Finals week 1 tips and crowd expectations

[Bobby_]

Hawthorn vs Geelong 11 points 83k

Sydney vs Fremantle 15 points 43k

North Melbourne vs Essendon 14 points 78k

Port Adelaide vs Richmond 17 points 52k

 

[Art Vandelay_]

We didn't struggle to beat Melbourne, we just were playing in 2nd gear all night.
If we can match it and beat the top 4 sides (except Geelong so far) this season, we shouldn't fear Essendon.
They are just as inexperienced as us in finals and their forward line sometimes lack firepower.

We need to tag Watson/Heppell, send Greenwood to one of them.
And play close attention to Goddard and Chapman when they go forward
We also need to pay a lot of attention to Ryder when he goes fwd, he can easily kick a few up there.

We will mix things up by sending Cunnington/Ziebell forward as they have proven to play that position well.
Could sneak under the Bombers defences guard while they are watching Petrie, Thomas, etc.

This how we should line up.

FB - Thompson - Firrito - Mcdonald
HB - Atley - Grima - Wright
C - Wells - Cunnington - Dal Santo
HF - Black - Brown - Wood
FF - Thomas - Petrie - Turner
R - Goldstien - Swallow - Ziebell
Int - Bastinac - Greenwood - Gibson - Adams

We could really cause them issues with this fwd line.
If only Boomer was out there...

I just don't think you'll win. Feel free to quote me on it if you do. I actually am not fussed either way as neither side will beat the loser of Geelong vs Hawthorn

 

[Hawkk]

The Hawthorn Geelong Qualifying Final in 2011 drew 73,000

Three years on, with some neutrals getting a little tired of the same two teams, I don't think it will crack 70,000.

Not sure about this...

In 2011 the Hawks v Cats drew 77k and 64k to their home and away games, this season they drew 80k and 72k to a deadrubber

Are you saying that a deadrubber will draw more than a QF.

That said both can't draw big crowds, all our games are inflated with neutrals and opposition fans

 

[mcgarnacle]

Sydney vs Freo will do well to crack 40k at the Olympic Stadium. It would get that easily at the SCG.

 

[raskolnikov]

Not many tipping the Bombers.

Surprising. I think it's a 50-50 game.

North did finish a game and a half above us so fair enough. It's sweeter when we're not favourites.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 34pts, 76k
Sydney v Fremantle, Homebush, 3pts, 29k - would be much more confident of a Swan win at the SCG
Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, 8pts, 52k - very tempted to tip Richmond, back to back travel might be the kicker
North Melbourne v Essendon, MCG, 44pts, 67k

 

[Captain Awkward]

Hawthorn vs Geelong 6 pts 90K
Still feel that Geelong have Hawthorn's measure despite the round 22 game. That Geelong were able to get close to 6 goals up gives some glimmer of hope to their fans that they are still able to match it with Hawthorn. Geelong showed that it can expose Hawthorn with a high possession, high tempo game plan. Unfortunately it's not possible to sustain that for four quarters. They will probably revert back to their old game plan which has had much success against the Hawks in the past. I just get the feeling that Geelong have something up their sleeve for this one. The game also hinges on whether Tom Hawkins can dominate his opponent(s). My prediction is that he will.

Sydney vs Fremantle 3 pts 50K
The game being at ANZ will be helpful to Fremantle. With that being said, Fremantle also enjoy playing at the SCG, so either way, they have no fears of playing in Sydney. Fremantle are no doubt still feeling the pain of their Grand Final loss last year and it could spur them on to victory in this game. They won an away qualifying final last year so they can obviously do so again this year. Fyfe has had 2 weeks off so he's due to have a huge game. Umpiring could be interesting with a parochial Sydney crowd and Fremantle being on the wrong side of the umpiring spectrum this year.

North Melbourne vs Essendon 20 pts 80K
It's hard to make sense of what will happen in this game as both teams have been inconsistent this year. The first few minutes will tell which of these sides is switched on, if either. Tipping Essendon because I have more faith in their big names: Watson, Goddard, Heppell, Zaharakis stepping up and having big games than I do with the North players. Boomer out is pretty huge. In the heat of the game, Thompson is a pretty good game day coach and will make necessary structural changes if Essendon are looking down. Conversely, I don't have as much faith in Brad Scott and North shutting down a run on from the Dons.

Port Adelaide vs Richmond 52 pts 53K
Nine in a row is an impressive feat but it has to take it's toll both mentally and physically. Their 3-10 start will eventually catch up to them and I think it'll be this week. Ken has Port peaking at the right time and they will go into this game cherry ripe. I can't see Port losing this game in front of their home crowd, their run, carry and belief will help them overrun the Tigers who are probably exhausted by now. The national anthem and "Never Tear Us Apart" rendition should be spine tingling. Matt White or Robbie Gray BOG.

 

[pazza]

Hawthorn by 6 points. Well what an epic way to start the finals. Will be close all night. Expecting 87000.

Sydney by 5 points. Swans would have preferred the SCG for sure. How Sydney's weather is will play a part. It's been so wet up there lately that it could bring both teams even closer together. Expecting 35000.

Essendon by 25 points. North has a history of not playing well at the MCG in recent years, whereas Essendon's performances there over the same period have been generally good. Expecting 75000.

Port Adelaide by 15 points. The party ends here for Richmond. Expecting 50000.

 

[tazaa]

I dont know where this North not playing well at the G s**t comes from.

 

[TheKanga]

Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 34pts, 76k
Sydney v Fremantle, Homebush, 3pts, 29k - would be much more confident of a Swan win at the SCG
Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, 8pts, 52k - very tempted to tip Richmond, back to back travel might be the kicker
North Melbourne v Essendon, MCG, 44pts, 67k

That's the spirit, will be very disappointed if we capitulate in finals to freakin Essendon.

 

[TheKanga]

I dont know where this North not playing well at the G s**t comes from.

I think it's just ignorance, the G actually suits us.
I think playing Essendon on the fast track of Etihad would hinder us.

 

[Alberton_Magpie]

My pre finals nerves has me thinking Richmond will probably win

 

[Hawker55]

Hawthorn vs Geelong 6 pts 90K
Still feel that Geelong have Hawthorn's measure despite the round 22 game. That Geelong were able to get close to 6 goals up gives some glimmer of hope to their fans that they are still able to match it with Hawthorn. Geelong showed that it can expose Hawthorn with a high possession, high tempo game plan. Unfortunately it's not possible to sustain that for four quarters. They will probably revert back to their old game plan which has had much success against the Hawks in the past. I just get the feeling that Geelong have something up their sleeve for this one. The game also hinges on whether Tom Hawkins can dominate his opponent(s). My prediction is that he will.

While I take your point, I'm a bit bemused by the fact that the narrative around that Rd22 game seems to be that we only kicked on when Geelong weren't trying in the second half and the assumption that we didn't try anything ourselves which was why the Cats smashed us the first half. To be honest there were a few things in that first half that were quite strange from our point of view - Clarko's cluster for most of the first quarter - then us playing man on man for most of the 2nd quarter. Most Hawks fans know that Clarkson tends to do his experimenting in the first half where possible - and while Chris Scott is a good coach, based on the last 8 years Clarkson is more likely to be the one who has something up his sleeve.

Either way it'll be a cracker of a game.

 

[Captain Awkward]

While I take your point, I'm a bit bemused by the fact that the narrative around that Rd22 game seems to be that we only kicked on when Geelong weren't trying in the second half and the assumption that we didn't try anything ourselves which was why the Cats smashed us the first half. To be honest there were a few things in that first half that were quite strange from our point of view - Clarko's cluster for most of the first quarter - then us playing man on man for most of the 2nd quarter. Most Hawks fans know that Clarkson tends to do his experimenting in the first half where possible - and while Chris Scott is a good coach, based on the last 8 years Clarkson is more likely to be the one who has something up his sleeve.

Either way it'll be a cracker of a game.

Fair enough mate. I agree with your observations. Both teams held back and this week is obviously going to be a totally different game.

I know that quite a few people are writing Geelong off after Hawthorn beat them comfortably in round 22. I was just trying to make a case for them not to be written off.

I've always been hesitant to tip Hawks in Hawks vs Cats games due to history. FWIW I still have Hawks winning the flag even if they lose this game.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

Hawthorn by 400 points - 80k
Freo by 2 points - 35k
Essendon by 25 points - 60k
Port by 10 points - 50k

 

[PepeSilvia]

Hawthorn vs Geelong 25 points (81,000)

Sydney vs Fremantle 10 points (43,000)

North Melbourne vs Essendon 7 points (71,000)

Port Adelaide vs Richmond 37 points (53,000)

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hawthorn by 35 points (86,000)
Sydney by 26 points (38,000)
Essendon by 6 points (more hope than anything, 74,000)
Port by 12 points (54,000)

 

[Art Vandelay_]

That's the spirit, will be very disappointed if we capitulate in finals to freakin Essendon.

Look, I'll say one thing to you as respectfully as possible. People are allowed to tip against your side, that is the purpose of this thread, to make predictions.

I for one expect Essendon to win, but with north being the Jekyll and Hyde of the comp I also wouldn't be surprised if you won or were walloped. You're a bit like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates.

 

[King Of The Hille]

Geelong
Sydney
Richmond

Can't see North getting within 20 points of us.

 

[simba_]

Wouldn't be surprised if there's under 40k to our game, bad form, Father's Day, royal Adelaide show & some fans may not afford tickets...

such an obvious troll. "wouldn't be surprised if there's under 40k"? this isn't the brisbane game in round 4, whicn drew around 38k. everything else has been 45k or higher I'm pretty sure. as if the royal show and fathers day would stop all the Port people from getting to the first final at the oval.

Hawks to beat Cats
Freo to beat Swans
Port over Richmond
Dons over Roos

 

[TheKanga]

Look, I'll say one thing to you as respectfully as possible. People are allowed to tip against your side, that is the purpose of this thread, to make predictions.

I for one expect Essendon to win, but with north being the Jekyll and Hyde of the comp I also wouldn't be surprised if you won or were walloped. You're a bit like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates.

I don't care what people tip, Essendon can win for sure 50/50 contest if there ever was one.
I mainly just commented because it was a North supporter saying we will get flogged by them.

 

[TheKanga]

Geelong
Sydney
Richmond

Can't see North getting within 20 points of us.

A bit cocky are we?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I don't care what people tip, Essendon can win for sure 50/50 contest if there ever was one.
I mainly just commented because it was a North supporter saying we will get flogged by them.

No shame in tipping against your own side if you truly believe they won't win, I for one didn't expect Geelong to beat Sydney earlier and we were expectedly beaten. Surely you have to agree that the yin and yang football that north have played this year, would make even some north fans a bit susceptible to having doubts?

Even as a neutral fan I have no idea which north will turn up in the EF.

 

[ReaperX]

WEEK 1:

Hawthorn Vs. Geelong - 18 points (83k)
Sydney Vs. Fremantle - 22 points (50k)
North Melbourne Vs. Essendon - 50 points (64k)
Port Adelaide Vs. Richmond - 15 points (52k)

WEEK 2:

Fremantle Vs. Port Adelaide - 14 points (45k)
Geelong Vs. North Melbourne - 21 points (60k)

WEEK 3:

Hawthorn Vs. Fremantle - 30 points (70k)
Sydney Vs. North Melbourne - 58 points (40k)

GRAND FINAL:

Hawthorn Vs. Sydney - <10 points (98k)

Should be a cracker of a finals series!

 

[ReaperX]

People are entitled to their own opinions, and this comment may end up looking silly if we DID get flogged lol, but I honestly have to laugh at all these predictions of Port flogging us by 30-50 points.

I believe they will win the match as well, but they are not a vastly superior team to the Tigers. The fact is, Port massively overachieved earlier in the year, and later on leveled out and finished about where they're at, whilst Richmond were MASSIVE underachievers early in the year, but since then have proven that they're just as good as any of the teams near and around them, including Port themselves.

I'd be very surprised if the margin was greater than 20 points for the majority of the match, to either side.