Cricket Summer betting thread - India, Tri-series, World Cup

[ricardogp]

1u WI under 237.5 @ $1.85 (TAB)

It's worth keeping an eye on the TAB. For the last 2 or 3 games their live betting innings totals have been 10-20 runs more than Sportsbet. SB had WI runs at 223, and I just missed out on 240 at TAB.

Anyway, that leaves WI needing 130 off the last 10. If Sammy departs I just don't see them getting that.

 

[X_box_X]

Would anyone take odds of $4 on Ireland to qualify for the QFs right now?

 

[ricardogp]

Anyone spotted my mistake yet?

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I know this a cricket thread , but sportsbet are piss weak! I wanted to place an over total for the quarter in the all star game because there is zero defence. So I asked them why there isn't any quarter markets and they said they aren't going to be avaliable.

 

[ricardogp]

Bit late but

1U - Ireland SU @ $4.50 (Tom Waterhouse)

You can probably start counting your money...

 

[Anzac16]

You can probably start counting your money...

Was sweating a bit towards the end there!!

 

[Anzac16]

Bit late but

1U - Ireland SU @ $4.50 (Tom Waterhouse)

Nice win

WC 4-0-2 +4.625U

 

[GROTTO]

Bit late but

1U - Ireland SU @ $4.50 (Tom Waterhouse)

Nice win and for being brave, considering that underdog teams at $4.50 are rarely selected on here to win.

 

[GROTTO]

Anyone brave to back Afghanistan to win against Bangladesh?

 

[Th3 DoG FaTh3R]

Also selected Ireland for the win. Anyone get on board with leading run scorer for each team multi? Extremely good value to be had.

 

[ricardogp]

Anyone brave to back Afghanistan to win against Bangladesh?

Funnily enough I already have money on the Afghans. I had more confidence than the Irish.

Might have to start laying the Windies.

 

[Anzac16]

I've got 1U - Afghanistan SU @ $3.85 (Luxbet).

Put it on around a week ago after the trial matches. From a quick check of the bookies I'm with that may have been a bit of an early call. Can get $4.33 on Bet 365 if anyone is keen on them.

I genuinely think they can beat Bangladesh. Their form in the warm up games wasn't too bad and the beat Bangladesh last time the two teams met in an ODI. The value is definitely there.

 

[d3ft]

I've put together a batting performance model to give a run during the World Cup. Had some issues getting my data together so missed the first few games but I'll post all bets in here from now on. Will focus on head to heads and run totals.

First bet:
TG Southee under 40 @ 1.83 (B365)

Didn't really need the model for this one (almost looks like a palp actually). The guy has never scored more than 28 and bats at 10. Biggest worry is if he'll even make it to the crease.

EDIT: Off to a wonderful start misreading the market. Thanks for pointing out this isn't a batting market.

Will likely post a few more tomorrow after I run numbers for a few other players. I have a feeling there'll be a lot of unders for the Kiwi batsmen as the bookies have set some extremely high lines for them.

 

[Lensen]

That's a player performance market surely not a batting performance one

 

[Anzac16]

Yep. Player Performance Market. Scoring System is - http://help.bet365.com.au/en/rules/rules-sports/cricket

1 Run = 1 Point
1 Wicket = 20 Points
1 Catch = 10 Points
1 Stumping = 25 Points

Basically your getting on Southee getting under 2 wickets tomorrow...

 

[Aussie_boy]

That's a player performance market surely not a batting performance one

I originally thought it meant total tournament runs, which would basically be a flip of a coin anyway. Can't see Southee batting more then 2-3 times.

 

[GROTTO]

Yep. Player Performance Market. Scoring System is - http://help.bet365.com.au/en/rules/rules-sports/cricket

1 Run = 1 Point
1 Wicket = 20 Points
1 Catch = 10 Points
1 Stumping = 25 Points

Basically your getting on Southee getting under 2 wickets tomorrow...

That made sense, I thought the bet was way too good to be true.

Where does Southee normally field? On the boundary? I can see a lot of close catches taking place but not ones on the boundary.

 

[Anzac16]

That made sense, I thought the bet was way too good to be true.

Where does Southee normally field? On the boundary? I can see a lot of close catches taking place but not ones on the boundary.

Not sure on fielding position. But has 20 catches in his ODI career out of 85 innings. Only an average of 0.235 per innings.

 

[GROTTO]

Not sure on fielding position. But has 20 catches in his ODI career out of 85 innings. Only an average of 0.235 per innings.

Could even be lower you are assuming he fielded in every one of those games too....

Southee will almost definitely not bat I would take unders personally.

You?

 

[Anzac16]

Could even be lower you are assuming he fielded in every one of those games too....

Southee will almost definitely not bat I would take unders personally.

You?

I'd take 40 & Over Personally. That's only 2 wickets against Scotland.

If you look at his recent ODI bowling performances - 2/43, 1/29(Warm Up game), 2/52, 2/50, 2/42, 3/59. He has hit this in 5/6 games. The warm up game was against SA where he bowled 8 overs and Boult ran riot with a 5 wicket haul. Against Scotland he should pick up 2 I reckon.

If you want to look at past form vs Scotland, he has bowled 4 overs against them for 12 runs, no wickets in one match back in 2008. Which was his first year of playing ODI's.

He averages 2.22 wickets per game in World Cup matches as well.

 

[GROTTO]

I'd take 40 & Over Personally. That's only 2 wickets against Scotland.

Correction. That would be the right bet to take.

Probably could cover the line inside the first 6 overs too.

 

[X_box_X]

why do you call me piss weak?

Sportsbet are piss weak because they don't have a market you're after. How does that make them piss weak?

 

[Atavistic]

Considering a few in next NZ game (from Sportsbet):

NZ to win and hit most sixes v Scotland@1.25
McCullum to hit 50@2.23
Guptill over 48.5@2.35

 

[ricardogp]

This might be Guptill's best chance for a 50

 

[d3ft]

That's a player performance market surely not a batting performance one

Brilliant. They make that so clear on the website too.

I suppose I knew something was up with such a ridiculous (for a batting market) line.

EDIT: Wow, B365 has a "cash out" feature which basically let me cancel the bet for a tiny fee. Glad I posted on here!