Connecting the dots - Are we on the brink of calamity?

[Power Raid]

You dont need a trial if there are signatures.

I think court processes are a little more complicated than that but sure, if you think that would be an appropriate precedence

 

[Smiling Buddha]

you know zerohedge

Again, discrediting the source rather than the information itself. Anybody who reads that article will find links to a number of sources including mainstream outlets and journals.

actually power raid explained to you that three simultaneous meltdowns could require relatively similar amounts of cleanup as a single.

Wrong. He asserted it, without supplying any evidence to support the assertion.

 

[Long Live HFC]

Again, discrediting the source rather than the information itself.

says the guy that does practically nothing BUT whinge and whine about the gov/MSM sources zerohedge is s**t and one of the reasons you're so panicky about so many issues is because you swallow what they feed you without having the knowledge and experience to know any better.

Wrong. He asserted it, without supplying any evidence to support the assertion.

fine, he asserted it. given the amount of radiation we know is leaking from the site, and the overall good quality of power raid's posts and analysis thus far, im willing to take him at his word. it's fine if you're not, but what are you doing about that exactly? if it's such a big deal why aren't you finding out whether he's correct? or are you just complaining for the sake of it?

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Rhetoric: 6/10.
Substance: 0/10.
Originality: 2/10.

You're hitting new lows bro. Time for a reassignment methinks. Tell the boss to make the next guy pose as a Bombers fan. He might have some luck sucking me in to footy debates

 

[Long Live HFC]

3. Inability to answer questions. For people who loudly advertise their determination to the principle of questioning everything, they're pretty poor at answering direct questions from sceptics about the claims that they make.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

America's official inflation rate is about 2%, according to government statistics.

But if it were measured the same way it was back in 1990, it would be about 6%.

If measured the same way as it was back in 1980, about 10%.

No surprise given that the printing presses are running hot.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Meanwhile Barack 'Hope and Change' Obama has asked Congress for $500,000,000 to further arm and train Syrian rebels and a cool billion for operations in Eastern Europe.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...eeks-500m-to-fund-moderate-Syrian-rebels.html

It is all coming together.

 

[Power Raid]

That is positive signs for the US

Australia will have to follow that journey soon

 

[Long Live HFC]

Shadowstats’ “stats” are unreliable and nobody (ie businesses or government) use them when dealing with financial issues. If nobody is using them, one has to question their validity.

Up to now, this article has addressed each of the major recent criticisms of the CPI and has argued that those criticisms are based on misunderstandings of the methods used to construct the index. Each of the improvements made to the CPI over the years is based on sound economic theory and years of research by academicians and BLS economists. The methods continue to be reviewed by outside commissions and advisory panels, and they are widely used by statistical agencies of other nations.

This section examines the large quantitative impacts that some writers have attributed to the changes in CPI methodology that have been adopted over the years. One widely cited alternative index is based on an estimate that changes to the CPI since 1983 have lowered its growth rate by at least 7 percentage points per year. The use of the geometric mean alone is stated to have lowered the CPI growth rate by 3 percentage points, and other BLS changes, such as the use of hedonic models and OER, supposedly have lowered the growth rate by an additional 4 percentage points.

Each of these estimates of the impact of BLS changes is inconsistent with the empirical evidence. As noted earlier, the BLS has computed indexes showing that the use of the geometric mean formula has reduced the growth rate of the geometric mean of the CPI by only -0.28 percentage point per year, not 3 percentage points. Also discussed earlier, BLS analyses have shown that if the implementation of hedonic adjustment models since 1999 has had any net downward effect, it is very small. Hedonic adjustment models implemented subsequent to 1983, but prior to 1999, have almost certainly had an upward effect. Among the methodological changes examined in this article, that leaves only the shift to rental equivalence, and it is entirely implausible that its impact could be as large as 4 percentage points per year. Earlier, it was shown that from 1983 to 2007 the CPI for OER rose faster than an alternative index that, like the pre–1983 BLS homeownership index, is based on both house prices and interest rates.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
(this quote is specifically related to shadowstats as referenced in the full article’s bibliography).

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Citing a gov report to defend charges that the gov is fudging the figures. Good one.

 

[Long Live HFC]

Citing a gov report to defend charges that the gov is fudging the figures. Good one.

Well, are you aware of anyone else that has bothered disputing the nonsense from shadowstats? It’s that unimportant nobody cares. If it were accurate, it would be impacting the real world.

If you had read the quote properly you would note that the processes of calculation/revision involve “outside commissions and advisory panels” and research in academia, and the metrics are used the world over. If these numbers are so woefully inaccurate, why do people use them? not just the government, but everyone. Why aren’t say, unions up in arms over massive hidden inflation rates eating away at the purchasing power of their wage agreements?

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Why does everybody use the official statistics? Is that a serious question?

 

[Long Live HFC]

Yes, it is a serious question. If the official statistics are of no use, why use them? why haven’t nations, think tanks, businesses etc started using shadowstats (or similar) when considering economic and financial issues?

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Are you claiming that the only stats used by business are the official ones?

 

[Long Live HFC]

Yes (not necessarily just CPI, there are other inflation measures too, but again, not those approximating shadowstats).
Do you have any evidence that shadowstats’ calculations are accurate? I provided you with an analysis showing why they’re bogus.

 

[Long Live HFC]

What I do disagree with is bad statistical methodology. Shadowstats is built on the belief that the Bureau of Labor Statistics changed their methodology in the 1980s and 1990s, and that if we were using their original methodology the level of inflation would be much higher. Shadowstats presents what they claim to be the original methodology. But Shadowstats is not calculating inflation any differently.They are not using the 1980s or 1990s methodology that they believe would be higher. All Shadowstats is doing is taking the CPI data and adding on an arbitrary constant to make it look like inflation is higher!

…

In fact, according to James Hamilton of Econbrowser, John Williams admitted in 2008 that his numbers are just inflated CPI data:

Last month I called attention to an analysis by BLS researchers John Greenlees and Robert McClelland of some of the claims by John Williams of Shadowstats about the consequences for reported inflation of assorted technical decisions made by the BLS. Williams asked me to update with a link to his response to the BLS study. I am happy to do so, along with offering some further observations of my own.
You can follow the link to Shadowstats’ response to Greenlees and McClelland and judge for yourself, but my impression is that the response is more philosophical than quantitative. In a separate phone conversation, Williams further clarified the Shadowstats methodology. Here’s what John said to me: “I’m not going back and recalculating the CPI. All I’m doing is going back to the government’s estimates of what the effect would be and using that as an ad factor to the reported statistics.”

Price changes and inflation are important topics, and constructing alternate measures of inflation is a worthwhile activity. Researchers at MIT have tried to do this with their Billion Prices Project, which measures price trends across a much, much larger range of products and locations than CPI:

http://azizonomics.com/2013/06/01/the-trouble-with-shadowstats/

The pic and page show MIT’s analysis was in line with the CPI calculations.

Here’s a nice comparison which shows the house price comparisons between CPI and shadowstats. Which one looks more accurate?

http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/03/shadow-stats-debunked-part-i.html

When housing prices outpace inflation, real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) home prices rise. When inflation outpaces housing prices, real home prices fall. Shadow Stats claims some pretty high inflation numbers, so it's hard for housing prices to keep up—even in good times. That's why we see the long-term decline in real housing prices shown in the second graph.

 

[Ripper]

If you believe that "all wars are bankers wars" then s**t suddenly got serious on the 15th July.

Treaty for the Establishment of a BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement – Fortaleza, July 15

Saddam was selling oil in Euro's
Gadaffi proposed a gold Dinar

Interesting the in that article is this bit.

In 2002, the prime minister of Malaysia proposed a gold dinar standard for use in the Islamic world.[2]

Kelantan was the first state in the country to introduce the dinar in 2006, which was locally minted. In 2010, it issued new coins, including the dirham, minted in United Arab Emirates by World Islamic Mint.[3] On 25 August 2013 Kelantanese government collected and distributed zakat from people in Kelantanese dinars and dirhams in a public ceremony officiated by Chief Minister Dato Nik Aziz Nik Mat.[4]

The state of Perak followed suit, minting its own dinar and dirham, which was launched in 2011.[5]

Iran has been selling oil to the Chinese and Indians for gold .

 

[Long Live HFC]

care to explain how the BRICS development bank has anything to do with the brink of calamity?

saddam was selling oil for food too, so what?

if you're trying to insinuate that these countries were invaded due to currency concerns, then you really have NFI what you're on about.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Why was Iraq invaded? Weapons of Mass Destruction? lol

Why was Libya toppled? Human Rights Violations? trololol

Give it a rest mate.

 

[vealesy]

Its always money.

 

[Great 2008]

I have no doubt as a passive observer that there has been a determined push to undermine Putin/Russia utilising propaganda. With outgoing into detail there have been a lot of good changes in Russia, however the media seem hell bent on focusing on things that cause affront to Westerners. I find this thread interesting and I also find it interesting that the PM launched straight into Putin when MH17 was shot down. I am sure if the shoe was on the other foot Abbott would have been annoyed with being a branded a murderer by a world leader 2 minutes after the plane had been shot down and no evidence had been gathered.

Abbott was much more circumspect and non-committal on 60 Minutes last night but I think the anti-Russia sentiment and whatever political forces that are driving it, were displayed by Abbott in the heat of the moment.

I think Australia should consider it's alliance with the US very carefully. (Not something I have even slightly considered in the past until now). I have not read this entire thread but I have a long had inkling that the US is in big trouble. I am not suggesting we abandon a long time ally but rather tread carefully.

This treaty recently signed by China and India (with the Russia also in the frame) indicates to me that the US and it's 'war on terror' is losing support and fast.




http://www.spacewar.com/2003/030929014856.yxg7f27e.html

 

[Yellow Feathers]

So now Australia are sending up to 200 armed police and troops to "secure" the site in Ukraine.

Very noble of you, Aussies.

Wouldn't be a covert way of having an Australian armed presence in Ukraine, would it?

http://www.9news.com.au/World/2014/07/26/05/07/Ukraine-could-ratify-Aust-deal-next-week

 

[Unstable]

I have no doubt as a passive observer that there has been a determined push to undermine Putin/Russia utilising propaganda. With outgoing into detail there have been a lot of good changes in Russia, l

Such as? Genuinely interested

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Russia fined $50b by a three-man panel at the Hague?

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...s-russia-to-pay-former-yukos-shareholders-50b

Slowly but surely.

 

[Long Live HFC]

and that's going to lead us to the brink of calamity how?

 

[Catfish Alley]

I can't imagine any big power going to war with Russia. Especially the US who can't afford a thing at the moment. The weather hasn't changed that much since the 40s. Those winters still suck! And then you have China over the other side.