Do Richmond have a chance to contend next year?

[Jade]

I know it doesn't happen much however neither had making the finals being 3-10 as the tigers did last year. At the end of the day do I think we will win the flag this year? No I don't. I do however think we can possibly make a prelim which would be a huge pass mark. I have always thought from 2016 onwards is when we should really be looking at contending.

And you won't find me saying it definitely won't happen. What I said was, it would be an incredible outlier if it did.

I would suggest any finals win would be a big pass for the Tigers.

 

[Jade]

Good post.

Richmond probably need to win a final or two this year to set themselves up for next year.

However, until 2014 nobody had ever seen a team make the finals from 3-10 either, so history doesn't guarantee what will happen in the future. Also, historical statistics can't be described as a "factually supported statement" when predicting the future. Basically, Richmond would need to buck the trend to win one this year.

Being the only team in the AFL to beat 3 of the top 4 teams so far in 2015 is a good start... but realistically, our window is over the coming 3 years and we could potentially even do a Port Adelaide next year too.

I'm sure if I was a Richmond fan I'd be hopeful.

But you'd certainly be bucking two trends for that to occur:

1) That, generally speaking, teams who have not won finals previously do not simply steamroll through 3 credentialed opponents.
-and-
2) Richmond has been very poor in finals.

 

[Jade]

Jade's right, Richmond is no chance this year. But if they can find a good crumbing forward and a decent second tall to partner Riewoldt, they're set. Finding depth to fit with the other players wont be that hard, it's not that hard to find a player who can play their role alongside the other guys if the other guys keep playing as well as they are now.

Jade didn't say that.

 

[BBOYCREDENTIALS]

no reason they can't go back2back next year

bbceez

 

[Fadge]

Yes I think we wouldn't have won as many this year if we played more of say hawthorn, swans and freo instead of teams like Melbourne...

Yes, and it's exactly that inconsistency that means you guys cannot beat three of the best teams in the competition in consecutive weeks when it matters most.

You're also underestimating the impact of more regularly coming up against the best teams in the competition.

I guess only time will tell on this one, and I as much as any non-Richmond supporter would love to see you do it, I just don't think you've got the list to do so...

 

[dean33]

Yes, and it's exactly that inconsistency that means you guys cannot beat three of the best teams in the competition in consecutive weeks when it matters most.

You're also underestimating the impact of more regularly coming up against the best teams in the competition.

I guess only time will tell on this one, and I as much as any non-Richmond supporter would love to see you do it, I just don't think you've got the list to do so...

We are actually very very consistent.. The team who lost to Melbourne, Bulldogs, north is not the same one that plays today. North was the watershed game.

 

[Nostradumbass]

i still think that Richmond are lacking a lot of outside run and that will possibly cost them in finals and next year, definitely think they could use someone like Dennis Armfield as I think he'd fit into the system well, could possibly trade for Ellis or Miles who are very common players in the Tigers team

Thoughts?

Lol....

 

[Richo83]

I have rated Richmond for the past three or four years though feel they will top out as the 4th/5th/6th best team in the comp without seriously contending for the flag.

They will be victims of a tougher draw next year as a result of finishing in the top 6 this year.

Look for two, maybe all 3, of GWS, Port Adelaide, Collingwood to leap into the top 4 in 2016.

Will they though? Richmond had to play Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney and Brisbane all away, it had to play Fremantle, Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton and North twice. Richmond's draw wasn't overly easy I would say.

North had to play Brisbane, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong and Richmond. Both teams had to play each other, both teams had to play Fremantle and Essendon twice, Richmond played Collingwood and Carlton twice instead of Geelong and Brisbane. North finished in the top six last year but their draw didn't get that much harder. And I imagine that Richmond will play at least five games against Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton like this year.

 

[Tiger71]

Nah don't think so, Liam Jones is a much better player than Ty Vickery so don't think I would want do that trade if I was carlton

 

[captain cotch 9]

We are now 21/7 from our last 28 games.
We have beaten Sydney in Sydney twice in that time.
The only reason we arnt seen as a credible threat is that we loose games we should win. Eg. Melbourne.

 

[CountryRace]

i still think that Richmond are lacking a lot of outside run and that will possibly cost them in finals and next year, definitely think they could use someone like Dennis Armfield as I think he'd fit into the system well, could possibly trade for Ellis or Miles who are very common players in the Tigers team

Thoughts?

Yeah, nah

Don't think so

 

[captain cotch 9]

i still think that Richmond are lacking a lot of outside run and that will possibly cost them in finals and next year, definitely think they could use someone like Dennis Armfield as I think he'd fit into the system well, could possibly trade for Ellis or Miles who are very common players in the Tigers team

Thoughts?

Thoughts? Are you thinking?
Dennis Armfield? NO.
Trade Ellis or Miles????? WTF NO.

 

[CrazyKenny]

Thoughts? Are you thinking?
Dennis Armfield? NO.
Trade Ellis or Miles????? WTF NO.

Why not?

 

[Fadge]

North had to play Brisbane, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong and Richmond. Both teams had to play each other, both teams had to play Fremantle and Essendon twice, Richmond played Collingwood and Carlton twice instead of Geelong and Brisbane. North finished in the top six last year but their draw didn't get that much harder. And I imagine that Richmond will play at least five games against Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton like this year.

As a Collingwood supporter I'd love to play twice against Richmond next year given you've beaten us once since 2007 and that was by five points...

 

[Fadge]

We are now 21/7 from our last 28 games.
We have beaten Sydney in Sydney twice in that time.
The only reason we arnt seen as a credible threat is that we loose games we should win. Eg. Melbourne.

Do you think you loose games because you play too lose?

 

[Richo83]

As a Collingwood supporter I'd love to play twice against Richmond next year given you've beaten us once since 2007 and that was by five points...

I'd rather play Collingwood twice than someone like Sydney or West Coast though. And yeah, Collingwood is a tough fixture, but is Essendon or Carlton? My point was that Richmond isn't guaranteed to play any top four given it needs to play the big clubs.

 

[Richo83]

Why not?

Dude, stop trolling.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Yes, and it's exactly that inconsistency that means you guys cannot beat three of the best teams in the competition in consecutive weeks when it matters most.

You're also underestimating the impact of more regularly coming up against the best teams in the competition.

I guess only time will tell on this one, and I as much as any non-Richmond supporter would love to see you do it, I just don't think you've got the list to do so...

Richmond aren't inconsistent. 5/6 losses were against top 8 teams, with Melbourne the only disappointment.

West Coast just tied with a bottom 2 team. Hawthorn have dropped games to Essendon, GWS and Port. That's 3 bottom 10 teams. North, Geelong and the Bulldogs have all lost to minnows. All teams drop games to teams they should be beating.

Richmond's inconsistency is massively overstated.

 

[blaisee]

Richmond aren't inconsistent. 5/6 losses were against top 8 teams, with Melbourne the only disappointment.

West Coast just tied with a bottom 2 team. Hawthorn have dropped games to Essendon, GWS and Port. That's 3 bottom 10 teams. North, Geelong and the Bulldogs have all lost to minnows. All teams drop games to teams they should be beating.

Richmond's inconsistency is massively overstated.

that's right

we are inconsistently inconsistent

 

[CountryRace]

Whoever it is, they ain't good enough

It's hard to pin point exactly who Richmond's bottom 6 is, because the bottom few players are always in and out. I'd say the regulars are:

Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Riewoldt, Rance, Maric, B.Ellis, Edwards, Miles, Houli, Vlastuin, Grimes, Batchelor, Vickery, Griffiths, Chaplin, Grigg, Conca, McIntosh.

So that's 19 players who aren't complete duds. Hunt gets a game every week too but he's s**t.

That means the last 2-3 is any combination of:

Lloyd, Gordon, Morris, Newman, Lennon, C.Ellis, Lambert.

So every week we play a minimum 2-3 players who just don't contribute, whether it's due to being too young (Lennon/Ellis) or being too s**t (Gordon, Lloyd, Hunt).

The problems start when we get a few injuries. Instead of just playing 2-3 of those guys, we have to play 5-6.

Richmond need Ellis and Lennon to develop and to find 1-2 more players and they'll be right in contention.

 

[reincarnated]

If Geelong win tonight they will only be 2 points off 9th spot.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Richmond will struggle to make the eight next year. They have a lot of ordinary players and have been lucky with injuries this year. Going nowhere.

Gee, you copped a lot of flak for this comment but looks like you are a man of great vision.

 

[Lsta062]

Just like every year they will tease and fail.

Wrong! Richmond didn't even tease this year

 

[thetradesman]

Gee, you copped a lot of flak for this comment but looks like you are a man of great vision.

Don't think anybody expected us to be this unlucky with injuries.. But we are playing terribly. Something has too give.

 

[GordonBlue]

Don't think anybody expected us to be this unlucky with injuries.. But we are playing terribly. Something has too give.

You're not that unlucky. It's a standard injury list