Certified Legendary Thread Dont laugh, we're still in it come Rnd 23... [TOTY]

[JAKLAUGHING]

9th is good. .isn't it ASADA!

 

[TigerAndy]

yeah our % is the problem in the race for the bottom (of the 8)

I suspect when it is all done and dusted that our % wont be the problem. It will be that we have not won enough games

 

[sprockets]

IF we win each game and our main opponents lose a couple our comparable percentage should be fine.

Edit: Just did the predictor again and while we still need to win each game it's not far fetched at all that the rest of the results help get us in. If the bombers get kicked out again I'd say it's more likely we'll get in if we win every game. Our finals aspirations are in our own hands as far as I'm concerned. Make it happen Tigers!

 

[tigertaskforce]

i think were dreaming but wouldn't be tigers if we dare to dream

 

[Ned_Flanders]

We are no chance

If on round 23 we are looking at "beat Sydney and we are in finals", I will rock up to the SCG in a tiger onesie, hello kitty face paint, and wearing a t-shirt that says "Buddy's Fluffer"

 

[tigertaskforce]

We are no chance

If on round 23 we are looking at "beat Sydney and we are in finals", I will rock up to the SCG in a tiger onesie, hello kitty face paint, and wearing a t-shirt that says "Buddy's Fluffer"

that's a brave statement the pics will haunt you forever if it happens
just sayin

 

[sante]

that's a brave statement the pics will haunt you forever if it happens
just sayin

Bet he doesn't do it

 

[tigertaskforce]

Bet he doesn't do it

maybe not but wouldn't it be fantastic if he has to ?

 

[Final Siren]

It's not going to happen, but if you can't dream about it you might as well give up on footy for the year. And March 2015 is a long way away.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

just out of boredom if and its a massive if essendumb go down how many players would they have left to pick from ?

About 6. Unfortunately Gold Coast will get to play them post infractions.

 

[Rich o man]

Hopefully the AFL take into account the fact that in Round 23 we are playing in Sydney on the Saturday and if we play interstate in our first final that they will give us the full week's break.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Bet he doesn't do it

Bet I don't need to

as Ive said before, the math is so against this happening its not funny

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Does anybody really believe that this infraction thing will happen?
I don't.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Bet I don't need to

as Ive said before, the math is so against this happening its not funny

Exactly. Have we got any huge maths heads in here?
Liking a punt I know that the probabilities are way askew, we aren't even favorites in 60% of the games!
We have two interstate
We have to overcome a massive historical hurdle on a few fronts.
There is just so much that is unlikely that has to happen.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Does anybody really believe that this infraction thing will happen?
I don't.

not this year - IMUO we have another 1-3 years of appeals to work through

FWIW its a smart strategy. Biggest liability EFC face is legal action from the players. One way this can be mitigated is ensuring they don't suffer a suspension. If the lawyers can drag this out for another 3 years, how many of the 34 will still be on an AFL list? Between retirement and natural delistings, a fair number will be gone

 

[Frank Grimes]

I just had a crack at the ladder predictor.... try it yourself...

If we win every game and get big % against GWS and St Kilda, we can still make the 8..

Comes down to Round 23 vs Swans.... last night showed we are back in form and hungry...

on current from... we will beat GWS, Saints, Bombers and Adelaide...

The bolded part to the one of the many reasons why making the finals won't happen. They only possible way is if the Swans "gift" us the game by resting several key players in preparation for finals.

It's still a 100:1 chance.

 

[Frank Grimes]

We are no chance

If on round 23 we are looking at "beat Sydney and we are in finals", I will rock up to the SCG in a tiger onesie, hello kitty face paint, and wearing a t-shirt that says "Buddy's Fluffer"

If it happens, send us a picture lol.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

not this year - IMUO we have another 1-3 years of appeals to work through

FWIW its a smart strategy. Biggest liability EFC face is legal action from the players. One way this can be mitigated is ensuring they don't suffer a suspension. If the lawyers can drag this out for another 3 years, how many of the 34 will still be on an AFL list? Between retirement and natural delistings, a fair number will be gone

That's exactly what I reckon will happen too.

 

[Reservoir tiger]

The bolded part to the one of the many reasons why making the finals won't happen. They only possible way is if the Swans "gift" us the game by resting several key players in preparation for finals.

It's still a 100:1 chance.

15-1 according to sportsbet

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

15-1 according to sportsbet

Which is exactly why punting is ridiculous.
That's horrendous value, yet we still do it.
I should have been a bookmaker....

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Exactly. Have we got any huge maths heads in here?
Liking a punt I know that the probabilities are way askew, we aren't even favorites in 60% of the games!
We have two interstate
We have to overcome a massive historical hurdle on a few fronts.
There is just so much that is unlikely that has to happen.

the math would be horrible. Not only do we have to win each of the games we play, we are relying on other results to go our way too. With each new requirement, the odds shorten further and further

 

[Final Siren]

the math would be horrible. Not only do we have to win each of the games we play, we are relying on other results to go our way too. With each new requirement, the odds shorten further and further

I did some maths here, based on someone else's assessment of our chances in each match. Came out at 2.6% chance to win five games.

If we did that, we'd have 12 wins and probably a pretty good percentage, including wins against the teams we're trying to dislodge in Essendon and Adelaide. Only three times this century has the 8th placed team had more than 12 wins, and one of those was 2012 when everyone got free wins against GWS & Gold Coast. So it's reasonable to think that would be enough.

We are much better odds (20-25%) of winning 4 out of 5 and falling agonizingly short.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I did some maths here, based on someone else's assessment of our chances in each match. Came out at 2.6% chance to win five games.

If we did that, we'd have 12 wins and probably a pretty good percentage, including wins against the teams we're trying to dislodge in Essendon and Adelaide. Only three times this century has the 8th placed team had more than 12 wins, and one of those was 2012 when everyone got free wins against GWS & Gold Coast. So it's reasonable to think that would be enough.

We are much better odds (20-25%) of winning 4 out of 5 and falling agonizingly short.

now it gets really ugly, factor in the odds of the Pies/Crows/etc losing enough for us to get above them. That 2% fades to black real quick

 

[Final Siren]

now it gets really ugly, factor in the odds of the Pies/Crows/etc losing enough for us to get above them. That 2% fades to black real quick

There are several ways for that to happen, though, since we don't need them all to fail.

If we finish the season on a 9-game winning streak and still miss finals I will take that as confirmation that the universe hates me.

 

[Pasquali]

We are no chance

If on round 23 we are looking at "beat Sydney and we are in finals", I will rock up to the SCG in a tiger onesie, hello kitty face paint, and wearing a t-shirt that says "Buddy's Fluffer"

Take it one week at a time...

This is the ladder next Monday... Starts to look more interesting doesn't it? We play Bombers and then will be simply 1 game out of 8 if we win...