Strategy Forward Line Potential

[Hello Kitty]

How the team performs through the midfield will have a huge bearing on the goal tallies of our forwards. Only Hawkins i would feel comfortable in saying will be able to plug 40+ regardless, since he is such a monster for opposition defense to stop. Forwards such as McCarthy and Kersten are such unknowns at this point, with sufficient service they could contribute greatly or they could have limited impact at all.

Either way I would love to see a wide spread of goalkickers in 2015, so much harder for the opposition to stop. With some assistance for Tommy up forward I would be happy for him to score less if it meant Clark, Vardy etc. are kicking goals. I felt that sometimes being to Hawkins centric, has been a bit of a downfall in many games over the last couple of years.

Stop the long bomb to Tomahawk, he is much more effective + dangerous when he runs on the lead.

As for Kersten, I think he was a bit shell shocked in his few games. Makes us stop + think how much of a difference there is between VFL + AFL levels.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Namely?
This is really the critical area of concern for me. Too often this year, we were under so much pressure with the ball that delivery into our fwds was below par.

Yes, agree!!! + that's why 10lana makes such a good point -

I 100% agree with you on our forward line problems but I don't think that Bews, Lang or McCarthy are the solution, Unless we draft one this year( this type of player can often play from year one) the only player on our list who fits the mold is Motlop. Having a second key target that we actually pass to will help, the congestion at Hawkins' feet made it very difficult from us to get a crumbing goal. But if we don't fix our ruck issues we won't be able to change our forward structure. I miss the days when we won the centre clearances and could use fast ball movement which makes the forwards job so much easier.

Since 2012, we've virtually had no ruck + we've relied on turnovers, heading towards the oppo's 50 to take possession of the ball + then get it to our forwards. Then we had the situation in this season where all our players would move as the oppo took possession + headed forward, only to find, when we did create a turnover, there was no one in our F50 to kick a goal! + conversely, when Guthrie played in defence, our players would all move as we went forward, yet Guthrie remained in defence, so when we turned over the ball, the oppo team would kick forward, but have no one to kick to + Guthrie would gather the ball + kick long.

 

[Hello Kitty]

The tackle count decrease really stands out for kelly...

But his marking has doubled!!! Doesn't that count for something? I noticed when he began wearing his orange fluro boots, he was always at the bottom of every pack!

 

[poeyonline]

But his marking has doubled!!! Doesn't that count for something? I noticed when he began wearing his orange fluro boots, he was always at the bottom of every pack!

Yes it does, good point. I guess that higlights the change of role to the back, stats are
fun!

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

MURDOCH: Sublime skills, an absolute jet,

You're getting carried away now.

 

[DanA]

The tackle count decrease really stands out for kelly...

Guthrie went from 2.8 tackles to 5.2 while Kelly went from 7.7 to 3.9. IMO the change in respective roles played a bigger part in Kelly's declining tackle numbers rather than any perceived drop in tackling effort from Kelly. Watching Kelly play I still think he's the best tackler in the team, he's just not around the ball as much to get the sort of numbers he used too.

Regarding the forward line I don't agree with many of the OP six players in the forward line. There's loads of others I'd have in contention and many of them I think I'd have over the likes of Kersten and McCarthy. It's also hard to do without doing the whole team.



My guess is:
FB: Rivers Lonergan Thurlow
HB: Mackie Taylor Enright
C: Duncan Selwood Motlop
HF: Stokes Clarke Caddy
FF: Bartel Hawkins Murdoch
R: Stanley Guthrie S.J
Int: Blicavs Kelly GHS
Sub: Hartman
Emg: Jansen Darcy Bews
Dark horses: Luxford, Menzel, Vardy,

For me there's not a lot of controversy in selection. Sub will rotate and quite few people will get a look in but I can't see McCarthy or Kersten forcing there way into become regulars. I'd have them a fair way down the list seeing less than 15 AFL games each.

Top goal scorers:
1) Hawkins: 68
2) Clarke: 34* *from about 17 games.
3) Murdoch: 25
4) Bartel: 25

I'd probably have Stokes, S.J, Selwood, Duncan & Motlop around 20 goals as midfielders. Caddy just shy of the 20 mark.

 

[Jables]

The only guys that actually play as 3rd talls besides Gunston are probably Ambrose and one of Reid or Goodes. Combined Reid and Goodes kicked 2.3 goals per game this year, way too top heavy for no real benefit. Kersten has to improve his endurance/marking heavily to make it next to Clarke or Hawkins, or they would have to get injured to make your 22. God imagine how slow your forward line would be with 3 talls, and 31 and 32 year olds Bartel and Stevie J. Especially if you guys decide to use Stanley as a pinch hitter forward/ruck.

Additionally being 11 kg heavier than Gunston while being 2 years younger and shorter, would mean it is highly unlikely he has the endurance base to be a 3rd tall (I'm not familiar with Kersten, maybe he is an athletic freak I don't know), there is a lot of running and marking all over the ground to make room for multiple talls, and pressure shorter defenders.

Will be interesting to see Geelong play this year.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I 100% agree with you on our forward line problems but I don't think that Bews, Lang or McCarthy are the solution, Unless we draft one this year( this type of player can often play from year one) the only player on our list who fits the mold is Motlop. Having a second key target that we actually pass to will help, the congestion at Hawkins' feet made it very difficult from us to get a crumbing goal. But if we don't fix our ruck issues we won't be able to change our forward structure. I miss the days when we won the centre clearances and could use fast ball movement which makes the forwards job so much easier.

Hopefully with an increase in tall forward targets, that congestion around Hawkins will dissipate and the crumbers will get their chance. Our forwards have to make their opponents accountable, though.

 

[crocsta]

I backed Clark for the Coleman at 100:1 last pre-season. Not my best bet in hindsight but I rated his talent as a goal kicker.

The real issue for cats is how often the ball gets down there, and under what pressure. Our midfield looks weak so it could be tough year for forwards.

We have a handful of good midfielders that can play forward but they will be forced to spend most of time on the ball e.g. Selwood, Caddy, Motlop, Stokes.

 

[THE CAT WRANGLER]

I think we should change rutile of thread to " Forward Potential " instead of potency too many ??????? for mine

 

[Partridge]

I think we should change rutile of thread to " Forward Potential " instead of potency too many ??????? for mine

That's exactly what it is. Potential.

It all might be true, which would be great. But aside from Hawkins there's very little evidence right now.

 

[ChookNorris]

The tackle count decrease really stands out for kelly...

They took Kelly off the ball and turned him into a back pocket, lot less opportunity to tackle

 

[Eddie1994]

I agree in principle, with my cup half full i see a lot of versatility with our foward setup next year. Yes, we need a crumber to stand up but i like what i see. I really thought burbury was worth keeping with our lack of small forwards, but the club must have thought he wasnt getting any better. Question: who are the players on our list we think can become the ultimate goal sneak?

I think we have a few guys capable of playing the small forward role. McCarthy, I think will be very able to fill the Chapman role, something we have been missing dearly, just needs to get the games into him. Murdoch, even being 190cm, is very good below his knees and has quiet good goal sense, is very agile, and can kick the footy, also isn't afraid to take the game on. Motlop, probably suited to a pocket/half forward, but simply put with the lack of speed up the ground I think Mots may be playing further away from goal. Blease, if the deal is done, could be a smokey, very good goal sense, has pace to burn, and will learn roving off the Hawk, and ex-melbourne team mate in Clark. Possibly a Caleb Daniel in the draft could be a solid option.

 

[Daniel McL]

Don't know what the concern is with our clearance winning abilities...

...We have Jansen

"Jansen gets the clearance, kicks it long to the forward line & Clark takes a massive grab, goes back and kicks the goal!"
I could get used to hearing that

Or even better
"Jansen gets the clearance, kicks it long to the forward line & MENZEL WITH A SCREAMER THAT'S MARK OF THE YEAR AND IT'S ONLY HIS FIRST GAME BACK SINCE 2011! Menzel goes back and slots his 5th goal for the game!"

 

[Lana]

Jansen palms it out of the ruck to Jansen who dances around his opponent, he hands if off 1-2 to Jansen and gets the ball back just outside 50 he goes for goal, no wait it's a cleverly disguised pass to Jansen who marks 25 metres out on a 45 degree angle, he sees Jansen unopposed in the goal square and hand passes over the man on the mark, Jansen kick the goal, the ball has was fit so hard that it left the stadium.

 

[Cattery]

I'm unsure why people are giving Kelly such a hard time?

Career Stats from 2002 - 2014
2014 Stats
- Kicks 312 - second
- Marks 113 - first
- Handballs 176 - eighth
- Disposals 488 - third
- Tackles 88 - fifth

You sure about those Flatcat, a quick check sees him at least third for marks behind Hawkins and Taylor.

A pretty impressive set of figures regardless, going by those I reckon he still has a year or two left in him, personally wouldn't mind seeing him back in the guts again.

 

[Partridge]

Stanley is one of the quickest players in the competition. He's up there with Murdoch while McCarthy, Kersten and Motlop are also very fast players.

He's a bit like Blease for me, really haven't seen anything of him. Be good to see him in the pre-season and see how he looks.

 

[Eddie1994]

The only guys that actually play as 3rd talls besides Gunston are probably Ambrose and one of Reid or Goodes. Combined Reid and Goodes kicked 2.3 goals per game this year, way too top heavy for no real benefit. Kersten has to improve his endurance/marking heavily to make it next to Clarke or Hawkins, or they would have to get injured to make your 22. God imagine how slow your forward line would be with 3 talls, and 31 and 32 year olds Bartel and Stevie J. Especially if you guys decide to use Stanley as a pinch hitter forward/ruck.

Additionally being 11 kg heavier than Gunston while being 2 years younger and shorter, would mean it is highly unlikely he has the endurance base to be a 3rd tall (I'm not familiar with Kersten, maybe he is an athletic freak I don't know), there is a lot of running and marking all over the ground to make room for multiple talls, and pressure shorter defenders.

Will be interesting to see Geelong play this year.

They don't play forward for mine, the need of pacey small forwards opens up the chance for younger quicker guys, Blease, McCarthy, Murdoch, Motlop etc, Stanley plays ruck, or up the ground more, and Kersten is quick, does need to work on endurance, but does have a strong set of dukes, and can kick beautifully. Very keen to watch Easter Monday, may it be an absolute belter of a game.

 

[Eddie1994]

Don't know what the concern is with our clearance winning abilities...

...We have Jansen

"Jansen gets the clearance, kicks it long to the forward line & Clark takes a massive grab, goes back and kicks the goal!"
I could get used to hearing that

Or even better
"Jansen gets the clearance, kicks it long to the forward line & MENZEL WITH A SCREAMER THAT'S MARK OF THE YEAR AND IT'S ONLY HIS FIRST GAME BACK SINCE 2011! Menzel goes back and slots his 5th goal for the game!"

Haven't seen a hell of a lot of Jansen, can you give me a quick rundown?
Any players he plays like, and his skill ability? (strong attributes, kicking etc?)

 

[Eddie1994]

He's a bit like Blease for me, really haven't seen anything of him. Be good to see him in the pre-season and see how he looks.

Saints were grooming him to replace Reiwoldt, saw a lot of potential in him, possibly just not at the right system, hence the trade. The loss of Stanley makes me think the Saints may surprise a few and take a KPF at No. 1. Doubt it though as C-PEC is a beast. Stanley is still a bit raw, as most young keys are, but he has the talent, can take a strong grab, isn't afraid of a contest, and can pin point a 60m ball. And we all know he is pacey for a big guy.

 

[Lana]

Haven't seen a hell of a lot of Jansen, can you give me a quick rundown?
Any players he plays like, and his skill ability? (strong attributes, kicking etc?)

He's a big bodied(192cm) Utility, can play inside mid, as a defender and forward. He needs to turn his puppy fat into muscle and build up his tank.

 

[Eddie1994]

He's a big bodied(192cm) Utility, can play inside mid, as a defender and forward. He needs to turn his puppy fat into muscle and build up his tank.

With a solid pre-season, some good form in VFL, realistic chance for AFL this year?
Selwood and Caddy are great inside mids, but adding a 3rd could add the x-factor, and give us that hard-bodied edge we had in 2007-2011.

 

[Partridge]

With a solid pre-season, some good form in VFL, realistic chance for AFL this year?
Selwood and Caddy are great inside mids, but adding a 3rd could add the x-factor, and give us that hard-bodied edge we had in 2007-2011.

Can he play seniors in 2015? I would say absolutely yes. If his form is good enough I can't see why he won't see some senior footy.

How big an impact he'll make is another matter. I'm just happy to see him get games and go from there.

 

[Lana]

With a solid pre-season, some good form in VFL, realistic chance for AFL this year?
Selwood and Caddy are great inside mids, but adding a 3rd could add the x-factor, and give us that hard-bodied edge we had in 2007-2011.

Depending on injury he should get a game or two like Lang did, but despite the hype it's going to take him a while to get his body ready for AFL football, he has a massive frame, he is carrying a lot weight and not the good kind and he is starting from a low base fitness wise. But if he can put it all together he is going to be Kennedy style midfielder.

 

[Eddie1994]

Can he play seniors in 2015? I would say absolutely yes. If his form is good enough I can't see why he won't see some senior footy.

How big an impact he'll make is another matter. I'm just happy to see him get games and go from there.

Obviuosly you don't expect everyone to do an Ollie Wines, but wouldnt it be nice. I think its time to start giving young kids solid game time, resting a few of the older brigade (like we did so well with Ottens in the premiership years.), maybe 5-10 games this year, ofc only in form warrants.