Preview ELIMINATION FINAL: RICHMOND V CARLTON - MCG - SUNDAY 8 SEPTEMBER 2013 - Foley & White Out

[Wacky Tiger]

I reckon Ty Vickerys game will go a long way towards deciding sundays match. Need a 3-4 goals and Ty to be a big force up forward.

 

[TigerTime88]

I actually think Aaron Edwards will provide some headaches for them.

 

[Wacky Tiger]

I actually think Aaron Edwards will provide some headaches for them.

Yeah hadnt thought about him. Will need to be all guns blazing.

 

[RichoLedio]

RichoLedio you should speak to KeilorUnder9s

Unfortunately it's too late for me between uni and work, thank you anyway though

 

[Greggy]

Nah if we lose we are 7th and loser of 6th v 7th would be 8th.

So if a team wins the flag from 8th, do they finish 1st and get pick 18 in the draft?

 

[HARKER]

So if a team wins the flag from 8th, do they finish 1st and get pick 18 in the draft?

Of course, although this year that pick is 17 at this stage with Adelaide and Essendon out of the picture and GWS igniting their compo which sits at #10.

 

[filandia2nuts]

Dear Richmond,

Please rip Carlton a new a-hole.

Kind Regards,

Every non-Carlton supporter.

 

[Morro]

Dear Richmond,

Please rip Carlton a new a-hole.

Kind Regards,

Every non-Carlton supporter.

Haha I was talking to a few mates today about this and we agreed there wouldn't be a neutral supporter on earth that would want Carlton to win.

 

[HARKER]

Haha I was talking to a few mates today and there wouldn't be a neutral supporter on earth that would want Carlton to win.

That's just not true.

I heard of this guy that lives 400 kms out of Alice Springs that would be happy for Carlton to do so. Keep it real Morro.

 

[Morro]

That's just not true.

I heard of this guy that lives 400 kms out of Alice Springs that would be happy for Carlton to do so. Keep it real Morro.

Proof or I call BS.

 

[HARKER]

Proof or I call BS.

I said I heard of him. Doesn't mean he necessarily exists.

 

[_RT_]

AFL Insider tonight confirmed my long held belief that Carlton are the biggest bunch of front running downhill skiers in the business. They showed vision of Carlton players running ahead of the ball hoping that their team mates would win possession and they could then capitalise on it by being in open space. If they do it against us on Sunday then there will be plenty more of the pain that they suffered in the first quarter of round 21.

 

[HARKER]

AFL Insider tonight confirmed my long held belief that Carlton are the biggest bunch of front running downhill skiers in the business. They showed vision of Carlton players running ahead of the ball hoping that their team mates would win possession and they could then capitalise on it by being in open space. If they do it against us on Sunday then there will be plenty more of the pain that they suffered in the first quarter of round 21.

What exactly did Carlton do in the second quarter?

Sort of makes sense they may be more likely to employ those tactics than the one they produced in the first. Crazy notion I know but.................

 

[Bird Man]

Have lids as HB as he is just too good there and his use of the ball is key.

Have Ellis and S. Edwards rotate forward and middle

my finals 22

FB Grimes, Rance , Chaplin
HB Houli, Newman, Morris
C Grigg, Cotchin, Lids
HF Martin, A. Edwards, S Edwards
FF Vickery, Jack, King
R Conca, Maric Jackson
Int Ellis, Vlas, Foley Sub: Tuck

 

[_RT_]

What exactly did Carlton do in the second quarter?

Sort of makes sense they may be more likely to employ those tactics than the one they produced in the first. Crazy notion I know but.................

They did the same as they did against Port in the last quarter on Saturday and that is gambled on their team mates again winning the ball. Don't expect us to be as slack as we were back in round 21 in terms of working back defensively.

 

[HARKER]

FF Vickery, Jack, King, Off

The forward line looks about right. This isn't the banter thread is it?

 

[Conca Truck]

I hope Carlton bring Bootsma back this week

 

[Equus]

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When and Where​

Sunday 8 September 2014, 3:40pm (AEST) bounce down at the MCG

TV​

7 3:00pm (AEST) Live / Foxtel 3:00pm (AEST) Live​

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Radio​

Triple M​

SEN​

3AW​

AFL Grandstand​

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Odds:​

Richmond - $1.55 / Carlton $2.55
(TAB)

Head To Head ​

Played: 211 Richmond: 85 Carlton: 124

Clashes This Season
Round 1 Richmond 14-22-106 def Carlton 17-17-101
Round 21 Carlton 16-10-106 def Richmond 14-12-96​

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SEASON REVIEW​

by David3030​

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2013 began as a season hope and optimism for all Richmond supporters. Dimma at the family day stating "we are not waiting for a team to drop out of the eight, we are going to kick them out" or words to that effect, had a lot of us being very optimistic about this season but not wanting to get too carried away in case it turned out like 28 others have since 1982.

As the season progressed we always remained level or ahead of the win / loss ratio, something that had not happened since 2001. optimism kept growing as each scalp was claimed.

We had some inspiring wins (Hawthorn in Round 19 and West Coast in Perth in Round 10) to name a couple. Some solo inspirational performances and acts (Ellis with 40 possessions and only in his second year! Who will forget Luke McGuane's match winning tackle against Carlton in the final seconds of Round 1?

The best part of 2013 in my opinion has been so many players have shown improvement. Brandon Ellis improved out of sight compared to 2012, Steve Morris became the best lock down defender in the AFL. An absolute crime he did not make the AA top 40 this year. Our defence allowed 300 fewer points than last year due to a very settled back 6

Our biggest improvement though came from the most maligned player in Big Footy history (at least on the Richmond board) by the name of Dan Jackson. His improvement level was so vast he is a short priced favourite to win the JDM.

So excellent recruitment of free agents Troy Chaplin and Chris Knights brought some solidity to our defence and extra midfield depth and goal kicking power. Our drafting of Flossy and the Macs (Bean, Donough and Intosh) all look likely to pay dividends from as early as 2014 too.

Our on-field 2013 success has also been mirrored by our off-field successes to. The recruitment of Mark 'Choco' Williams has been nothing short of a master stroke by the club. With recent events looking like he will still be with us in 2014 . The resigning to long term deals of co-major sponsors Bingle and Jeep, both on $1 million or more per season shows we are no longer struggling to make ends meet.

As Round 23 has now finished, our OLD season is completed and we commence a season where we belong. With only 4 players (if the media are correct that is) on our list with finals experience, we are definitely playing catch-up but our development is continuing to rise as we won 4 and a half more games than 2012. With luck and continual progression our improvement is not likely to plateau or fall back in the short term.​

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KEY MATCH-UPS​

BY _RT_​

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Riewoldt v Jamison
Don't expect Mick to make the same mistake and play Bootsma on Jack this time around. Without doubt Jack is going to get Jamison. In the 8 games that Jamison and Riewoldt have played against each other Jack has only averaged 1.4 goals a game. In the last 3 games Jamison has managed to hold Jack goalless when he has been manned up on him. Round 21 this year Jack got 2 on Bootsma early before Jamison moved onto him and put and end to Jacks goal kicking. This week it's important that Jack stays involved even if he doesn't kick goals.​

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Maric v Warnock/Kreuzer
If as expected Stephenson goes out it's going to be a big ask for Maric to go up against both Warnock and Kreuzer. Maric will get some help from Vickery but for the most part will be asked to carry the load against these 2 and if he can at least breakeven against them we'll be in good shape. Last week against Port Warnock and Kreuzer worked over Lobbe & Renouf and eventually got on top and gave the likes of Murphy & Gibbs a chance to win clearances and get the Blues going.​

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Cotchin v Curnow
In round 21 Curnow ran with Cotchin and held him to his lowest disposal total for the year. I get the feeling that Curnow will be sent to Cotchin again, however this time Cotchin will be ready for him and should run him off his legs. This is where he needs the help of his fellow midfielders to create space for him and to ensure that Curnow can't get away with scragging Cotchin at every opportunity.​

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Martin v anyone
Looking at Martins record he has never really dominated against the Blues, with his last game being his worst against them. With that in mind I hope this week is the week Dusty finally rips into Carlton like we know he can do to sides when he is on. Hopefully Dusty gets on his bike and covers the ground rather than just sitting up forward and waiting for things to happen. A Dusty special this week will go a long way towards us winning.​

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Deledio v Gibbs
In round 21 Deledio was arguably our best midfielder, while Gibbs was lauded has having a massive impact in the Blues coming back. Expect them to renew their rivalry again on Sunday and if they do then I expect Deledio to have a big game. In fact I get the feeling that Deledio has been waiting for the big stage of finals to explode and against Gibbs he has the perfect opportunity to do just that.​

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[Equus]

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Chaplin Rance Grimes v Henderson Casboult Waite
This is where the game could be won and lost. If our 3 key backs can win the battle against the Blues forwards then we win simple as that. Last time out it was the marking of Henderson and Casboult that got them back into the game as it gave them confidence to attack the F50 knowing that it would either be marked or brought to ground. It was probably the only time that our backline had been outplayed all year when we've had 3 talls down there.​

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Morris v Garlett/Betts
The last key battle for mine. Morris should be in AA calculations if they are serious about selecting a defensive small defender. Has rarely, if at all, been beaten this year and will no doubt get one of Betts or Garlett on Sunday. If the talls are taken care of then I expect the Blues will be looking for Betts/Garlett to try and spark them and this is where Morris will come into his own. He won't be concerned if the Blues try to isolate him deep and will no doubt make Betts/Garlett earn anything they do get.​

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GAMEPLAY ANALYSIS ​

BY Grockadoc​

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Where Richmond can win the game:

First and foremost, Richmonc can get a hold of Carlton in the clearances. In particularly, scores from stoppages, which the Tigers are ranked first outright in the AFL. Their midfielders have hit the scoreboard hard this year. Dustin Martin, Daniel Jackson, Reece Conca, Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio, Brandon Ellis and Matthew White have a combined total of 90 goals kicked between them for the season. These six players have kicked 28.93% of Richmond's total goals (311) this season, showing how potent the Richmond midfielders are around goals and goalside of contests.

The Tigers are also ranked 2nd in the AFL for denying the opposition the football, with the tigers averaging 26.3 disposals per game more than the opposition. With the Tigers content to take the easy option, and chip around, it restricts the damage the Blues can do to the Tigers, especially form players such as Kade Simpson, Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy, who's footskills can carve the opposition up if given time and space. By denying the Blues the football, it means that the Tigers can control the tempo of the game, and restrict Carlton from driving into their forward fifty to their key forwards, who are capable of taking contested marks, in Casboult and Henderson.

The Tigers can also get a hold of Carlton by exploiting the Blues own gameplan, or rather, Mick malthouse's gameplan. The Blues have a penchant for taking the ball down the boundary line, in typical Malthouse fashion. With Alex Rance and Troy Chaplin both in the top 10 for intercept marks in the AFL, and one of Ivan Maric and Tyrone Vickery floating back on ocassion, if Carlton do go down the boundary, and these players take an intercept mark, it leaves Carlton exposed through the corridor and on the other side of the ground. Given the Tigers prefer to slingshot out wide and get the switch kick into space from the spread, any intercept mark taken from kicking near the boundary line will leave Carlton extremely exposed, and susceptible to a rebounding shot at goal, due to the Tigers work rate.

Carlton's backline can also be exposed by quick ball movement and rebounding. This was evident in our clash a few weeks ago, in the first quarter where we spread from the contest, and ran and carried the ball, and managed to convert that to scoreboard damage, as the Blues defence crumbled under the pressure. With players such as Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin, Brandon Ellis, Reece Conca and Bachar Houli all capable of breaking the lines, if these players can get a run on, and carry the ball, the Tigers will be able to impact heavily on the scoreboard.


Where Carlton can win the game:

For the Blues, the most glaring deficiency they can get ahold of the Tigers in is their small forwards. Steven Morris is the only player on the Tigers list who has shown he can shut down the opposition's most dangerous forwards, it leaves a quandry for the Tigers as to who exactly will man up the others. Morris will most likely take Betts or Garlett, and Dylan Grimes is most suited to take the other. That still leaves Chris Yarran and the dangerous Troy Menzel. Menzel in particular is the type of player that Richmond seems to struggle to contain. He is that awkward in between height. Classed as a medium forward, he is a combination of small forward and key forward, in that he is great at ground level, quick, skillful and great at reading the contest and can crumb accordingly, but he is also a terrific mark, both contested and on the lead. Ricky Petterd or Chris Newman is most likely to take Menzel, and if he starts getting a hold of the game, Dylan Grimes will most likely be switched.

The Tigers have also been susceptible, particularly in recent weeks, to quick rebounding. The Tigers have a fixation for bombing the ball long into their forwards, and then pushing up to lock the ball in, however, if the Blues can take an intercept mark and move the ball on quickly, the Tigers can and have been exposed, and it can result in the Blues getting an easy shot at goal, and put the Tigers defenders under the pump.

One of the Tigers biggest strengths is their run and carry. Brandon Ellis dominated the Blues in the first quarter of their last encounter, but the Blues tagged him after the break, and the Tigers run and carry dried up. If the Blues want to fully contain the Tigers damaging midfield, they will need to man up, and maintain body contact on players such as Ellis, Martin, Cotchin and Deledio. If the Tigers cannot take the game on, it restricts the damage they can do, and will go a long way to stopping them kicking a winning score.​

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[Bazzar]

Last time the Tiges were in a final (and against the Blues) Lleyton Hewitt won the US Open. Will history repeat itself?

 

[Groupie_]

Last time the Tiges were in a final (and against the Blues) Lleyton Hewitt won the US Open. Will history repeat itself?

Hewitt will lose at some stage

 

[spark12]

pretty long odds for the blues $2.75 thought they should be more around the $1.90 mark.

 

[Wild Westiger]

Good work, Equus

 

[Equus]

Good work, Equus

Might want to thanks David3030, Grockadoc & _RT_

 

[PUNTROADHAMMER]

1. I'm already shitting myself, and it's still 5 days away!
2. I don't like us being favourites.