lachlan Keefe (some kick outs)
3rd Tall Defender: Matthew Schranberg (most of the season Nick Maxwell)
Half Back Flank: Steele Sidebottom (kick outs)
Half Back Flank: Heritier Lumumba

Ruck: Brodie Grundy
Centre: Scott Pendlebury
Centre: Luke Ball
Tagger: Brent Macaffer

Wing: Dayne Beams
Wing: Dane Swan

Centre Half Forward: Travis Cloke
3rd Tall Forward/Relief Ruck: Jesse White (some weeks Jarrod Witts)
Half Forward Flank: Sam Dwyer (leading goal assists in 2013 but Alex Fasolo to push hard)

Full Forward: Ben Reid
Forward Pocket: Jamie Elliot

Interchange: Taylor Adams
Interchange: Josh Thomas (or Tyson Goldsack for more versatility)
Interchange: Paul Seedsman (or Jarryd Blair for more defensive pressure)

Subsitute Player: Clinton Young (Ben Kennedy/Kyle Martin/Tim Broomhead/Nathan Freeman/Marty Clarke)

 

[soreplums]

My brother ( hawks supporter) had a casual coffee with Luke Ball. Said he looks massive- not an inch if fat on him and even more cut than what he was when he arrived from st.kilda. Looking at Fasolo and a few others, it seems that there has been a focus on getting bigger and stronger this year.