Daily Special - February

[iluvparis]

Hopefully a pick up in participation this month as some of the better horses start to come back into work.

Same rules as always - maximum of 1 horse racing bet per day - keep your own records.

 

[iluvparis]

Kilmore - Race 5 - 6.Love And Lies @ BT

Looks a pretty weak BM 64 here, and this mare ran pretty well in this grade at a Warwick Farm midweek meeting earlier this month. She was well fancied at Sandown before that and back to the country hopefully she can score her third win.

 

[iluvparis]

Kilmore - Race 5 - 6.Love And Lies @ BT $2.50

1-0, +1.5

Ballarat - Race 3 - 1.Alluring Miss @ BT

In what looks a weak maiden this lightly raced 5yo mare has put in two good runs at her last two outings to be just beaten. She has been well fancied at every start and I think faces here weakest challenge to date here. Should be able to get off the mark.

 

[iluvparis]

Ballarat - Race 3 - 1.Alluring Miss @ BT

1-1, +0.5

Sandown - Race 6 - 5.Popovich @ BT

Really exciting looking BM64 here. Popovich was heavily backed on debut and when scoring nicely at Sandown in early January. Second subsequently went to Ballarat and bolted in a Maiden by 4 lengths so the form looks pretty good. Hopefully can make it 2 for 2.

 

[DemonTim]

1-1, +0.5

Sandown - Race 6 - 5.Popovich @ BT

Really exciting looking BM64 here. Popovich was heavily backed on debut and when scoring nicely at Sandown in early January. Second subsequently went to Ballarat and bolted in a Maiden by 4 lengths so the form looks pretty good. Hopefully can make it 2 for 2.

Took the sports bet offer of Jennio into Popovich at $7.28, so lets hope so

 

[FallingLiefs]

r1 Ascot - Dainty Tess @ BT

above average horse. below average field 7.25L off at only start doesn't read great but the River and Trademark look top notch. Beat home four white fox who the Miller brigade backed early and it's stable mate comes here with no support as second fave. it's circumstantial form but I think that's a nice lead that it can knock off the second fave. Rich Red is blowing out the door so despite being the danger happy to risk an be on DT.

 

[iluvparis]

Sandown - Race 6 - 5.Popovich @ BT $3.10

2-1, +2.6

Wyong - Race 2 - 8.Glitterama @ BT

Know some of the connections of this Maiden who has failed to deliver on her early promise so far despite being fancied at each start. The Waller fave has been placed once in 7 starts and the second fave looks a solid non winner which Gliterrama was only a length or so behind last time out. Hopefully she can settle in the first 4 or 5 from gate 1 and run over them in the straight.

 

[rideclutch]

Racing.com Park - R8 - Tivaci @ 2.3

If they have any carnival type ambitions with this horse, he should really put these away and quite easily. Looks no disadvantage sweeping home out wide, can sit 3 deep no cover if necessary, should be winning.

 

[rideclutch]

Racing.com Park - R8 - Tivaci @ 2.3

If they have any carnival type ambitions with this horse, he should really put these away and quite easily. Looks no disadvantage sweeping home out wide, can sit 3 deep no cover if necessary, should be winning.

Could've got 3.2 when they jumped

1-0, +1.3

 

[FallingLiefs]

r1 Ascot - Dainty Tess @ BT

above average horse. below average field 7.25L off at only start doesn't read great but the River and Trademark look top notch. Beat home four white fox who the Miller brigade backed early and it's stable mate comes here with no support as second fave. it's circumstantial form but I think that's a nice lead that it can knock off the second fave. Rich Red is blowing out the door so despite being the danger happy to risk an be on DT.

1-0 +1.0 [ 14-33 +9.25]

r4 - Ascot, Kennocha @$3 (365/uni)

only reasonable size bet i could find today at ascot. progressive horse Marchand the big threat if Kennocha doesn't improve on its first up run as expected.

 

[iluvparis]

Wyong - Race 2 - 8.Glitterama @ BT

2-2, +1.6

Randwick - Race 4 - 3.Dublin Lass @ BOB

Superb first two runs this prep before a little dissapointing last time out (albeit on pace in a swoopers race). Smaller field here should suit and just looks way too classy for the rest of the field (think it will be too short for Amicus).

 

[iluvparis]

Randwick - Race 4 - 3.Dublin Lass @ BOB

Absolutely disgusting effort.

2-3, +0.6

Sale - Race 4 - 13.Wichita Woman @ BT

This 3yo filly was thought highly enough of to contest the Ethereal Stakes at just her third start (admittedly well held). Before that she was just nosed out in a Ballarat maiden on her first turf start (having disappointed on synthetic at Pakenham). Hoping she is here for a nice kill before heading to the city for the Autumn carnival.

 

[DemonTim]

Absolutely disgusting effort.

2-3, +0.6

Sale - Race 4 - 13.Wichita Woman @ BT

This 3yo filly was thought highly enough of to contest the Ethereal Stakes at just her third start (admittedly well held). Before that she was just nosed out in a Ballarat maiden on her first turf start (having disappointed on synthetic at Pakenham). Hoping she is here for a nice kill before heading to the city for the Autumn carnival.

About as bad as Paris dream killing my perfect ascot run

 

[FallingLiefs]

1-0 +1.0 [ 14-33 +9.25]

r4 - Ascot, Kennocha @$3 (365/uni)

only reasonable size bet i could find today at ascot. progressive horse Marchand the big threat if Kennocha doesn't improve on its first up run as expected.

2-0 +3.0 [15-33 +11.25]

r7 Pinjarra Swedish Memories @$4 (uni)

Pretty decent magic millions this one. Not much between the 3 at the top all look like they could really kick on with it after their 2yo prep. This is the fresh horse having not run for a month or two and if it's had any improvement in that time I expect it to win. Stored Energy is one i could entertain on the mapping basis but is probably just behind on quality of these.

 

[iluvparis]

Sale - Race 4 - 13.Wichita Woman @ BT $3.80

3-3, +3.4

Hobart - Race 7 - 2.Gee Gee Golden Girl @ BT

Looks the pick of the locals in this years Hobart Cup having just failed to win at WFA when hot favourite at Launy last start. The extremely compressed weight scales makes this a virtual WFA race again here. The favourite is way too inconsistent for mine and can't be trusted while the rest of the visitors look to be moderate BM horses.

 

[iluvparis]

Hobart - Race 7 - 2.Gee Gee Golden Girl @ BT

3-4, +2.4

Stony Creek - Race 7 - 7.Stars In The Sky @ BT

Solid non winner (3 from 36) which is not really my cup of tea but think this veteran gelding gets a chance at a 4th career win back on top of the ground here. He faced a wet track last time out but had run 3 decent races out of 4 and looks like he should get the gun run from gate 2.

 

[iluvparis]

Stony Creek - Race 7 - 7.Stars In The Sky @ BT

3-5, +1.4

Hawkesbury - Race 4 - 1.Charging @ BT

Looks a terribly weak maiden and Charging's placing at Muswellbrook last time should be good enough to take this, especially if he improves stepping out to the mile.

 

[FallingLiefs]

2-0 +3.0 [15-33 +11.25]

r7 Pinjarra Swedish Memories @$4 (uni)

Pretty decent magic millions this one. Not much between the 3 at the top all look like they could really kick on with it after their 2yo prep. This is the fresh horse having not run for a month or two and if it's had any improvement in that time I expect it to win. Stored Energy is one i could entertain on the mapping basis but is probably just behind on quality of these.

2-1 +2.0 [ 15-34 +10.25]

r6 Bunbury Cone Bay @TT

shown some ability and i'll pretend last start didn't happen.

 

[Trav26]

2-1 +2.0 [ 15-34 +10.25]

r6 Bunbury Cone Bay @TT

shown some ability and i'll pretend last start didn't happen.

Just missed getting my bet on for this one

 

[iluvparis]

Hawkesbury - Race 4 - 1.Charging @ BT

3-6, +0.4

Moonee Valley - Race 6 - 2.Society Man @ BT

Ran well every start last prep without winning, including a nice second to Durendal which shapes as excellent form for this (beat one rival here that day). Only run at the Valley was just nosed out after leading all the way and if the track is playing in his favour he looks an excellent EW play here.

 

[FallingLiefs]

2-1 +2.0 [ 15-34 +10.25]

r6 Bunbury Cone Bay @TT

shown some ability and i'll pretend last start didn't happen.

3-1 +3.20 [16-35 +11.45]

SATURDAY r8 Ascot North Ridge $6 (365)

last start was basically a trial. 2000m+ horse first up over 1100 drew the widest, snagged to last, blocked for run, runs second fastest split on a hugely positive trend through the line. genuine speed in the race but slightly worried about the easterly being forecast for backmarkers and the two leaders have come back in career form.

 

[iluvparis]

3-6, +0.4

Moonee Valley - Race 6 - 2.Society Man @ BT

Ran well every start last prep without winning, including a nice second to Durendal which shapes as excellent form for this (beat one rival here that day). Only run at the Valley was just nosed out after leading all the way and if the track is playing in his favour he looks an excellent EW play here.

Redic price

 

[iluvparis]

Moonee Valley - Race 6 - 2.Society Man @ BT $9.20

4-6, +8.6

Caulfield - Race 7 - 7.Turn Me Loose @ BOB

Might not be fully wound up first up but that might just mean this is the best price we get about him this Autumn. Dominated from the front in the spring culminating in a win in the Emirates and has held Lucky Hussler easily at his last two. Will make his own luck up on the lead and if he is ready to go he can keep his winning streak alive.

 

[FallingLiefs]

3-1 +3.20 [16-35 +11.45]

SATURDAY r8 Ascot North Ridge $6 (365)

last start was basically a trial. 2000m+ horse first up over 1100 drew the widest, snagged to last, blocked for run, runs second fastest split on a hugely positive trend through the line. genuine speed in the race but slightly worried about the easterly being forecast for backmarkers and the two leaders have come back in career form.

4-1 +8.20 [17-35 +16.45]

r2 Geraldton Red Sky Ruler $4.80

consistent type, genuine break through chance today. fave can GAGF.

 

[iluvparis]

Caulfield - Race 7 - 7.Turn Me Loose @ BOB

4-7, +7.6

Wyong - Race 2 - 7.Gendebien @ BT

Looks a pretty weak maiden and this Perry trained galloper has been less than 2 lengths from breaking his maiden at 4 of his 5 starts to date. Likes to sit up on the pace so hopefully does the same today before putting the race to bed. Hawkes first starter looks the main danger.