Do Richmond have a chance to contend next year?

[This Is Anfield]

Did I say it was easy? I said it was meaningless. And it is. Ask St. Kilda:

They won 10 in a row, and what did it get them? This s**t DVD set. Loser clubs talk about winning streaks. There's only one winning streak you need to be worried about - the 3 or 4 games you need to win when Richmond makes the finals this year.

How can it be meaningless if it teaches you how to win, to gain experience and belief?
So Port's last couple of years under Hinkley have been "meaningless" then?
If Freo doesn't win a flag this year or next, the Lyon era has been meaningless?

 

[Murraj1966]

Suspect the end will come rather quickly for Maric unfortunately, and they don't really have another ruckman.

Incredible the chat about McBean from this season and even last, him coming in and replacing Ty was going to help the side greatly, and now it's all about Vickery after he's played a handful of solid games this year? Bizarre.

Martin still gets way too much footy running away from goal in the back half, then kicking it across his body, quite often to opposition players for a turnover and a quick goal.

Will be stunned if Conca becomes anything at all, should probably play Lambert over him.

Lennon is silky but incredibly slow, which is a shame because the Tigers need a bit more outside speed and foot skills, as well as a genuine small forward.

Can't really see them getting past 3rd or so with this list unless they can bring in a few immediate contributors. Top end is quite good, bottom 4 or 6 players are still pretty poor.

Sounds like a Ross Lyon special.

Be ready for the announcement Freo fans.

 

[Tiger71]

Only a Richmond fan could equate 9 meaningless home and away fixtures where the pressure to perform was only against Richmond and only ever internal because no one expected them to make it vs a finals series where there is huge pressure on both sides to put up a good performance.

Hardwick knows the sides limitations which is why he has grafted it into a quasi version of Fremantle/Sydney - lock down, defensive with high pressure on the ball carrier and a rolling zone that facilitates counter attacking football.

The trouble is, lock down defence doesn't win you premierships in the modern era unless you're either lucky (see the 2005/06 GFs) or your opponent is extremely wasteful (see the 2012 GF).

Check out the squiggle. Sydney's 2005 GF win, where Richmond appears to be trending towards? There's a reason why it's by itself on the graph. Hawthorn showed last year why teams that trend toward that kind of football end up being roadkill the majority of the time.

Can they make finals next year? Absolutely. If that makes them a contender, then they are. But winning a flag playing this style? Unless the opposition don't turn up (or they play Fremantle/Sydney) - zero chance.

You need to drop the J form you name mate, will be more suitable to this offended post.

 

[CrazyKenny]

i still think that Richmond are lacking a lot of outside run and that will possibly cost them in finals and next year, definitely think they could use someone like Dennis Armfield as I think he'd fit into the system well, could possibly trade for Ellis or Miles who are very common players in the Tigers team

Thoughts?

 

[Moshie The Mook]

i still think that Richmond are lacking a lot of outside run and that will possibly cost them in finals and next year, definitely think they could use someone like Dennis Armfield as I think he'd fit into the system well, could possibly trade for Ellis or Miles who are very common players in the Tigers team

Thoughts?

 

[Fadge]

I have rated Richmond for the past three or four years though feel they will top out as the 4th/5th/6th best team in the comp without seriously contending for the flag.

They will be victims of a tougher draw next year as a result of finishing in the top 6 this year.

Look for two, maybe all 3, of GWS, Port Adelaide, Collingwood to leap into the top 4 in 2016.

 

[Fadge]

You need to drop the J form you name mate, will be more suitable to this offended post.

Would you consider throwing in Liam Jones as a package deal? He'd be great support for Jack.

 

[MotleyLemon]

I have rated Richmond for the past three or four years though feel they will top out as the 4th/5th/6th best team in the comp without seriously contending for the flag.

They will be victims of a tougher draw next year as a result of finishing in the top 6 this year.

Look for two, maybe all 3, of GWS, Port Adelaide, Collingwood to leap into the top 4 in 2016.

Collingwood?

 

[Ron The Bear]

i still think that Richmond are lacking a lot of outside run and that will possibly cost them in finals and next year, definitely think they could use someone like Patrick Cripps as I think he'd fit into the system well, could possibly trade for Morris or Petterd who are very common players in the Tigers team

Thoughts?

Done.

 

[Tiger71]

Would you consider throwing in Liam Jones as a package deal? He'd be great support for Jack.

What ?

 

[Fadge]

What ?

Sorry, response was to the post below yours.

 

[dean33]

I'm sure if I was a Richmond fan I'd be hopeful.

But you'd certainly be bucking two trends for that to occur:

1) That, generally speaking, teams who have not won finals previously do not simply steamroll through 3 credentialed opponents.
-and-
2) Richmond has been very poor in finals.

West coast 2005 made the grand final losing by 4 pts after being eliminated first week the previous 2 years. Adelaide won 2 flags in a row 97,98 after finishing 12th and 11th the previous 2 years.

 

[dean33]

i still think that Richmond are lacking a lot of outside run and that will possibly cost them in finals and next year, definitely think they could use someone like Dennis Armfield as I think he'd fit into the system well, could possibly trade for Ellis or Miles who are very common players in the Tigers team

Thoughts?

you weren't in charge of the Essendon recruiting team were you?

 

[dean33]

I have rated Richmond for the past three or four years though feel they will top out as the 4th/5th/6th best team in the comp without seriously contending for the flag.

They will be victims of a tougher draw next year as a result of finishing in the top 6 this year.

Look for two, maybe all 3, of GWS, Port Adelaide, Collingwood to leap into the top 4 in 2016.

Yes I think we wouldn't have won as many this year if we played more of say hawthorn, swans and freo instead of teams like Melbourne...

 

[CrazyKenny]

Would you consider throwing in Liam Jones as a package deal? He'd be great support for Jack.

Nah don't think so, Liam Jones is a much better player than Ty Vickery so don't think I would want do that trade if I was carlton

 

[Righteo]

Sounds like a Ross Lyon special.

Be ready for the announcement Freo fans.

What does? You quoted that post without highlighting anything specifically.

 

[CrazyKenny]

you weren't in charge of the Essendon recruiting team were you?

No but I did grow up with Michael Hibberd

 

[Bronwyn Bishop]

why not. theyve beaten the best teams

 

[Jade]

West coast 2005 made the grand final losing by 4 pts after being eliminated first week the previous 2 years. Adelaide won 2 flags in a row 97,98 after finishing 12th and 11th the previous 2 years.

That, GENERALLY SPEAKING.....

I thank you for validating my assertion.

In all the years since Richmond last won a flag, the following six teams 'bucked' the trend:

In 2006 Geelong missed the finals.
In 1996 Adelaide missed the finals.
In 1994 Carlton were knocked out in straight sets.
In 1992 Essendon missed the finals.
In 1990 Hawthorn were knocked out first round.
In 1989 Collingwood were knocked out first round.

Doing the math quickly, it says that 83% of the time, a team has at least won a final in the year before it gets the flag. You might note, that five of those occurrences occurred in a seven year stretch as the game expanded and the talent pool was skewed due to the nationalization of the comp.

Expand that to TWO years previous, and only Adelaide, Essendon, Collingwood have managed to take flags after failing to win a final in those two years.

Math again says around 91% of the time a flag is won, that team has won at least one final in the previous two years.

Go to three? Only Adelaide and Collingwood have achieved that feat. Math says 94% of the time a team wins a flag it has won at least one final the past three seasons.

Four? Collingwood alone has done that in that time. So in all the years since your last flag, 97% of sides had won a final in the last four years before taking the flag. (Collingwood FYI, went five years).

It has been THIRTEEN YEARS since Richmond won a final.

Now this is not to poo-poo your side. In fact I've been rather complimentary about Richmond, but I repeat my statement:

That, generally speaking, teams who have not won finals previously do not simply steamroll through 3 credentialed opponents.

Now, do you disagree with my factually supported statement?

 

[Murraj1966]

What does? You quoted that post without highlighting anything specifically.

 

[Thats Wright]

Comparing Hardwick and Brad Scott it seems the Tigers have got the gameplan down and are now focusing on playing for the jumper.

Brad Scott is still out of his depth balancing his gameplan and the chemistry of his list.

Development thrives when a team balances gameplan, chemistry and passion.

North running on 0/3 and still on par with the Tigers.

Round 23 should be a draw.

 

[Righteo]

I'm no closer to understanding your point but okay.

 

[dean33]

That, GENERALLY SPEAKING.....

I thank you for validating my assertion.

In all the years since Richmond last won a flag, the following six teams 'bucked' the trend:

In 2006 Geelong missed the finals.
In 1996 Adelaide missed the finals.
In 1994 Carlton were knocked out in straight sets.
In 1992 Essendon missed the finals.
In 1990 Hawthorn were knocked out first round.
In 1989 Collingwood were knocked out first round.

Doing the math quickly, it says that 83% of the time, a team has at least won a final in the year before it gets the flag. You might note, that five of those occurrences occurred in a seven year stretch as the game expanded and the talent pool was skewed due to the nationalization of the comp.

Expand that to TWO years previous, and only Adelaide, Essendon, Collingwood have managed to take flags after failing to win a final in those two years.

Math again says around 91% of the time a flag is won, that team has won at least one final in the previous two years.

Go to three? Only Adelaide and Collingwood have achieved that feat. Math says 94% of the time a team wins a flag it has won at least one final the past three seasons.

Four? Collingwood alone has done that in that time. So in all the years since your last flag, 97% of sides had won a final in the last four years before taking the flag. (Collingwood FYI, went five years).

It has been THIRTEEN YEARS since Richmond won a final.

Now this is not to poo-poo your side. In fact I've been rather complimentary about Richmond, but I repeat my statement:

That, generally speaking, teams who have not won finals previously do not simply steamroll through 3 credentialed opponents.

Now, do you disagree with my factually supported statement?

I know it doesn't happen much however neither had making the finals being 3-10 as the tigers did last year. At the end of the day do I think we will win the flag this year? No I don't. I do however think we can possibly make a prelim which would be a huge pass mark. I have always thought from 2016 onwards is when we should really be looking at contending.

 

[TigerTime3]

That, GENERALLY SPEAKING.....

I thank you for validating my assertion.

In all the years since Richmond last won a flag, the following six teams 'bucked' the trend:

In 2006 Geelong missed the finals.
In 1996 Adelaide missed the finals.
In 1994 Carlton were knocked out in straight sets.
In 1992 Essendon missed the finals.
In 1990 Hawthorn were knocked out first round.
In 1989 Collingwood were knocked out first round.

Doing the math quickly, it says that 83% of the time, a team has at least won a final in the year before it gets the flag. You might note, that five of those occurrences occurred in a seven year stretch as the game expanded and the talent pool was skewed due to the nationalization of the comp.

Expand that to TWO years previous, and only Adelaide, Essendon, Collingwood have managed to take flags after failing to win a final in those two years.

Math again says around 91% of the time a flag is won, that team has won at least one final in the previous two years.

Go to three? Only Adelaide and Collingwood have achieved that feat. Math says 94% of the time a team wins a flag it has won at least one final the past three seasons.

Four? Collingwood alone has done that in that time. So in all the years since your last flag, 97% of sides had won a final in the last four years before taking the flag. (Collingwood FYI, went five years).

It has been THIRTEEN YEARS since Richmond won a final.

Now this is not to poo-poo your side. In fact I've been rather complimentary about Richmond, but I repeat my statement:

That, generally speaking, teams who have not won finals previously do not simply steamroll through 3 credentialed opponents.

Now, do you disagree with my factually supported statement?

Good post.

Richmond probably need to win a final or two this year to set themselves up for next year.

However, until 2014 nobody had ever seen a team make the finals from 3-10 either, so history doesn't guarantee what will happen in the future. Also, historical statistics can't be described as a "factually supported statement" when predicting the future. Basically, Richmond would need to buck the trend to win one this year.

Being the only team in the AFL to beat 3 of the top 4 teams so far in 2015 is a good start... but realistically, our window is over the coming 3 years and we could potentially even do a Port Adelaide next year too.

 

[Richo83]

Jade's right, Richmond is no chance this year. But if they can find a good crumbing forward and a decent second tall to partner Riewoldt, they're set. Finding depth to fit with the other players wont be that hard, it's not that hard to find a player who can play their role alongside the other guys if the other guys keep playing as well as they are now.