Analysis Expectations of top 10 draft picks v later draft picks

It nearly did but even I would of said he would of been a Reach at Pick 14.

This is who I happily would of Picked ahead of Maynard at 14:

  • Leaver
  • Weller
  • Durdin
  • Goddard
  • Langford
  • Laverde
There are plenty of draft watchers who had him as a possibility to go mid teens, so it's not that much of a stretch.
Plenty on here had De Goey as a stretch at 5 (myself included).

Fact is, we know jack s**t compared to pro recruiters Dave, and given the evenness of this past draft up to the mid second round, it's likely teams were recruiting based purely on needs rather than on a best available basis.
 
At the risk of boring you silly I have put together analysis of the above topic with my own interpretations. My interest was sparked by what I see as a wide disparity of what expectations there are for our new recruits. In particular I have thought about the likelihood of say a De Goey v a Maynard getting games in their 1st season purely based on their draft position.

My belief is we should have a real expectation of a top 10 guy making a contribution I his 1st season where there is a pretty low chance a guy around pick 30 will do very much in his 1st or even 2nd season. We should consider this when assessing the progress of our recruits and not get disappointed if it is not to season 3, 4 or 5 before a Maynard type makes a real contribution to our best 22. That is on the assumption they make it at all which is no given. In comparison it is an expectation to automatically expect this from a top 10 draft choice.

So I have gone back through the last 5 drafts, 2009 - 2013, and assessed how many games each season the top 10 picks have played compared to picks 26-35 which groups around the Maynard pick (30). One tweak I did was take Luke Ball out of 2009 and add pick 36 instead (Houghton) as Ball was the only player of these 100 who wasn't a new recruit.

The table below is what I came up with. Each draft is listed and the 2 numbers represented the total games of the top10 picks v the picks 26-35, so

2013 Draft. 122 games v 65 games in 1st season.

2012 Draft. 138 v 14 (1)* 1st season, 284 v 61 after 2nd season

2011 Draft. 88 v 16 (1st), 189 v 82 (2nd), 339 v 155 (3rd)

2010 Draft.
128 v 75 (1st), 286 v 192 (2nd), 447 v 295 (3rd), 634 v 396

2009 Draft. 145 v 38 (1st), 260 v 95 (2nd), 398 v 149 (3rd), 546 v 233 (4th), 672 v 311 (5th)

The most obvious and expected confirmation here is that the top 10 are just better players so year in year out they play far more games than their 26-35 counterparts. No surprise. If you look at the individual players you will also quickly surmise that the quality of their games is also far greater. The top kids by and large turn into guns. I will try and put up the individual data in a post below to illustrate that ( put it here and it gets to busy).

What I am more interested and I believe the data shows this is the discrepancy between the groups is most marked in year 1. So the De Goey group can be expected on this data to knock out 10 games + on average in their 1st year as a group with many players playing most games. In comparison the 26-35 players have a much lesser and more mixed output in their 1st year.

At the extreme of that is the 2012 group who had 138 v 14 games. I have also added a * there as if you take out Viney on the basis he was a F/Sand add pick 25 instead that group of 10 players only had 1 game between them in their 1st season and only 30 games in total for their 1st 2

In each of the 26-35 group there were a few exceptions who played a lot of footy early but most played very little in their 1st seasons. In contrast , unless injury intervened, the top kids almost routinely played most games by season 2

Why have I put this up? Two reasons. One is to emphasise the time kids like Maynard need to be accorded compared to a De Goey to give them a fair chance of making it. A few might slot into a senior team like Tom Langdon did this year and be a 18-22 player but most will need a significant VFL apprenticeship. Further if a player from this group does make the grade it is much more likely they will be a Macaffer than a Hodge.

2nd point this data illustrates is that our soldiers, Caff, Blair, Sack and Toovs remain very important players potentially in our next successful team. It's tough to become as good an AFL player as these guys are even though they appear journeymen to many. Their contributions to their team often go unrecognised by the masses and allow supporters too easily to write them off as superfluous to our ne tilt at success. "Our shiny new toys" in Maynard, Goodyear et al likely face a number of years journey if they are to displace our soldiers from their place in the 22. Don't discount that any of these 4 soldiers won't retire 2 x Collingwood premiership players.

The only thing I would add to your post is that top ten players are usually given more time to make it than players lower in the draft. If De Goey and Maynard fail to make an impression in the next two years it will be Maynard that will get the chop first.
 

Horaceg

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 29, 2014
7,990
9,706
Sydney
AFL Club
Collingwood
The only thing I would add to your post is that top ten players are usually given more time to make it than players lower in the draft. If De Goey and Maynard fail to make an impression in the next two years it will be Maynard that will get the chop first.
It was a stroke of good luck or good management that Collingwood persisted with Dane Swan, never looked much as a high draft pick but kept with him and we know the end result.

There were four others ahead of him, none made it to 50 games, McGough played 40 odd.
 
It was a stroke of good luck or good management that Collingwood persisted with Dane Swan, never looked much as a high draft pick but kept with him and we know the end result.

Thank god we did.
 

Trickster

Cancelled
Jul 27, 2014
2,076
2,229
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
New Orleans Saints
It was a stroke of good luck or good management that Collingwood persisted with Dane Swan, never looked much as a high draft pick but kept with him and we know the end result.

There were four others ahead of him, none made it to 50 games, McGough played 40 odd.
From memory he was a back pocket or half back until he pulled his finger out and started training with Johnno to get his fitness up.

Given his misdemeanours, in today's age he most likely wouldn't have been on a list. And if I'm not mistaken lists may have been a bit bigger back then which may have saved him.

The other 3 players ahead of him (you got me intrigued!) were Richard Cole, Tom Davidson and McGough.

Looking at that draft, how's this for a hit list from Geelong... James Bartel (8), James Kelly (17) and Steve Johnson (24). Throw in Gary Ablett as a fs at 40 and it's almost hands down the best return from a draft. Not in your wildest dreams can you anticipate that. So while it's referred to as the Hodge, Ball, Judd super draft, there were additional superstars further down!
 

Horaceg

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 29, 2014
7,990
9,706
Sydney
AFL Club
Collingwood
From memory he was a back pocket or half back until he pulled his finger out and started training with Johnno to get his fitness up.

Given his misdemeanours, in today's age he most likely wouldn't have been on a list. And if I'm not mistaken lists may have been a bit bigger back then which may have saved him.

The other 3 players ahead of him (you got me intrigued!) were Richard Cole, Tom Davidson and McGough.

Looking at that draft, how's this for a hit list from Geelong... James Bartel (8), James Kelly (17) and Steve Johnson (24). Throw in Gary Ablett as a fs at 40 and it's almost hands down the best return from a draft. Not in your wildest dreams can you anticipate that. So while it's referred to as the Hodge, Ball, Judd super draft, there were additional superstars further down!
Steve J would have been handy. Just a correction to my previous post, Cole actually played 56 games, McGough 37
 

mike123

Cancelled
30k Posts 10k Posts Pokemon is Life
Sep 13, 2013
31,411
28,203
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Juventus
I agree it’s the Type of player you Draft. If you Draft a Midfielder you expect an Earlier Return on Drafting a Tall player.

I think De Goey might play more Games then Maynard at the Moment. De Goey looked like he Belonged in the NAB Challenge Game and Maynard could not even get Picked for the Game.

Also IF you draft a Mature Age Player you expect them to play lot quicker

My post was before De Goey played in the intraclub and nab challenge but I think your right. I think Maynard will get selected for at least one nab challenge game though and we'll see how he goes then.
 

Markfs

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2008
25,831
20,669
Fremantle
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Sydney Sweeney's Shaving Team...
At the risk of boring you silly I have put together analysis of the above topic with my own interpretations. My interest was sparked by what I see as a wide disparity of what expectations there are for our new recruits. In particular I have thought about the likelihood of say a De Goey v a Maynard getting games in their 1st season purely based on their draft position.

My belief is we should have a real expectation of a top 10 guy making a contribution I his 1st season where there is a pretty low chance a guy around pick 30 will do very much in his 1st or even 2nd season. We should consider this when assessing the progress of our recruits and not get disappointed if it is not to season 3, 4 or 5 before a Maynard type makes a real contribution to our best 22. That is on the assumption they make it at all which is no given. In comparison it is an expectation to automatically expect this from a top 10 draft choice.

So I have gone back through the last 5 drafts, 2009 - 2013, and assessed how many games each season the top 10 picks have played compared to picks 26-35 which groups around the Maynard pick (30). One tweak I did was take Luke Ball out of 2009 and add pick 36 instead (Houghton) as Ball was the only player of these 100 who wasn't a new recruit.

The table below is what I came up with. Each draft is listed and the 2 numbers represented the total games of the top10 picks v the picks 26-35, so

2013 Draft. 122 games v 65 games in 1st season.

2012 Draft. 138 v 14 (1)* 1st season, 284 v 61 after 2nd season

2011 Draft. 88 v 16 (1st), 189 v 82 (2nd), 339 v 155 (3rd)

2010 Draft.
128 v 75 (1st), 286 v 192 (2nd), 447 v 295 (3rd), 634 v 396

2009 Draft. 145 v 38 (1st), 260 v 95 (2nd), 398 v 149 (3rd), 546 v 233 (4th), 672 v 311 (5th)

The most obvious and expected confirmation here is that the top 10 are just better players so year in year out they play far more games than their 26-35 counterparts. No surprise. If you look at the individual players you will also quickly surmise that the quality of their games is also far greater. The top kids by and large turn into guns. I will try and put up the individual data in a post below to illustrate that ( put it here and it gets to busy).

What I am more interested and I believe the data shows this is the discrepancy between the groups is most marked in year 1. So the De Goey group can be expected on this data to knock out 10 games + on average in their 1st year as a group with many players playing most games. In comparison the 26-35 players have a much lesser and more mixed output in their 1st year.

At the extreme of that is the 2012 group who had 138 v 14 games. I have also added a * there as if you take out Viney on the basis he was a F/Sand add pick 25 instead that group of 10 players only had 1 game between them in their 1st season and only 30 games in total for their 1st 2

In each of the 26-35 group there were a few exceptions who played a lot of footy early but most played very little in their 1st seasons. In contrast , unless injury intervened, the top kids almost routinely played most games by season 2

Why have I put this up? Two reasons. One is to emphasise the time kids like Maynard need to be accorded compared to a De Goey to give them a fair chance of making it. A few might slot into a senior team like Tom Langdon did this year and be a 18-22 player but most will need a significant VFL apprenticeship. Further if a player from this group does make the grade it is much more likely they will be a Macaffer than a Hodge.

2nd point this data illustrates is that our soldiers, Caff, Blair, Sack and Toovs remain very important players potentially in our next successful team. It's tough to become as good an AFL player as these guys are even though they appear journeymen to many. Their contributions to their team often go unrecognised by the masses and allow supporters too easily to write them off as superfluous to our ne tilt at success. "Our shiny new toys" in Maynard, Goodyear et al likely face a number of years journey if they are to displace our soldiers from their place in the 22. Don't discount that any of these 4 soldiers won't retire 2 x Collingwood premiership players.

I like a man who tries to prove his point but I think we knew this before all the maths. Players later in the draft not only take longer to establish themselves in the seniors, but also a lot of them never make it. Chances are neither maynard nor goodyear plays 100 games. While our recruiting people are pretty good, their success rate goes down after the 2nd and 3rd rounds. We even have had a few duds in the first round over the last decade.
 
I like a man who tries to prove his point but I think we knew this before all the maths. Players later in the draft not only take longer to establish themselves in the seniors, but also a lot of them never make it. Chances are neither maynard nor goodyear plays 100 games. While our recruiting people are pretty good, their success rate goes down after the 2nd and 3rd rounds. We even have had a few duds in the first round over the last decade.

I don't recall drafting any duds in the first round of the last 10 drafts... The 10 before that sure... But completely different personnel doing the recruiting.
 
Last edited:

Markfs

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2008
25,831
20,669
Fremantle
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Sydney Sweeney's Shaving Team...
I don't recall drafting any duds in the last 10 drafts... The 10 before that sure... But completely different personnel.

chris egan 2004....ryan cook 2005....toby thoolen......jarrad blight....luke rounds....daniel farmer....kirk ugle...

to name a few...
 

Markfs

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2008
25,831
20,669
Fremantle
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Sydney Sweeney's Shaving Team...
Sorry, forgot to add 'in the first round', and counting back 10 drafts takes us to 2005.

you missed my point. I was saying that we would be lucky if both Maynard and Goodyear were to establish themselves. I said that the success rate of picking good players goes down after the first round....thats the nature of the draft... it's harder to pick "winners" in the fourth round than it is in the third round etc.

As for first round draft picks, you would expect them to get a regular game. Chris Egan and Danny Roach were a long time ago, but there was a period after the Thomas/Pendlebury choices when we had very few first round picks because we were swapping them for ruckmen. The high draft picks of recent years haven't had time to show how good they will be...scharenberg...brody...ben and tim...it looks promising but you cant be sure. One thing is for sure.... they have a better chance than Adam Oxley or ramsey or marsh. Another obvious point is that first rounders can have a varying impact. Compare Pendles to Nathan Brown...the point that I'm making here is that there are no certainties...no lock-ins
 
Jul 13, 2007
1,266
1,340
Elwood
AFL Club
Collingwood
My post was before De Goey played in the intraclub and nab challenge but I think your right. I think Maynard will get selected for at least one nab challenge game though and we'll see how he goes then.
The problem with Maynard is that he has to displace one of Ramsay, Sinclair or Toovey to get a NAB cup game. Toovey only played half a game against Hawthorn so you would think he needs more game time. Ramsay and Sinclair both need game time to push for selection in the first AFL game. So who goes out so Maynard gets a game?
 
Jul 25, 2008
24,065
40,231
The Linc
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Oakland Raiders
For what its worth the one thats going to bite us on the backside is missing out on Langford! Dons got a ripper with that one.

Good luck to them and Langford!

The only play we had on him was if Moore was passed on allowing us to use our second rounder because from where I sit the choice of De Goey is a no brainer.
 
For what its worth the one thats going to bite us on the backside is missing out on Langford! Dons got a ripper with that one.
The only way it will bite us is if Langford turns in to a better player than De Goey. Pretty much impossible to predict something like that at this stage.
 
Sep 17, 2007
27,163
30,391
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Man. U, Chicago Bulls, Ολυμπιακός
I figured most of this should have been obvious/common knowledge?

I mean, they're picked in the Top 10 for a reason. Players like Beams, Langdon, Swan etc are the exception, not the rule. While Top 10s might not always turn out to be superstars, they will generally play games very quickly.

Again, based only on what I saw in NAB 1 and assuming he backs it up, I'll be bitterly disappointed if I don't see De Geoy in Round 1.
 
Sep 28, 2006
11,415
7,081
QLD
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
LA Lakers,NE Patriots,Liverpool FC
For what its worth the one thats going to bite us on the backside is missing out on Langford! Dons got a ripper with that one.
We'd have to have taken him with pick 5. As others have said, you're basically replacing him for De Goey. Early days but De Goey has shown nothing to suggest I'd want that pick over again.
 

jackcass

Cancelled
10k Posts Magpie Service Medal Collingwood - Josh Daicos Player Sponsor 2021 Collingwood - Tyler Brown Player Sponsor 2020 Collingwood Magpies AFLW - Sarah Rowe Player Sponsor 2019
Oct 8, 2007
25,962
24,230
Bendigo
AFL Club
Collingwood
Taking the OP one step further, there was an interesting article in the Age (I think from memory) early in the preseason suggesting that more recently it's the success of a club with picks 2, 3 & 4 that is a better predictor of premiership success than the success of 1st round picks. Premise being that 1st round picks are more of a known quantity but the capacity to pick up a player or 2 like Swan later in the draft exponentially bolsters your depth quality. Assumes you get the 1st round pick right obviously and that is more likely these days.

Therefore the promise shown by the Langdon, Williams, Ramsay, Sinclair, Seedsman, and Thomas types should rightfully give us great optimism (if they go on with there careers) and we should be watching Maynard, Goodyear, Manteit, Marsh, and Abbott with great enthusiasm.
 
There are plenty of draft watchers who had him as a possibility to go mid teens, so it's not that much of a stretch.
Plenty on here had De Goey as a stretch at 5 (myself included).

Fact is, we know jack s**t compared to pro recruiters Dave, and given the evenness of this past draft up to the mid second round, it's likely teams were recruiting based purely on needs rather than on a best available basis.

Well - Then people on Draft and Trade Board has little info as us.

So in other Words NO ONE HAS A F**KING Clue about it then
 
I don't recall drafting any duds in the first round of the last 10 drafts... The 10 before that sure... But completely different personnel doing the recruiting.

The last 1st Round Real Stuff up was Chris Egan
 
The problem with Maynard is that he has to displace one of Ramsay, Sinclair or Toovey to get a NAB cup game. Toovey only played half a game against Hawthorn so you would think he needs more game time. Ramsay and Sinclair both need game time to push for selection in the first AFL game. So who goes out so Maynard gets a game?

I rate Maynard higher then Sinclair and Ramsey. I say they give Sinclair or Ramsey a Break and use Maynard as most likely a Sub
 
I rate Maynard higher then Sinclair and Ramsey. I say they give Sinclair or Ramsey a Break and use Maynard as most likely a Sub

Surely we need to wait until Maynard actually plays a senior game before rating him higher than Sinclair?
 
Back