Connecting the dots - Are we on the brink of calamity?

[Power Raid]

Wouldn't that be almost impossible to enforce?

No, it wouldn't be hard to implement.

London has a system that works for them, with the leases. Theirs is clumsey as it is simply a lease without targeted outcomes other than income.

I would imagine we could do the same thing but rather than leases, we would have a "strategic" property tax that delivers strategic outcomes.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Notice anything odd about the following chart?

Via Zero Hedge

 

[Smiling Buddha]

And some interesting news from China...

Negative equity, usually associated with Ireland or Florida, is a phenomena almost never seen in the 30-year history of private property ownership in China. Guan and the 700 other buyers in the “Noble Garden” development are in this situation because New Century began slashing prices on March 21, in a bid to clear excess stock.

Overnight it cut the price of 300 unsold apartments in their complex by 30 per cent.

“The apartment across the hall from mine is now selling for 600,000 yuan ($105,000) less than I paid,” says Guan. “The developer needs quick money. We think the company is in trouble.”

...

Either way, someone is facing a sizeable loss, be it the developer, banks or buyers. The protesters estimate the 700 families who bought into the Noble Garden development in early 2012 are down a combined 300 million yuan. And that’s just one development in a single Chinese city.

http://www.afr.com/p/world/guarding_the_global_economy_biggest_4ZaLHtqeG8IKJdGUZ8FJqO

The big megacities seem to be doing fine but the next rung down are looking grim.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

World financial strife aside, there are at least 3 potential fronts for war. Each with world implications.

Japan vs China and North Korea

UN vs Russia in Crimea

USA vs Syria and Iran

Surely something has to give. The media are drumming up the prospects of war and I believe it's only a matter of time.

 

[Ripper]

World financial strife aside, there are at least 3 potential fronts for war. Each with world implications.

Japan vs China and North Korea

UN vs Russia in Crimea

USA vs Syria and Iran

Surely something has to give. The media are drumming up the prospects of war and I believe it's only a matter of time.

It all comes back to financial strife

 

[Yellow Feathers]

It all comes back to financial strife

True. I wasn't dismissing that as the cause... Rather that the pawns have been placed and now we're just waiting for something to spark.

 

[Long Live HFC]

And some interesting news from China...

http://www.afr.com/p/world/guarding_the_global_economy_biggest_4ZaLHtqeG8IKJdGUZ8FJqO

The big megacities seem to be doing fine but the next rung down are looking grim.

while this has been happening for a while, i agree that the debt crisis in china would be the closest to the "brinK" of "calamity" compared to the other suggestions in here.

It all comes back to financial strife

obviously US concerns here have nothing to do with the reserve status of the dollar, and everything to do with sanctions against iran due to their nuclear program. zerohedge as usual spouting bollocks.

 

[bkozican]

Dont have the time at the moment but thread is bookmarked. Looks like a great read OP. Will come back later

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Via Zero Hedge. As they say, this time it had better be different.

LinkedIn market cap: $20b. Net profit in 2013: $26m.
Amazon market cap: $145b. Net profit in 2013: $274m.
Netflix market cap: $20b. Net profit in 2013: $112m.

For those who don't remember the dotcom bubble, here's a brief rundown:

1) Around 1997-2000, people invested way too much money into tech-based companies that simply didn't make the profits to justify such investment.
2) This is because they were essentially buying into the stock for its shareprice gain, not dividends. A bubble.
3) Eventually the bubble did what all bubbles do and popped.
4) This hurt the US economy so badly that the Fed dropped interest rates to ridiculous lows.
5) These low interest rates meant lots more money made its way into the economy.
6) Much of this new money found its way into the housing bubble...
7) A few years later the housing bubble popped and this crisis precipitated the GFC.
8) Since the GFC, Fed rates have been at about 0% and they've been 'quantitatively easing' (printing money).
9) Much of that new money has found its way into tech-based stocks like those above.

To illustrate, take a look at this chart:

Now, would anybody out there like to guess what comes next?

 

[clogged]

Notice anything odd about the following chart?

Via Zero Hedge

Shouldn't be calculated linearly. What was the year-on-year percentage increase?

 

[Lach72]

http://www.watoday.com.au/business/...ing-sown-for-the-next-gfc-20140407-368cb.html

The best way to avoid another GFC is to ensure banks can fail without infecting the entire system. That means making them smaller. Trouble is, 'too big to fail' banks are now even bigger.

According to APRA, in March 2008 the four biggest banks controlled 67 per cent of total bank assets. By December 2013 that figure had increased to 78.4 per cent.

In the United States in 1990, the five largest banks accounted for less than 10 per cent of total industry assets. Now they control 44 per cent.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/inte...he-next-gfc-20140407-368cb.html#ixzz2yFdDormp

 

[Lach72]

Via Zero Hedge. As they say, this time it had better be different.

LinkedIn market cap: $20b. Net profit in 2013: $26m.
Amazon market cap: $145b. Net profit in 2013: $274m.
Netflix market cap: $20b. Net profit in 2013: $112m.

For those who don't remember the dotcom bubble, here's a brief rundown:

1) Around 1997-2000, people invested way too much money into tech-based companies that simply didn't make the profits to justify such investment.
2) This is because they were essentially buying into the stock for its shareprice gain, not dividends. A bubble.
3) Eventually the bubble did what all bubbles do and popped.
4) This hurt the US economy so badly that the Fed dropped interest rates to ridiculous lows.
5) These low interest rates meant lots more money made its way into the economy.
6) Much of this new money found its way into the housing bubble...
7) A few years later the housing bubble popped and this crisis precipitated the GFC.
8) Since the GFC, Fed rates have been at about 0% and they've been 'quantitatively easing' (printing money).
9) Much of that new money has found its way into tech-based stocks like those above.

To illustrate, take a look at this chart:

Now, would anybody out there like to guess what comes next?

Do we have anything similar in the ASX?

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Do we have anything similar in the ASX?

Not that I am aware of, but the point I made earlier in the thread is that our banks are so highly leveraged that we cannot afford a downturn of any kind. All it would take is for US dotcom MkII to pop and it is good night Australia.

 

[Long Live HFC]

All it would take is for US dotcom MkII to pop and it is good night Australia.

why would "US dotcom MkII" be worse and qualitatively different in its effects to the GFC?

 

[Lach72]

Not that I am aware of, but the point I made earlier in the thread is that our banks are so highly leveraged that we cannot afford a downturn of any kind. All it would take is for US dotcom MkII to pop and it is good night Australia.

But would it the downturn here be that severe if there the ratio of price to earnings ratio is not out whack?

 

[Smiling Buddha]

why would "US dotcom MkII" be worse and qualitatively different in its effects to the GFC?

All explained in my detailed posts earlier in the thread. Read and learn.

 

[Long Live HFC]

All explained in my detailed posts earlier in the thread. Read and learn.

i've read your posts earlier in this thread. it doesn't answer my question. specifically, what has changed to such a degree in aussie banks since 2008 that makes any future crisis even worse than the GFC? i'm really not being difficult, it's an honest question.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

If you have read my earlier posts in this thread and still cannot see the reason why our financial-economic system cannot afford a serious downturn then nothing I say now will change your understanding.

 

[Long Live HFC]

that's not what i asked though. i wish to know why, in your opinion, any future downturn would be qualitatively worse than the GFC, based upon financial changes since that last "calamity".

 

[Smiling Buddha]

It's all there, dude. If you do not end your ceaseless redundant questioning I will have to put you on ignore.

 

[Long Live HFC]

3. Inability to answer questions. For people who loudly advertise their determination to the principle of questioning everything, they're pretty poor at answering direct questions from sceptics about the claims that they make

7. Inability to withdraw. It's a rare day indeed when a conspiracy theorist admits that a claim they have made has turned out to be without foundation, whether it be the overall claim itself or any of the evidence produced to support it. Moreover they have a liking (see 3. above) for the technique of avoiding discussion of their claims by "swamping" - piling on a whole lot more material rather than respond to the objections sceptics make to the previous lot.

 

[mdizzle]

Just finished reading the whole thread, found it very interesting apart from the posts by Long Live HFC which I instead found rather amusing. Thanks for sharing your research Smiling Buddha.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Another update on the increasnig inequality in America.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-03/top-tenth-of-1-percenters-reaps-all-the-riches

These mah*ers know how to graft.

 

[Long Live HFC]

Just finished reading the whole thread, found it very interesting apart from the posts by Long Live HFC which I instead found rather amusing. Thanks for sharing your research Smiling Buddha.

how "interesting" will you find it when there's no US civil war, WW3, or aussie financial collapse?

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Yeah, I know, Alex Jones.

Thought this article was on point though.

http://www.infowars.com/is-the-us-or-the-world-coming-to-an-end/

Pretty much how I see it. The US collapses peacefully and we no longer have a world super-power. Or, most like IMO, they go down fighting.

That's without considering that this all could have been engineered by the players behind the scenes and everything is going to plan.