Daily Special - November

Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
par run but sacked

2-9 -1.6 [9-24 -3.45]

r4 Ascot - Sheerkat @TT+

early drift worrying but they're backing horses that struggle to win and this is getting close to its right price. i do like Barambas bid but it will go back and i like this one mapping forward. looks progressive and well bred for a staying horse in WA. my main worry is second up and is bred to run a distance but it ran well in a good form race second up last prep where it did quicken with them and again maps forward. great through the line last start even though it was first up. Looks a toughish day elsewhere and a few fairly progressive horses which we get midweek at this time of year.

3-10 +0.3 [10-24 -1.55]

r7 Narrogin - Oradol $3.3 (Sportsbet)

got a handful of negatives but way too much of a difference between this and the fave. I actually rate the horse, if it drifts i'd be happy to back a couple others that are well into double figures
 
This horse saluted today, did you get on again?

No way I could have backed it ever again after it failed to run past the winner last time. One start too late sadly!
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
3-10 +0.3 [10-24 -1.55]

r7 Narrogin - Oradol $3.3 (Sportsbet)

got a handful of negatives but way too much of a difference between this and the fave. I actually rate the horse, if it drifts i'd be happy to back a couple others that are well into double figures

4-10 +2.6 [11-24 +0.75]

didn't get to see it but two bets for the day both got up so it must have only scraped in being the second off the two.

Ascot r1 - Mixed Messages $4.2 (365)

in and out early (story of my life) tomorrow with the only bet of day so far. Hate the day as a whole. 2 low grade 3yo races. 2yo race. 2 staying races and 2 country finals. which leaves 2 races with horses close to the red that i cant oppose or back just yet. so the lesser of evils is the 3yo races and i just liked this horses debut. hard to expect much from a blackfriars/scenic first start over 1100 but it ran on strong into 4th, a margin with 3rd a subsequent stakes winner and the winner looking to be well above average. can't really give it too much more of a push because I'm honestly not that confident but its worth a look at $4.2.
 
Canterbury - Race 2 - 7.Stravigo TT+ $3.40

3 good runs in town before being put out after a bad effort second up last prep. Has won a trial in preperation for this and the field doesn't look much chop. Think Gai's first starter probably the biggest danger.

7-17 +1.3

Rosehill - Race 8 - 3.Ninth Legion @ BOB

Happy to take on Gai again here. While her fave has been beating up the second division while the big boy have been away at the carnival, meets a genuine Carnival horse here in Ninth Legion who looks like going around a generous EW price and should be ready to win now.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
4-10 +2.6 [11-24 +0.75]

didn't get to see it but two bets for the day both got up so it must have only scraped in being the second off the two.

Ascot r1 - Mixed Messages $4.2 (365)

in and out early (story of my life) tomorrow with the only bet of day so far. Hate the day as a whole. 2 low grade 3yo races. 2yo race. 2 staying races and 2 country finals. which leaves 2 races with horses close to the red that i cant oppose or back just yet. so the lesser of evils is the 3yo races and i just liked this horses debut. hard to expect much from a blackfriars/scenic first start over 1100 but it ran on strong into 4th, a margin with 3rd a subsequent stakes winner and the winner looking to be well above average. can't really give it too much more of a push because I'm honestly not that confident but its worth a look at $4.2.

4-11 +1.6 [11-25 -0.25]

i thought i was in trouble when the winner went from $4.6 to $3.40 across every single corporate and $4.40 to $2.90 on crownbet all in 20 seconds. Decent run, got ability but winner had same form lines and pasted it.

r8 - Geraldton - Vitalism @TT+

Long time high quality maiden before streeting them two starts back before a nice second in a high rating race. Hopefully can get a black price in a poor race where the threat is the toppy at 10's.
 
Rosehill - Race 8 - 3.Ninth Legion @ BOB

7-18 +0.3

Pakenham - Race 7 - 3.Scream Machine @ BT+

Don't think many missed his run last time when looking like he was about to put the race to bed on the worst part of the track before the saddle slipped and he lost all chance. Don't think this looks any more difficult and can atone here.
 
Pakenham - Race 7 - 3.Scream Machine @ BT+

7-19 -0.7

Hamilton - Race 3 - 14.Shiny Lass @ BT

Literally one of the worst maiden's I've ever seen so hoping Weiry has been pouring the juice into this one over the weekend.
 
Hamilton - Race 3 - 14.Shiny Lass @ BT $3.30

8-19 +1.6

A nice finish to the month to finish with a 30% SR and a 6% ROI. Bit of a disappointing return given that SR but took some heinous unders on a couple of winners.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
4-11 +1.6 [11-25 -0.25]

i thought i was in trouble when the winner went from $4.6 to $3.40 across every single corporate and $4.40 to $2.90 on crownbet all in 20 seconds. Decent run, got ability but winner had same form lines and pasted it.

r8 - Geraldton - Vitalism @TT+


Long time high quality maiden before streeting them two starts back before a nice second in a high rating race. Hopefully can get a black price in a poor race where the threat is the toppy at 10's.

can run a nice second.

MTD: 4-12 +0.6 (25% 4% ROI)
YTD: 11-26-1.25 (30% -3% ROI)
 
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