News Contract extensions: Lonergan 2016, Caddy, Duncan 2018

[The rabbi]

So now that Lonergan has signed for two years can we all stop throwing our panties in the air about how we immediately need key defenders?

An immediate need is not so much the problem as "how do we develop the young Generation Next if they are deprived of opportunities for AFL development?"

I will be immensely disappointed if kids like Jansen, Kolodjashnij, Thurlow and Bews (many here could raise others names) are not given a reasonable amount of exposure to AFL. Scott saw a number of kids introduced to AFL in 2011. I would like to see a return to the policy of introducing more kids to AFL and in turn resting older veterans.

 

[Seeds]

An immediate need is not so much the problem as "how do we develop the young Generation Next if they are deprived of opportunities for AFL development?"

I will be immensely disappointed if kids like Jansen, Kolodjashnij, Thurlow and Bews (many here could raise others names) are not given a reasonable amount of exposure to AFL. Scott saw a number of kids introduced to AFL in 2011. I would like to see a return to the policy of introducing more kids to AFL and in turn resting older veterans.

Whilst AFL exposure is important it is way overrated here. You can learn your trade in the reserves. Too much AFL exposure can actually do more damage then good. Look at Kersten. We were crying out all year for them to give one of the young key forwards extended exposure. Kersten played his best game on his debut. Then gradually got worse and worse over the second half of the season. By the time we got to his last month it was getting embarrassing about how poor his form fell away and he would of been far better developing in the VFL. In saying that some players reach a point where moving from the VFL to AFL will enhance their development. Thurlow and Bews are probably at that level now. Kolo and Jansen are still pretty young and may not need to move up yet to keep developing.

In any case this is a different topic to which my initial quote was referring to. Whether we have enough key defenders on our list.

 

[Seeds]

It's going to make the development of the next in line interesting. Taylor won't be playing VFL and neither will Lonergan or Rivers.

Yep and nor should they if there form keeps up. Particularly given there is no one in VFL yet ready to take a key defensive role in the firsts. Next year I think we should be doing some serious development of our key defenders in the reserves to get them ready to start playing AFL in 2016. Another year into Kolo in the reserves with maybe a couple of games in the first if his form warrants it. Play Blicavs in the reserves as the centre half back for atleast half a season and if it works try and bring him in to the AFL side in that position gradually in 2016 (atleast Taylor and Lonergan will both be playing in 2016 so he won't have to take the position permanently until atleast 2017 if he is capable). Delaney may show promise but probably needs a decent amount of games in the reserves before he is ready. Again 2016 should be the time to transition him into the AFL side if all goes well.

 

[The rabbi]

Whilst AFL exposure is important it is way overrated here. You can learn your trade in the reserves. Too much AFL exposure can actually do more damage then good. Look at Kersten. We were crying out all year for them to give one of the young key forwards extended exposure. Kersten played his best game on his debut. Then gradually got worse and worse over the second half of the season. By the time we got to his last month it was getting embarrassing about how poor his form fell away and he would of been far better developing in the VFL. In saying that some players reach a point where moving from the VFL to AFL will enhance their development. Thurlow and Bews are probably at that level now. Kolo and Jansen are still pretty young and may not need to move up yet to keep developing.

In any case this is a different topic to which my initial quote was referring to. Whether we have enough key defenders on our list.

Seeds, are you aware that Kersten's season was cut short by the need for knee surgery?
Have you considered that he was playing for some time under duress due to the knee problem?

 

[FredLeDeux]

Dito Mackie and Enright.

On last season's performances, and especially given his very poor season rating by the MC (barely ahead of the worst senior player in Varcoe), Mackie is a real chance to be in the 2nds; he's much more at risk than Kelly, for instance.

 

[you pick one]

On last season's performances, and especially given his very poor season rating by the MC (barely ahead of the worst senior player in Varcoe), Mackie is a real chance to be in the 2nds; he's much more at risk than Kelly, for instance.

Harsh average 1 possession a game less than his AA nomination in 2013.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Harsh average 1 possession a game less than his AA nomination in 2013.

I thought he had a pretty quiet year, but more importantly the MC thought so, and they have more say than I do. Inexplicable, unfortunate, but true.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Me too!

Which part?

The no facebook or watching the Shield from Cricket Australia website?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Oh gee I hope not.
The guy is a dunce in front of a camera.

Are you referring to him not being captain?

I'd have him favourite to replace Selwood.

 

[you pick one]

I thought he had a pretty quiet year, but more importantly the MC thought so, and they have more say than I do. Inexplicable, unfortunate, but true.

Mackie 137 marks and 428 possessions
Rivers 125 marks and 258 possessions
Lonergan 97 marks and 252 possessions
Taylor 149 marks and 352 possessions
Doesn't look that s**t to me,all played around the same amount of games.

it's not about possessions though, it's being able to remain our 3rd best defender alongside Taylor and Lonergan and he clearly was not.
He got beaten so many times this year and the amount times he was caught holding the ball or had to quickly dish it off in a hurry which saw even more scoring opportunities handed to the opposition was alarming, especially for a bloke who made the interchange bench in the All Australian squad the year previously.

Pathetically slow footed, change is a necessity if we are to go up again next year.

Clearly still our 3rd best tallish defender.

 

[Willo_]

Harsh average 1 possession a game less than his AA nomination in 2013.

It's probably a good example of stats not painting an accurate picture. I felt Mack was well down on his 2013 form this year and I don't tend to pay attention to the stats much, mind you I think he was particularly bad later in the year so that could also just be what is fresher in my mind influencing me

 

[you pick one]

It's probably a good example of stats not painting an accurate picture. I felt Mack was well down on his 2013 form this year and I don't tend to pay attention to the stats much, mind you I think he was particularly bad later in the year so that could also just be what is fresher in my mind influencing me

I think it's also an example of how high they have set the bar over a long period of time,we have been spoilt by the sustained excellence of our boys over the last decade.We may not see a newbe come into the side and pick up the Mackie type numbers of this year in ten years as a HBF,we're harsh judges on big footy.

 

[Willo_]

I think it's also an example of how high they have set the bar over a long period of time,we have been spoilt by the sustained excellence of our boys over the last decade.We may not see a newbe come into the side and pick up the Mackie type numbers of this year in ten years as a HBF,we're harsh judges on big footy.

Completely agree with that as well

 

[Teriyakicat]

Mackie 137 marks and 428 possessions
Rivers 125 marks and 258 possessions
Lonergan 97 marks and 252 possessions
Taylor 149 marks and 352 possessions
Doesn't look that s**t to me,all played around the same amount of games.

Clearly still our 3rd best tallish defender.

He's usually one of our better players disposal-wise, as well. I'll see if I can find that stat- if you don't get to it first, ypo.

Edit: 78.3% DE... Not too shabby...

And ranked 16th in total marks in the league.

 

[catempire]

Duncan and Caddy - unequivocally excellent news.

As I feared when the Bulldogs came sniffing, we've now overcommitted to Lonergan. To be clear, he has been outstanding in recent years including in 2014. However there is simply no need to give a 30 year old a two year contact. I hope this doesn't burn us in 2016.

 

[Willo_]

Duncan and Caddy - unequivocally excellent news.

As I feared when the Bulldogs came sniffing, we've now overcommitted to Lonergan. To be clear, he has been outstanding in recent years including in 2014. However there is simply no need to give a 30 year old a two year contact. I hope this doesn't burn us in 2016.

I hope if he is falling away in 2016 he can go back to the 2s and help them out, just because he is signed hopefully doesn't mean he has to play seniors every week. Develop the young blokes and the older guys can play reserves if they have to.

I hope

 

[catempire]

I hope if he is falling away in 2016 he can go back to the 2s and help them out, just because he is signed hopefully doesn't mean he has to play seniors every week. Develop the young blokes and the older guys can play reserves if they have to.

I hope

Fair point. Given what we know of his character there's no doubt he'd happily go to the VFL if that was what was best for the team.

 

[The rabbi]

On last season's performances, and especially given his very poor season rating by the MC (barely ahead of the worst senior player in Varcoe), Mackie is a real chance to be in the 2nds; he's much more at risk than Kelly, for instance.

And yet the season before he was an All Australian was he not?

 

[The rabbi]

It's probably a good example of stats not painting an accurate picture. I felt Mack was well down on his 2013 form this year and I don't tend to pay attention to the stats much, mind you I think he was particularly bad later in the year so that could also just be what is fresher in my mind influencing me

It is a fairly high bar that was set by his 2013 season. He was an All Australian that year.

I often wonder if our defense is better than it looks. The defense has a lot of pressure put on it because we keep getting thumped in the clearances. Geelong are rated among the cellar dwellers of the competition for clearances.

Edit: In fact a quick check of the AFL stats page has Geelong listed as the lowest at clearances with an average of 34.0 per game. Yes, Melbourne and St.Kilda rated higher. Hawthorn had the highest and won the flag. It is clear where the most attention is needed for Geelong to improve on the last few seasons.

http://www.afl.com.au/stats

 

[catempire]

It is a fairly high bar that was set by his 2013 season. He was an All Australian that year.

I often wonder if our defense is better than it looks. The defense has a lot of pressure put on it because we keep getting thumped in the clearances. Geelong are rated among the cellar dwellers of the competition for clearances.

Edit: In fact a quick check of the AFL stats page has Geelong listed as the lowest at clearances with an average of 34.0 per game. Yes, Melbourne and St.Kilda rated higher. Hawthorn had the highest and won the flag. It is clear where the most attention is needed for Geelong to improve on the last few seasons.

This is a proxy for the effectiveness of a team's defence - percentage of inside 50s conceded where a goal is scored for 2014:

Sydney Swans 20.9%
Fremantle Dockers 22.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos 22.8%
Adelaide Crows 23.8%
Melbourne Demons 24.2%
Essendon Bombers 24.3%
Richmond Tigers 24.3%
Collingwood Magpies 24.3%
Gold Coast Suns 24.3%
Hawthorn Hawks 24.5%
West Coast Eagles 24.5%
Port Adelaide Power 24.6%
Geelong Cats 24.7%
Carlton Blues 25.9%
Brisbane Lions 27.0%
GWS Giants 27.9%
Western Bulldogs 29.0%
St Kilda Saints 30.6%

 

[Tripleginger]

Duncan and Caddy - unequivocally excellent news.

As I feared when the Bulldogs came sniffing, we've now overcommitted to Lonergan. To be clear, he has been outstanding in recent years including in 2014. However there is simply no need to give a 30 year old a two year contact. I hope this doesn't burn us in 2016.

if he plays crap, he'll be in the 2's, no big deal
meanwhile he can teach his replacements a thing or 2

 

[The rabbi]

This is a proxy for the effectiveness of a team's defence - percentage of inside 50s conceded where a goal is scored for 2014:

Sydney Swans 20.9%
Fremantle Dockers 22.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos 22.8%
Adelaide Crows 23.8%
Melbourne Demons 24.2%
Essendon Bombers 24.3%
Richmond Tigers 24.3%
Collingwood Magpies 24.3%
Gold Coast Suns 24.3%
Hawthorn Hawks 24.5%
West Coast Eagles 24.5%
Port Adelaide Power 24.6%
Geelong Cats 24.7%
Carlton Blues 25.9%
Brisbane Lions 27.0%
GWS Giants 27.9%
Western Bulldogs 29.0%
St Kilda Saints 30.6%

But is that really a reflection of the teams defense?
How much of the fact that an inside 50 is conceded is actually due to the fact that that team has also conceded the clearance?
It seems to me a good bet that if you are getting flogged in the clearances then there is going to be enormous pressure placed on the defenders.
Does that stat really reflect more on how poor Geelong are in the middle of the ground?

 

[catempire]

But is that really a reflection of the teams defense?
How much of the fact that an inside 50 is conceded is actually due to the fact that that team has also conceded the clearance?
It seems to me a good bet that if you are getting flogged in the clearances then there is going to be enormous pressure placed on the defenders.
Does that stat really reflect more on how poor Geelong are in the middle of the ground?

Inside 50s conceded is a proxy for how a side fares in the middle of the ground. What I posted is goals conceded as a percentage of inside 50s conceded. To me, that mostly reflects how effective a side's defence is at stopping goals being scored once the ball has entered the defensive 50m arc.

 

[year of the cat]

This is a proxy for the effectiveness of a team's defence - percentage of inside 50s conceded where a goal is scored for 2014:

Sydney Swans 20.9%
Fremantle Dockers 22.6%
North Melbourne Kangaroos 22.8%
Adelaide Crows 23.8%
Melbourne Demons 24.2%
Essendon Bombers 24.3%
Richmond Tigers 24.3%
Collingwood Magpies 24.3%
Gold Coast Suns 24.3%
Hawthorn Hawks 24.5%
West Coast Eagles 24.5%
Port Adelaide Power 24.6%
Geelong Cats 24.7%
Carlton Blues 25.9%
Brisbane Lions 27.0%
GWS Giants 27.9%
Western Bulldogs 29.0%
St Kilda Saints 30.6%

There is a misconception currently that we still have one of the best defences in the league. These stats goes some way to disproving this. Whether we like it or not we need to change the personnel of our back six. Bews and Thurlow are two pretty obvious ones. JK another that should be given reasonable exposure to senior footy this year.

We may have been backed into a corner somewhat with the Bulldogs absurd offer, but to give Lonergan a years extention without having had a kick in 2015 sits pretty uncomfortably with me. I hope I'm wrong and that he can continue his 2014 form into 2015 and 2016. But if we see a drop off, as we did in 2013 with him, then it will have been a poor list management decision. With another 9 players over 30 on our list having to be phased out in the near future, we can ill afford to be making poor list decisions with these older guys.

 

[dazbroncos]

Duncan and Caddy - unequivocally excellent news.

As I feared when the Bulldogs came sniffing, we've now overcommitted to Lonergan. To be clear, he has been outstanding in recent years including in 2014. However there is simply no need to give a 30 year old a two year contact. I hope this doesn't burn us in 2016.

Completely agree with the fear of getting burned in 2016. To counter that, I offer that his form in 2014 was predominantly very good and he has been very durable fitness wise ( kindness excepted of course) but you get what I mean.

Presuming his form carrier from last year, I could see him getting 15 games or so in 2015 and less in 2016. He is GFC thru and thru and whilst yes, 2 years is long, if he can get Kolo, Toohey and hell even Walker ( should he go back there) up to speed in his role that just goes well for us.

And when it comes to Vets, i don't mind them getting a little extra in their last stocking out the door at KP.

Can't say he hasn't earned it.

Go Catters