Double Dissolution in 2014 - Realistic chance or all hot air?

Will we see a DD in 2014?

  • Yes, I'm quite confident.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yeah, it is probable.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Maybe / not sure / 50/50.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 'I demand a recount'. 'Okay. One for Martin, two for Martin'.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    28
  • Poll closed .

Smiling Buddha

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It doesn't seem to be talked about often but one of Rudd's biggest blunders was not taking the Liberals to a DD over the CPRS. He had the trigger, would have wiped the floor with the Libs, gotten the legislation through, and avoided the fatal embarrassment of backing down on the 'greatest moral challenge of our time'. Instead he blinked, his opinion polling plunged, Julia got her knife out of the top draw and began sharpening it furiously, and the rest is history.

Abbott doesn't enjoy the spectacular opinion polls that Rudd did after 2007 (and up until early 2010, can you believe it). Personally I think it would be colossal stupidity for the Libs to go to a DD right now. It is always a risky move for a government because of the halved Senate quota, but in 2014 Abbott might struggle to even retain the House.

At the same time, if he backs down now he will look weak and his budget will be shot to s**t. A strategy of blaming Labor for not cutting welfare, services and money to states (i.e. schools and hospitals) for the next two years doesn't strike me as a winner either. For the first time in a long time, the ALP have landed a strategic blow - one which the Libs left open with their jaw in the air.

I'd personally love to see a DD, not only for the lulz but also for the increased representation of minor parties in the Senate but I have a bad feeling Clive is going to do a deal with Abbott.

Thoughts?
 
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Libs would almost certainly lose control of the HoR. We won't see a DD unless there is a massive swing in opinion or if Abbott can find enough mud to throw at Shorten and the unions.

Would love to see a DD, but at the same time I want to see Abbott cop the flak that he dished out at Gillard for three years.

It would be in Clive's best interest to push for a DD- at least seven PUP senators would get in. He may well just ask for a couple of reforms to be pruned then let it pass, but good luck to whoever does the negotiating.

It will be interesting to see how far all parties push back and whether a toothless Tony is still despised for his first attempt at a budget.
 

Todman

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In 1975, Kerr sacked Whitlam because Fraser could guarantee the passing of the supply bills in the upper house.

Shorten cannot guarantee passing the supply bills this time around because from July 1 he doesn't have the balance of power.

Would PUP support the bills with Shorten, after not supporting them with Abbott? I think not. The supply bills would be unaltered because of Liberal majority in the HOR.
 

GuruJane

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I agree an election and DD are on the cards. I was saying so last December. My feeling was if Abbott,Hockey and Cormann could sell a tough reform budget then Abbott could well call an early election as Howard did in 1998. And that if so it would most likely be a DD because the senate would have set the conditions by rejecting budget measures twice.

Nothing has changed my mind. Abbott and Hockey have produced a budget that is wildly unpopular because of the structual reforms in health, family benefits etc that are affecting people across the board. Now we get to see if and how they can sell it. One optimistic for them is the unpublicised, indeed ignored, Neilsen finding that 49 to 47 believed the budget was economically responsible. Narrow majority but nevetheless close to 50%. Another is that post budget even the left wing economics like Gittens were giving a tick on the economics while bewailing the unfairness. Another is that a majority in newspoll did not think the Opposition would have produced a better one.
So as long as Abbott and Hockey remain firm, consistent and unpanicked and use the authroity of government there is a definite chance for early election imo.
 

Footy Smarts

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In 1975, Kerr sacked Whitlam because Fraser could guarantee the passing of the supply bills in the upper house.

Shorten cannot guarantee passing the supply bills this time around because from July 1 he doesn't have the balance of power.

Would PUP support the bills with Shorten, after not supporting them with Abbott? I think not. The supply bills would be unaltered because of Liberal majority in the HOR.

Yes he can. Labor and the coalition split 58 of the 76 seats in the Senate, way more than needed to pass the bills.
 

Floor Pie

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I agree an election and DD are on the cards. I was saying so last December. My feeling was if Abbott,Hockey and Cormann could sell a tough reform budget then Abbott could well call an early election as Howard did in 1998. And that if so it would most likely be a DD because the senate would have set the conditions by rejecting budget measures twice.

Nothing has changed my mind. Abbott and Hockey have produced a budget that is wildly unpopular because of the structual reforms in health, family benefits etc that are affecting people across the board. Now we get to see if and how they can sell it. One optimistic for them is the unpublicised, indeed ignored, Neilsen finding that 49 to 47 believed the budget was economically responsible. Narrow majority but nevetheless close to 50%. Another is that post budget even the left wing economics like Gittens were giving a tick on the economics while bewailing the unfairness. Another is that a majority in newspoll did not think the Opposition would have produced a better one.
So as long as Abbott and Hockey remain firm, consistent and unpanicked and use the authroity of government there is a definite chance for early election imo.
I just started to follow you. Because your satirical comments are just the best! I laugh every time!
 

yibbida

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Once again Abbott talked the talk, but is lying.

He has the trigger if he wants it.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-looms-as-abbott-government-reintroduces-bill

The Abbott government is on track to get its first double dissolution trigger as it reintroduces legislation to scrap the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

The Senate rejected the CEFC abolition bill for the first time on 10 December last year, meaning the requisite three months have passed for a second rejection to create a double dissolution election trigger.

The bill is listed to be reintroduced into the House of Representatives again on Thursday.

But, he has seen the polls.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...lution-election/story-fn59niix-1226921655068#

TONY Abbott has backtracked from suggestions of a double-dissolution election, saying he expects the next election to be held in 2016 as planned.

The Prime Minister today said he was confident the minor parties and Senate independents would “understand” the harsh measures in his government’s first budget and accept his mandate to govern.

“Whenever the next election comes, the people will judge us on what we’ve done and before the election we said we’d stop the boats, we’d scrap the carbon tax, we’d build the roads of the twenty-first century, we’d get the budget back under control,” he said in an appearance on ABC’s Insiders program.

“This is precisely what we are doing and I believe we will be able to say to the people at the next election whenever it is — and I expect it in the middle of 2016 — we’ll be able to say to the people ‘We said this is what we’d do, we’ve carefully, purposefully, methodically done it, now it’s in your hands
 

Todman

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Remember the Senate changes on July 1. They might pass it without to much horsetrading.

Exactly.

Going for a DD before the new senate even sits would be pretty crazy. Not least because the public wouldn't appreciate them calling an election without even trying.



As for if a DD is doable, I think it depends on how the debate/spin goes from here...So far I think they're losing the battle, but if, between now and the new senate sitting, they can get the focus back onto the royal commissions (and by extension, how bad the ALP was) and get their 'tough but necessary' message through, the could still make it work.

Earliest it can come up is August (3 months), with election in October...A lot can change between now and then.
 

yibbida

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Remember the Senate changes on July 1. They might pass it without to much horsetrading.

Well, that is what he was betting on.....

He also said he won't do deals with minor parties, so I don't know how much "horsetrading" will be going on.....

With polls like they are they are more likely to abandon getting it through than go to a DD (hey a multi-million dollar windfall for the government.....)
 

Windhover

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Do they need to try to get it though the new senate twice for a trigger?

Abbott is probably crazy enough to want to go to a DD in 2014. After all he is only good at the 3 word election slogans and has demonstrated beyond argument 3 word slogans are no way to govern. I do not think his minders will let him irrespective of the bullocking his budget cops in the Senate. Voters are sick of Abbott (and never liked him anyway) and an election would be just dandy to get rid of all the b/s of the last 4 years of politics.
 

Windhover

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Well, that is what he was betting on.....

He also said he won't do deals with minor parties, so I don't know how much "horsetrading" will be going on.....

With polls like they are they are more likely to abandon getting it through than go to a DD (hey a multi-million dollar windfall for the government.....)
Why would you rely on anything Abbott said, perhaps particularly about himself? Tony Windsor reminds us Abbott is not a horse-trader but a horse shitter.
 

Footy Smarts

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But if Abbott was sacked, you couldn't expect the coalition to play ball.

Oh so you meant if Abbott was removed. Yeah if that happened there would have to be a new election called immediately since nobody would be able to guarantee supply. But that's absolutely zero chance of happening because Labor will guarantee supply. It's certain policy issues, which can't be joined with supply bills that Labor will block.
 

Todman

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Oh so you meant if Abbott was removed. Yeah if that happened there would have to be a new election called immediately since nobody would be able to guarantee supply. But that's absolutely zero chance of happening because Labor will guarantee supply. It's certain policy issues, which can't be joined with supply bills that Labor will block.
As I said before Labor can't guarantee supply. The Coalition won't side with them , neither will the conservative senators, DLP, LDP, there is no guarantee the Greens will vote will Labor either.
 
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Libs would almost certainly lose control of the HoR. We won't see a DD unless there is a massive swing in opinion or if Abbott can find enough mud to throw at Shorten and the unions.

Would love to see a DD, but at the same time I want to see Abbott cop the flak that he dished out at Gillard for three years.

It would be in Clive's best interest to push for a DD- at least seven PUP senators would get in. He may well just ask for a couple of reforms to be pruned then let it pass, but good luck to whoever does the negotiating.


It will be interesting to see how far all parties push back and whether a toothless Tony is still despised for his first attempt at a budget.
Palmer also wants the Carbon and mining taxes abolished. A DD would put Labor in charge, where there would be no chance in hell of those repulsions.
 
I believe that Labor has said it wouldn't block supply.
Option for Libs is to negotiate on certain policies - don't think that changes on 1 July will help them that much as PUP, Greens and Labor agree on at least three points, not sure what the others will do.
 

ralphmalph

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My out there prediction: he'll pledge to restrict or outright ban medicare funding of abortions, giving Day, Madigan and Leyonhjelm a collective erection, before weaselling his way out of it Juliar-style.

Then it's just a matter of buying off Clive.
 
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