Draft picks - 1 Vs 7 & 10

[makethat2]

Yep IF that rumor is true something must be drastically wrong with Pettracca or then again we've all seen the ridiculous money and contract lengths thrown at key forwards so McCartin at second choice is still fine.

I've heard McCartin has been described as a "once in a generation" player.

 

[ManOfClay]

I've heard McCartin has been described as a "once in a generation" player.

He certainly will be if St Kilda draft him. According to certain supporters anyway

 

[ManOfClay]

These rumours are getting louder.

Paging Adam H - what will you do if St Kilda let this once in a generation player slip

 

[Adam H]

These rumours are getting louder.

Paging Adam H - what will you do if St Kilda let this once in a generation player slip

Unlike yourself that jumped off Liam Jones as soon he jumped ship I will stand by the fact that Pettracca will be a gun. But if the club decides on McCartin I can totally see why. The last thing you want to be doing is throwing millions of dollars plus your club captain to get a key forward due to not drafting one when you get the chance.

 

[DangerSloane]

Pick 1 > pick 7,

Pick 1 > pick 10.

Therefore, prefer pick 1 IMO.

But Pick 1 < Pick 7 + 10

Looking back through previous drafts it goes like this:

Boyd vs Aish and Freeman - 7+10 wins
Whitfield vs Wines and Daniher - 7+10 wins
Patton vs Haynes and Sumner - 1 wins
Swallow vs Caddy and Gorringe - 1 wins
Scully vs Shepherd and Melksham - Draw - both shiet.
Watts vs Davis and Rich - 7+10 wins

 

[eth-dog]

But Pick 1 < Pick 7 + 10

Looking back through previous drafts it goes like this:

Boyd vs Aish and Freeman - 7+10 wins
Whitfield vs Wines and Daniher - 7+10 wins
Patton vs Haynes and Sumner - 1 wins
Swallow vs Caddy and Gorringe - 1 wins
Scully vs Shepherd and Melksham - Draw - both shiet.
Watts vs Davis and Rich - 7+10 wins

I'd argue Haynes' output has been better than Patton's.

 

[DangerSloane]

I'd argue Haynes' output has been better than Patton's.

If you had to pick the player you wanted to keep tho, now, you'd pick Patton.
Injuries are unfortunate, but given a level playing field, I'd prefer the General.

 

[eth-dog]

If you had to pick the player you wanted to keep tho, now, you'd pick Patton.
Injuries are unfortunate, but given a level playing field, I'd prefer the General.

Possibly. On a level playing field I'd pick Patton but his knees make me say Haynes slightly ahead. He's seriously underrated, one of the best kids at GWS.

 

[DangerSloane]

Possibly. On a level playing field I'd pick Patton but his knees make me say Haynes slightly ahead. He's seriously underrated, one of the best kids at GWS.

Yeh it wasnt by a large margin but the fact that Sumner has shown virtually nothing doenst help the combined cause.

 

[timtamWB]

Unlike yourself that jumped off Liam Jones as soon he jumped ship I will stand by the fact that Pettracca will be a gun. But if the club decides on McCartin I can totally see why. The last thing you want to be doing is throwing millions of dollars plus your club captain to get a key forward due to not drafting one when you get the chance.

Let's just look at some of your quotes over the past few weeks:

Ive seen them at the State champs and yes McCartin is a good player but Pettracca is something special.

Considering he doesn't play for any club yet that's hilarious. Pettracca is easily the highest rated and only a fool would suggest other wise.

Its no different this year Pettracca is the clear number one yet recruiters will roll out the old line how even it is.

He wasnt rated a once in a generation lets not keep dragging up Scully and Watts.

In regards to the Saints possibly taking McCartin instead:

No chance at all. You dont pass on a player like Pettracca.

So tell me, why are you suddenly ok with getting McCartin after saying no chance of passing on Petracca, and you'd be fools to pass on him?

 

[ManOfClay]

St kilda's recruiting department are fools apparently

 

[ManOfClay]

. We dont really need any more key forwards with White Lee and Bruce looking promising in those areas.

Club must really rate those three

 

[Adam H]

St kilda's recruiting department are fools apparently

Pettracca still is the best player in the draft but we drafted for needs and got an outstanding key forward. With one forward in next years draft rated in the 25 in would be stupid not to. Now we have three outstanding young key forwards on the list plus the addition of Membury our forward line is set after Roo retires. We can now target midfielders in the next two trade and draft periods. Great recruiting that won't mean we sell the farm to poach a need that other teams ignore.

 

[ManOfClay]

And the backflips have commenced

 

[Adam H]

And the backflips have commenced

Have they? I still maintain Pettracca is a gun and a one of but can fully understand why we went with the best key forward that many see as either equal or slightly behind him. Next two drafts a midfield based and we can attack that now we are fully loaded with young key quality.

 

[ManOfClay]

Have they? I still maintain Pettracca is a gun and a one of but can fully understand why we went with the best key forward that many see as either equal or slightly behind him. Next two drafts a midfield based and we can attack that now we are fully loaded with young key quality.

You said you don't pass on a player like Petracca yet, when St Kilda did, it's ok?

 

[Adam H]

You said you don't pass on a player like Petracca yet, when St Kilda did, it's ok?

So when do we get the gun key forward to support White and Lee? You of all people should know drafting shambles key forwards doesnt help long term. We now have our spine for ten years set up and can raid next years mid top heavy draft.

 

[ManOfClay]

So when do we get the gun key forward to support White and Lee? .

Not backing either of these guys to be guns? didn't you burn a first round pick on Lee?

 

[Adam H]

Not backing either of these guys to be guns? didn't you burn a first round pick on Lee?

Why cant we have three? White at CHF McCartin at FF and Lee as the third tall. And no we didnt burn a first round pick on Lee burning a first round pick is taking Grant, Cordy or Walsh in the top ten.

 

[The Swert]

But Pick 1 < Pick 7 + 10

Looking back through previous drafts it goes like this:

Boyd vs Aish and Freeman - 7+10 wins
Whitfield vs Wines and Daniher - 7+10 wins
Patton vs Haynes and Sumner - 1 wins
Swallow vs Caddy and Gorringe - 1 wins
Scully vs Shepherd and Melksham - Draw - both shiet.
Watts vs Davis and Rich - 7+10 wins

If you read the thread, I went back through drafts back to 2000 and Pick 1 has proven better in the long term.

Trying to rate guys after 1-2 years is laughable.

 

[DangerSloane]

If you read the thread, I went back through drafts back to 2000 and Pick 1 has proven better in the long term.

Trying to rate guys after 1-2 years is laughable.

Really? I wouldve thought it not that hard to assess.

I dont think you can say that its questionable whether Wines and Daniher will be guns..they already are.

Its completely fair to compare after 2 years. And when injuries are involved I've said so, like with Patton, where I've said Pick 1 wins even though in reality, he's produced far less than 7+10

I'd prefer 7+10 ever year pretty much. If you're a good recruiter you'll get more out of 2 top 10 picks than 1, even if the 1 is a beast.
Remembering every top 10 pick you get means you can drop your worst player off your list.

So for the crows for example, assume we got Petracca.

Petracca + Petrenko OR
Ahern + Cockatoo

I know which I'd rather...

 

[DangerSloane]

This thread lacks some historical analysis.

Year - Pick 1 vs Pick 7 and Pick 10
2000 - Nick Riewoldt vs Laurence Angwin and Jordan McMahon
2001 - Luke Hodge vs David Hale and Sam Power
2002 - Brendan Goddard vs Andrew Mackie and Jason Laycock
2003 - Adam Cooney vs Kane Tenace and Ryley Dunn
2004 - Brett Deledio vs Jordan Lewis and Chris Egan
2005 - Marc Murphy vs Patrick Ryder and Marcus Drum
2006 - Bryce Gibbs vs Joel Selwood and Nathan Brown
2007 - Matthew Kreuzer vs Rhys Palmer and Patrick Dangerfield
2008 - Jack Watts vs Daniel Rich and Phil Davis
2009 - Tom Scully vs Brad Sheppard and Jake Melksham
2010 - David Swallow vs Josh Caddy and Daniel Gorringe

I think Pick 1 wins most of those years.

Id argue that since 2003 in that list, pick 1 wins just once!

Id rather Lewis than Deledio
Id rather Ryder to Murphy
Id rather Selwood to Gibbs
Id rather Dangerfield to Kreuzer
Id rather either over Watts
Id rather Melksham over Scully

Swallow wins hands down.

 

[carnthedons]

Really? I wouldve thought it not that hard to assess.

I dont think you can say that its questionable whether Wines and Daniher will be guns..they already are.

Its completely fair to compare after 2 years. And when injuries are involved I've said so, like with Patton, where I've said Pick 1 wins even though in reality, he's produced far less than 7+10

I'd prefer 7+10 ever year pretty much. If you're a good recruiter you'll get more out of 2 top 10 picks than 1, even if the 1 is a beast.
Remembering every top 10 pick you get means you can drop your worst player off your list.

So for the crows for example, assume we got Petracca.

Petracca + Petrenko OR
Ahern + Cockatoo

I know which I'd rather...

While 2012 is a clear example of 7+10>1 at this stage, Daniher's not a true no.10 draft pick. He would've almost certainly been 1 if he was on the open market.

 

[Adam H]

Id argue that since 2003 in that list, pick 1 wins just once!

Id rather Lewis than Deledio
Id rather Ryder to Murphy
Id rather Selwood to Gibbs
Id rather Dangerfield to Kreuzer
Id rather either over Watts
Id rather Melksham over Scully

Swallow wins hands down.

Surely the point is that all the players you rate higher where available at Pick one. If the recruiters didnt draft them thats the problem.

 

[Slax]

Very dependent on what the draft is like and what you need.

St Kilda this year needed a key forward and when there are good ones out there they won't last to pick 7, if you need only mids then 7 & 10 will serve you better.