Experiences with tipping/ratings services

[Tassieboy]

Almost every punter under 40 would have some idea about the growing phenomenon of 'tipping' services for both horse racing and sports. As anyone with some idea about gambling would know, it is incredibly difficult to sustain any sort of long-term edge over the bookies; if you do, they'll likely restrict or ban you anyhow. With hundreds of these services about across the web and on twitter the majority are effectively fraudulent and come and go, but a small minority in Australia - probably under 10 - are run or produced by professionals in their specific field.

One notable punter who follows international tipping services, Steve from Daily 25, exposed some possible shonky practices from the Trial Files (which would be known by many on here) as can be seen here: http://www.daily25.com/trial-files-horse-racing-genius-dodgy-dealings/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter



Do people on here have any experiences with such services?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

A mate of mines brother pays $500 for a three month package to a tipping service (out of interest i ask my mate to sms me their weekly tips just to see what he is paying for), their tips are extremely hit and miss, some of the bets recommended are mind blowingly terrible.

The past two weeks have yielded 0 winners and 2 placings from 6 selections, most of them under the $4 mark and to make matters worse they instruct members to back these EW which sure wouldn't fill me with any confidence. Eg: Pyrollic EW @ $3 when ran third in the Longeron race 2 starts back.

They had a bit of a purple patch in September where they picked 4 winners from 6 selections (one of them over $10 and two of them over $5) but you would be running at a fair loss since I've been receiving them from my mate.

From what I've seen so far and if you're a punter who studies the form i recommend not wasting your time. Ive joked to my mate to tell his brother that i will provide him with a 3 month package for $250. Seems like a complete waste of time me, giving out $3 shots and telling you to back them EW? Seriously? $500 for 3 months of that?

 

[Hamingja]

The ultimate problem of a tipping service, shonky or not, lies in the comments of the article. If the service is successful and the following gets big as a result, then the weight of money from followers cuts the available odds and in a small percentage game that's the difference between winning over the long term and breaking even or losing. Plus bookies software will mark you as following steam for good measure.

 

[Small Moves]

Good blog, I'll sit down and have a read for a couple of hours.

I was turned off by one of the main tipping services here in Aus because it's so hard to contact them. I've been sending emails, Facebook messages over the past couple of months asking for details, the odd question here and there and have had nothing back. As a relatively new punter (or sports investor as they like to call it) I was seriously considering purchasing a yearly subscription of this particular service to see how much I could get out of it. Their record is brilliant and they have made an absolute killing so far this year, however if something went wrong it just worries me that I'd be unable to contact them and be left out of pocket.

I'll be researching from here through to the 2015 AFL season to see what will be the best solution for me.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

KardiniaPark tipping service is *finally* hitting pay dirt.


The week I stopped tailing him

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Not goina lie, Kynge of Begrem i laughed and i laughed hard.

 

[Hamingja]

Guess who has just showed up to the blog

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

I don't see any use for it. I am more than capable of reading form, speed maps, watching barrier trials. It's always nice to listen to other people's opinion, but if your going to invest your hard earnt cash, at least do the work yourself. "I don't have time" excuse you should find something else to do.

 

[KardiniaPark]

KardiniaPark tipping service is *finally* hitting pay dirt.


The week I stopped tailing him

My day just got brighter.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I don't see any use for it. I am more than capable of reading form, speed maps, watching barrier trials. It's always nice to listen to other people's opinion, but if your going to invest your hard earnt cash, at least do the work yourself. "I don't have time" excuse you should find something else to do.

I couldnt deal with someone else losing my money. Half the joy of punting is being right and finding your own way there IMO.

 

[Lensen]

I couldnt deal with someone else losing my money. Half the joy of punting is very very very very very very occasionally being right and finding your own way there IMO.

efa

 

[KardiniaPark]

efa

My thread has been in front for over 12 months. UMAD

 

[Small Moves]

I don't see any use for it. I am more than capable of reading form, speed maps, watching barrier trials. It's always nice to listen to other people's opinion, but if your going to invest your hard earnt cash, at least do the work yourself. "I don't have time" excuse you should find something else to do.

I think it depends on what sport you're looking at. Horse racing is fair enough, information is freely available and relatively easy to interpret if you have enough knowledge about the sport. As far as ball sports go, some of these services tend to have pretty reliable data models. Betjam and MVP Genius both have a good AFL model which would have taken many years to perfect. The average joe couldn't create something this reliable. Still shouldn't stop people from doing their own research, stats are everywhere. If you don't know the market(s) backwards and you're just blindly taking suggestions from someone for money, why bother?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

lol Brett, if you think AFL Genius has a great model, think again, check out young Brett's results in his bet tracker

 

[Lensen]

Betjams model is terrific especially the part that deletes losing bets and doesn't keep an accurate non arb/promo record

 

[Small Moves]

Betjams model is terrific especially the part that deletes losing bets and doesn't keep an accurate non arb/promo record

I haven't had any experience with them but I have no doubt s**t like this would happen often, especially after reading Steve's blog. Politics aside, the model they use is decent.

 

[Keystone agony]

Who's keen to join mine and foxy_dal 's supercoach and dreamteam service next year?

$99 for the entire football season. I guarantee you will win lots more

 

[KardiniaPark]

Who's keen to join mine and foxy_dal 's supercoach and dreamteam service next year?

$99 for the entire football season. I guarantee you will win lots more

So by 'guarantee' you mean you will refund the $99 if you are not ahead?

 

[Keystone agony]

So by 'guarantee' you mean you will refund the $99 if you are not ahead?

'Guarantee' you will win more than the buying price of $99 thus profit.

 

[KardiniaPark]

'Guarantee' you will win more than the buying price of $99 thus profit.

Saying it is no guarantee though. Why don't you offer money back if you're that confident?

 

[Keystone agony]

Saying it is no guarantee though. Why don't you offer money back if you're that confident?

Something we will look at

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Have seen a few in my time. They're usually snake oil stuff and the results are based on bets made on paper, not for real.

There's one I know of that works - form bloke based in Adelaide, he doesn't have a website, it's only via word of mouth so hasn't gone really wide. He charges fives figures a year for a subscription and emails full fields with margins for all Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide races every Saturday. He hasn't finished behind in years at level stakes, and his record with winners where he nominates a big margin is incredible (they're generally pretty short however).

 

[plays tall 1]

If they're any good they should disclose their past record, clearly and accurately. After all, what better marketing tool? But I don't know of any that do that...

Some mates have subscribed to a few. But all have proven unprofitable over a reasonable period of time.

One of the problems with those they've used is that they're too slow in getting their tips out. I find the most value is usually in the early markets where some bookies just get the price of a horse wrong. By the time the tips come out, the market has already corrected the error.

 

[Nothing]

Saying it is no guarantee though. Why don't you offer money back if you're that confident?

Hard to meet that guarantee when you can't get set on such illiquid markets.

 

[MikeLike]

what about the one on sporting bet? I think it is called Sulls says, never understood why you would take tips from the owner of a betting site that is trying to take your money.